Elections drama is back on our plate. To all the election enthusiasts and onlookers of Indian politics, you will be treated with lots of insights which will be entertaining too. All this coming to us in the next two months and more…
Chief Election Commissioner of India had earlier released the dates for elections of 5 state assemblies. The five states running for elections are the following:
- Assam – 126
- Kerala – 140
- Puducherry – 33 seats
- Tamil Nadu – 234
- West Bengal – 294
Studying each state, their election issues and current situations will be a huge experience. I will be looking at them in the coming days. But today the focus is on the state of ‘Tamil’ and Chennai Super Kings, ‘Tamil Nadu’. Unlike any other state, Tamil politics are much different and unreal sometimes. BJP the party in power at the centre is expected to lose Tamilnadu hands down. Firstly, BJP was and will never be the front running party, at the best BJP will be seen as a supporting party. Why do Tamilians hate BJP and why can’t they accept BJP? What is the biggest reason for BJP not having any presence in Tamil Nadu? Why do people think BJP will be battered along with AIDMK in the coming elections?
In my personal opinion, here are the following reasons:
- Dravidian vs Aryan Theory
- BJP + AIADMK + Sasikala
- DMK’s Powerful Stalin and Rahul’s Congress
During the days of Bharat, the land was categorised by race. Aryans were those living north of the river Godavari and Dravidians are the ones living south of river Godavari. This division took a different turn in modern times.
It was the year 1962, Kamaraj the CM of Tamil Nadu from Congress wanted to make Hindi an official language of communication. This was after the then PM Nehru wanted to make Hindi Rajabasha (national language) to make sure correspondence between North and South India gets easier. The language barrier was creating problems for communication. During those days’ Tamil Nadu education adopted English but in North India, the education would be only in Hindi. So, this was a deep-rooted problem.
Smelling an opportunity the opposition leader, Annadurai projected this as the domination of Aryans on the Dravidians. Together with Periyar, Annadurai started Dravida Kazhagam Movement. It then evolved into a political party called DMK. In the 1967 elections, Congress got defeated and never came back to power. Legendary actor MGR joined DMK supporting Karunanidhi, the next face of DMK. But due to ego issues, both got separated. That gave birth to Hero turned politician MGR’s new party called AIADMK.
All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam was the next big thing in Tamil Politics, a game-changer.
Come, 1977 elections, DMK was challenged by AIADMK and MGR’s AIADMK won the elections. The same result got repeated three times. Congress a party that had lost its power in Tamil Nadu joined hands with MGR and enjoyed power in the 1984 elections. Just before the 1989 elections, MGR dies of a heart attack. This led to a bitter power struggle between Janaki wife of MGR and Jayalalitha. Congress jumped the bus to DMK and DMK came to power. This jumping the ship is not a new thing in Tamil politics BJP and Congress, both have changed their allies in the history of Tamil Politics. Currently, BJP is settled with AIADMK and Congress with DMK.
BJP is powerful at the centre and in all the North Indian states. They are powerful in Karnataka, starting to gather presence in Telangana but Tamil Nadu is a big ask for them. Only because of a strong inner feeling that got created during the DK movement.
Below are the seats won by DMK and AIADMK in the past elections.
- 1991 DMK 7 AIADMK 225
- 1996 DMK 221 AIADMK 4
- 2001 DMK 37 AIADMK 196
- 2006 DMK 163 AIADMK 69
- 2011 DMK 1 AIADMK 203
- 2016 DMK 98 AIADMK 136
Never in the history of Tamil Nadu elections, one party came to power for the second time since 1991. But that was undone in the last elections by ‘Amma’. Jayalalitha was able to win for the second time consecutively. But with a slender margin. Otherwise, it is pretty clear from the results of previous elections that the incumbent party wouldn’t win more than 70 seats. So, in a state where double is a rarity, can a triple win happen? Probability stands at 0.01%.
In the last Mann ki Baat, PM Modi expressed his regret for not learning Tamil. He called it one of the oldest languages in the world. The same was echoed by Amit Shah a few days ago. This is a long-term strategy by BJP, they know winning Tamil Nadu is near to impossible. With Sasikala and EPS still fighting for the control of AIADMK, things are only getting tougher for the saffron party.
With anti-incumbency, the sympathy of Karunanidhi’s death and the Hindi imposition angle, the next CM of Tamil Nadu is coming from DMK and it’ll be MK Stalin. To end it, this won’t just be a defeat to BJP and AIADMK, but this will be the national party’s biggest defeat in terms of seats in the last few elections. Till the time I bring my views on other states, the BJP supporters can take a back seat. Stalin supporters and Rahul’s Congress can rejoice!