Today’s election post is coming from down south, from the state of Tamil Nadu. The state which is the second most industrialised state and a state where traditions are followed religiously. It is also the state which is most close to Mumbai in its love Movies and Cricket. But when it comes to elections this state is completely unpredictable if you are a political pundit. Elections predictions become easier if you are just a Voter but not a Psephologist.
If you are a political analyst, the only way to understand the mood of the people is by interviewing them and when that happens the answers that the People give are very different from what they actually feel. So this lying game by People makes it tougher for predicting the results. Clever Tamilians. Even though it’s tough to predict the winner, results in Tamil Nadu elections are always one sided where the winner takes all.
Though there are 3 regions:
1. Northern Tamil Nadu,
2. Southern Tamil Nadu and
3. Coimbatore Region also called as Chettinad
Every voter from all the regions vote in the same line and that’s there is always sweep from one party in the elections.
Tamil Nadu state has got totally 39 Lok Sabha seats since 1977.
• In 1977 Congress with AIADMK won 34 Seats
• In 1980 Congress with DMK won 37 seats
• In 1984 Congress with AIADMK won 37 seats
• In 1989 Congress continued an alliance with AIADMK winning 38 seats
• In 1991 again the same alliance won 39 seats
• In 1996 the Congress changed partner and choose DMK winning 39 seats
• In 1998 BJP made an entry into Tamil Nadu with AIADMK winning 30 seats
• But in short span in 1999 BJP joined DMK and won 26 seats
• In 2004 Congress allied with DMK to win all 39 seats
• The same alliance continued in 2009 as INC+DMK won 27 seats
• Come 2014 the story changed as AIADMK lead by Jayalalitha 37 seats
Interestingly till the time MGR was alive AIADMK was able to win every election till 1991 and there was no fight given by DMK. But then when Jaya Lalitha took over the party after the demise of MGR, it was a revolving door policy with AIADMK and DMK taking alternative elections.
That’s how the things were when it was a two-party contest. But then we now officially have 3 parties with Kamal Hasan’s new party MNM (Makkal Needhi Maiam). He was desperate to align with Congress. But things didn’t work out and Congress didn’t accept the offer and instead, Congress aligned with DMK. This was a major setback for MNM and the other setback is losing its Cofounder CK Kumar Veil. CK Kumar Veil apparently resigned from MNM citing the internal politics as reason and blaming Kamal Hasan for not having focus. CK Kumar Veil is a big player in Tamil Nadu, an entrepreneur who owns the saloon brand ‘Naturals’.
This is how the things have turned into a 3 cornered contest. It’s pretty clear with the opinion polls and the mood of the people that the party which will sweep this time will be Stalin’s DMK. DMK’s reason for the rise is mainly because of bad leadership by the ruling Government.
Below are the seats sharing pact that was worked out between parties for Elections 2019.
Ø AIADMK is in contesting 20 seats out of 40 that includes Pondicherry, giving away 7 to PMK, 5 to BJP, 4 to Vijaykanth’s DMDK and other small parties are contesting 4
Ø DMK is also contesting 20 seats and gave away 10 seats to Congress, 3 seats to MDMK, CPI will fight for 2 seats and CPM(I) also fighting for 2 seats while others are running for 3 seats.
Finally, this is for the first time that AIADMK and DMK are fighting against each other only in 8 seats. Having said, the winner is likely to be the DMK alliance sweeping around 35 seats and leaving AIADMK-BJP alliance to under 5 seats. This is exactly opposite to what we had seen in Maharashtra on Friday, where BJP-Shiv Sena is likely to sweep winning more than 40 seats and reducing Congress to single digits.
This Friday, I will turn towards the East and focus on the key state of West Bengal which has 42 seats.