Tag Archives: West Bengal

Previewing State of West Bengal Before Elections #LokSabha2019

Build up to Lok Sabha Elections 2019 continues……

Hello Guys, today we are moving towards the east of India and I will be talking about the cultural capital of India West Bengal in today’s post.

West Bengal is the Largest state in eastern part of India, otherwise eastern India has got many small states. West Bengal is the third largest in terms of Seats which is 42 seats. Bengal is known for the sporting culture, literature and the devotion for Lord Durga.

It is also known for one unwanted thing and that’s the Violence. West Bengal is said to be the most violence prone states. Violence here has been a perpetual thing which has got state-sponsored violence. This violence is the bigger reason for the elections in Bengal happening in multiple phases. This time there are 7 phases for West Bengal Elections and in the last elections in the year 2014, it was in 5 phases.

Fact Check: West Bengal has got total living population of 9.1 cr out of which 6.55 crore are registered voters. Being the cultural capital the people of West Bengal has also got the tag of one of the highest voter turnout state in the country. In 2014 the voter turnout was as high as 82% which is expected to increase this time.

Historically when we look at West Bengal politics, like any other state Congress rules the state for 20 years from 1951 to 1971. It was all Congress domination but things changed and from 1971-2004 it was the Communist Party which dominated the state. This rule of communist has played a huge role in West Bengal and few people regret voting CPI to power. The gigantic run of CPI ended as the mood of the people changed completely after no of years of rule. It was all TMC from then leady by Mamata Banerjee. TMC is ruling since 2009 and TMC always look comfortable in West Bengal.

It was way back in 1998 that BJP won its first seat and that came from Darjeeling.

BJP from the last twenty years has won around 1-2 seats every election. But this time BJP is doing everything to increase their tally from 2 to 10. Not to forget people here don’t change instantly and they are all fixed to that particular party. That will also mean that the people are voting for the same party, which means there is no way a change in the behaviour of the voters. The advantage though is that the batting second also loses the match.

Let’s look at the Regions: 
1. Darjeeling 
2. Malda region weak BJP 
3. Hugli region strong TMC (30 seats) 
4. Asansol region BJP picking up

Out of the available 42 seats, they 8-10 Expected to come from 
1. Darjeeling 2 
2. Malda nothing 
3. Hugli expecting from Kolkata 4-5 seats 
4. Asansol 2-3 seats

With Bengal, we have so far covered 130 seats randomly in the states of Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal. Where Shiv Sena and BJP are likely to sweep Maharashtra, DMK and Congress are likely to sweep in Tamilnadu to make it 1-1 for NDA and UPA Bengal is going third front way to TMC where it is likely to end up with more than 30 seats. So three states go to three different fronts and race for 2019 looks very exciting.

Market Trade Setup 5th February 2019 #NIFTY

Market Trade Setup 5th February 2019

A good Monday which saw the Nifty climbing the peak of 10900 and closing above that gives way to a challenging Tuesday. Today is all about whether the momentum gained late in the afternoon yesterday will sustain or not. The global cues are looking very positive with FAANG (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Net Flix and Google) close 2% higher on New York Stock Exchange last night and Dow Jones closed 170 points higher. Today is the lunar new year for China and Korea and most of Asia except Japan and Singapore are shut. Those markets are absolutely flat. Brent crude is touching 63 dollars and that is a bit of a worry for our markets. 

On the domestic front, the Political factors are going to play their role as the 3 judge bench led by CJI is going to hear the CBI plea of contempt of court against the commissioner of Police, Kolkata. That will keep markets on tenterhooks and apart from that focus has now shifted back to Q3 results. Today’s Q3 results include Aditya Birla Capital, ACC Cements, Adlabs, Apollo Tyres, BHEL, Bombay Dyeing, Century ply, Dish TV, DLF, HPCL, Inox Leisure, Kamat Hotels, Punjab National bank, Sobha developers, Tata global, Tech Mahindra, Torrent power, United bank and Zen labs. So far the Q3 results have been average and we need to see how today, which has the core economic stocks come up with their numbers.

On the derivatives front, there was an equal amount of buying and selling that has happened in the Nifty futures market and the overall long positions in Nifty futures still remain at 45%. The futures market contributed 61,900 Cr turnover yesterday while options contributed 5.46 lakh crore turnover taking the total to 6.08 Lakh Crore. The Nifty put-call ratio also went up to 1.67 from 1.63. 10800 put added 5.3 lakh positions while 10900 put added 4 lakh positions. 10700 put still continues to have the highest open interest. On the call side, 11100 call added 3 lakh positions while 11000 call added 2.1 lakh positions and 11000 call still has the highest open interest. So, today is going to be interesting where we have to see if 11000 will be touched or not.

What is the Nifty call for the day?

Yesterday, Nifty behaved as per the script and if you have taken a long at 10840-10850 you are now sitting on a 60-70 point profit. Today will open between 10920-10940 range which is the resistance zone. The resistance goes all the way up to 10980 and there can be a correction at any place between 10940-10980. Unless it is crossed there is no point in taking fresh long positions at these levels. If you still have yesterday’s positions open close them between 10930-10960 levels and exit. No trading today and we will have to wait till the Nifty crosses 10980 and closes above that. Till then we have to wait and watch.