Tag Archives: UPA

117 Seats, 13 States and 2 Union Territories in the Phase 3 #LokSabha2019 #Elections

Today was the 3rd phase of Lok Sabha Elections 2019 which had 117 seats going for polling. The voter turnout for the last two phases was an average of 69.47% and today’s third phase has shown 66.38% updated as of 11:30 PM. With this, the average voter turnout after three phases stands at 68.43%. This means the present voter turnout is higher than that of the 2014 voter turnout of 66%.

After 3 phases the total number of seats that have gone for polling are 303/543 seats. We now have just 240 seats with 4 phases to go which means with this phase the winner could be already decided. But then we all have to wait till 19th may for the exit polls and 23rd may for the results day to know who will be the winner. One thing is pretty sure that this is the most anticipated elections not just for India but also for the World and there are innumerable events happening in the parts of the country. Violence in West Bengal, Poor voter turnout in Kashmir, High voter turnout in Wayanad and many more.

Important Candidates from Third Phase.

Let’s look at the top 10 seats for this phase:

1. Wayanad – Kerala – Rahul Gandhi is without any doubt winning this seat, as per the data from Election Commission the voter turnout was 74.83% and Rahul is expected to win with a high majority.

2. Thrissur – This is not going to be an easy contest, though this will be a triangular contest between BJP vs INC vs CPI, the real contest is between BJP and INC. Tough one to tell but quite seems like it’s BJP who would win it.

3. Thiruvananthapuram – Kerala – Shashi Tharoor is the name known for his English is the major Congress leader, more than Congress Tharoor has to win it for himself, but then the things have changed a lot for him and are more likely to lose the elections this time. This would mean the victory could be for the K Rajashekaran from BJP.

4. Shimoga – Karnataka – Moving into the land of Karnataka, Shimoga is a crucial seat in Karnataka for any party. Expected that BJP would win this even after the alliance between the JDS and INC.

5. Baramati – Maharashtra – The NCP’s safe seat. Baramati is the seat which is always with the NCP and the sitting MP Supriya Sule is again contesting and is expected to win hands down here.

6. Gandhinagar – Gujarat – Marking the entry of Amit Shah is the constituency of LK Advani. Amit Shah will be hoping that he will retain the seat and also bring in a number of voters on his side. So, this will mark the Amit Shah’s entry into the Lok Sabha.

7. Puri – Odisha – The stronghold of BJD. But then here also there have been a lot of groundwork done by the BJP’s members and are expecting to make inroads into the Odisha. Dr Sambit Patra the spokesperson of BJP is standing this time for BJP and will want to win this battle.

8. Rampur – Uttar Pradesh – the state which gave BJP the most number of seats and BJP knows that there are losses coming from UP. But in Rampur, the controversy by Azam Khan has resulted in sympathy for Jayaprada and this could be her victory.

9. Pilibhit – UP – Varun Gandhi, the young BJP leader who has a lot of positive feeling will be going against the Hemraj Verma and is expected to win the battle outright which is what the voter turnout increase also tells us.

10. Mainpuri – UP – this is the seat where Mulayam Singh who wanted Modi to come to power is contesting. Mulayam Singh from SP+BSP alliance might see Modi winning the national elections but at Mainpuri it might be Mulayam all the way and a defeat for BJP.

Let’s look at the state-wise seats and the probable winning numbers:

1. Assam – 4 seats of Assam are going for polls and a higher voter turnout than 2014 means BJP which won all the 4 seats in 2014 might also repeat this time too.

2. Bihar – This phase saw 5 seats of Northern Bihar going for polls and BJP in 2014 holds 4 of them. This time too the same might be repeated.

3. Goa – The two seats of Goa went to polls today amongst a low voter turnout. With Manohar Parrikar Goans seem to have lost interest. BJP which swept both seats in Goa last time might have to share one with Congress this time

4. Gujarat – Voting in Gujarat was similar to what it was last time but repeating 26/26 again is going to be a tough ask. BJP might concede 2-4 seats to Congress this time.

5. Jammu Kashmir – Very low voter turnout will mean even the sitting MP Mehbooba Mufti might not win.

6. Karnataka – The remaining 14 seats of North Karnataka went for polls and the polls were heavy as the previous phase in South Karnataka. BJP holds 11 out of 14 and with an alliance of Cong-JDS playing out big in Hyderabad Karnataka BJP might end up winning 9-10 seats.

7. Kerala – 20 seats – Congress is doing much better here and expected to win good numbers at 14 seats, BJP will only make its presence by winning 2 and CPI will see bad fall to just 4 seats.

8. Maharashtra –The 14 seats, mainly from Western Maharashtra, the sugar belt and stronghold of Sharad Pawar going to polls. Last time BJP won 11 out of 14 but a lesser turnout this time means the enthusiastic BJP voter has not come out and voted in full force. This might cost BJP a couple of seats and they might win 9 seats giving 5 to Cong-NCP alliance.

9. Odisha – 6 seats went to polls and Odisha saw a very low voter turnout which might harm the ruling BJD and BJP might grab 3-4 seats here.

10. Tripura – 1 seat – BJP’s victory

11. Uttar Pradesh – 10 seats – Crucial State and BJP held 7 out of 10 last time but this time it looks like BJP will fall to 6 and lose 4 to SP+BSP

12. West Bengal – 5 seats – the goons state is not letting the polls conducted peacefully, this could be a negative for ruling party and BJP is expected to win 2 and TMC will take the other 3

13. Chattisgarh – 7 seats – Recent assembly elections have shown us how much BJP has lost and they are expected to fall to 4 seats with INC winning 3 seats

14. Dadra Nagar Haveli – 1 – BJP winner

15. Daman Diu – 1 – BJP winner

In 2014 NDA had 67 out of 117 seats and going BJP might retain the same number and might add 2-3 seats more to its kitty and might touch the 70 figure. Congress is also benefitting and might add close to 10 seats to the 18 they won last time. Others are the big losers who might drop to less than 15 seats from 25 plus they had last time

Election drama from the ‘K’ States in South India. Kerala and Karnataka. #LokSabha2019

South Indian dishes are so different from North India just like the politics of South India and North India. Like North India, South India doesn’t actually vote for the National Parties but they chose regional parties over the National parties. It’s the same when it comes to Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. But then there are two states Kerala and Karnataka which are in line with the North Indian states.

Both Kerala and Karnataka have had the history of voting National Parties to power which is why we don’t get to see major regional parties in these two states. Kerala for its own reasons revolves between Congress and CPM. Karnataka votes between Congress and BJP. The late 20th-century entrant into Karnataka was Deva Gowda’s JDS.

Karnataka had been a special place for Congress till 1991 where they had won almost 80%-100% seats from 1951 to 1991. Of the total 28 seats in Karnataka, Congress was winning 25-28 seats till 1991. Things changed then and the major shift happened in 1996 when JDS led by Deva Gowda won 16 seats and became the Prime Minister. Then the second shift happened in 2004 where Karnataka started to vote for BJP and BJP was winning anywhere between 17-19 seats.

Karnataka is divided into four regions. Below are the regions and the seat numbers part of those regions.

  • Mumbai Karnataka which has seats like Belgaum, Hubli etc
  • Coastal Karnataka which has seats like Mangalore, Udupi etc
  • Hyderabad Karnataka which has news like Gulbarga, Bellary, Raichur etc
  • Old Mysore which is the largest with 13 seats that include Bangalore, Mysore, Tumkur etc

Of the 28 seats and in the four regions, BJP will win in Mumbai Karnataka and Coastal Karnataka as these are traditional BJP seats and they are with BJP for last 15 years. These two regions are strongholds of BJP, Hyderabad Karnataka and Old Mysore are the JDS+Congress strongholds. With JDS and Congress coming together the vote share will surely increase for the coalition which will pose a challenge to BJP. This time there could be a vertical split with 28 seats going 14-14 to BJP and Cong-JDS combine. This is only because of Cong-JDS alliance else, BJP would have again crossed 18 seat mark.

Kerala the fortress for Communist Party of India (Marxist), but only alternatively.

Kerala has been the place for CPM and Congress for a long time. Kerala is divided into two regions, North Kerala and South Kerala. Kerala has got 20 seats and the polling for all the 20 seats will be on April 23rd. In the 2014 elections, UDF led by Congress won 12 seats and LDF led by CPM won 8 seats. That’s the competition between the Congress and Communist party in Kerala.

There are some surprises which could come up in this elections in Kerala and that could be a win for BJP for the first time. BJP is hoping to win two seats. One is the Thiruvananthapuram seat which they lost by a small margin and second is Thrissur which has sizable Hindu population and from where famous actor Suresh Gopi is contesting from BJP ticket. One seat where BJP can give some competition to CPM is the Kasargode seat where religious polarization due to the killing of RSS workers might make the Hindus to shift votes to BJP.

But the tide is expected to be in the way of Congress this time with 14-15 seats coming their way. Wayanad is the seat that has caught all the attention after Rahul Gandhi has nominated himself from there, this decision of Rahul is being highly trolled by BJP. But then ultimately, Wayanad is a strong seat for Congress and with Rahul contesting it’s going to an easy job for INC and Rahul Gandhi to become part of 17th Lok Sabha. CPM is losing badly this time with just 3 seats coming their way and BJP could be the surprise with 2 wins and 1 very tough race.

So, of the 48 seats from Karnataka and Kerala, Congress is expected to win 28-30 seats, 14 each from Karnataka and Kerala. BJP is only expected to win 15-17 seats. The other 3 seats are going to CPM. This means that the ‘K’ states are giving huge wins for UPA led by Congress.

Time for the Lok Sabha Elections 2019! #IndiaVotes #LokSabha2019

The 17th Lok Sabha Elections will be underway in less than 48 hours and the campaigning has come to an end today at 5PM. The polls for 1st phase will be on Thursday 11th April for 91 Lok Sabha seats covering 20 states. Of the 20 states going for polls, 10 states are going for polls completely. This means on the very first day of elections the campaigning of elections for 10 states will be over.

The 10 most important seats that go to polls on 11th April and the details of the contestants and little trivia about them.

1. Arunachal East: North East has turned out to be BJP’s new fortress after 2014. BJP was able to either stitch right coalitions or with their ground level, hard work was able to build faith in the people of North East in the last 5 years. That was seen in the various Assembly election of North Eastern States. Well, coming to the Arunachal East seat, Kiran Rijiju is fighting for BJP and James Lowancha for Congress. Rijiju is a powerful leader who is the present union minister of state for Home affairs and had played an important role in Balakot Air Strikes.

2. Srikakulam: Andhra Pradesh is no clear slate for any party. There are voices giving wins for either party but nothing seems to be clear. Ram Mohan Naidu contesting for TDP is the son of famous Yerran Naidu. Ram Mohan is the sitting MP and TDP will hope to retain this seat. D Srinivas from YSRCP and P Samba Murthy from BJP are other contestants.

3. Vizianagaram: Another important seat from Andhra Pradesh. Basically because of the competition in this area. Ashok Gajapathi Raju is contesting for TDP who has worked as Civil Aviation Minister for NDA when TDP was with BJP. Though a minister, he seems to be losing this seat as the YSRCP wave is building strongly. B Chandra Shekar is YSRCP candidate and P Sanyasi Raju is BJP candidate.

4. Visakhapatnam: A 3rd important seat from Andhra Pradesh. Very important for BJP. This is the only seat which the BJP is expecting to win in AP. D Purandeshwari, daughter of NTR is contesting for BJP. MVV Satyanarayana is YSRCP candidate and MV Sribharat is TDP candidate. Purandeshwari last contested from Rajampet and lost by 1.8 lakh votes. Vizag being an urban seat, BJP expecting a win here.

5. Jamui: Bihar now, Chirag Paswan son of Ram Vilas Paswan is contesting for NDA (BJP). Bhudev Choudhury is from RLSP. The story is that Ram Vilas Paswan is a veteran leader who has been a minister in the Indian government since 1989. He gets the mood of the people well before everyone and always sides the winning team. This time again he chose NDA by asking his Son to contest. Victory very probable.

6. Nagpur: One from Maharashtra, the top leader of BJP, Nitin Gadkari will be contesting from Nagpur. Very famous leader and has got the power to win the battle easily. Very well accepted in his constituency and is known for his work as Road Minister and Ganga Cleaning project. Sure win for BJP

this one. Contesting against is Nana Patole from Congress.

7. Nizamabad: Moving to Telangana, K Kavitha is the candidate from TRS and from the opposition is Madhu Yashki Goud from Congress. Though we have the leader from BJP, D Aravind, the battle is between the two big leaders of INC and TRS. Though it seems most likely that the people will choose Kavitha as their winner, INC will look to give tough competition.

8. Secunderabad: 2nd one from Telangana, BJP has fielded in the next-gen leader G. Kishan Reddy and Congress has got Anjan Kumar Yadav and TRS has their young leader Sai Kiran Yadav. This is the seat of reckoning for BJP, this is the only seat which has the most possible chance of Victory in Telangana. But the things aren’t looking right for BJP and Kishan Reddy who has been hoping for a Victory might have to wait for more time.

9. Hyderabad: 3rd one from Hyderabad. No question raised and no doubts raised, this will be yet another victory for the chief of AIMIM Asaddudin Owaisi. Feroz Khan is contesting for Congress who jumped from TDP. But the things won’t change and Asaddudin will win Hyderabad for 5th Time.

10. Muzaffarnagar: This is a very interesting battle from Uttar Pradesh. Ajit Singh is contesting from RLD and Sanjeev Kumar Balyan is fighting for BJP. In the last elections in 2014, BJP won this seat with as many as 3.5 lakh votes. This was when the parties were scattered and BJP cruised through on arithmetically. This time as per voter share BJP will be losing the battle as BJP is going alone against the powerful Jat-Yadav-Muslim-Dalit combine of RLD-SP-BSP. Very unpredictable seat.

Facts: 2014 Elections Results of Phase 1 that has 91 seats

  • NDA won 38
  • UPA won 7
  • TDP won 18
  • TRS won 11
  • YSRCP of Jagan won 9
  • Biju Janata Dal in Odisha won 4
  • AITC of Mamta Banerjee won 2
  • AIMIM won 1
  • PDP won 1
  • Number of Constituencies 91
  • No. of candidates 1285
  • Number of polling centres 1,69,400

Let’s wait and watch how the polling goes and who wins what!

All about the Mood of Maharashtra in this Maha Elections #LokSabha #Elections2019

India’s biggest State in terms of GDP and the state that every Indian dream to visit and fulfil their dreams ‘Maharashtra’ will go for elections in the month of April. People of Maharashtra will vote in the four phases from 11th April to 29th April.

There are 288 seats in Maharashtra Assembly where a party will need 145 seats for a majority. Coming to Lok Sabha, Maharashtra has 48 seats. Maharashtra is the second largest state in terms of Lok Sabha after Uttar Pradesh which has got 80 seats. The third is West Bengal with 42 seats and fourth is Bihar with 40 seats.

First, let’s look at the 4 regions:
Maharashtra Assembly Constituencies Map

1. Konkan & Goa Region – Coastal region on Maharashtra

2. Madhya Maharashtra – Entire belt after Pune

3. Marathwada- North and South of Maharashtra adjacent to Madhya Maharashtra

4. Vidarbha – Eastern Maharashtra bordering to Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. Nagpur is the capital of this region and comparable the backward regions of all.

Let’s look at the dates and seats phase-phase:

• April 11th – Vidarbha 7 seats

• April 18th – Most of Marathwada 10 seats

• April 23rd – Konkan & Goa 14 seats

• April 29th – Northern part of Marathwada 17 seats

Not to forget the big city in the country, Mumbai will be going for polls in the 4th phase and it has got 8 seats.

1. Kalyan (Outskirts)

2. Thane (Outskirts)

3. Mumbai North

4. Mumbai Northwest

5. Mumbai Northeast

6. Mumbai North Central

7. Mumbai South Central

8. Mumbai South

Source: Latestly

Fact check:

There are totally 8.73 crore registered voters of which there are 21 lakh first-time voters. Off 94,473 polling areas, 55,814 are rural areas and 39659 are urban polling booths.

The Big Fight: 2019 Lok Sabha polls

Maharashtra has 4 big parties, Shivsena, BJP, Congress and NCP. Shivasena was started by Balasaheb Thackeray in the early 1960s and he is the sole reason for many changes in Maharashtra. NCP was started by Sharad Pawar in 1996 after coming out of Congress. The irony is he is now with the same congress as an ally which he left 25 years ago. Though there are 4 parties it is always 2 cornered fight in the Elections. BJP is aligned with Shiva Sena and Congress is aligned with NCP. Till 2009 Cong-NCP dominated in most of the elections and they held power in the state for 15 years from 1999-2014.

Things though changed in 2014 when Maharashtra went all to BJP+Shiva Sena. BJP+SS won as many as 41 seats out of 48 seats, in which BJP won 23 and Shiva Sena took 18. Rest went for 4 NCP and 2 to Congress and the 1 went to the local party which in some days joined BJP.

That’s the strength BJP has grown to in Maharashtra. Lately, there have been differences in Shiva Sena and BJP. But, at the right moment, BJP and Shiv Sena have come together and announced their alliance. Adding to Congress woes, a lot of people walked out from Congress citing the reasons for unhappiness with the performance of Congress. Shocking is that the Leader of opposition Radha Krishna Vikhe Patil who was projected to be as CM if INC won in 2014 also joined BJP. First, it was his son over the disappointment of not getting Ahmed Nagar seat which was given to NCP. Next morning even the father left the party to join BJP. This proves that the alignment is not good and the condition of Congress with NCP is really bad.

This is how the story is getting unfolded in Maharashtra. Finally, an opinion poll by India Today and Karvy says that the BJP and Shiva Sena coalition will win 42 seats which are one seat more than last time. This will mean that the ruling BJP and Shiv Sena will sweep Maharashtra. Let’s wait and watch for the polls and then the counting on May 23rd!

Indian Stock Markets are on a roll as Nifty rallies 2.5% in the last 4 days and 6.75% in the last 3 weeks!

Hello Everyone, this post is a continuation to the last week. In the last week, I had written and explained about the movement of the NIFTY during the General Elections 2014 and compared them to the present scenario. Nothing has changed when it comes to the political decisions are concerned in the last week, but the mood of the market has entirely changed. Last Tuesday NIFTY closed at 10987 and today it closed at 11301 which is 2.85% up move. The only big event that has happened in last one week is the release of election dates for Elections 2019.

Election Commission has decided the dates for the Lok Sabha Elections 2019 on Saturday. Seven phase election is scheduled to begin on the 11th of April and conclude on the 19th of May. Counting is scheduled to be held on May 23rd which is a week later than the last two General Elections. This week has begun on a very different note with NIFTY going up by 1.2% and 1.19% on both the days. This kind of move is only possible when there is a lot of buying in the Delivery channel. Delivery buying is the type of buying where the stocks are bought for investment purpose. Usually, delivery buying is for a minimum of 2 weeks to 3 months.

But should there be a rally before the elections and the important results?

Simply because markets are the leading indicators for the Indian economy. Leading indicator here means something which has the hint of future and tries to jump into the future for a better valuation. Markets everywhere read the future and they trade accordingly.

Who is this Mr/Ms Market?

Obviously, it is the Public. The market is we the people of the country. This includes the High net-worth individuals, individual investors, foreign investors, mutual funds etc. So it is basically the people’s opinion. Keeping it simple, we can call the investors as Domestic and Foreign. Right now we can say that 70% of contribution comes from Foreign investors and 30% comes from Domestic investors. That makes it more clear that the Foreign investors believe that there is positive news coming from the elections. The positive news here at the moment is the re-election of NDA to power.

That proves that it’s the people who take the market forward and these people include all kinds.

How long will this rally Sustain?

Going by the past rally during the General Elections 2014, it was seen that NIFTY was at 6000 at the beginning of February month and on the day of results NIFTY was trading at 7142. This is an astonishing growth of 19% in just 3 and a half months. Going by this simple equation, NIFTY has gone from 10600 in the middle of February to 11320 in the middle of March, which is again a 6.75% growth in just 1 month. With the results being pushed a week we can conservatively expect the Markets to hit 12,000 minimum on the results day. This will mean the Markets will move another 6% up from tomorrow. I repeat 6% is minimum growth it has got all legs to hit 10-12% as well. All this is on the narrative that BJP will come back to the Power in 2019 Elections.

What’s in the store for Investors?

NIFTY 50 Stocks and their returns during build up to General Elections 2014 and General Elections 2019.

Returns, High Returns!! Yes, in the last post also I have discussed how the stocks have made big money from March 2014 to May 2014. The average returns of the portfolio of the 10 stocks from NIFTY gave 31.38% in only 80 days. The same portfolio when calculated this year from Feb 28th till date i.e. 12th March has given 6.7% average returns. By going with the past trends it’s clear that you can make a minimum of 20% returns. Don’t wait and invest in the markets. Especially in the large-cap NIFTY stocks for safe returns. My feeling is obviously to invest and make ‘BIG’ money by the time counting day comes. #NiftyNeedsNamo

Okay! That’s about the Markets and Elections. If this is how interesting the Elections are turning out to be, how can one miss the action? I wouldn’t want to and I hope there are more like me. So, for the next 10 weeks leading to the counting day of Lok Sabha elections 2019, I will be writing posts relating to Elections 2019 for two times in a week. Once on a Tuesday and the other one on Friday. In these posts, I will be writing about the situations, opinions polls, who’s ahead and who’s losing, what each leader are saying and doing, and analyse the mood of the nation leading up to next 72 days!

Stocks that could be Big Winners for next 6 months, but just one condition!

General elections 2019 are just around the corner and the news channels have started the countdown for the big day. This time the battle is expected to be a cliff hanger and a last ball nail biter. There have been many blame games, dashes, cheap tricks, low level comments made by every possible politician. Unfortunate things have happened in the country in the last 1 month and India is fighting it hard and trying to compensate for the loss that we had. This post I will jump back to 2014 and bring out some interesting data oriented analysis from the Stock Market field to show how the stocks predict the winner much before the Exit Polls could.

Firstly, today NIFTY had a big rally after having a waiting game for last few days. Today NIFTY went up by 123 points to close at 10987, coinciding fact that on the first Tuesday of also 2014 NIFTY went up 125 points to close 6526 points.

Few points:

  1. NIFTY50 went up by 18.4% from March 2014 to May 2014 which is just 2 months and barring this year which has been a volatile year, NIFTY since BJP win gone up by 60% till March 2018.
  2. Stocks like Maruti Suzuki went from 1582 to 2386 which is 50% uptrend in just 2 months. The same stock since the 2014 Election is up by 271%.
  3. Random 9 NIFTY 50 stocks which have gone up by 40% and above.
  4. Maruti – 271%
  5. HDFC Bank – 169%
  6. HUL – 137%
  7. HDFC – 100%
  8. Cipla – 65%
  9. Bajaj Auto – 50%
  10. Axis Bank – 43%
  11. L&T – 43%
  12. ICICI Bank – 43%
  13.  Now let’s look at the same stocks and their performance from March 2018 to till date
  14. Maruti – (-19%)
  15. HDFC Bank – (-4%)
  16. HUL – 29%
  17. HDFC – 11%
  18. Cipla – (-18%)
  19. Bajaj Auto – (-2%)
  20. Axis Bank – 36%
  21. L&T – (-10%)
  22. ICICI Bank – (-4%)

Looking at the data of the stocks returns, it’s clear that there is a big uptrend in the stocks right after the elections. Interestingly well before the results could come stocks have rapped up very high returns. 2 months saw average of 25% returns for a Nifty50 stock with SBI making highest of 80% returns, followed by the stocks like Maruti, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank.

This small study is to bring out the possible stocks that could return good money if invested. Today was the day of a sign by Market. It all depends on whether this is a real trend or a false trend. It’s all going to be real tough to predict the winner of the 2019 elections but one always knows that the ruling party has got higher chance than any other party. As we are looking at the behaviour of the stock markets in the last 5 years and the last 2 months before elections. It’s also important that the investor decides the right stock which is only possible through proper study and obviously a little intuition and finally risk taking ability. Right now, the risk rates are very high and so will be the returns.

The condition for the above stocks to perform well and fetch you minimum of 20% returns in 2 months is victory for the ruling party.  Don’t hurry up and take positions tomorrow. Wait at least for a week to see if Nifty is really on an uptrend. If Nifty sustains and remains above 11000 then its time to re-invest again. I wold tell you how to do it in my next Tuesday post. Till then observe the trend.

Indian General Elections Predictions 2019 – Mid Year Predictions – #LokSabha2019

BJP will not win a majority, but nobody else other than BJP can form a Govt in 2019!

Hello Everyone. Tuesday is here and I am back with my final post on 2019 Elections Predictions. I have in my last 4 posts on elections predicted the seats that the parties are going to win in the coming 2019 elections. We have seen that it is BJP which is ahead but not enough to win the elections on their own capacity. Apart from this there are few more very important points to be considered which are crucial. Standing on today as per the present situations my predictions are given below:

NDA = 289, UPA = 104, Third Front = 90 and Fourth Front = 60!

NDA
  1. BJP                         240
  2. JDU(Bihar) 19
  3. Shiv Sena             16
  4. Others                  14
UPA
  1. INC                        78
  2. DMK                     5
  3. RJD                       8
  4. NCP                      4
  5. Others                 9
Third Front
  1. TDP                       8
  2. Kamal Haasan    6
  3. CPI/CPM              8
  4. TMC                      30
  5. SP+BSP                 32
  6. Others                 6
Fourth Front
  1. TRS                       10
  2. YSRCP                   13
  3. Rajinikanth         19
  4. BJD                       16
  5. Others                 2

So, it is wrong to assume that all the Non-NDA and Non-UPA parties are in the third front. You also should understand that there is a Fourth Front which is opposite to the third front and cannot align with the third front. So, if UPA aligns with third front, it won’t get the support of fourth front. For example, TRS cannot align with congress because it is directly fighting Congress in Telangana. Similarly, TDP cannot align with YSRCP because they are fighting each other in AP. That presents me with 5 takeaways from the predictions I made in last 4 weeks.

  1. BJP is all set(?) with the help of its allies to retain the power in 2019!

BJP is sitting on 240 seats and by adding the seats of its allies the tally goes to 289. Which means there are 49 seats which are coming from its allies. BJP last time had 282 seats and this time they are at 240 seats and that’s fall of 42 seats. The two parties with maximum support to BJP are Shiv Sena and JDU in Bihar. These are the two parties which may change their minds at the eleventh hour. Though it’s not alarming news for BJP its surely a call to do something big to come back to power on its own. Because we never know in politics who jumps the castle.

  1. Third Front is not as strong as we think because we have Fourth Front which got emerged from third front!

Not very long ago there were articles written and posted on the birth of ‘Third Front’ which as per a class of journalists would form the next Government of India. So to put this argument to an end, my predictions give Third Front just 90 seats. That’s not even 1/3rd. If we add congress seats to Third front the tally goes to 194. That is nothing close to majority. The Fourth Front is the actual new born baby because there was a cold war between parties of third front and that lead to unofficial withdrawal. That has brought fourth front into scene which may not support BJP directly but give outside support if needed. So 60 seats are huge number and let’s remember that a coalition made out of 10 parties can never rule country!

  1. BJP is losing seats in Northern India and Western India but it is picking up seats in Southern and Eastern India.

BJP overall has 240 seats which looks to be a good number, but when you look into the statistics you will know that BJP is losing in the strong holds like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Maharashtra. Each state there is fall of average 30% fall in the seats won compared to 2014. But the good news being the BJP’s has strengthened in Eastern India and Southern India. Though there is gain in south and east the gain is not good enough to beat the fall in west and north India.

  1. This is perfect battle because the BJP’s Loss is INC’s gain!

If we see BJP is losing 42 seats from its 2014 tally of 282 and INC is winning 34 seats more than what it won in 2014. It shows how nicely INC is able to hit the areas where BJP is losing. We can even conclude that these numbers were won by BJP in 2014 majorly because of Modi wave. The loss of 40 seats is not big in a General election but it’s the pick that matters. That’s where Congress is doing really well to pick up the seats which BJP is losing.

  1. Will BJP form the Govt or Will the Karnataka Scenario hit the Nation in the month of May 2019?

Yes, BJP has 240 seats and its alliance combined takes it to 289 which is 15 seats more than the Majority mark. But the big worries for BJP are coming from Nitish Kumar of JDU whose 19 seats could cost them the majority.  Shiv Sena which is somehow dissatisfied with BJP and if Shiv sena moves out then NDA seats will fall further to 254. That will also mean UPA+Third Front tally will go to 194+16+19=229.  If leaders like Mamta Banerjee, then somehow manage to get KCR and Naveen Patnaik on board to support from outside then that 229 gets another 26 seats which takes their total to 255.

So now we are at NDA 254 and UPA+ThirdFront+JDU+Shivsena+BJD+TRS at 255. The climax then shifts to Tamilnadu where Thalaiva Rajnikanth is expected to win 19 seats. Whoever gets those 19 will cross that magical figure of 272!!

Knowing Rajnikanth well, it’s not tough to say that he will throw his weight behind Modi than behind Congress or Kamal Hassan.

So, final conclusion is that as per the present situations if elections are conducted, it is clear that BJP will win the 2019 elections in any conditions until or unless there is drastic change in the political scenario! Hope you liked this five-part series of mid-year 2018 predictions!!!

General Elections 2019! Mid Year Predictions – Northern Region #LokSabha2019

Lok Sabha Elections 2019 Predictions – Northern Region 

So I am back with the Elections Predictions on this Tuesday. The journey of predicting for the General Elections 2019 which started on 29th May is going to complete the region wise picture today and next week will be the All India picture. When we last visited election predictions and stopped with Western India Predictions, NDA was sitting at 214 seats and UPA at 203 seats with 126 seats left. Today you will know who will be the people’s choice in 2019 elections. But just few words before talking about the North Indian states, this predictions thing has seriously helped me in understanding the politics in the country. Someone who had restricted himself to Telangana, now has good knowledge on almost all the states.

Fine, so coming to the Northern Indian region of India. We have 7 states and Chandigarh here with 126 seats. Out of the 126 seats it’s the Uttar Pradesh which takes 2/3rds with 80 seats and rest 46 divided between other states. Let’s see if UPA is going to do any harm to NDA or will NDA retain the power in 2019!

  1. Uttar Pradesh: The Big State with 80 seats which was the jackpot for BJP in last elections is looking to be a disappointment this time. 2014 saw BJP winning as many as 73 seats and SP+BSP put together winning only 7 seats. This was a huge victory for BJP. This time though BJP will have to taste the bitterness as the predictions show that BJP will fall to 48 and SP+BSP alliance is looking to come back strong and win 32 seats. It is only in Paschim Pradesh or Western UP where BJP is kind of sweeping with 19 out of 28 but not as good as 2014 where it had won 25 seats. Avadh the minority dominated region and a strong hold of SP will be setback as BJP which won 11 last time out of 14 is now dropping to 6. Purvanchal is yet another disappointment for BJP, in the 2014 elections BJP has won 31 out of 32 and this time they are falling to 19 seats. It’s a victory for SP+BSP as they are jumping from 1 seat to 13 seats. And from the last region of 6 seats Bundelkhand BJP is losing 2 seats compared to 6 they won last time. Big point is I am expecting Rahul Gandhi to lose the election to Smriti Irani from Amethi.
  2. Jammu and Kashmir: To the top most state of the Country, in the last elections BJP was in alliance with PDP and it was a great move as they went on to win all the 6 seats. PDP won 3 from Kashmir region which has about 98% Muslim population, BJP won 2 seats in Jammu and 1 seat from Ladakh. We know that the alliance is no more in place and BJP will not and cannot win anything in Kashmir so straight they will fall to 2 as Ladakh is also looking difficult for BJP.
  3. Punjab: The only state where Congress is in power after 2014 elections. Akali Dal and BJP lost the assembly elections badly and Congress came back to the power in 2017. This will really effect the BJP+SAD and their numbers will drop to just 5 out of 13 seats. AAP has lost all its value and will not win anything. INC will gain majorly and will be up from 3 last time to 8 seats now.
  4. Delhi & Chandigarh: The capital has got 7 seats and BJP had clean swept all the 7 seats in the last elections. This time though due to some political problems and anti-incumbency will make way for Congress. Expecting BJP to lose 2 seats and might win 5 seats. From Chandigarh the only seat will go to Kirron Kher from BJP. Congress might win the remaining 2 seats in Delhi.
  5. Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh: Two states which are Pro BJP and I am not seeing any trouble for BJP. Both together there are 9 seats, Uttarakhand 5 and Himachal Pradesh 4. In 2014 BJP won all the 9, expecting BJP to do the same in 2019.
  6. Haryana: Another state which has the feeling of anti-incumbency and it will hurt BJP. Last time BJP has won 7 seats out of 10. This time with the fall of 2 seats BJP will retain 5 seats. It is the Indian National Lok Dal which is going to gain more due to the political issues in the state.

These are the predictions for the Northern Indian region and the race of prediction for the regions has come to an end. My predictions for the Northern India gives BJP 75 seats, INC 12 seats and others at 39 seats. Which takes the tally of BJP or NDA to 289, UPA to 95 and others to 159. With no confirmations on who will join whom and whether the present coalition parties will stay or not these numbers still look dangerous even though NDA might cross the majority mark. BJP+Allies as of now are at 289 without adding any support from South Indian states. In my South India predictions, we have seen Rajinikanth winning good numbers. There is always chance of parties jumping here and there.

Next week will be my concluding post where I will give you state by state figures for all the states and also will tell you how many seats BJP alone can win. Will it be less than 272, then how much less it will be and who are the partners it can bank upon. Wait for the concluding post on 3rd July, you will surely find it interesting!

General Elections-2019! Mid Year Predictions – South India Region #LokSabha2019

It’s Tuesday and it’s my post day. Very recently the NDA Government has completed its 4th year of ruling and they have just 1 more year left before the Lok Sabha elections 2019 take place. Many surveys and polls have been conducted on to see what can happen in 2019 and look at the party’s performance state wise. Last year around this time I had given the seats that can be won by parties as on that day. Starting from today, for the next one month I will predict the seats that BJP, INC and others will be winning in 2019 elections.

These predictions are not of any survey done by me nor a copy of any survey of any TV channel. This is based on the political situations that exist in those states as on today, the perceptions of people reflected trough various surveys and polls coupled with my analysis. I have divided this into 5 parts. The first 4 parts will focus on four regions of India and in the last part I will give an all India picture.

Today it is the turn of BJP’s less favored region of South India. South India is complicated with every state having its own dynamics and the party which is there in one state is not there in other state. Like TRS which is only there in Telangana, TDP and YSRCP in Andhra Pradesh etc. South India includes states like Telangana (17), Andhra Pradesh (25), Karnataka (28), Kerala (20) and Tamil Nadu (39). Union territories Lakshadweep and Pondicherry with 1 seat each. Total of 132 seats.

  1. Telangana is the first state am going to predict. It has 17 seats in total and TRS, Congress, BJP, AIMIM and TDP are the parties contending. I give 10 seats to TRS mostly from North Telangana districts, 4 seats for BJP, coming from the City and other Urban places. Congress will have to limit itself with 2 seats from South Telangana.
  2. Andhra Pradesh another Telugu State which had seen a more than half seats going to coalition of BJP and TDP in 2014. Now with TDP and BJP becoming deadly enemies on the issue of special status, expect a tactical understanding of BJP with YSRCP to teach TDP a lesson. This understanding will exist more on ground and will not reflect as an alliance. This will majorly benefit BJP as YSRCP looks much stronger to capture power in AP. I give 13 out of 25 seats to YSRCP, coming from Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra equally and 4 seats for BJP coming from places like Vizag, Rajahmundry and probably Rajampet. TDP which won 15 seats last time will be reduced to 8.
  1. Karnataka, state which had elections just few days ago has seen a roller coaster of elections. JDS and Congress now with the coalition have confirmed that they will be participating as one in the Lok Sabha Elections. Will that hit them back or help them is something to be seen. As per my fundamental study I feel that it is going to be a little boost to BJP. Expecting a two seat jump to 19 from 17.  Major gains for BJP will come from Mumbai Karnataka where it will win 5 out of 6 seats, Coastal Karnataka where it will sweep all the 3 seats and Central Karnataka where it will win 5 out of 9 seats and also will win few seats in Hyderabad Karnataka and in Bangalore City and Mysore. Cong-JDS combine will be reduced to just 9 seats.
  2. Kerala is the only place in South India where BJP had no seats for many years. But that changed in the assembly elections of 2016 where it won its first seat and got more than 13% vote share and it is expected to do well in the 2019 elections. This is going to be a big plus for BJP if they manage to get the seats I am predicting. I am seeing victory in 5 seats for BJP compared to nothing in 2014. To add a point, in the year 2014 BJP had 10% vote share which jumped to 13% in 2016. So, at the same pace if the vote share goes to 17-18% then they will be able to win 5 seats. These seats will come from North Kerala region of Kasargod, probably in Thrissur and Thiruvananthapuram in South Kerala.
  1. Tamil Nadu – the state of confusion. We now have five big parties fighting out in this state. AIADMK, DMK, AIADMK, Rajnikanth’s new party, MNM of Kamal Hassan and the NDA which has parties like DK, DMDK, PMK and BJP. AIADMK with the amount of anti-incumbency is ruled out to win even one seat of the 39 seats. Last time Jayalalitha’s brand had given them 37 seats but now it’s really tough for them. Plus people voted for her as she put herself for the PM position in case if there is a hung parliament. It is going to be new players who will win it big this time. BJP will also make its inroads and win few major seats. Rajinikanth and Kamal Haasan are going to win it big this time. Rajinikanth with all his rural power will take highest number of seats, especially in South Tamilnadu. Rajnikanth will win 19 out of 40 seats mostly in Southern and Rural Tamilnadu, Kamal Hassan’s MNM will win 6 seats from Urban TN, BJP combine will win 7 seats mostly in western TN and Kanyakumari district. DMK is expected to get 7 seats mostly in Chennai city and North Tamilnadu.

Of the three union territories of Andamans, Pondicherry and Lakshadweep BJP will take Andamans and INC will take Pondicherry and Lakshadweep. So, here is the South India tally for this week.

Party 2019
BJP 40
INC 22
Others 70
Total 132

 

Overall, if we see the tally goes to 132 seats. Out of which BJP is looking set to win 40 seats as compared to 22 seats that they have won in the year 2014. With the support of TDP they had 37. This time even without the support of TDP they are looking to make big gain of 18 seats.

That’s how the overall tally looks with BJP at 40, INC at 22 and others at 70. South India which isn’t favorite region for BJP has made good ground to gain the seats. It all depends on how the parities strategize and win more seats. Other parties will have huge role to play in the South Indian region.

In my next Tuesday post, I will focus on the Eastern states of Orissa, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, West Bengal and North Eastern states. Wait for it!!