BJP will not win a majority, but nobody else other than BJP can form a Govt in 2019!
Hello Everyone. Tuesday is here and I am back with my final post on 2019 Elections Predictions. I have in my last 4 posts on elections predicted the seats that the parties are going to win in the coming 2019 elections. We have seen that it is BJP which is ahead but not enough to win the elections on their own capacity. Apart from this there are few more very important points to be considered which are crucial. Standing on today as per the present situations my predictions are given below:
NDA = 289, UPA = 104, Third Front = 90 and Fourth Front = 60!
- BJP 240
- JDU(Bihar) 19
- Shiv Sena 16
- Others 14
- INC 78
- DMK 5
- RJD 8
- NCP 4
- Others 9
- TDP 8
- Kamal Haasan 6
- CPI/CPM 8
- TMC 30
- SP+BSP 32
- Others 6
- TRS 10
- YSRCP 13
- Rajinikanth 19
- BJD 16
- Others 2
So, it is wrong to assume that all the Non-NDA and Non-UPA parties are in the third front. You also should understand that there is a Fourth Front which is opposite to the third front and cannot align with the third front. So, if UPA aligns with third front, it won’t get the support of fourth front. For example, TRS cannot align with congress because it is directly fighting Congress in Telangana. Similarly, TDP cannot align with YSRCP because they are fighting each other in AP. That presents me with 5 takeaways from the predictions I made in last 4 weeks.
- BJP is all set(?) with the help of its allies to retain the power in 2019!
BJP is sitting on 240 seats and by adding the seats of its allies the tally goes to 289. Which means there are 49 seats which are coming from its allies. BJP last time had 282 seats and this time they are at 240 seats and that’s fall of 42 seats. The two parties with maximum support to BJP are Shiv Sena and JDU in Bihar. These are the two parties which may change their minds at the eleventh hour. Though it’s not alarming news for BJP its surely a call to do something big to come back to power on its own. Because we never know in politics who jumps the castle.
- Third Front is not as strong as we think because we have Fourth Front which got emerged from third front!
Not very long ago there were articles written and posted on the birth of ‘Third Front’ which as per a class of journalists would form the next Government of India. So to put this argument to an end, my predictions give Third Front just 90 seats. That’s not even 1/3rd. If we add congress seats to Third front the tally goes to 194. That is nothing close to majority. The Fourth Front is the actual new born baby because there was a cold war between parties of third front and that lead to unofficial withdrawal. That has brought fourth front into scene which may not support BJP directly but give outside support if needed. So 60 seats are huge number and let’s remember that a coalition made out of 10 parties can never rule country!
- BJP is losing seats in Northern India and Western India but it is picking up seats in Southern and Eastern India.
BJP overall has 240 seats which looks to be a good number, but when you look into the statistics you will know that BJP is losing in the strong holds like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Maharashtra. Each state there is fall of average 30% fall in the seats won compared to 2014. But the good news being the BJP’s has strengthened in Eastern India and Southern India. Though there is gain in south and east the gain is not good enough to beat the fall in west and north India.
- This is perfect battle because the BJP’s Loss is INC’s gain!
If we see BJP is losing 42 seats from its 2014 tally of 282 and INC is winning 34 seats more than what it won in 2014. It shows how nicely INC is able to hit the areas where BJP is losing. We can even conclude that these numbers were won by BJP in 2014 majorly because of Modi wave. The loss of 40 seats is not big in a General election but it’s the pick that matters. That’s where Congress is doing really well to pick up the seats which BJP is losing.
- Will BJP form the Govt or Will the Karnataka Scenario hit the Nation in the month of May 2019?
Yes, BJP has 240 seats and its alliance combined takes it to 289 which is 15 seats more than the Majority mark. But the big worries for BJP are coming from Nitish Kumar of JDU whose 19 seats could cost them the majority. Shiv Sena which is somehow dissatisfied with BJP and if Shiv sena moves out then NDA seats will fall further to 254. That will also mean UPA+Third Front tally will go to 194+16+19=229. If leaders like Mamta Banerjee, then somehow manage to get KCR and Naveen Patnaik on board to support from outside then that 229 gets another 26 seats which takes their total to 255.
So now we are at NDA 254 and UPA+ThirdFront+JDU+Shivsena+BJD+TRS at 255. The climax then shifts to Tamilnadu where Thalaiva Rajnikanth is expected to win 19 seats. Whoever gets those 19 will cross that magical figure of 272!!
Knowing Rajnikanth well, it’s not tough to say that he will throw his weight behind Modi than behind Congress or Kamal Hassan.
So, final conclusion is that as per the present situations if elections are conducted, it is clear that BJP will win the 2019 elections in any conditions until or unless there is drastic change in the political scenario! Hope you liked this five-part series of mid-year 2018 predictions!!!