Tag Archives: UPA

Indian General Elections Predictions 2019 – Mid Year Predictions – #LokSabha2019

BJP will not win a majority, but nobody else other than BJP can form a Govt in 2019!

Hello Everyone. Tuesday is here and I am back with my final post on 2019 Elections Predictions. I have in my last 4 posts on elections predicted the seats that the parties are going to win in the coming 2019 elections. We have seen that it is BJP which is ahead but not enough to win the elections on their own capacity. Apart from this there are few more very important points to be considered which are crucial. Standing on today as per the present situations my predictions are given below:

NDA = 289, UPA = 104, Third Front = 90 and Fourth Front = 60!

NDA
  1. BJP                         240
  2. JDU(Bihar) 19
  3. Shiv Sena             16
  4. Others                  14
UPA
  1. INC                        78
  2. DMK                     5
  3. RJD                       8
  4. NCP                      4
  5. Others                 9
Third Front
  1. TDP                       8
  2. Kamal Haasan    6
  3. CPI/CPM              8
  4. TMC                      30
  5. SP+BSP                 32
  6. Others                 6
Fourth Front
  1. TRS                       10
  2. YSRCP                   13
  3. Rajinikanth         19
  4. BJD                       16
  5. Others                 2

So, it is wrong to assume that all the Non-NDA and Non-UPA parties are in the third front. You also should understand that there is a Fourth Front which is opposite to the third front and cannot align with the third front. So, if UPA aligns with third front, it won’t get the support of fourth front. For example, TRS cannot align with congress because it is directly fighting Congress in Telangana. Similarly, TDP cannot align with YSRCP because they are fighting each other in AP. That presents me with 5 takeaways from the predictions I made in last 4 weeks.

  1. BJP is all set(?) with the help of its allies to retain the power in 2019!

BJP is sitting on 240 seats and by adding the seats of its allies the tally goes to 289. Which means there are 49 seats which are coming from its allies. BJP last time had 282 seats and this time they are at 240 seats and that’s fall of 42 seats. The two parties with maximum support to BJP are Shiv Sena and JDU in Bihar. These are the two parties which may change their minds at the eleventh hour. Though it’s not alarming news for BJP its surely a call to do something big to come back to power on its own. Because we never know in politics who jumps the castle.

  1. Third Front is not as strong as we think because we have Fourth Front which got emerged from third front!

Not very long ago there were articles written and posted on the birth of ‘Third Front’ which as per a class of journalists would form the next Government of India. So to put this argument to an end, my predictions give Third Front just 90 seats. That’s not even 1/3rd. If we add congress seats to Third front the tally goes to 194. That is nothing close to majority. The Fourth Front is the actual new born baby because there was a cold war between parties of third front and that lead to unofficial withdrawal. That has brought fourth front into scene which may not support BJP directly but give outside support if needed. So 60 seats are huge number and let’s remember that a coalition made out of 10 parties can never rule country!

  1. BJP is losing seats in Northern India and Western India but it is picking up seats in Southern and Eastern India.

BJP overall has 240 seats which looks to be a good number, but when you look into the statistics you will know that BJP is losing in the strong holds like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Maharashtra. Each state there is fall of average 30% fall in the seats won compared to 2014. But the good news being the BJP’s has strengthened in Eastern India and Southern India. Though there is gain in south and east the gain is not good enough to beat the fall in west and north India.

  1. This is perfect battle because the BJP’s Loss is INC’s gain!

If we see BJP is losing 42 seats from its 2014 tally of 282 and INC is winning 34 seats more than what it won in 2014. It shows how nicely INC is able to hit the areas where BJP is losing. We can even conclude that these numbers were won by BJP in 2014 majorly because of Modi wave. The loss of 40 seats is not big in a General election but it’s the pick that matters. That’s where Congress is doing really well to pick up the seats which BJP is losing.

  1. Will BJP form the Govt or Will the Karnataka Scenario hit the Nation in the month of May 2019?

Yes, BJP has 240 seats and its alliance combined takes it to 289 which is 15 seats more than the Majority mark. But the big worries for BJP are coming from Nitish Kumar of JDU whose 19 seats could cost them the majority.  Shiv Sena which is somehow dissatisfied with BJP and if Shiv sena moves out then NDA seats will fall further to 254. That will also mean UPA+Third Front tally will go to 194+16+19=229.  If leaders like Mamta Banerjee, then somehow manage to get KCR and Naveen Patnaik on board to support from outside then that 229 gets another 26 seats which takes their total to 255.

So now we are at NDA 254 and UPA+ThirdFront+JDU+Shivsena+BJD+TRS at 255. The climax then shifts to Tamilnadu where Thalaiva Rajnikanth is expected to win 19 seats. Whoever gets those 19 will cross that magical figure of 272!!

Knowing Rajnikanth well, it’s not tough to say that he will throw his weight behind Modi than behind Congress or Kamal Hassan.

So, final conclusion is that as per the present situations if elections are conducted, it is clear that BJP will win the 2019 elections in any conditions until or unless there is drastic change in the political scenario! Hope you liked this five-part series of mid-year 2018 predictions!!!

General Elections 2019! Mid Year Predictions – Northern Region #LokSabha2019

Lok Sabha Elections 2019 Predictions – Northern Region 

So I am back with the Elections Predictions on this Tuesday. The journey of predicting for the General Elections 2019 which started on 29th May is going to complete the region wise picture today and next week will be the All India picture. When we last visited election predictions and stopped with Western India Predictions, NDA was sitting at 214 seats and UPA at 203 seats with 126 seats left. Today you will know who will be the people’s choice in 2019 elections. But just few words before talking about the North Indian states, this predictions thing has seriously helped me in understanding the politics in the country. Someone who had restricted himself to Telangana, now has good knowledge on almost all the states.

Fine, so coming to the Northern Indian region of India. We have 7 states and Chandigarh here with 126 seats. Out of the 126 seats it’s the Uttar Pradesh which takes 2/3rds with 80 seats and rest 46 divided between other states. Let’s see if UPA is going to do any harm to NDA or will NDA retain the power in 2019!

  1. Uttar Pradesh: The Big State with 80 seats which was the jackpot for BJP in last elections is looking to be a disappointment this time. 2014 saw BJP winning as many as 73 seats and SP+BSP put together winning only 7 seats. This was a huge victory for BJP. This time though BJP will have to taste the bitterness as the predictions show that BJP will fall to 48 and SP+BSP alliance is looking to come back strong and win 32 seats. It is only in Paschim Pradesh or Western UP where BJP is kind of sweeping with 19 out of 28 but not as good as 2014 where it had won 25 seats. Avadh the minority dominated region and a strong hold of SP will be setback as BJP which won 11 last time out of 14 is now dropping to 6. Purvanchal is yet another disappointment for BJP, in the 2014 elections BJP has won 31 out of 32 and this time they are falling to 19 seats. It’s a victory for SP+BSP as they are jumping from 1 seat to 13 seats. And from the last region of 6 seats Bundelkhand BJP is losing 2 seats compared to 6 they won last time. Big point is I am expecting Rahul Gandhi to lose the election to Smriti Irani from Amethi.
  2. Jammu and Kashmir: To the top most state of the Country, in the last elections BJP was in alliance with PDP and it was a great move as they went on to win all the 6 seats. PDP won 3 from Kashmir region which has about 98% Muslim population, BJP won 2 seats in Jammu and 1 seat from Ladakh. We know that the alliance is no more in place and BJP will not and cannot win anything in Kashmir so straight they will fall to 2 as Ladakh is also looking difficult for BJP.
  3. Punjab: The only state where Congress is in power after 2014 elections. Akali Dal and BJP lost the assembly elections badly and Congress came back to the power in 2017. This will really effect the BJP+SAD and their numbers will drop to just 5 out of 13 seats. AAP has lost all its value and will not win anything. INC will gain majorly and will be up from 3 last time to 8 seats now.
  4. Delhi & Chandigarh: The capital has got 7 seats and BJP had clean swept all the 7 seats in the last elections. This time though due to some political problems and anti-incumbency will make way for Congress. Expecting BJP to lose 2 seats and might win 5 seats. From Chandigarh the only seat will go to Kirron Kher from BJP. Congress might win the remaining 2 seats in Delhi.
  5. Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh: Two states which are Pro BJP and I am not seeing any trouble for BJP. Both together there are 9 seats, Uttarakhand 5 and Himachal Pradesh 4. In 2014 BJP won all the 9, expecting BJP to do the same in 2019.
  6. Haryana: Another state which has the feeling of anti-incumbency and it will hurt BJP. Last time BJP has won 7 seats out of 10. This time with the fall of 2 seats BJP will retain 5 seats. It is the Indian National Lok Dal which is going to gain more due to the political issues in the state.

These are the predictions for the Northern Indian region and the race of prediction for the regions has come to an end. My predictions for the Northern India gives BJP 75 seats, INC 12 seats and others at 39 seats. Which takes the tally of BJP or NDA to 289, UPA to 95 and others to 159. With no confirmations on who will join whom and whether the present coalition parties will stay or not these numbers still look dangerous even though NDA might cross the majority mark. BJP+Allies as of now are at 289 without adding any support from South Indian states. In my South India predictions, we have seen Rajinikanth winning good numbers. There is always chance of parties jumping here and there.

Next week will be my concluding post where I will give you state by state figures for all the states and also will tell you how many seats BJP alone can win. Will it be less than 272, then how much less it will be and who are the partners it can bank upon. Wait for the concluding post on 3rd July, you will surely find it interesting!

General Elections-2019! Mid Year Predictions – South India Region #LokSabha2019

It’s Tuesday and it’s my post day. Very recently the NDA Government has completed its 4th year of ruling and they have just 1 more year left before the Lok Sabha elections 2019 take place. Many surveys and polls have been conducted on to see what can happen in 2019 and look at the party’s performance state wise. Last year around this time I had given the seats that can be won by parties as on that day. Starting from today, for the next one month I will predict the seats that BJP, INC and others will be winning in 2019 elections.

These predictions are not of any survey done by me nor a copy of any survey of any TV channel. This is based on the political situations that exist in those states as on today, the perceptions of people reflected trough various surveys and polls coupled with my analysis. I have divided this into 5 parts. The first 4 parts will focus on four regions of India and in the last part I will give an all India picture.

Today it is the turn of BJP’s less favored region of South India. South India is complicated with every state having its own dynamics and the party which is there in one state is not there in other state. Like TRS which is only there in Telangana, TDP and YSRCP in Andhra Pradesh etc. South India includes states like Telangana (17), Andhra Pradesh (25), Karnataka (28), Kerala (20) and Tamil Nadu (39). Union territories Lakshadweep and Pondicherry with 1 seat each. Total of 132 seats.

  1. Telangana is the first state am going to predict. It has 17 seats in total and TRS, Congress, BJP, AIMIM and TDP are the parties contending. I give 10 seats to TRS mostly from North Telangana districts, 4 seats for BJP, coming from the City and other Urban places. Congress will have to limit itself with 2 seats from South Telangana.
  2. Andhra Pradesh another Telugu State which had seen a more than half seats going to coalition of BJP and TDP in 2014. Now with TDP and BJP becoming deadly enemies on the issue of special status, expect a tactical understanding of BJP with YSRCP to teach TDP a lesson. This understanding will exist more on ground and will not reflect as an alliance. This will majorly benefit BJP as YSRCP looks much stronger to capture power in AP. I give 13 out of 25 seats to YSRCP, coming from Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra equally and 4 seats for BJP coming from places like Vizag, Rajahmundry and probably Rajampet. TDP which won 15 seats last time will be reduced to 8.
  1. Karnataka, state which had elections just few days ago has seen a roller coaster of elections. JDS and Congress now with the coalition have confirmed that they will be participating as one in the Lok Sabha Elections. Will that hit them back or help them is something to be seen. As per my fundamental study I feel that it is going to be a little boost to BJP. Expecting a two seat jump to 19 from 17.  Major gains for BJP will come from Mumbai Karnataka where it will win 5 out of 6 seats, Coastal Karnataka where it will sweep all the 3 seats and Central Karnataka where it will win 5 out of 9 seats and also will win few seats in Hyderabad Karnataka and in Bangalore City and Mysore. Cong-JDS combine will be reduced to just 9 seats.
  2. Kerala is the only place in South India where BJP had no seats for many years. But that changed in the assembly elections of 2016 where it won its first seat and got more than 13% vote share and it is expected to do well in the 2019 elections. This is going to be a big plus for BJP if they manage to get the seats I am predicting. I am seeing victory in 5 seats for BJP compared to nothing in 2014. To add a point, in the year 2014 BJP had 10% vote share which jumped to 13% in 2016. So, at the same pace if the vote share goes to 17-18% then they will be able to win 5 seats. These seats will come from North Kerala region of Kasargod, probably in Thrissur and Thiruvananthapuram in South Kerala.
  1. Tamil Nadu – the state of confusion. We now have five big parties fighting out in this state. AIADMK, DMK, AIADMK, Rajnikanth’s new party, MNM of Kamal Hassan and the NDA which has parties like DK, DMDK, PMK and BJP. AIADMK with the amount of anti-incumbency is ruled out to win even one seat of the 39 seats. Last time Jayalalitha’s brand had given them 37 seats but now it’s really tough for them. Plus people voted for her as she put herself for the PM position in case if there is a hung parliament. It is going to be new players who will win it big this time. BJP will also make its inroads and win few major seats. Rajinikanth and Kamal Haasan are going to win it big this time. Rajinikanth with all his rural power will take highest number of seats, especially in South Tamilnadu. Rajnikanth will win 19 out of 40 seats mostly in Southern and Rural Tamilnadu, Kamal Hassan’s MNM will win 6 seats from Urban TN, BJP combine will win 7 seats mostly in western TN and Kanyakumari district. DMK is expected to get 7 seats mostly in Chennai city and North Tamilnadu.

Of the three union territories of Andamans, Pondicherry and Lakshadweep BJP will take Andamans and INC will take Pondicherry and Lakshadweep. So, here is the South India tally for this week.

Party 2019
BJP 40
INC 22
Others 70
Total 132

 

Overall, if we see the tally goes to 132 seats. Out of which BJP is looking set to win 40 seats as compared to 22 seats that they have won in the year 2014. With the support of TDP they had 37. This time even without the support of TDP they are looking to make big gain of 18 seats.

That’s how the overall tally looks with BJP at 40, INC at 22 and others at 70. South India which isn’t favorite region for BJP has made good ground to gain the seats. It all depends on how the parities strategize and win more seats. Other parties will have huge role to play in the South Indian region.

In my next Tuesday post, I will focus on the Eastern states of Orissa, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, West Bengal and North Eastern states. Wait for it!!

Predictions for 2019 Elections – Will Modi and NDA hit Brace?

General Elections 2019 – Will Modi retain the throne?

Even after 3 years Modi is still maintaining his magic and BJP and NDA are way ahead of Congress and UPA. This week am going to give the projected figures for BJP and NDA if elections are held in 2019 as things stand now. I have done this survey purely on the past data and have put seats on the vote percentages based on bye elections in various states and state assembly elections after 2014. The results show that BJP which got 282 on its own in 2014 might drop a bit and might get between 276-278 seats which still above the majority mark of 272.

BJP will lose in states like Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Haryana and Chattisgarh but might make up by picking up handsomely in North east, Kerala, Karnataka, Orissa and West Bengal. That more or less balances losses with the gains. NDA however might go up marginally from 321 to around 340 which is primarily to do with the AIADMK and JDU joining NDA and TDP, Shiv sena and Akali dal delivering better than what they delivered in 2014.

Let us now look at the state wise break up.

1. Andhra Pradesh: In 2014 elections there was an alliance between TDP-BJP which helped the combine to win 17 out of 25 seats. The combined vote share is 36%. YSRCP which won 8 seats had a vote share of 29%. Congress won 0 seats with vote share of 12%. If we look at the scenario of 2019 we need to look at the trends in bye elections in 2016 and 2017. The bye elections in Tirupati and Nandyal recently indicates a strong wave for TDP-BJP combine and they will win 20 out of 25 seats in 2019. That’s +3 for TDP-BJP combine.

2. Assam: 14 seats are there in Assam and BJP has been doing wonderful in the states from 2014. In 2014 BJP won 7 out of 14 seats. But the real turn around happened in 2016 assembly elections where NDA led by BJP got 42% vote share. Congress was 2nd with 31% vote. Having lost that feel good and if we take 38-40% vote for NDA and 31-33% for UPA in 2019, we get 9 seats
for NDA and 5 for UPA. That’s +2 for BJP in Assam.

3. Bihar: This is where BJP will make a huge gain. In 2014 elections BJP got 22 out of 40 seats with 39% vote share. JDU got 16% vote. Now if they fight together and even if BJP loses 10% vote share also because in 2014 it was a multi cornered contest the JDU-BJP combine will have 45% vote vs RJD-Cong combine of 28% vote. That would mean 25 seats for NDA and 15 seats for UPA. Here also its +3 seats up for BJP.

4. Chattisgarh: Chattisgarh has 11 seats and its always tug of war between Congress and BJP. In 2014 BJP won 10 out of 11 seats with 49% vote and congress 1 seat with 39% vote. Now the scene is bit changed. There were no bye elections happened after 2014 and the state will go for assembly elections in late 2018. That should provide a strong indicator. But with naxal problem not solved and bit of anti-incumbency I predict 6 seats for BJP with 45% vote and 5 for Congress with 44% vote. First time is -4 for BJP.

5. Delhi & Goa: Together they have 9 seats. In 2014 elections BJP won 9 out of 9 seats. More or less the popularity is intact and I see them not losing more than 2 seats in Delhi and 1 in Goa. So minimum they would get 6 out of 9 and congress 3. That’s one more -3 down for BJP.

6. Gujarat: It is the personal turf of Modi. Gujarat has 26 seats. In 2014 BJP won 26/26. With Amit shah in charge BJP will retain it hold. Whatever maybe the result of assembly elections BJP will maintain its 26/26 record in 2019 also. So, its status quo for BJP.

7. Haryana: It’s a complicated state with 10 seats. In 2014 BJP won 7 out of 10 with 35% vote. INLD a strong force in Haryana won 2 seats and Congress 1. However, in just few months the assembly elections saw BJP vote slipping to 33%. With strong anti-incumbency and Ram Rahim effect BJP is set to lose heavily in this state. I see a 10% drop in vote share which will take BJP to 25% and it might end up winning 3 seats. INLD might win 5 and Congress 2. That means its -4 for BJP here also.

8. Himachal and J&K: Put together these two states have 10 seats and BJP won 7 out of 10 here in 2014. Himachal will be cake walk for BJP and Jammu also might give BJP its 3 seats. So, this time also am expecting a 7 out of 10. That means status quo.

9. Jharkhand: This is a tribal state with 14 seats and in 2014 BJP did exceedingly well bagging 12 out of 14. BJP got 40% vote. In the assembly elections that followed BJP got 35% vote share. Keeping 32% as vote share because of anti-incumbency I see BJP bagging 9 out of 14 and UPA 5. That’s -3 for BJP again.

10. Karnataka: Karnataka has 28 seats and in 2014 BJP got 17 out of 28 getting 43% vote. This time Congress might suffer a setback in assembly elections and in 2019 I see BJP vote share going to 45% that means 21 out of 28 seats which is +4 more than 2014.

11. Kerala: In 2014 BJP scored zero out of 20 seats. But it got 10% vote share for the first time. But the good news comes from 2016 assembly elections where BJP got 15% vote. Since then they are on a rise and if we look at 2019 I expect BJP to touch 20% vote share which will give it minimum 6 seats in a 3-cornered contest. That’s a huge account opening for BJP and a +6 addition to its tally.

12. Madhya Pradesh: Madhya Pradesh has 29 seats and BJP won 27 out of it with 55% vote share. The recently held bye elections in 2 seats saw BJP getting a vote share of 48%. That is a drop of 7% which means BJP might end up at 23 and Congress 6 in 2019. That’s -4 for BJP from MP.

13. Maharashtra: It’s a very complicated state to predict. There are 48 seats here and BJP Shiv sena combined won 41 out of 48. BJP got 27% vote and Shiv sena 21% vote. But in the assembly elections later BJP went alone and got 28% vote and Shiv sena dropped to 19%. Now the scenario is different. BJP must be with Shiv sena and together both might end up with 45% vote. If Congress forms an alliance with NCP then they can together get 41% vote. That would mean 28 seats for NDA and 20 for UPA. That’s a huge drop of -13 seats. But if BJP manages to keep NCP away from congress and make it a 3-cornered fight then it might end up getting 36 seats which will be a drop of -5 which is a much better scenario.

14. North east: Minus Assam North east accounts for 10 seats and in 2014 BJP won just 1 out of 10 seats. But with Himantha Biswa Sarma making BJP strong in North east BJP will win the lone seat in Arunachal, 2 in Manipur, 2 in Meghalaya and 1 in Sikkim. That takes the total to 6 seats. That’s a +5 for BJP from North east.

15. Orissa: Orissa has 21 seats and BJP has been eyeing this state from a long time. In 2014 elections BJP was 3rd in Orissa with 21% vote share behind Congress that had 26% and BJD which had 44%. It won just 1 out of 21 seats. The Zilla parishad and municipal elections held in 2017 saw BJP making huge gains and if those stand then BJP’s vote share might go to 30% and BJD will drop to 40%. That would mean BJP winning 8 out of 21 seats and BJD getting 13. That means its +7 for BJP in Orissa, huge gains.

16. Punjab: Punjab has 13 seats and in 2014 BJP-Akali combine won 6 out of 13. The total vote share is just 29%. Congress won 3 seats with 33% vote and AAP won 4 seats with 30% vote. Now let’s look at the Punjab assembly elections in 2017. BJP’s vote share improved to 31% from 29%, Congress jumped to 39% from 33% and AAP reduced to 23% from 30%. By 2019 with aging Amrinder Singh not able to hold the reins and with AAP in tatters I see a sweep for BJP-Akali combine with 45% vote getting 10 seats and Congress with 35% vote reduced to 3. That’s a jump of +4 seats for BJP in Punjab.

17. Rajasthan: BJP got 25/25 seats in Rajasthan in 2014 and just few months before that they won the 200-member assembly with more than 170 seats. Rajasthan is one state that has huge anti-incumbency and every govt changes in 5 years. This time elections to the state assembly are scheduled at the end of 2018 and it’s going to be tough for BJP to fight the anti-incumbency. Congress has a good leader in Sachin Pilot who can match the popularity of Vasundhara Raje Scindhia. The recent by poll went in favor of BJP but that’s not an indicator that the vote is intact. BJP got 51% vote in 2014 and that’s likely to come to around 46% in 2019 and Congress that was at 31% in 2015 might go to 39% or so. That means 18 seats for BJP and 7 for Congress. That’s a loss of -7 seats to BJP.

18. Tamilnadu: Tamilnadu and Pondy have 40 seats between them and it’s in a mess. In 2014 AIADMK swept the state winning 37 out of 40 seats with 44% vote share. This time BJP wants an alliance with AIADMK. But is AIADMK strong after Amma is a big question. DMK got 24% vote and this will go up significantly. I see a 35% vote for AIADMK and 34% for DMK and a split mandate of 21 seats for BJP and 19 for DMK-Congress. That also means a huge jump of +21 seats for BJP as its zero in 2014.

19. Telangana: Telangana is a complex state with 17 seats and in 2014 BJP-TDP combine has 2 seats from here. Telangana is a TRS bastion and unless TRS joins NDA there is no chance for it. Maximum BJP can hope for is the Secunderabad seat to it. That means a loss of 1 seat. So, -1 for BJP from here. Congress can pick up handful seats here around 5, leaving 1 to MIM and 11 for TRS.

20. Uttar Pradesh: The largest state in India with 80 seats. BJP swept in 2014 getting 73 out of 80 with 43% vote share. If we compare 2017 assembly elections BJP managed to hold on to that high vote share and got 42%. But 2 years from now things will change and am seeing a 40% vote share and 60 seats for the BJP that means a huge drop of -13 seats.

21. Uttarakhand: It’s a small state with 5 seats and I expect BJP to bag all the 5 like 2014.

22. West Bengal: It has 42 seats and in 2014 BJP got 18% vote share and 2 seats. The recent bye poll in Bengal showed BJP crossing 30% vote share and stood behind TMC. If this holds on Bengal will be a big surprise and BJP will bag 10 seats. That’s up by +8 seats.

23. Union territories: There are 4 seats in UTs and BJP like 2014 will get 3 of them.