Tag Archives: Trade Setup

Market Trade Setup 3rd October #NIFTY

Market Trade Setup 3rd October

buy dapoxetine generic Thank God we did not trade yesterday, thank god it was Gandhi Jayanti. Brent Crude went to a high of 85.45 dollars and dollar index went to 95.5 from Monday’s value of 94.5. That would mean Crude at 85.45 and Rupee would have reached 73.5 and that would have spelt disaster on Nifty and it would have lost another 100-120 points. But thank god, all this was saved as we were on a holiday. Today as we open things are bit settled with Brent Crude at 84.95 and Asia in mild green and Dow Jones closing 120 points so all this might put some losses to rest.

On the domestic front, things are not looking great here also. The GST collections for the month of August come at 94,000 Cr vs expected 1.1 lakh crore and that is definitely not a good news for Govt which is looking for some revenues to stick to 3.3% fiscal deficit. The auto sales for the month of September also has been disappointing on the back of lower demand and Kerala floods impacting consumptions. The 3 day MPC meeting to decide the monetary policy rates would be commencing today and on Friday we will have the rates coming out. The consensus estimate is a 25 bps rate hike.

On the derivatives front, Monday was a great day for bulls as the premium on Nifty futures has doubled from 28 points to 55 points and the overall long positions in Futures shot up from 46% to 48%. The options market also was going good with Nifty put call ratio surging from 1.33 to 1.41. There was more of call buying, with 2 calls bought for every put and in selling nearly 5 puts were sold for every 2 calls. 10700 put added maximum open interest of 10.6 lakh contracts while 10500 put added 8.8 lakh contracts taking the accumulated open interest to 30.3 lakh and 10800 put is at 31.9 lakh. Any drop in Nifty means the base for the market will shift from 10800 to 10500 which means we could go to 10500 in this series. Not a good sign. 

What is the Nifty call for the day?

Though Asia is looking green, we might open flat to negative between 10960-10980 levels because of yesterday’s trade not being there. What happens after that, with Crude almost touching 85 dollars and Rupee at 73 needs to be seen. Rupee for sure will open above 73 per dollar and soon we might see it going to 73.20-73.30 levels. That would put immense pressure on Nifty and Bank Nifty. I would not suggest any position but would advice you to wait and see what happens. 10880 is a strong support and I want to see if Nifty would touch that today. On the upside 11150 is a resistance.

So, its a very wide and volatile range, so no trade today, just try to see which direction Nifty goes.

Market Trade Setup 9th July #Nifty

Markets and News

The second week of July starts off with a lot of promise and the feeling of leaving sticky things behind. The trade wars are history now with both US and China imposing some sanctions on each other but both know that they needed for each other. The reaction was Dow was up 100 points on Friday and the jobs data of US comes at a strong 2.13 lakh vs expected 1.95 lakh and that kept US higher. The Crude oil remained steady at 77 dollars and the Asia is trading higher today with Hong Kong up by 500 points and Japan up 300 point gain and Shanghai after falling for almost a week have seen a 1.5% gain.

Domestic Cues

On the domestics, a lot of data is coming this week. The Q1 earnings season is starting this week with DishTV which is coming up with its results today and IndusInd bank will come with their Q1 tomorrow along with the IT major TCS also declaring its Q1 tomorrow. Then the next big day is 13th July, Friday when another IT major Infosys will come up with their Q1. Along with this the two macro data points IIP and CPI for May and June will be released on 12th July. So, these are some of the fundamentals that market has to absorb in this week.

Derivatives Action

Coming to derivatives, Friday saw a lot of action on puts and calls as the market crossed 10800 to go up 10816, puts were in demand and once the market started falling in the last hour calls came into play. The overall long positions in Nifty futures just went up 1% from 40% to 41%. The options market saw much tighter positions with Nifty put call ratio remaining constant at 1.51. 10700 put saw 5.4 lakh contract build up and 10800 put saw 4.6 lakh contracts. On the call side 10800 call saw 3.5 lakh contracts and 11100 call saw 1.2 lakh and 11300 call saw 1.8 lakh contracts. The build up in the 11100 and 11300 call shows that some big move on the upside is expected sometime in this series.

What is the Nifty call for the day?

The green in Asian markets mean that we will open at around 10820 levels which is the Friday high as well as this series high. What happens from there needs to be carefully observed. A lot of call shorting happened at 10800 and that call is at 100 rupees and that means Nifty temporarily has legs to go till 10890 and if that is the case then it would be advisable to go long at source url 10810-10830 levels with http://thetwistedcitrus.com/depression 10880-10900 as the target. This is a target that you might have to keep for a week if Nifty takes time to climb this. But there is no opportunity for shorting and shorting might not be a good idea.

Market Trade Setup 31st May #Nifty

Markets and News
Last day of the month, coinciding with the last day of the series!!! How many times it happens this way? Another point to note is after 2 series going to bulls and 2 series to bears, this series is considered to be the tie breaker but this series itself is going towards a tie breaker. This series started at 10618 and now the market is at 10614 that means its just 4 points down. So, nobody can say at the end of the day, will bulls take this series or the bears. This series also was volatile with the highest going to 10929 on Karnataka results day and quickly slipping to 10418. So, we had a range of 500 points but its closing the series absolutely flat. That is why on the starting day of this series I suggest a long straddle and that should have given some profits to you.
Coming to the World markets the Dow jones closed 300 points up as the fears of Italy and temporarily put back and that has cheered up Asia as well. The Brent crude however climbed again to 77 dollars per barrel and that means the chances of a fuel cut is also receding. Oil companies are not in a mood to allow the rates to fall as in the last 15-18 months they suffered huge losses on the back of US shale gas and low demand for the crude. Many economies like Iran, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela had to bear the brunt of lower crude prices. So, expect the crude prices to remain steady around that 75-80 dollar mark for the time being.
Domestic Cues
On the domestic front, Q4 results have ended and today is the day for the Q4 GDP and FY’18 annual GDP and GVA growth rates to come out. The expectations are positive everyone is expecting a 7.4% GDP growth and if you ask me I would say that it could be higher than 7.5% and as high as 7.8%. After 5.7% in Q1, 6.5% in Q2, 7.2% in Q3 we are averaging 6.4% and if we get a 7.5% also we can touch 6.7-6.75% growth which will be just 0.4% less than 2016-17 fiscal growth of 7.1%. CSO and RBI are predicting a growth rate of 6.6% and the numbers will be out by 5.30PM today after the markets close. In other news, ICICI bank will be in some risk as there is an internal enquiry ordered to investigate the quid pro quo charges levied against the Chairman and CEO, Chanda Kochchar. It might have some impact on ICICI as well as bank nifty.
Derivatives Action
Derivatives are important today as the expiry day is all about playing with options. The rollovers to June are at 42% as on yesterday evening and we need to see how markets pan out today. The put call ratio is stuck and it is 1.39 at the end of the day vs 1.40 seen at the beginning of the day. There are equal number of positions created and unwound at the put and call side. 10500 put added 7.9 lakh contracts and that means 10500 will be the firm floor for this series and on call side 10600 call has 6.6 lakh contracts and at 30 rupees premium 10630 might be the temporary roof but 10650 call also hs 4 lakh contracts at 12 rupees premium meaning, if Nifty approaches 10650 then it can go upto 10660 mark.
What is the Nifty and bank Nifty call for the day?
You have two positions open in Nifty already. The naked short put will give you the premium and the short straddle also might work out in your favour today. Because of the slightly positive Asia, Nifty might open around 10650 and there it might get some resistance. so, we need to see what happens there. So, wait for my tweet during the day for taking further positions and avoid bank nifty as there is a lot of fundamental confusion in ICICI bank.

Market Trade Setup 30th May Nifty

Markets and News
Penultimate day to expiry, and things are looking very very bleak. Italy is the worry for the whole world. Italian results were like Karnataka results with no party getting a clear mandate to rule. Now with no coalition emerging to form the Govt, we are staring at a scenario where Italy might go to polls or a scenario where the coalition that comes to power might pull out of Euro. Out of the 630 seats in Chamber of Deputies Right centre party got 265 seats, Left centre party got 122 seats and Centrist 5 star movement got 227 seats. No body touched the 316 mark which is the majority. Even in the senate that has 315 seats Right centre party got 137 seats, Left centre got 60 and centrist party got 112. 158 is the majority figure. This is the reason why World is afraid of Euro. Yesterday Dow fell more than 500 points before recovering a bit and close at 400 points down. That prompted dollar index also to go up and its almost touching 95 now. That has put pressure on many emerging economies.
Domestic Cues
On the domestic front, the Crude prices have stabilized a bit and Brent crude settled below 75 dollars and that prompted Govt to reduce the petrol prices today after 15 days of continuous rise from 14th of May when voting completed in Karnataka. The Q4 results have also come to an end and things are looking slightly better than the previous Q4 results as well as the Q3 results. So, domestically things are looking positive but with global cues so negative these fundamentals have no role to play in today’s market scenario.
Derivatives Action
On the derivatives front, there is a massive change in the mood and sentiment in the later half of the trade as market started falling yesterday afternoon on Italian fears. Nifty went into a deep discount of 9 points and suddenly the rollovers from May to June shot up and ended at 30% now. These are on the back of low premium for Nifty futures. On the options front also the Nifty put call ratio dropped rapidly to 1.40 from 1.52 and it is again due to unwinding of positions on put side as market approached the 10620 level. 10500 put saw unwinding of 11.6 lakh positions.
What is the Nifty and Bank Nifty call for the day?
Asia has reacted very negatively to the Italian situation and every market there is down. As a result, Nifty also will open gap down below 10600 mark and what happens from there needs to be seen. 10490 is the floor for the series, as appears from the options data and it is better to go for short strangle at 10500 put and 10650 call and whatever is the premium will be tweeted to you once the market opens.
On the bank Nifty front, after a big fall, and the gap down expected, it is better to go for a long position on bank nifty intraday, but wait for my tweet for a clarity on this.

Stock Market Trade Setup 28th May 2018 #Nifty

Markets and News
The last week of May series starts on a positive note. There was a flat to negative close on Friday in US market and Dow lost 58 points. But that will not be a trigger today but what happened during weekend is important. Oil prices across the World have suddenly come down on the news that the top three oil supplying companies coming up with the news that they are planning to increase the supply on the growing demand. That has pushed Crude prices down and from close to 80 dollars Brent lost 5 dollars and now its trading at 74.8 dollars now. Asia is in the green now and that is a good news.
Domestic Cues
On domestics, there are quite a few fundamentals to look at. Bypolls for 10 assembly segments and 4 lok sabha seats today and their results will have a big impact. Any losses here means BJP will lose the majority mark of 272 in Loksabha. Another fundamental is the monsoon which is likely to hit Kerala according to met department as early as tomorrow. That will be the good news for the market. Plus there are some last set of Q4 results that are going to come today. First is L&T which will come up with numbers and apart from that PSU companies like NTPC, NMDC and oil marketing companies like IOCL will declare their Q4 today.
Derivatives Action
On the derivatives front, there was a massive buying that happened on the Nifty futures on Friday but the selling still continues as Nifty is inching higher. That has put the Nifty long positions at 47% which still means that there are 53% short positions. However in the options market puts are in demand and Put call ratio surged to 1.47 from 1.29 levels seen on Friday morning. The puts that are in demand are the 10500 and 10600 put where the positions went up as nifty was going up. 10700 and 10600 call saw some unwinding.
What is the Nifty and Bank Nifty call for the day?
The lower crude and positive Asia means we will have a slightly positive open around 10630-10650 zone and what happens from there needs to be seen. Remember that series high is 10930 and technically nifty has legs to go there. But 10800 will be a strong hurdle and for this series a long position now taken below 10650 with a target of 10720 can be taken. A hedge for that I would be suggesting during the course of the day.
Bank Nifty will be at 26300 and another long position there with 26500 is something you can look at, with some tight stop losses.

Market Trade Setup 25th May 2018 – #Nifty

Markets and News
Week 4 of the longest series running for 35 days comes to an end today and things are kind of settling down. The major fundamental is the Trump’s decision to cutoff the proposed meet with North Korea at Singapore. Not going well for Asia and Dow Jones reacted negatively to it. Second is the Fed’s decision to allow the inflation to go higher and accordingly rise the interest rates. So, in all probability, there would be a rate hike in Fed’s June policy. This fundamental has pushed the dollar index again and it started going to 94 again and this will have some impact on Rupee today.
Domestic Cues
On the domestic front, its not going great today as the Petrol prices went up for the 12th day running, making up for the losses for 1 month, when Govt did not change the prices due to Karnataka elections. The Brent Crude however has cooled off a bit and has settled at 78.6 dollars. The Q4 results however continue to come average with some companies like cummins which declared a bad set of numbers while Pidilite was good. Today also the action will continue with Bank of Baroda, the big PSU coming with their Q4 today.
Following are the Q4 results expected today.
1. Bank of Baroda
2. BEML
3. Good year tyres
4. Hindustan Motors
5. IDBI
6. Indian Hotels
7. Jagran publications
8. Jindal SAW
9. Sun Pharma
10. Tech Mahindra
Derivatives Action
On the derivatives front, the relentless selling by FII’s is continuing in the Futures market and the overall long positions has now dropped to 45% which is the lowest in this series. The premium has totally eroded and now Nifty futures are trading at a discount of 9 points. This is a bearish sign and unless there is a short covering the market won’t go down on this trend. The options market is also seeing a different trend today with a lot of put buying taking the Nifty put call ratio to 1.29 from 1.18 level. 10500 put add 9.3 lakh contracts and 10400 put added 5.9 lakh contracts while on the call side 10700 call added 6.1 lakh contracts.
What is Nifty and bank Nifty call for the day?
Asia is not positive and that means we will open flat around the 10520-10530 mark and what happens from there needs to be seen. 10550 will present a strong resistance and on the downside 10500 might offer support. Today is the weekend and positions will be closed in the afternoon leading to volatility. I would suggest you to wait and watch today. Avoid taking any positions and come back fresh on Monday morning to trade in options market in the expiry week.
Bank Nifty is more positive than Nifty and so any drop to 25900-25950 zone should be taken as a chance to enter into a long position to be taken to next week with 26150-26200 as a target. This is for weekly trade not intraday.

Market Setup 14th March

Markets and News

Just when we think things are going fine, something happens and yesterday it was Donald Trump with one tweet has removed Rex Tillerson as the US secretary of state which is a very important position and that triggered a volatility and a fall of over 150 points on Dow Jones and it now just clings on to its 25000 mark. Added to that is the Trump’s protectionist move imposing 60 billion trade tariff ban on Chinese imports which will also have a big impact. So, the rally that started with great US jobs numbers has almost fizzled away. Asia is in red with Hong Kong down more than 400 points. The other Asian markets are also in red.

Domestic Cues

On domestics India has its own worries adding to global worries. The great news of CPI and IIP fizzled out in hours and today we are encountering new fundamentals. The prominent among them is the RBI’s decision to ban LOUs with immediate effect. That means whatever money making opportunities that businessmen have on the arbitrage that exist between currencies is effectively removed by RBI. On the technical side 100day moving average of 10450 is acting as a big resistance now and that means Nifty is stuck between 10150 the 200dma and 10450 he 100dma. Bank Nifty is even more in negative territory with yesterday the big fall in the afternoon brought Bank Nifty back to below its 200dma and closed below it.

Derivatives Action

On the derivatives front, there was a lot of shorting that started on Nifty futures once the gains made in the morning started going off by afternoon but more or less the feeling yesterday till 1.30pm was that Nifty is now headed towards the 500dma which meant that there were equal number of short and long positions seen yesterday. On the options front there was a rapid short covering seen at 10400 call where 8 lakh positions were unwound. But the worst was 10600 call where 14.2 lakh contracts were unwound and 10700 call added 11.3 lakh contracts in anticipation of Nifty crossing 10600 level. On the put side 10500 put is being shorted yesterday and 150 rupees premium was on offer at this strike. 5 lakh contracts were unwound there and 10400 put has 6 lakh contracts were built up with 100 points premium. All this suggests 10300 is a floor and any move today below 10350 means there will be massive unwinding of positions will happen here. The Nifty put call ratio remained constant at 1.27 with equal number of puts and call positions taken yesterday.

What is the Nifty and bank Nifty call for the day?

Asian markets are in red SGX also is in red and that means Nifty will open gap down today around 10400 mark. What happens from there is something we need wait and watch. If 10350 is defended and if there is a recovery then we will have to see how close Nifty goes to its 100dma and whether it will make an attempt to break it or not. There is no point taking long position here where profit looks unlikely and short positions are too risky to take. At the hindsight you might feel that shorts can give you profit but money safe in pocket is better than any hindsight analysis. So observe the market than jumping into it.
The same story holds for bank nifty also but bank nifty is weaker than nifty. Yesterday it broke the 200dma effortlessly and gave an impression by 1PM that all the negativity is behind us. But suddenly everything collapsed and bank nifty is below its 200dma again. so unless bank nifty crosses 200dma or goes below 24500 there is no trade in bank nifty. If bank nifty breaks 24500 it opens some shorting opportunities. But for that to happen nifty also should go towards the 200dma of 10150. So, today is the day for observation than action