Finally, the Election Mahotsav arrives. The 7 phase polling that we would see for the next 38 days is going to be breath taking with strategies and counter strategies by the ruling party and the opposition. All in all, we are going to see the most crucial election in the recent time, crucial than the one which happened in 2014, which incidentally was my first election and the first time I cast my vote. The global markets are not looking that positive as Dow closed flat last night and all Asian markets are in red especially the Hong Kong which is down 200 points and Japan down 150 points. Brent Crude is still above 71 dollars and that continues to be a big worry.
Coming to domestics, market movement today will completely depend on how the first phase goes today. Farm distress, jobs and national security are the major issues that we are facing in this election and the first phase today is mostly concentrated in South India. 44 out of 91 seats, which is roughly half of the seats going to polls are from South India, especially AP and Telangana. 60 out of the 91 seats are the rural seats and what rural south India thinks about Govt is important. As such BJP has very less stake in the south and out of these 44 seats in South BJP holds just 4 of them. But things are different in other 47 seats of North, Northeast and Western India. There out of 47 seats BJP holds 34 seats so it is extremely crucial that BJP should try to hold many of them. The big challenge is the 8 seats in UP where BJP holds all 8 of them. All these are from western UP and with SP-BSP-RLD combine, BJP is facing a united opposition.
On the derivatives front, as Nifty fell close to 90 points yesterday, on the slew of bad news for BJP starting with the Supreme court verdict, there was selling that happened in the Nifty futures market. The Nifty long positions which fell to 67% have now fallen to 63% at the end of the day. In the options market, however, the demand for the call continued and the Nifty put-call ratio fell to 1.33 from 1.42 mark seen at the beginning of the day. Today is the Nifty weekly expiry and if we look at the open interest positions, 11500 put has the highest open interest, compared to 11600 put yesterday and 11700 call has the highest open interest. Right now Nifty is at 11584 which is almost the mid point.
What is the Nifty call for the day?
A red Asia means we will also open in the flat zone around 11580-11600 mark and as the options positions indicate today could be a day of volatility where market can test 11500 mark and even might go to 11680 mark. Much of it depends on how the elections of the first phase go, especially in Uttar pradesh and Maharashtra. Yesterday, you would not have taken positions, considering the fall and the volatility that Nifty has shown. If you have not taken a position, its good and do not go for any fresh position now. But if you have ended up taking a position then all that you need to do is to hope that you get a sharp up move above 11650 mark so that you can exit that position. Today is election as well as expiry so its time to wait and watch.
Today the talking point is not one but two states and both are the South Indian states. For the first time, these states will hold Lok Sabha elections as separate states. It’s the Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. Andhra Pradesh before bifurcation was the third joint highest seat state with West Bengal. After the division though Andhra got 25 seats and Telangana got 17 seats which total to 42 seats.
Fact Check: The total no of registered
voters in Andhra are 3.69cr which is compared to 3.68cr in 2014. Whereas
smaller state Telangana has got 2.8cr voters . So almost we have got 6.5 crore
people voting in this Lok Sabha elections 2019.
Andhra Pradesh is also going for Assembly elections along with the Lok Sabha elections. With both State and Central elections falling on the same day, and for many other reasons the Andhra Pradesh elections are much more exciting than the Telangana Elections. If we look at the contest, in Andhra this is going to be a 5 cornered contest. We have Telugu Desam Party (TDP), YSR Congress Party (YSRCP), Jana Sena+BSP+CPI+CPM, Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) and Congress (INC).
Off the 5 parties, Jana Sena is
the newly entrant party which is mostly dominated by the Kapu community, Pawan
Kalyan the party founder was clever to bring coalition with left parties like
CPI + CPM and also the Dalit party.
There is nothing to talk about
the Congress as the Congress is completely non-existent and are in complete
tough position. Same goes with the BJP who are not existent but are eager for
the fighting every seat.
When we look at the leaders from
parties: TDP has got lot of experienced people like Ram Mohan Naidu from Srikakulam.
Ashok Gajapati Vijayanagngram and Surya
Bhaskar reddy from Kurnool.
The opposition party has got two
leaders who are the relatives of Jagan Mohan Reddy and they are Avinash reddy from
Cuddapah, Mithun reddy from Rajampet.
Thus the fight for Lok Sabha 2019
in Andhra will be fought by 3 parties majorly. Congress and BJP might not win
even a single seat. YSRCP and TDP will be the parties who will win the most. The
point here is the entry of Jana Sena party has started to hurt TDP. That’s
because the voters of TDP also fall under the category of Kappu.
Now let’s look at the most
easiest State to estimate the results: Telangana
Firstly TRS has got no opponents who are strong enough to defeat KCR and his party in any seat. After the assembly elections the wave has proven the amount of support he has got from the people of Telangana. As expected TDP is not contesting the Telangana Elections. But Congress has decided that they will still fight and not give up. They have got people who have the ability to win in Telangana. Madhu Yashki goud from Nizamabad, Revanth reddy from Malkajgiri, Uttam Kumar reddy from Nalagonda and many more good leaders are fighting for Congress.
TRS will ride on their big
leaders and as well as on the Party’s and KCR wave. But the one seat which is
definitely in hands of KCR is the Nizamabad where Kavitha is contesting. The one which BJP will hope to win is the Secunderabad
seat which is gone to Kishan reddy.
If the magic of KCR is still
working, TRS will win 14-15 seats, Congress might win 1-2. This would mean it
is going to be a complete sweep.
Now, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana have got 42
seats and we have a completely new National alliance which includes AP and
Telangana and that’s called as Federal Front. Federal front has got TRRS and
YSRCP as members. Going by the figures it’s possible that Federal Front will
win almost near to 35 seats.
Till now we have looked at Four different
states from four sides of the Country. Maharashtra is in the favour of NDA, Tamil
Nadu will be held by DMK+Congress, West Bengal will be once again swept by TMC
which is the Third Front and AP+Telangana will be swept by Federal Front. Things
are turning really interesting!!
This is neither an exit poll nor an opinion poll. It was not done by taking any sample or meeting any voters on the ground. We have taken the data from the past, observed the trends of voting and percentage of votes at the first level. Then we looked at the candidates contesting, which party they belonged to before, as the second level. Then the third level is the campaigning done by top leaders of BJP and Congress and how they were able to swing the voters. All these are based on my observations and from the news reports.
The methodology adopted for each state is different and it is as follows
1. Telangana: We have only one election ie 2014 data which is relevant as the state was carved out from AP in 2014 and the political equations before were very different and hence irrelevant. Here we looked at every constituency and the votes polled for TRS and compared it with INC-TDP. We have not just taken a mathematical value but we based it on how many votes of TDP can be perceptually transferred to the Congress. For every constituency it is different. We have also taken into the note of the fact that the desertions that happened in TDP, INC and YSRCP and all of them went to TRS and how it can impact on the ground level. Many were given tickets in this elections also. So, we looked at the winnability of a candidate from that angle also. and projected individually for all the 119 seats.
2. Chhattisgarh: Here also we have gone constituency wise and we looked at the 2008 and 2013 elections and their results and the candidates who have been changed and the candidates who were kept constant. We also looked at the possible impact that BSP-Ajit Jogi combine will have on the elections and have come up with the forecast for the 90 seats.
3. Madhya Pradesh: Here we have gone region wise. We have divided Madhya Pradesh into 5 regions of Malwa, Bhopal, Mahakaushal, Vindhya Pradesh and Chambal and we have subdivided these 5 regions based on the 52 districts in MP. We looked at the data of 2008 and 2013 elections and have assumed and made projections on the fact that if there is a uniform 7% swing against BJP in this election from the 45% vote they got in 2013 what will happen to each region. We have averaged 2008 and 2013 and on that average, we took a 7% swing to project for the 230 seats.
4. Rajasthan: This is the toughest as no party got elected twice. so, taking 2008 and 2013 won’t be sufficient. So we went back and took 1998, 2003, 2008 and 2013 data which has 2 congress wins and 2 BJP wins and projected for 2018. We have divided Rajasthan into 7 regions of Bikaner, Shekhawati, Hadoti, Vagad, Mewar, Marwar and Dhundhar. There were many factors like Rajput anger on BJP, Anger against Vasundhara but positive perception of Modi, traditional BJP and INC strongholds that were considered. Like MP, for Rajasthan also we have gone for district wise predictions for all the 7 regions covering the 200 seats.
All this was done for an educational purpose and by combining analytics with ground level incidents and not taking any voter opinion. So, the accuracy entirely depends on how well we were able to capture the mood of the past voter and mixed with the present political dynamics and project the voting trends and converting them into seats.
The Weekend is here for the first week of December and what a forgettable week this has been! Dow Jones has fallen another 800 points and from there it recovered to close just 80 points in red. That 700 points plus recovery on US markets has sent a positive global signal. Fed’s statement that it will wait and watch before going in for rate hikes has pushed the sentiment. Asian markets have recovered and have come to the positive territory wit Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and China in mild green. The Dollar also has weakened a bit and Brent Crude also has fallen below 60 dollars again and now trading at 59.1 dollars per barrel.
Coming to domestics, today is the day of elections in two crucial states of Rajasthan and Telangana. BJP started as a big loser in Rajasthan and 3 months ago everyone was talking 130 plus seats for Congress and from there, things have dramatically changed. Rajasthan today has become as unpredictable as Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Telangana also has from a position of a cake walk to KCR has turned itself into a heated battle between KCR and Mahakootami. The market will get the feel of the sentiment by 2 PM today and we can see it getting reflected. Added to this is the exit poll results which will come today after market hours and that will lift some suspense from the results.
Coming to derivatives, yesterday also saw huge selling in the Futures market and the overall long positions in Nifty futures has come down to 56% from 57% and this is the lowest in the series. On the options front, the Nifty put-call ratio plunged to 1.44 from 1.63 seen at the beginning of the day. Lots of put positions taken on the long side were unwound and a lot of short positions in the calls was also taken. 11000 call has added 13.1 lakh positions, 10700call added 9.9 lakh positions and 10900 call added 4.8 lakh positions. On the put side, 10500 put saw 5 lakh positions taken out. 10900 put saw 3.9 lakh positions taken out. 10000 on put side and 11000 on call side still continue to have highest open interest. 10200 and 10500 puts are close and might add some open interest today.
What is the Nifty call for the day?
Finally the fall seems to have come to an end. We did nothing but watching it. One has to understand that stock trading is all about waiting patiently when unforeseen things happen, try to come out of it without panic. Global growth scare came from nowhere and took away 300 points from Nifty. Today we will recover some of it if other things go fine. Today Nifty will open gap up between 10660-10690 levels and 10750 is very much a possibility today on an intraday basis. If the sentiment in Rajasthan goes fine we can even see a close at 10750 levels. So, the losses that you made will be cut down drastically today. Hope for the best and wait for the next week when the actual results will be out!
In my last article on Politics I had written and Introduced what are the different ideologies that are being followed in the political landscape of India. In my previous post I have written on various political parties and their ideologies. Today I will continue the topic to take it to next level. I will speak about the Ideology less parties in the country. This is the one of the most sensitive topics I will be writing on.
Why Ideology is Important?
Firstly, I let me tell you that there cannot be any party which is minus ideology because it is the ideology that forms the core of the party. Like the Democrats in US have a center-left ideology where they give prominence to equality than religion and nationalism which is the ideology of Center-right Republican party. Unfortunately, in India there is lot of confusion on this left and right concept. Added to this is the confusion of regions coming in the way of the country. Examples are the TDP which was born more for restoring the pride of Telugu people and their dignity and TRS which was born to get a separate state of Telangana. Apart from these, there are many parties at the All India level that are based on caste like BSP founded by Kanshi Ram and headed by Mayawati is a party to protect the interest of Dalits in India. All these makes Indian democracy a game of thrones than the battle of ideologies.
Game of thrones remind me of TDP pulling Out of NDA!
Game of thrones remind me of TDP pulling out of NDA on the issue of Special Category Status which was promised at the time of division of AP. Now the BJP is quoting 14th economic commission which has no mention of special category status. Financial assistance to a state can be provided but special category status can’t be given. Every party knows this but now with elections just around the corner TDP to save face and go to people pulled out of NDA and not only that, it is also tabling a no confidence motion against BJP by aligning with YSRCP which is politically on the opposite ideology of TDP. Adding to irony it is the TRS support for TDP. Is this not so unsolicited action by TDP to join hands with TRS, remember TRS is the same party that was always against the Andhra and still are. All the TRS politicians made the Andhra people look like Pakistanis to the Telangana people. TRS Spoke about the jobs being looted by Andhra people. Now they also want to stand by TDP in supporting special category status.
See-Saw Games by Political parties
That’s the one part of the story. Other part and crucial part is that why is that people jump political parties. You jump parties when that party doesn’t give you what you desire. Will you change the party when you don’t get a party ticket or a minister post? This is a real big problem in the country. Neither the Voters nor the Politicians in the regional parties know the ideological differences, they only know the vote bank politics. Let the voters get themselves aware whom they are voting for, don’t vote for someone based on their promises and ever-changing manifesto, but vote for them on their ideology. To do that you need to first develop an ideology for yourself.
To end it finally, please don’t be a person who is ignorant about ideologies. Be either Right, Centre or Left. You need to have your own reasons for choosing the ideology and be bold about it. But the biggest negative is when you don’t have ideology because, a person minus ideology only tends to move towards the party in the trend! Don’t go with trend, go with your mind!