Breaking News: Record rains, Indian Monsoon is outstanding, IMD as predicted rainfall is at 100%. These are few headlines that newspapers and media are using to describe Indian Monsoon.
Great, another year of good monsoon is it? I would wait and say not too early!
Because it is not at all what as it looks. Let me explain you it the way it is.
When you see it’s raining for last 2 days at Hyderabad, you would think this year monsoon has been fantastic. When you read in papers that India got 330 millimetres rainfall till now against the normal of 330mm you would feel satisfied that the country as a whole is at normal. But have you seen how it is distributed across the country?
Was it uniform or is there a imbalance? Let’s look at the deficits in region wise and state wise.
North India +21%
Western India +4%
South India -8%
Eastern India -12%
One thing is very clear. India is not uniform. North and west have excess rains whereas South and East have less than normal rains.
Now lets see how they are distributed state-wise.
1. Andhra Pradesh +19%
2. Telangana +20%
3. Karnataka -19%
4. Kerala -25%
5. Tamilnadu -17%
6. Maharashtra 0%
7. Gujarat +26%
8. Madhya Pradesh -1%
9. Chattisgarh +1%
10. Orissa +5%
11. West bengal -20%
12. Assam -16%
13. Arunachal Pradesh -13%
14. North east states +5%
15. Bihar -4%
16. Jharkhand -24%
17. Uttar pradesh 0%
18. Uttarakhand +18%
19. Haryana +18%
20. Punjab +19%
21. Himachal Pradesh -4%
22. Jammu Kashmir +60%
23. Rajasthan +30%
Out of 23 states taken, 11 states have more than normal rainfall, 10 states have less than normal rainfall and 2 states have exactly normal rainfall. So, the rainfall is not equally distributed in all states. Some of these states are agrarian states and some are non-agrarian. Overall everything looks balanced but one needs to understand that its like half of the members of the family working, while other half is just wasting their time. That is never good for a family, likewise this is not good for the country. Some of the regions in these states are agriculturally very important. Lets look at the agricultural regions and how it is raining there.
Agriculturally important regions
1. Assam: paddy crop It has a deficit of -16%
2. West bengal: Paddy crop it has a deficit of -20%
3. Bihar: Paddy crop it has a deficit of -4%
4. Jharkhand: Paddy crop it has a deficit of -24%
5. Orissa: Paddy crop has a surplus of +5%
6. Coastal Andhra: Paddy crop has a surplus of +19%
7. Kerala: paddy crop it has a deficit of -25%
8. Maharashtra: Sugarcane and Cotton rainfall is normal at 0%
9. Uttar pradesh: Sugarcane and rice rainfall is normal at 0%
So, 5 out of 7 rice growing states have a deficit rainfall. Only Andhra and Orissa are good. This will affect the rice crop unless there is good rain in coming days.
Agriculturally not important states
1. Rajasthan +30%
2. Jammu kashmir +60%
3. Gujarat +26%
4. North east +5%
5. Tamilnadu -17%
6. Chattisgarh +1%
7. Telangana +20%
Most of the non agricultural states have got plenty of rainfall. That is the sad part. Telangana is not agriculturally important as it does not grow the food crops like rice or wheat in a sizable quantities. The other states are the states where rabi crop is more important and these states are Punjab and MP which grows wheat in winter and Tamilnadu which grows rice in November. so the monsoon is not as it looks. There is a deficit which we are not able to see. So, one needs to see it in the deeper way and understand the data. Let’s hope that the remaining period of monsoon is good and bridges all these gaps.
Following is the rainfall in last 24 hrs till 2.30pm today.
Following is the rainfall in important places of Telangana.
In my previous posts on monsoon I have introduced the four factors that affect the Indian monsoon. Once again, the list of the factors that affect Indian Monsoon are
1. ENSO – EL Nino southern oscillator
2. Mascarene High
3. Indian Ocean Dipole
4. Heating up of Indian mainland
There is a fifth and final factor that affects the monsoon and it happens in two phases. First phase in the last week of May and 2nd phase in mid of July. Today I will talk about the first phase of the fifth factor. That is the confirmation that we get by looking at the rainfall in 14 observational centers located in Lakshadweep, Kerala and coastal Karnataka. Minimum of 8 out of these 14 observational centers should record more than 2.5mm rain for 2 consecutive days for the declaration of the onset of monsoon.
Which are these 14 observational centers?
Here is the list with the rains recorded in last 2 days.
Lakshadweep 28th 29th
1. Aminidivi 0mm 2mm
2. Minicoy 11mm 4mm
3. Trivandrum 12mm 33mm
4. Punalur 6mm 56mm
5. Kollam 5mm 60mm
6. Allaphy 7mm 95mm
7. Kottayam 5mm 48mm
8. Kochi 51mm 47mm
9. Trissur 6mm 0mm
10. Kozikode 8mm 19mm
11. Talaserry 1.6mm 4.6mm
12. Kannur 4mm 1mm
13. Kasargode 11.4mm 0mm
14. Mangalore 0mm 10mm
11 out of 14 observational stations and 10 out of 14 observational stations have recorded more than 2.5mm rain. Minimum required is 8. So since the criterion was fulfilled they waited for south westerly directional winds to bring rain today. This happened between 1PM and 2PM in Southern Kerala in Trivandrum, Kollam and Kochi districts. So monsoon arrival has been declared by IMD. Monsoon came 2 days before scheduled date of 1st June.
So, what next?
Yes, monsoon has hit Indian southern coast Kerala. Which is a very good news for India as whole. Farmers are the happiest right now as the monsoon hits India bringing cheer in their hearts. Not just the farmers, Stock Market will also celebrate this news.
Does that mean that its going to be a good monsoon?
Does that mean that monsoon will arrive before time in the whole of country. The answer is yes and no. It may it may not. There should not be a El nino, Mascere high pressure should be maintained and IOD temperature gradient should be maintained. Then only monsoon will be excess or normal. So we will have to wait and watch.
Meanwhile here are the normal dates of arrival of monsoon in different cities in India.
Trivandrum 1st June
Chennai 1st June
Coimbatore 1st June
Kochi 2nd June
Bangalore 3rd June
Vijayawada 3rd June
Mangalore 4th June
Hyderabad 6th June
Goa 6th June
Visakhapatnam 7th June
Kolkata 7th June
Pune 9th June
Mumbai 10th June
Patna 12th June
Nagpur 12th June
Ahmedabad 14th June
Bhopal 14th June
Lucknow 19th June
Kanpur 21st June
Agra 25th June
Delhi 29th June
Shimla 30th June
Srinagar 1st July
Chandigarh 1st July
Jaipur 5th July
Amritsar 10th July
Jaisalmer 15th July
India has weighted rainfall of 887.5mm for every monsoon. India in last monsoon (2016) had rainfall of 862.0mm which is 3% lesser than the standard requirement. Likewise, every place in India has standard normal rainfall that has to be met to be called as good monsoon for that state.
For example: Telangana has normal rainfall of 755.2 mm and in last year monsoon it has received 889.8mm which is 19% more than the required making it excellent monsoon.
Next up is the arrival and withdrawal of the Monsoon. Monsoon covers the entire India by 15th July and starts withdrawing from 5th September. This withdrawal process goes on till 15th October which is the last day and that’s when monsoon exists India through Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka.
In the pictures added you can see the standard rainfall for each state and the actual performance of Monsoon 2016 and in the second picture you can look at the arrival dates of Rainfall in India across the states.
Wishing that the Monsoon stays long and give plenty of rain which will help farmers prosper and in turn help in India economic growth and also serve to the world by improving Agro-based exports!