Tag Archives: Rahul Gandhi

Indian Stock Markets are on a roll as Nifty rallies 2.5% in the last 4 days and 6.75% in the last 3 weeks!

Hello Everyone, this post is a continuation to the last week. In the last week, I had written and explained about the movement of the NIFTY during the General Elections 2014 and compared them to the present scenario. Nothing has changed when it comes to the political decisions are concerned in the last week, but the mood of the market has entirely changed. Last Tuesday NIFTY closed at 10987 and today it closed at 11301 which is 2.85% up move. The only big event that has happened in last one week is the release of election dates for Elections 2019.

Election Commission has decided the dates for the Lok Sabha Elections 2019 on Saturday. Seven phase election is scheduled to begin on the 11th of April and conclude on the 19th of May. Counting is scheduled to be held on May 23rd which is a week later than the last two General Elections. This week has begun on a very different note with NIFTY going up by 1.2% and 1.19% on both the days. This kind of move is only possible when there is a lot of buying in the Delivery channel. Delivery buying is the type of buying where the stocks are bought for investment purpose. Usually, delivery buying is for a minimum of 2 weeks to 3 months.

But should there be a rally before the elections and the important results?

Simply because markets are the leading indicators for the Indian economy. Leading indicator here means something which has the hint of future and tries to jump into the future for a better valuation. Markets everywhere read the future and they trade accordingly.

Who is this Mr/Ms Market?

Obviously, it is the Public. The market is we the people of the country. This includes the High net-worth individuals, individual investors, foreign investors, mutual funds etc. So it is basically the people’s opinion. Keeping it simple, we can call the investors as Domestic and Foreign. Right now we can say that 70% of contribution comes from Foreign investors and 30% comes from Domestic investors. That makes it more clear that the Foreign investors believe that there is positive news coming from the elections. The positive news here at the moment is the re-election of NDA to power.

That proves that it’s the people who take the market forward and these people include all kinds.

How long will this rally Sustain?

Going by the past rally during the General Elections 2014, it was seen that NIFTY was at 6000 at the beginning of February month and on the day of results NIFTY was trading at 7142. This is an astonishing growth of 19% in just 3 and a half months. Going by this simple equation, NIFTY has gone from 10600 in the middle of February to 11320 in the middle of March, which is again a 6.75% growth in just 1 month. With the results being pushed a week we can conservatively expect the Markets to hit 12,000 minimum on the results day. This will mean the Markets will move another 6% up from tomorrow. I repeat 6% is minimum growth it has got all legs to hit 10-12% as well. All this is on the narrative that BJP will come back to the Power in 2019 Elections.

What’s in the store for Investors?

NIFTY 50 Stocks and their returns during build up to General Elections 2014 and General Elections 2019.

Returns, High Returns!! Yes, in the last post also I have discussed how the stocks have made big money from March 2014 to May 2014. The average returns of the portfolio of the 10 stocks from NIFTY gave 31.38% in only 80 days. The same portfolio when calculated this year from Feb 28th till date i.e. 12th March has given 6.7% average returns. By going with the past trends it’s clear that you can make a minimum of 20% returns. Don’t wait and invest in the markets. Especially in the large-cap NIFTY stocks for safe returns. My feeling is obviously to invest and make ‘BIG’ money by the time counting day comes. #NiftyNeedsNamo

Okay! That’s about the Markets and Elections. If this is how interesting the Elections are turning out to be, how can one miss the action? I wouldn’t want to and I hope there are more like me. So, for the next 10 weeks leading to the counting day of Lok Sabha elections 2019, I will be writing posts relating to Elections 2019 for two times in a week. Once on a Tuesday and the other one on Friday. In these posts, I will be writing about the situations, opinions polls, who’s ahead and who’s losing, what each leader are saying and doing, and analyse the mood of the nation leading up to next 72 days!

Stocks that could be Big Winners for next 6 months, but just one condition!

General elections 2019 are just around the corner and the news channels have started the countdown for the big day. This time the battle is expected to be a cliff hanger and a last ball nail biter. There have been many blame games, dashes, cheap tricks, low level comments made by every possible politician. Unfortunate things have happened in the country in the last 1 month and India is fighting it hard and trying to compensate for the loss that we had. This post I will jump back to 2014 and bring out some interesting data oriented analysis from the Stock Market field to show how the stocks predict the winner much before the Exit Polls could.

Firstly, today NIFTY had a big rally after having a waiting game for last few days. Today NIFTY went up by 123 points to close at 10987, coinciding fact that on the first Tuesday of also 2014 NIFTY went up 125 points to close 6526 points.

Few points:

  1. NIFTY50 went up by 18.4% from March 2014 to May 2014 which is just 2 months and barring this year which has been a volatile year, NIFTY since BJP win gone up by 60% till March 2018.
  2. Stocks like Maruti Suzuki went from 1582 to 2386 which is 50% uptrend in just 2 months. The same stock since the 2014 Election is up by 271%.
  3. Random 9 NIFTY 50 stocks which have gone up by 40% and above.
  4. Maruti – 271%
  5. HDFC Bank – 169%
  6. HUL – 137%
  7. HDFC – 100%
  8. Cipla – 65%
  9. Bajaj Auto – 50%
  10. Axis Bank – 43%
  11. L&T – 43%
  12. ICICI Bank – 43%
  13.  Now let’s look at the same stocks and their performance from March 2018 to till date
  14. Maruti – (-19%)
  15. HDFC Bank – (-4%)
  16. HUL – 29%
  17. HDFC – 11%
  18. Cipla – (-18%)
  19. Bajaj Auto – (-2%)
  20. Axis Bank – 36%
  21. L&T – (-10%)
  22. ICICI Bank – (-4%)

Looking at the data of the stocks returns, it’s clear that there is a big uptrend in the stocks right after the elections. Interestingly well before the results could come stocks have rapped up very high returns. 2 months saw average of 25% returns for a Nifty50 stock with SBI making highest of 80% returns, followed by the stocks like Maruti, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank.

This small study is to bring out the possible stocks that could return good money if invested. Today was the day of a sign by Market. It all depends on whether this is a real trend or a false trend. It’s all going to be real tough to predict the winner of the 2019 elections but one always knows that the ruling party has got higher chance than any other party. As we are looking at the behaviour of the stock markets in the last 5 years and the last 2 months before elections. It’s also important that the investor decides the right stock which is only possible through proper study and obviously a little intuition and finally risk taking ability. Right now, the risk rates are very high and so will be the returns.

The condition for the above stocks to perform well and fetch you minimum of 20% returns in 2 months is victory for the ruling party.  Don’t hurry up and take positions tomorrow. Wait at least for a week to see if Nifty is really on an uptrend. If Nifty sustains and remains above 11000 then its time to re-invest again. I wold tell you how to do it in my next Tuesday post. Till then observe the trend.

General Elections 2019! Mid Year Predictions – Western India Region #LokSabha2019

 

Lok Sabha Elections 2019 Predictions – Western Region

Tuesday and its third consecutive post on the elections 2019 predictions. The contest is getting tighter and tighter and the competition for the Crown isn’t too far. By this time next year, we would be under the rule of ‘Newly Formed’ Government ‘BJP led NDA’ or ‘INC led UPA’. This time the contest is more going towards a two-party fight unlike previous elections. Yes, its not sure how many parties are going to join hands with INC in UPA but NDA is going to face tough task this time as reports suggest. Today it’s the Western Region and I have 132 seats under my prediction scanner from 5 states and 2 union territories. 5 states are Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Goa. Union territories include Daman & Diu and Dadra & Haveli.

1. Maharashtra: Let me start off with the most crucial state for the coming election and that is Maharashtra. It has the Highest number of seats at 48 of which BJP+Shiv Sena together won 42 in 2014. It was a sweep for BJP. This time around expecting that BJP will have coalition with SHS the predictions are made. Unlike last time, I feel that BJP+SHS might not do well and will see a fall in the seats. The damage is majorly because of Madhya Maharashtra going Congress way, thanks to an alliance with NCP. This way BJP is going down to 34 seats and Congress-NCP alliance is gaining 8 seats more to go to 14 seats. It can even get worse for BJP if they fail to keep Shiv Sena with them. If BJP fights alone the tally might comedown from 34 to just 15. We will see many events rolling up in the coming days in Maharashtra!

2. Gujarat: Last time on the back of Modi wave Gujarat was clean swept by BJP by winning all the 26 seats. But this time things have changed, when electorate gives 100% seats for a Party then it has got that power to develop and do well. From the assembly elections which happened very recently that was not to be. BJP struggled but finally won it for one more time. That unhappiness in the minds of people might be an advantage for Congress and they will be able to do the damage that’s going to change the things a bit. Saurashtra was the biggest problem for BJP in assembly elections. But this time its not going to be that easy for Congress to sweep Saurashtra. Personally, I feel INC might not capitalize and BJP will lose seats but not a big downfall. BJP will be able to take 21 seats and Congress will win 5 seats.

3. Rajasthan: Another jackpot state for BJP where they have won all the 25 seats in 2014 elections. Rajasthan is a very critical state. Assembly elections are nearing and the tide is not going in favor of BJP. Few People feel that Vasundhara Raje has not delivered enough and few are happy. Which few is majority is what we will see in the assembly elections in November. That will have big impact on the Lok Sabha Elections as well. My feeling says that BJP will lose it badly this time and I see BJP at 16 and Congress at 9. This is a big fall from 25 seats. The regions where BJP will be losing will be Alwar, Ajmer and Mewar regions. These regions have their own problems which BJP has to pay for.

4. Madhya Pradesh: In this three-region state of Madhya Pradesh, last elections saw BJP winning 27 and INC winning only 2. This is another state which will be up for polls this year November. It has been always a strong state for BJP and has got good leaders. That 27 seats winning was a big achievement for BJP which they will not be able to achieve in the coming elections 2019. One of the reason being the farmers unrest. Always BJP has been winning this state since last 3 terms with very good majority. So, it’s going to be really interesting to watch how the results fare. With the news and data, I have got, I feel that BJP will come down big to 18 from 27 and INC will increase to 11 from 2. This is majorly due to the drop in the seats of BJP in Maha Koshal and Malwa regions. They will be able to maintain their 2014 tally in Madhya Bharat region.

Apart from this out of 2 seats in Goa, 1 each will go to INC and BJP. Other two union territories will both go to BJP. That’s how the Western India Elections Predictions looks like.

Till now from the three regions it now looks to be a very tight race as NDA is at 214 seats and UPA and others are at 203 seats. So out of the predicted 417 seats NDA has got 214 seats and UPA plus others gets 203 seats. That 203 seats includes all other independents and other smaller parties. What needs to be seen is how many will leave or stay with UPA or NDA. BJP as per the predictions made needs 60 more seats from the available 126 seats to come from Northern India.
This is really going to the last stage and we will all have that climax after 2 weeks! Next week am taking a break from the predictions and my North Indian Predictions for the remaining 126 seats will happen in two weeks’ time!

Till then, keep waiting…keep counting!

The Battle for the Stock Market Favorite State of the Country – Gujarat!

The Battle for the Stock Market Favorite State of the Country – Gujarat!

Gujarat assembly elections feels like India’s Lok Sabha Elections. They have become the talk of the Political circles in India and in the major Countries in the World. So many reactions and so much of coverage. Many debates and too many strategies plotted by both the Political parties to win the throne. It’s like a Must Win game for Congress to at least take some pride going till 2019 or its game end. BJP is not free from fear, they are equally in need of regaining the throne. 22 years of Gujarat and above all it’s the Place of Modi. They cannot afford to lose this state. People across the globe are watching and no party wants to walk with heads down by the end of the battle.

Campaigning has been going neck to neck with both the parties throwing arrows. Congress went too much by calling the PM Modi Neech, Kapil Sibal lost the battle hands down against Subramanyam Swamy in the courts for Ayodhya. BJP politicians call Modi as the Baap of India and this statement has been taken as disrespect to Mahatma Gandhi by the Congress. With all the negative comments Congress have lost that edge and second favorite to win the election. That said the first phase of Gujarat elections is already done and voting percentage was seen at 68-70%. Many reports claim win for BJP and equal number of reports claim Congress will win it. If this is how it looks let’s look at what ‘Satta Bazaar’ decides and talks.

Satta Bazaar: Gujarat Predictions

Satta Bazaar gives 3 predictions for BJP

  1. If BJP gets 110-124 seats you would get 1.50 for every 1 rupee you bet. Suppose you bet 1 lakh you get 1.5 lakh if BJP gets anywhere between 110-125 seats.
  2. If BJP gets 125-149 seats you would get 3.50 rupees for every one rupee you bet. Suppose you bet 1 lakh you will get 3.5 lakh if BJP gets anywhere between 125-150 seats.
  3. If BJP gets 150 seats and above you would get 7.00 rupees for every rupee you bet. Suppose you bet 1 lakh rupees you will get 7 lakh rupees if BJP gets 150 seats and above.

Satta bazaar gave 2 predictions for Congress

  1. If congress wins upto 75 seats you get 1.10 for every rupee bet. Suppose you bet 1 lakh rupees you get 1 lakh 10 thousand if congress wins anywhere upto 75 seats.
  2. If Congress wins upto 100 seats you will get 3 rupees for every rupee bet. Suppose you bet 1 lakh rupees you get 3 lakh rupees if congress wins anywhere between 76-100 seats. No one is betting on Congress winning above 100 seats.

General Predictions by Satta bazaar

  1. The rate for BJP victory is 50 paise for 1-rupee bet, which means everyone thinks BJP will win.
  2. The rate for congress victory is 2 rupees. It means if Congress wins and forms govt you get 2 lakh rupees for every 1 lakh rupee bet.

Looking at these betting figures and odds also its clear that BJP sets to win Gujarat with ease but if congress gives a shocker to BJP its going to be immediate loss to Bookies. What happens to Gujarat if Congress wins later is story to discuss on later date.

All we can now do is to wait till the 18th of December!