Tag Archives: Politics

What’s the outlook for Indian Stock Markets for the next 3 months?

What’s the outlook for Indian Stock Markets for the next 3 months?

Politics is one of the major fundamentals in the movement of the Stock Market. Generally, markets react very sharply to any kind of unfavourable measures taken by the Govt for the economy. So when it comes to elections, the moment the ‘markets’ don’t get the desired result the reaction would be severe to watch. There are days when Stock markets have shown rapid upwards and downwards movement riding on the outcome of the elections. Till early 2012 stock markets were solidly behind UPA led by Congress. But a series of scams that took place later changed the sentiment and from mid-2013 it wanted the NDA led by BJP to come to power.


The measurement starts from February 2014, exactly 5 years ago when there were opinion polls that put NDA ahead of UPA. That is where Nifty started its journey from 6000. This mark of 6000 was reached way back in 2008 and from then on Nifty was stuck there. By the time results came towards the end of May Nifty scaled 7000. Then the victory of BJP in Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Haryana in late 2014 pushed it to 8000 mark. Just before the results of Delhi and Bihar in March 2015 Nifty scaled 9000. But the losses for BJP in both the states pushed Nifty back all the way to 7000 and from there it started its journey back again upwards. Just before demonetization, Nifty scaled 9000 again November 2016 but it took the massive victory of Uttar Pradesh in March 2017 that made Nifty to capture 10000. The subsequent victories in Gujarat in November 2017 and Karnataka in early 2018 pushed Nifty to 11000 mark. But that was the end. The losses in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan brought it back to 10500 levels and now we are back to the situation again we started 5 years ago, with Lok Sabha elections, just around the corner.

Here are the dates of different elections in the past for your reference.

2014 May – General Elections
2014 November – Maharashtra, Haryana & Jharkhand
2015 March – Bihar & Delhi
2016 November – Demonetization
2017 March – Uttar Pradesh
2017 November – Gujarat
2018 April – Karnataka
2018 December – Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh & Rajasthan

If the things really turn out to be negative for BJP and if so-called 3rd Front supported by Congress forms the Government, we are to see a big fall in the markets and NIFTY could well go to 6000 mark yet again. This 6000 mark is something that Nifty tested in 2008, 2010 and 2014. Now we might go back to where we have started. Even if Congress forms a minority Govt also thing won’t be different and we might test the 6000 levels. In another scenario, if things change for good and BJP starts gaining its momentum in the last few left out days, with the mood of the Nation NIFTY will also react positively and it can hit 11,000 after the budget. This is only because of a positive feeling about the Govt.

Once the results come in for the BJP then we shall see the NIFTY moving all the way towards 12000 and by the time Modi takes the oath again, he will be welcomed by another all-time high of 12000 on Nifty, just like how it welcomed Modi in 2014 with an all-time high of 7000! So, interesting 100 days ahead of us!

Bhagavadgita Chapter 16 Daivasura Sampad Vibhaga Yoga Verse 14

Chapter 16 Daivasura Sampad Vibhaga Yoga Verse 14

Asau mayaa hatah shatrur hanishye chaaparaanapi; Eeshwaro’hamaham bhogee siddho’ham balavaan sukhee.

“That enemy has been slain by me and others also I shall slay. I am the Lord; I enjoy; I am perfect, powerful and happy”.

Interpretation

After talking about materialistic things and the wealth that a person has gained, Lord Krishna in this shloka talks about a few more things that a person in demonic nature does. If a demonic person defeats or kills an enemy, he says I did it to him, now I will do it to everyone who opposes me. A sense of pride gets into him. With that proud feeling, he will start calling himself the Lord. He will say that my job is only to enjoy because I have defeated all my enemies. He also will start seeing himself to be perfect, powerful and both these qualities will make him happy, says Lord Krishna.

Extending Interpretation to Mankind’s Life!

99 out 100 people who were Kings in the previous time and rulers in the present time, all have these qualities described above. For the sake of power and wealth, Kings used to attack other kingdoms and the winner who wins the war loots the whole wealth of that kingdom and also kills the defeated King. Throughout the World we have seen numerous battles like this for power and position. In fact, Arjuna raised this fundamental question at the beginning of Gita itself to Lord Krishna. Lord Krishna then differentiates this fight which is fought in the name of Dharma to the other fights, where the aim is power. 

If you see the rulers of today, who we call as politicians, many of them are corrupt and we have the least faith in them. If you feel that today’s rulers don’t do criminal acts, then you should know that at the panchayat and Zilla Parishad level more than two thirds of the elected have criminal records and even if we look at the highest body like Lok Sabha, the present Lok Sabha has 36% of its MLAs facing criminal trials. Times change but people don’t. A person with demonic nature always have a feeling to finish his enemies and enjoy their power and wealth and that only gives him happiness. 

India’s 1% Richest get richer by 39% in the year 2018 and the bottom half only by 3%!

A day ago, I had read an article that was released by many websites on the Income levels throughout the Globe. This study comes from the Oxfam, Oxfam is a group of 20 charitable organizations working in 90 countries working for reducing the poverty. So, I decided to give my view on the findings of the research by Oxfam which is being presented with a strong ‘bias’.

Below are few highlights brought out from the study:
  1. The study reveals that Billionaires saw a 12% increase in their income levels per day and the poor half of the people saw their wealth decline by 11%.
  2. India’s top 1% richest people have seen their wealth increased by 39% whereas the bottom half saw only 3% increase in their wealth.
  3. The Study also revealed that 10% of India’s who are poorest remained in debt since 2004.
  4. India’s top 10% people hold 77.4% of India’s total wealth and top 1% hold as high as 51.53% wealth and 60% of India’s population which is the majority holds only 4.8% of India’s wealth.

These facts were presented in an article in such a way that India’s rich are looting India and blaming the Govt for not doing anything to India’s poor population. People started commenting on the ‘ache din’ concept and then the other side of people started hitting at 70 years rule of Congress. The blame game went on for most of the comments. I would want to make very few points and educate the uneducated.

Let’s say there is a family who has taken debt and is expecting someone to come from heaven and pay off the debt, is it going to happen? Debt once taken has to be repaid by the working person who took the debt by earning money. If you fail to do so, you are going to be called as debt holder till the time you clear them. Why people take debt is something which depends on the individuals who are not to be discussed. Secondly, the article also talks about Rich getting Rich and Poor getting poor, the fact is that Rich have money to send their kids to better schools and give knowledge. Whereas the poor don’t have the luxury of sending the kids to good schools. So obviously rich kids get the best possible results.

Next, how are these Rich making money? Is it not because of their hard work and the way they run their business? Absolutely yes. We can definitely ask Government for helping the poor in better health, better facilities etc but all in all the efforts are something which needs to come from the individuals. We cannot at one place and keep complaining or blaming others for our failure. Nobody will take you the sky if the sky is one’s goal he needs to work hard and show some real strength to reach the heights. Putting up the easy tagline of Rich becoming Rich and Poor becoming Poor will only waste 5 more seconds in your life. Understand it’s the reality. As a saying goes, Blame nobody for being born poor but blame yourself for dying poor.

Finally, Rich and Poor discrimination should not be justified in terms of Money, much crucial and rewarding than money is the ‘Knowledge’ which builds character which in turn can help you to build a rich empire. Money is needed but not in excess, the only thing that has no delimitations even if it’s in excess is ‘Knowledge’.

Market Trade Setup 11th December #NIFTY

Market setup 11th December

What started as global growth fear has escalated into a huge domestic scare with a series of events yesterday pulling Nifty down more than 200 points and we have cues today that can take markets another 200 points down or wipe out all the losses that we got yesterday. The US has finally recovered from the losses that were made till yesterday and closed almost flat. Asia is also in the flat to green just like the US market but India will not be bothered about all that. It will also not bothered about the fact that Brent Crude has reached 60 dollars per barrel. India will have its own fundamental and that fundamental is Urjit Patel and 5 state elections.
 
Coming to domestics, its the election results day and the exit polls suggest a 2-1 victory of Congress in 3 states and markets were factoring in 1-2 for Congress. A 3-0 win for Congress could result in another 200 point fall. A 3-0 win for BJP would mean all the losses that Nifty made yesterday will be wiped out.
 
So, you have a lot of volatility and a lot of things to look for. Added to this is Telangana where though BJP has nothing directly, but indirectly if TRS fails to get a majority then it could come in the picture as it has already offered to support TRS. Mizoram is the last Congress state standing and a loss here would mean we have a congress mukt Northeast. A 3-0 loss to Congress means we will almost have a Congress mukt Bharat except for Punjab and Karnataka where it’s in a fragile coalition. Urjit Patel resigning might be a news of the past and we will talk about it some other day.

 

What is the Nifty call for the day?

We cant even predict the open as everything depends on the election trends. As of now Congress is in lead in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh while Chattisgarh is going tight. This is just postal ballots so we cant conclude anything from this. I present two scenarios here. Scenario one where if Congress is sweeping the 3 states, wait for the reaction to get over and allow Nifty to fall another 200-300 points and look to enter with a long position then. The other scenario is where BJP is winning then you can enter into a long position quickly. You can wait for my updates as the election builds up. For now, just watch the results.

Market Trade Setup 10th December #NIFTY

Market Trade Setup 10th December

Firstly today Nifty is going to open on a big gap down and the entire blame of it need not be taken by the exit polls. Friday was a horrible day for the US market where Dow Jones lost more than 550 points on the fears of global slow down is being a reality now. NASDAQ is even-more worst as it lost more than 3% and the Brent Crude has risen by over 5% and quickly it moved from 59 dollars to 62 plus dollars on the back of a cut in oil production and a drop in US weekly inventories. Asia is also in deep red today morning with all the markets down by more than 1%. Hong Kong and Japan are close to 500 points down. 

Coming to domestics, we have many problems to deal with. First is the fiscal deficit which comes at 2.9% of GDP up to Q2 of this financial year. It is a very bad sign as spending is very high and the Govt is unable to control it. Brent Crude going up more than 3 dollars will put pressure on some of the oil marketing companies but the news we can’t ignore is the Exit poll results. There were 9 exit polls which were conducted for 3 states of Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh. For Rajasthan, 8 out of 9 exit polls say Congress is going to win and 1 exit poll predicts a slender win for BJP. In MP 5 exit polls predict win for Congress and 4 exit polls predicted win for BJP. In Chattisgarh 4 exit polls predicted a win for Congress and 5 predicts a win for BJP. So, not a good news for the markets. 

On the derivatives front, the last one hour of trade saw some bullish positions coming onto the market. Though the Nifty futures positions remained stagnant with longs and shorts almost in equal, the options market saw Nifty put-call ratio going up from 1.44 to 1.47 levels. 10500 put added 4.9 lakh positions, 10600 put added 4.6 lakh positions and 10000 put added 4 lakh positions and 10000 put now has the maximum open interest at 41.9 lakh positions. On the call side 11200 call added 5.1 lakh positions and 11100 call added 3 lakh positions and 11000 call though has shed open interest, it Chhattisgarh the highest in open interest. All this will change today if nifty opens big gap down.

What is the Nifty call for the day?

Global slowdown fears, increased Crude prices, worsening fiscal deficit and exit polls throwing up possible losses to BJP will mean we will have a huge gap down of more than 120 odd points and we might open around 10550 zone and that means we will be back to protecting 10500 again. On the downside 10480-10500 will offer support and a rally in the late day might take Nifty past 10600 mark. So, I suggest going long on this fall around 10520-10550 levels with 10620 as the target

Indian General Elections Predictions 2019 – Mid Year Predictions – #LokSabha2019

BJP will not win a majority, but nobody else other than BJP can form a Govt in 2019!

Hello Everyone. Tuesday is here and I am back with my final post on 2019 Elections Predictions. I have in my last 4 posts on elections predicted the seats that the parties are going to win in the coming 2019 elections. We have seen that it is BJP which is ahead but not enough to win the elections on their own capacity. Apart from this there are few more very important points to be considered which are crucial. Standing on today as per the present situations my predictions are given below:

NDA = 289, UPA = 104, Third Front = 90 and Fourth Front = 60!

NDA
  1. BJP                         240
  2. JDU(Bihar) 19
  3. Shiv Sena             16
  4. Others                  14
UPA
  1. INC                        78
  2. DMK                     5
  3. RJD                       8
  4. NCP                      4
  5. Others                 9
Third Front
  1. TDP                       8
  2. Kamal Haasan    6
  3. CPI/CPM              8
  4. TMC                      30
  5. SP+BSP                 32
  6. Others                 6
Fourth Front
  1. TRS                       10
  2. YSRCP                   13
  3. Rajinikanth         19
  4. BJD                       16
  5. Others                 2

So, it is wrong to assume that all the Non-NDA and Non-UPA parties are in the third front. You also should understand that there is a Fourth Front which is opposite to the third front and cannot align with the third front. So, if UPA aligns with third front, it won’t get the support of fourth front. For example, TRS cannot align with congress because it is directly fighting Congress in Telangana. Similarly, TDP cannot align with YSRCP because they are fighting each other in AP. That presents me with 5 takeaways from the predictions I made in last 4 weeks.

  1. BJP is all set(?) with the help of its allies to retain the power in 2019!

BJP is sitting on 240 seats and by adding the seats of its allies the tally goes to 289. Which means there are 49 seats which are coming from its allies. BJP last time had 282 seats and this time they are at 240 seats and that’s fall of 42 seats. The two parties with maximum support to BJP are Shiv Sena and JDU in Bihar. These are the two parties which may change their minds at the eleventh hour. Though it’s not alarming news for BJP its surely a call to do something big to come back to power on its own. Because we never know in politics who jumps the castle.

  1. Third Front is not as strong as we think because we have Fourth Front which got emerged from third front!

Not very long ago there were articles written and posted on the birth of ‘Third Front’ which as per a class of journalists would form the next Government of India. So to put this argument to an end, my predictions give Third Front just 90 seats. That’s not even 1/3rd. If we add congress seats to Third front the tally goes to 194. That is nothing close to majority. The Fourth Front is the actual new born baby because there was a cold war between parties of third front and that lead to unofficial withdrawal. That has brought fourth front into scene which may not support BJP directly but give outside support if needed. So 60 seats are huge number and let’s remember that a coalition made out of 10 parties can never rule country!

  1. BJP is losing seats in Northern India and Western India but it is picking up seats in Southern and Eastern India.

BJP overall has 240 seats which looks to be a good number, but when you look into the statistics you will know that BJP is losing in the strong holds like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Maharashtra. Each state there is fall of average 30% fall in the seats won compared to 2014. But the good news being the BJP’s has strengthened in Eastern India and Southern India. Though there is gain in south and east the gain is not good enough to beat the fall in west and north India.

  1. This is perfect battle because the BJP’s Loss is INC’s gain!

If we see BJP is losing 42 seats from its 2014 tally of 282 and INC is winning 34 seats more than what it won in 2014. It shows how nicely INC is able to hit the areas where BJP is losing. We can even conclude that these numbers were won by BJP in 2014 majorly because of Modi wave. The loss of 40 seats is not big in a General election but it’s the pick that matters. That’s where Congress is doing really well to pick up the seats which BJP is losing.

  1. Will BJP form the Govt or Will the Karnataka Scenario hit the Nation in the month of May 2019?

Yes, BJP has 240 seats and its alliance combined takes it to 289 which is 15 seats more than the Majority mark. But the big worries for BJP are coming from Nitish Kumar of JDU whose 19 seats could cost them the majority.  Shiv Sena which is somehow dissatisfied with BJP and if Shiv sena moves out then NDA seats will fall further to 254. That will also mean UPA+Third Front tally will go to 194+16+19=229.  If leaders like Mamta Banerjee, then somehow manage to get KCR and Naveen Patnaik on board to support from outside then that 229 gets another 26 seats which takes their total to 255.

So now we are at NDA 254 and UPA+ThirdFront+JDU+Shivsena+BJD+TRS at 255. The climax then shifts to Tamilnadu where Thalaiva Rajnikanth is expected to win 19 seats. Whoever gets those 19 will cross that magical figure of 272!!

Knowing Rajnikanth well, it’s not tough to say that he will throw his weight behind Modi than behind Congress or Kamal Hassan.

So, final conclusion is that as per the present situations if elections are conducted, it is clear that BJP will win the 2019 elections in any conditions until or unless there is drastic change in the political scenario! Hope you liked this five-part series of mid-year 2018 predictions!!!

General Elections 2019! Mid Year Predictions – Northern Region #LokSabha2019

Lok Sabha Elections 2019 Predictions – Northern Region 

So I am back with the Elections Predictions on this Tuesday. The journey of predicting for the General Elections 2019 which started on 29th May is going to complete the region wise picture today and next week will be the All India picture. When we last visited election predictions and stopped with Western India Predictions, NDA was sitting at 214 seats and UPA at 203 seats with 126 seats left. Today you will know who will be the people’s choice in 2019 elections. But just few words before talking about the North Indian states, this predictions thing has seriously helped me in understanding the politics in the country. Someone who had restricted himself to Telangana, now has good knowledge on almost all the states.

Fine, so coming to the Northern Indian region of India. We have 7 states and Chandigarh here with 126 seats. Out of the 126 seats it’s the Uttar Pradesh which takes 2/3rds with 80 seats and rest 46 divided between other states. Let’s see if UPA is going to do any harm to NDA or will NDA retain the power in 2019!

  1. Uttar Pradesh: The Big State with 80 seats which was the jackpot for BJP in last elections is looking to be a disappointment this time. 2014 saw BJP winning as many as 73 seats and SP+BSP put together winning only 7 seats. This was a huge victory for BJP. This time though BJP will have to taste the bitterness as the predictions show that BJP will fall to 48 and SP+BSP alliance is looking to come back strong and win 32 seats. It is only in Paschim Pradesh or Western UP where BJP is kind of sweeping with 19 out of 28 but not as good as 2014 where it had won 25 seats. Avadh the minority dominated region and a strong hold of SP will be setback as BJP which won 11 last time out of 14 is now dropping to 6. Purvanchal is yet another disappointment for BJP, in the 2014 elections BJP has won 31 out of 32 and this time they are falling to 19 seats. It’s a victory for SP+BSP as they are jumping from 1 seat to 13 seats. And from the last region of 6 seats Bundelkhand BJP is losing 2 seats compared to 6 they won last time. Big point is I am expecting Rahul Gandhi to lose the election to Smriti Irani from Amethi.
  2. Jammu and Kashmir: To the top most state of the Country, in the last elections BJP was in alliance with PDP and it was a great move as they went on to win all the 6 seats. PDP won 3 from Kashmir region which has about 98% Muslim population, BJP won 2 seats in Jammu and 1 seat from Ladakh. We know that the alliance is no more in place and BJP will not and cannot win anything in Kashmir so straight they will fall to 2 as Ladakh is also looking difficult for BJP.
  3. Punjab: The only state where Congress is in power after 2014 elections. Akali Dal and BJP lost the assembly elections badly and Congress came back to the power in 2017. This will really effect the BJP+SAD and their numbers will drop to just 5 out of 13 seats. AAP has lost all its value and will not win anything. INC will gain majorly and will be up from 3 last time to 8 seats now.
  4. Delhi & Chandigarh: The capital has got 7 seats and BJP had clean swept all the 7 seats in the last elections. This time though due to some political problems and anti-incumbency will make way for Congress. Expecting BJP to lose 2 seats and might win 5 seats. From Chandigarh the only seat will go to Kirron Kher from BJP. Congress might win the remaining 2 seats in Delhi.
  5. Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh: Two states which are Pro BJP and I am not seeing any trouble for BJP. Both together there are 9 seats, Uttarakhand 5 and Himachal Pradesh 4. In 2014 BJP won all the 9, expecting BJP to do the same in 2019.
  6. Haryana: Another state which has the feeling of anti-incumbency and it will hurt BJP. Last time BJP has won 7 seats out of 10. This time with the fall of 2 seats BJP will retain 5 seats. It is the Indian National Lok Dal which is going to gain more due to the political issues in the state.

These are the predictions for the Northern Indian region and the race of prediction for the regions has come to an end. My predictions for the Northern India gives BJP 75 seats, INC 12 seats and others at 39 seats. Which takes the tally of BJP or NDA to 289, UPA to 95 and others to 159. With no confirmations on who will join whom and whether the present coalition parties will stay or not these numbers still look dangerous even though NDA might cross the majority mark. BJP+Allies as of now are at 289 without adding any support from South Indian states. In my South India predictions, we have seen Rajinikanth winning good numbers. There is always chance of parties jumping here and there.

Next week will be my concluding post where I will give you state by state figures for all the states and also will tell you how many seats BJP alone can win. Will it be less than 272, then how much less it will be and who are the partners it can bank upon. Wait for the concluding post on 3rd July, you will surely find it interesting!

General Elections 2019! Mid Year Predictions – Western India Region #LokSabha2019

 

Lok Sabha Elections 2019 Predictions – Western Region

Tuesday and its third consecutive post on the elections 2019 predictions. The contest is getting tighter and tighter and the competition for the Crown isn’t too far. By this time next year, we would be under the rule of ‘Newly Formed’ Government ‘BJP led NDA’ or ‘INC led UPA’. This time the contest is more going towards a two-party fight unlike previous elections. Yes, its not sure how many parties are going to join hands with INC in UPA but NDA is going to face tough task this time as reports suggest. Today it’s the Western Region and I have 132 seats under my prediction scanner from 5 states and 2 union territories. 5 states are Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Goa. Union territories include Daman & Diu and Dadra & Haveli.

1. Maharashtra: Let me start off with the most crucial state for the coming election and that is Maharashtra. It has the Highest number of seats at 48 of which BJP+Shiv Sena together won 42 in 2014. It was a sweep for BJP. This time around expecting that BJP will have coalition with SHS the predictions are made. Unlike last time, I feel that BJP+SHS might not do well and will see a fall in the seats. The damage is majorly because of Madhya Maharashtra going Congress way, thanks to an alliance with NCP. This way BJP is going down to 34 seats and Congress-NCP alliance is gaining 8 seats more to go to 14 seats. It can even get worse for BJP if they fail to keep Shiv Sena with them. If BJP fights alone the tally might comedown from 34 to just 15. We will see many events rolling up in the coming days in Maharashtra!

2. Gujarat: Last time on the back of Modi wave Gujarat was clean swept by BJP by winning all the 26 seats. But this time things have changed, when electorate gives 100% seats for a Party then it has got that power to develop and do well. From the assembly elections which happened very recently that was not to be. BJP struggled but finally won it for one more time. That unhappiness in the minds of people might be an advantage for Congress and they will be able to do the damage that’s going to change the things a bit. Saurashtra was the biggest problem for BJP in assembly elections. But this time its not going to be that easy for Congress to sweep Saurashtra. Personally, I feel INC might not capitalize and BJP will lose seats but not a big downfall. BJP will be able to take 21 seats and Congress will win 5 seats.

3. Rajasthan: Another jackpot state for BJP where they have won all the 25 seats in 2014 elections. Rajasthan is a very critical state. Assembly elections are nearing and the tide is not going in favor of BJP. Few People feel that Vasundhara Raje has not delivered enough and few are happy. Which few is majority is what we will see in the assembly elections in November. That will have big impact on the Lok Sabha Elections as well. My feeling says that BJP will lose it badly this time and I see BJP at 16 and Congress at 9. This is a big fall from 25 seats. The regions where BJP will be losing will be Alwar, Ajmer and Mewar regions. These regions have their own problems which BJP has to pay for.

4. Madhya Pradesh: In this three-region state of Madhya Pradesh, last elections saw BJP winning 27 and INC winning only 2. This is another state which will be up for polls this year November. It has been always a strong state for BJP and has got good leaders. That 27 seats winning was a big achievement for BJP which they will not be able to achieve in the coming elections 2019. One of the reason being the farmers unrest. Always BJP has been winning this state since last 3 terms with very good majority. So, it’s going to be really interesting to watch how the results fare. With the news and data, I have got, I feel that BJP will come down big to 18 from 27 and INC will increase to 11 from 2. This is majorly due to the drop in the seats of BJP in Maha Koshal and Malwa regions. They will be able to maintain their 2014 tally in Madhya Bharat region.

Apart from this out of 2 seats in Goa, 1 each will go to INC and BJP. Other two union territories will both go to BJP. That’s how the Western India Elections Predictions looks like.

Till now from the three regions it now looks to be a very tight race as NDA is at 214 seats and UPA and others are at 203 seats. So out of the predicted 417 seats NDA has got 214 seats and UPA plus others gets 203 seats. That 203 seats includes all other independents and other smaller parties. What needs to be seen is how many will leave or stay with UPA or NDA. BJP as per the predictions made needs 60 more seats from the available 126 seats to come from Northern India.
This is really going to the last stage and we will all have that climax after 2 weeks! Next week am taking a break from the predictions and my North Indian Predictions for the remaining 126 seats will happen in two weeks’ time!

Till then, keep waiting…keep counting!

General Elections 2019! Mid Year Predictions – Eastern India Region #LokSabha2019

Lok Sabha Elections 2019 Predictions – Eastern India

Tuesday it is and its Psephology again for 2nd week running. As promised this post will be concentrating on the Eastern India’s predictions for general elections 2019. As part of Eastern India, I have taken West Bengal, Orissa, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar and North East states – Assam, Mizoram, Manipur, Tripura, Meghalaya, Nagaland and Sikkim.

  1. West Bengal: Starting off with the most crucial state of West Bengal. Bengal is a Strong hold for the opposition and is a potential place for third front. West Bengal politics was in news in last few days for the havoc that we have witnessed in the Panchayat Elections. Though the people of West Bengal still believe in Didi – Mamata Banerjee – few sections of people are changing their view and we could see a major fight for seats. There are chances that Sourav Ganguly might get in as well. Not confirmed yet. There are 42 seats in total and this is divided into 3 regions. They are Gorkha land, Hooghly region and the third is the Burdwan region. In the three regions Gorkha Land is the only place where BJP is strong and is supposed to do well. Apart from this it will get one, two seats from other two regions. Problem for BJP is the absence of a strong leader in West Bengal.

 

  1. Orissa: Not much to be spoken about this Biju Patnaik’s State which has vested power in Naveen Patnaik for almost 20 years now. Very much like West Bengal where BJP doesn’t have much to say, BJP is also not a big player here. But in last 2 years or so, BJP is making every effort to take the opposition spot vacated by Congress. Still there are some places like Bargarh, Sundargarh and Bhubaneshwar where BJP can smell the victories. Looks a tough fight for BJP and BJD will easily win this.

 

  1. Chattisgarh: BJP is too strong here to lose and let the opposition parties win the battle. So, my predictions aren’t going to change from what it has achieved in its last elections. 10 of 11 is what BJP will get. In 2014 and in 2009 elections also BJP got 10 out of 11 seats here.

 

  1. Jharkhand: Another easy state for BJP. In the power in this state since the time State was formed. Either as coalition or Single party. No major heart breaks with respect to anti-incumbency will be relief for BJP. Situations Looks like BJP will lose one of its seats to INC.

 

  1. Bihar: Bihar is always unpredictable state because we have leaders like Lalu and Nitesh Kumar who are the best friends and best enemies as well. One cannot say if Nitesh will stay with BJP or change his stance. But as of now things look very good for BJP and this coalition of BJP and JDU will be the big win in the eastern India. There will be lot of swing that can happen where BJP will lose its seats to INC/RJD and RJD/INC will lose its seats to BJP. This can be crucial for BJP. Bihar is divided into 4 regions, the tirhut region which is adjacent to Nepal, the Kosi belt, the seemanchal region dominated by Muslims and the Magadh region which is the center of power with 17 out of 40 seats. Whoever does well in Magadh will take Bihar and this time too BJP-JDU combine is likely to do very well in Magadh.Things can change but as of now BJP looks like losing 2 seats to opposition.

 

  1. North Eastern States: The Seven Sisters though have very less seats compared to other states. They will play big role in determining the winner in the Eastern India. Overall North East has 25 seats with highest seats coming from Assam. BJP has turned everything upside down in last 4 years and it has been sweeping in the assembly elections off late in north east. Assam, Tripura, Meghalaya and others. Expecting a big jump for BJP here, which will be a big add to their tally. Expecting BJP to score as high as 19 out of 25.

This is how the Eastern India Predictions look like with just less than a year to go for Lok Sabha elections. The tally after the overall prediction for Eastern India brings BJP 82 seats out of 153 seats while the INC sits at 21 and others at 50. BJP though is ahead of Others+INC in Eastern India by 9 seats, both Eastern and Southern India combined the tally stands at 122 compared to 163 for the opposition. If all the parties do come together BJP then this numbers look dangerous for BJP. Good news is when you compare BJP’s tally, it was 88 both East and South combined in 2014 but now it has jumped to 122. A big boost for BJP.

Next week I will be back with Western India, where there are no others. It’s a direct contest between BJP and Congress and in 2014 BJP literally swept every state and let’s see how many of it can they hold in 2019 and how much of a comeback Congress has made.