Tag Archives: Politics

Market Trade Setup 22nd April #Nifty

Last week of April and the expiry week is here. This week has some very important cues, one being the election and the noise of Rahul’s nomination, sexual harassment charges on CJI and its impact on the key judgments waiting to be delivered and the continuing Q4 results that will impact the companies. On Thursday, US markets closed in the positive territory up 110 points but that is very old news. Yesterday’s terror attacks in Sri Lanka where 200 people lost their lives has a major impact on the growth and stability across the World. Added to that are the worries of rising crude prices for India. Crude oil has crossed 73 dollars and its trading at 73.5 dollars now. Asia today is flat with some markets in a mild positive zone and some in a mild negative.
On the domestic front, the focus today will be the Q4 results of Reliance and HDFC that came on Friday evening and Saturday respectively. After many quarters Reliance has disappointed in its petrochemical business with margins disappointing and even Reliance Jio which was having a dream run till last quarter has seen a fall in growth in the number of subscribers, revenue as well as Average revenue per user. So, overall disappointment from Reliance. That disappointment was made up by HDFC which came up with very good numbers. Added to this we have plenty of news from Amethi, where scrutiny of nominations will take place today and the final decision on the AAP-Congress alliance in Delhi and Haryana will be taken today. Tomorrow is the 3rd phase polls as well as the last day for filing nominations for 6th phase, which includes Delhi.
On the derivatives front, we had the 3rd weekly expiry of the April month and it happened on a good volume and turnover of 21.63 lakh crore and that’s heartening. Now, the focus shifts to the April monthly series expiry which will happen this Thursday. Last Thursday we saw a heavy buying in Nifty futures which indicates that there could be some more upside that market saw on the day when 2nd phase polling was happening. We will have to see its impact going into this monthly expiry. The Nifty put-call ratio, however, came down from 1.82 levels to 1.71. 11400 put added 5.1 lakh positions, 11650 call added 2.3 lakh positions and 11600 call added 1.9 lakh positions and 11500 put still has highest open interest of 28.4 lakh positions. On the call side 11800 call added 6.9 lakh positions, 12000 call added 6.8 lakh positions and 11900 call added 5.2 lakh positions. 12000 call still has the highest open interest.
What is the Nifty call for the day?
After 3 day holiday, we are opening today and the opening might be a bit flat around 11730-11760 zone and 11720 is a support that will come. The 11670-11700 is a big support zone and should hold today. Also, a lot of open interest has come on Thursday for 12000 call and we need to see if it continues. If it does, then we can look at 11850 which is all time high being tested and even broken this week. That might take us to 12000 levels also. A lot, however, depends on the election related fundamentals and we need to look at them carefully. So, for today, I would suggest that if you get a dip around 11720 levels or below that, then go for a long position. If Nifty drops below 11670 mark before 10.30am today, then don’t take any positions. Any dip from 11670-11720 levels would be an opportunity to enter again with 11800 as the target. If you have previous positions then keep 11800 as a target to exit them.

Orissa and Gujarat – Far from each other but not very different politically. #LokSabha2019 #IndiaVotes

Today we shall look at the history and the two states which are on the two corners of India. One on the east is the Odisha and one on the west is Gujarat. There are quite a few similarities between these two states yet the parties in power in both the states are different.

Let’s look at some interesting facts:

Starting with Gujarat. It was in the year 1995 that first-time BJP came to power and is still in power even after 24 years. There has been no anti-Incumbency against BJP. Gujarat in these 24 years has made development do the talking. There has been high urbanization of the state, no backwardness, no heavy dependency on the Agriculture. Gujarat is known for one of the top states into industrial space and also the services sector. Gujarat has become the centre for sectors like Pharma, Textile, Diamond, Petro-chemical sectors and of course Stock markets.

Now coming to Orissa, it was in the year 1999 that BJD party was given power by the people of Orissa. And the same party is ruling Orissa for 20 years and is fighting for 5th term along with Lok Sabha Elections 2019. There has been no anti-Incumbency here too. But then the drawbacks here are that Orissa is still backward and has a high tribal population in poverty. High poverty and lowest urbanization are seen everywhere except Bhubaneshwar and Cuttack.

With these many differences how is that both the parties are enjoying victories for so many years? Simply Development! Gujarat Govt BJP has been giving all the possible facilities to the traders to improve their trade and commerce. Traders thus have been backing Gujarat for many years. Recently, in the 2017 assembly elections Saurashtra which is agriculture driven area went to Congress but then areas like Kutch, Surat, Baroda, Ahmedabad have voted for BJP and saved them. This was right after the GST and Demonetisation.

On the other side, Orissa’s Biju Janata Dal Govt is known for constantly focussing on uplifting the women and the tribals. The Self-help group started by BJD has really helped the people of Orissa. Naveen Patnaik’s policy of leaving the tribes on their own with full autonomy helped them to get the tribal vote.

Both the states have been a leader-centric and backed their respective leaders, Narendra Modi since 2001 in Gujarat and Naveen Patnaik since 1999 in Orissa.

All about Lok Sabha 2019 – Naveen Patnaik had come to elections in 1999, with an alliance with Atal ji’s BJP. Of the 21 seats then BJD+BJP won 19/21 and Congress won just 2. The same alliance in 2004 won 18 seats, BJD 11, BJP 7, INC 2 and JMM 1. Once Atal Ji retired, Naveen Patnaik separated with BJP and in 2009 Naveen Patnaik fought all alone, where he won 14, CPM 1, Congress 6 and BJP nil. With BJP losing grip in Orissa, Modi and Shah in 2013 decided to build BJP in Orissa by going independently. In 2014 within 6 months of time, BJP won 1 seat while BJD won 20. Though this was a bad loss, this wiped out Congress and opened doors for BJP. Recently held Panchayat elections BJP was the party with the highest number of seats.

Odisha elections are happening in 4 phases: 
• 1st phase 4 seats
• 2nd phase 5 seats
• 3rd phase 6 seats
• 4th phase 6 seats

In 2019 elections, according to the projections from opinion polls, BJP might win 11-13, BJD 8-10 and nothing for Congress. Naveen Patnaik is turning old and losing the charm and there are no leaders who can take forward the legacy. This is advantage BJP. And Sooner or later Orissa will be ruled by Right Wing party for the first time in its history.

Coming to Gujarat, all the 26 seats of Gujarat are voting in the 3rd phase on 23rd of April. The previous election in 2014 was a big victory as BJP swept to win 26/26. This time, BJP is expected to easily win the 16 seats in Gujarat region comprehensively while Saurashtra and Kutch might offer some resistance. Still, BJP is expected to sweep Gujarat winning 22-24 seats, leaving just 2-4 for Congress. Modi’s personal popularity and his Gujarati tag will help him there.

Overall for 47 seats of Gujarat and Orissa – BJP is expected to win 33-37 seats, UPA 2-4 seats and BJD 8-10 seats.

2nd phase of Lok Sabha Elections 2019 #IndiaVotes #LokSabha2019

1st phase of Lok Sabha elections 2019 got successfully completed on 11th of April with the voter turnout reading at 69.4%. This 69.4% is notch higher than the overall 2014 elections turnout of 66.40%. We are 2 days away from the 2nd phase and the last 5 days after the 1st phase got over, things have gone wild for both the parties. Election Commission banned Modi biopic right before 1st phase and now EC has banned several leaders from campaigning for their communal or unethical usage of words. Yogi Adityanath for 72 hours, Mayawati for 48 hours, Azam Khan for 72 hours and Maneka Gandhi for 48 hours. These are some big events in the last 5 days.

18th is the day of Second Phase and this time there are 96 seats which will go for polling on Thursday. Vellore seat polling has been cancelled after huge amounts of cash were seized in the house of a DMK leader. Like last Tuesday, First, let’s look at the top 10 constituencies of the Phase 2 elections.

1. Thoothukudi: Tamil Nadu is all about DMK and AIADMK. With sympathy running high it’s expected that DMK will win or rather sweep entire Tamil Nadu. But last few days things are getting better for AIADMK-BJP combine. Tuthukudi is the place where state BJP president Dr Tamilisai Soundarrajan is taking on Kanimozhi, the favourite daughter of Late Karunanidhi. With sympathy factor intact, things look a bit tough for Tamilisai.

2. Chennai Central: Sam Paul is contesting from PMK which is another ally of BJP. But then this is not going to make any difference as it seems, Dayanidhi Maran from DMK, two time MP and brother of Kalanidhi Maran is expected to win this seat back.

3. Nilgiris: We have the 2G scam acquitted A Raja from DMK fighting against Thyagarajan from AIADMK. This seat is more important for the people and it’s for them to decide either to vote a corrupt leader or someone else.

4. Siva Ganga: Another blockbuster place. After Chidambaram, we have seen that his son Karthi being pushed into politics. Yet another dynasty mode of politics starting in Tamil Nadu. Will Karthi win his father’s seat or are the corruption charges on the family will prove costly for them? This time BJP candidate H Raja is taking Karthi Chidambaram at Shiva Ganga.

5. Bangalore North: This is the seat of former CM and Union minister DV Sadananda Gowda. This looks more or less like a victory for BJP until or unless any miracles save Congress;

6. Mandya: Interesting story coming from this constituency. Nikhil Kumaraswamy the son of HD Kumara Swamy and the Grandson to Deva Gowda is fighting against the actor Ambareesh wife Sumalatha. Sumalatha is going Independent but is being supported by BJP. The Story is, though JDS and Congress are fighting together, there is a section of Congress leaders from Mandya who are secretly supporting Sumalatha. So, will Sumalatha stage an upset and win Mandya or will Nikhil trump her to retain this traditional JDS seat?

7. Chikballapur: This could be one of the easiest win for INC in South India. Bacchegowda is contesting from BJP but then his opponent is Veerappa Moily from Congress. Veerappa Moily has been a Minister of Petroleum, Corporate affairs, Power in UPA and has been a powerful leader from this region. With JDS also supporting him, the caste equations indicate a clear victory for Moiley.

8. Mathura: Going back to North India. We have Hema Malini contesting from BJP and Mahesh Pathak from Congress. Hema Malini as we know is the famous actress and for the first time, Dharmender campaigned for the Party and his Wife. Hema Malini has already won LS Seat before and will be looking to continue the same this elections.

9. Fatehpur Sikri: This is going to be the close contest between two leaders from BJP and INC. BJP has fielded Sadvi Niranjan Jyothi who is known for her controversial remarks on the opposition. On the other side we have Raj Babbar the actor from Congress. Close contest.

10. Srinagar: This is a going to be an easy win for NC Congress. Farooq Abdullah is the famous J&K leader and no doubt he would win this Seat and we will all see 80 plus Abdulla triumph again from Srinagar.

Coming now a little bit to the statistics, the second phase elections will cover 12 states and the union territory of Pondicherry. Tamil Nadu is the only state where all constituencies are going for polls while in other 11 states it going to be just another phase of the election.

There are totally 1590 candidates in the fray and let’s look at the 2014 results.

List of winners for this 96 in last elections: 
• Tamil Nadu (38) NDA 2 UPA 0 Others 36
• Pondicherry (1) NDA 1 UPA 0 Others 0
• Karnataka (14) NDA 6 UPA 8 Others 0
• Orissa (5) NDA 0 UPA 0 Others 5
• Chattisgarh (3) NDA 3 UPA 0 Others 0
• Maharashtra (10) NDA 8 UPA 2 Others 0
• North East (7) NDA 4 UPA 2 Others 1
• West Bengal (3) NDA 1 UPA 0 Others 2
• Bihar (5) NDA 1 UPA 4 Others 0
• Uttar Pradesh (8) NDA 8 UPA 0 Others 0
• Jammu Kashmir (2) NDA 1 UPA 0 Others 1

So out of the total seats 96,
• NDA won 38
• UPA won 12
• Others won 46

Before ending the post today thought the number of seats that BJP holds look smaller in size one needs to go little deep. Of the 38 seats by NDA, only 27 are held by BJP which means 11 are coming from allies. So diving into the data, we must understand that in the last elections BJP went with only 1 ally (PMK) in Tamil Nadu and won 2 seats. One each shared. This way if we see, BJP has got an alliance with AIADMK now and this is going to be crucial. The mood of Tamil Nadu is quickly changing and the possibility of winning 8-10 seats is very much there for NDA.

The same way BJP is making inroads in Bihar, Bengal and Odisha where BJP tally will improve from 2014. If the results from these three states come good and in the other states if NDA holds on then we can see that NDA may win in the range of 40-45 seats. Not much time left, let’s wait and watch how the 2day of polling goes.

Election drama from the ‘K’ States in South India. Kerala and Karnataka. #LokSabha2019

South Indian dishes are so different from North India just like the politics of South India and North India. Like North India, South India doesn’t actually vote for the National Parties but they chose regional parties over the National parties. It’s the same when it comes to Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. But then there are two states Kerala and Karnataka which are in line with the North Indian states.

Both Kerala and Karnataka have had the history of voting National Parties to power which is why we don’t get to see major regional parties in these two states. Kerala for its own reasons revolves between Congress and CPM. Karnataka votes between Congress and BJP. The late 20th-century entrant into Karnataka was Deva Gowda’s JDS.

Karnataka had been a special place for Congress till 1991 where they had won almost 80%-100% seats from 1951 to 1991. Of the total 28 seats in Karnataka, Congress was winning 25-28 seats till 1991. Things changed then and the major shift happened in 1996 when JDS led by Deva Gowda won 16 seats and became the Prime Minister. Then the second shift happened in 2004 where Karnataka started to vote for BJP and BJP was winning anywhere between 17-19 seats.

Karnataka is divided into four regions. Below are the regions and the seat numbers part of those regions.

  • Mumbai Karnataka which has seats like Belgaum, Hubli etc
  • Coastal Karnataka which has seats like Mangalore, Udupi etc
  • Hyderabad Karnataka which has news like Gulbarga, Bellary, Raichur etc
  • Old Mysore which is the largest with 13 seats that include Bangalore, Mysore, Tumkur etc

Of the 28 seats and in the four regions, BJP will win in Mumbai Karnataka and Coastal Karnataka as these are traditional BJP seats and they are with BJP for last 15 years. These two regions are strongholds of BJP, Hyderabad Karnataka and Old Mysore are the JDS+Congress strongholds. With JDS and Congress coming together the vote share will surely increase for the coalition which will pose a challenge to BJP. This time there could be a vertical split with 28 seats going 14-14 to BJP and Cong-JDS combine. This is only because of Cong-JDS alliance else, BJP would have again crossed 18 seat mark.

Kerala the fortress for Communist Party of India (Marxist), but only alternatively.

Kerala has been the place for CPM and Congress for a long time. Kerala is divided into two regions, North Kerala and South Kerala. Kerala has got 20 seats and the polling for all the 20 seats will be on April 23rd. In the 2014 elections, UDF led by Congress won 12 seats and LDF led by CPM won 8 seats. That’s the competition between the Congress and Communist party in Kerala.

There are some surprises which could come up in this elections in Kerala and that could be a win for BJP for the first time. BJP is hoping to win two seats. One is the Thiruvananthapuram seat which they lost by a small margin and second is Thrissur which has sizable Hindu population and from where famous actor Suresh Gopi is contesting from BJP ticket. One seat where BJP can give some competition to CPM is the Kasargode seat where religious polarization due to the killing of RSS workers might make the Hindus to shift votes to BJP.

But the tide is expected to be in the way of Congress this time with 14-15 seats coming their way. Wayanad is the seat that has caught all the attention after Rahul Gandhi has nominated himself from there, this decision of Rahul is being highly trolled by BJP. But then ultimately, Wayanad is a strong seat for Congress and with Rahul contesting it’s going to an easy job for INC and Rahul Gandhi to become part of 17th Lok Sabha. CPM is losing badly this time with just 3 seats coming their way and BJP could be the surprise with 2 wins and 1 very tough race.

So, of the 48 seats from Karnataka and Kerala, Congress is expected to win 28-30 seats, 14 each from Karnataka and Kerala. BJP is only expected to win 15-17 seats. The other 3 seats are going to CPM. This means that the ‘K’ states are giving huge wins for UPA led by Congress.

Market Trade Setup 9th April #Nifty

BJP manifesto took the market down, down to 11550 zones and later recovered to cross 11600 mark and close above that. I was talking about Nifty going to 11580 levels yesterday if the manifesto is not liked by the market and it has happened. If a 11800 close yesterday would have catapult Nifty to 13000 by June, it has now taken away that possibility and we could now see a nervous move ahead and it might want another good news coming from anywhere before it starts to resume the journey again. Globally things were not so great and Dow closed 90 points lower on the forecast that Q1 results for the US are not likely to be in the expected range. Asia is flat to negative with both Japan and Hong Kong down 50 points each and only Singapore and Taiwan are in a mild positive zone.

Coming to domestics yesterday was a clash between BJP manifesto vs Congress’ NYAY. Where Congress focused on the bottom 5% of poor with 72,000 per annum cash transfer, BJP focused on populist schemes aimed at farmers. A slew of measures like a loan at zero interest, farm pensions and cash transfers are going to put pressure on the fiscal health and was not liked by the market that much. Added to this is the pressure coming from Brent crude with crossed 71 dollars now and trading at 71.1 dollars. Rupee also lost 45 paise yesterday and now has reached 69.67 per dollar and all the good work was done to bring it to 68.3 lost out in just 2-3 sessions. Nifty has 20 dma at 11470 mark and that is going to be strong support even if there is some fall happening today. So, we need to look at 20 dma carefully.

On the derivatives front, there was a different reaction in the futures and options market. While there was selling in the day but buying resumed by afternoon in the futures market, the options market has shown one-way traffic and that is the demand for the calls. That has brought down the Nifty put-call ratio from 1.61 to 1.50 and there was the closing of positions seen on many strikes on the put side. 11600 put has the highest open interest at 12.6 lakh while 11500 put also has 12.2 lakh open interest. This is very close so if 11560 doesn’t hold today then we can see Nifty going to 20 dma of 11470 mark. On the call side, 11700 call added 10.7 lakh positions yesterday and it has the highest open interest now at 21.6 lakh. so 11720 is a strong resistance for this week’s expiry. So, unless there is fundamental news, till Thursday expect Nifty to be in 11560-11720 range with a danger of Nifty slipping to 11470 on ant bad news.

What is the Nifty call for the day?
A flat Asia means we will also open in the flat zone between 11600-11620 mark and 11560 continues to be very strong support. Good news might take Nifty to 11680-11710 zones and if that happens, exit positions and book mild profits. Your positions are stuck for almost 3 days now and you need an exit route and let’s hope that this exit route comes today. If things turn to worse and Nifty corrects to 11500 mark, patiently, as things are looking more likely on the upside than on downside in the next 1-2 weeks. No fresh positions to be taken today. 

Market Trade Setup 3rd April #Nifty

Yesterday markets went as per the predictions at every step. I said Nifty will take support at 11650 and will be facing resistance at 11720-11740 zone and close in the range. It turned out to be exactly the same. The moral of the story is, whenever the market gets predictable for many, it changes its texture. Are we in the consolidation phase that could change the texture of the market needs to be seen. Globally things look stable as US market consolidated a bit after a 300 point rally and ended 80 points in red. Asian markets also opened in the mildly red territory this morning but as the day is progressing, Asia is turning greener. So, we have Japan up 150 points and Hong Kong up 250 points and all the other Asian markets are also in green. Brent is now the reason for worry as it is almost approaching the psychological mark of 70 dollars, trading at 69.7 dollars now. Rupee, however, is on the downside is at 68.7 to a dollar now.
On the domestic front, the big news that came was the Supreme court judgement that struck down the April 12th circular issued by RBI. Now the companies need not be dragged to IBC on default of over 90 days and a loan will not be called as a stressed asset if there is a delay in the payment between 1 to 89 days. This is a major setback to RBI and when RBI is discussing monetary policy, we need to see how much impact it will have on their decision. On the monetary policy front, there is a 100% probability of rate cut with 80% chance for 25 bps cut and 20% chance of a 50 bps cut. Coming back to Supreme Court judgement, RBI now has only two options. One is to re-approach the SC with a review petition and the second is to come up with a fresh draft by dropping some controversial clauses that were added earlier. Apart from that we also had an election manifesto by Congress and it failed to build up the required buzz and ended as a 1-hour event.
On the derivatives front, there was a pick up in the long positions in Nifty Futures again and the long positions in Nifty Futures have jumped to 68% again. The premium is also healthy at 56 points and all this show some bullishness. On the options front, the Nifty put-call ratio went to 1.52 from 1.48 on the demand for short puts. 11700 put added maximum open interest yesterday of 4.2 lakh positions and thus 11700 put now has maximum open interest for tomorrow’s expiry indicating that 11660-11680 is very strong support. On the call side, 11900 call added the same 4.2 lakh positions and 11900 call is slightly ahead of 11800 call as the strike with maximum open interest. So, we now have a situation where today and tomorrow we can gravitate between 11680-11820 and if by chance we get a 50 bps rate cut then we can see Nifty going past 11880 mark. For monthly expiry however 11500 put and 12000 call have the highest open interest.

What is the Nifty call for the day?

Yesterday, you would have exited your positions for a 60-70 point profit and today we will have a positive start with Nifty opening in 11720-11740 range which is a strong resistance as of now. Are we going to see an all-time high today or immediately after the policy announcement at 11.45am tomorrow needs to be seen. Nifty has the resistance zone extending up to 11770 levels and till the time that is taken out decisively, we cannot move towards 11850 mark this series. Otherwise, this series expiry will be around 11800 mark. So, my call for the day would be, if you get a dip after the morning highs, you can get into another long position between 11680-11720 with 11760-11800

NTR Mahanayakudu – A Movie that teaches you the qualities of a Leader!

NTR Mahanayakudu – A Movie that teaches you the qualities that a leader should and should not possess. This political life of the legend NTR has got some Drama!

  • Cast: Bala Krishna as Nandamuri Taraka Rama Rao, Vidya Balan as Basavatarakam, Kalyan Ram as Hari Krishna, Sumanth as ANR and Rana Daggubati as Chandrababu Naidu. 
  • Story, Screenplay and direction: Krish Jagarlamudi
  • Music: MM Keeravani

Not so long ago we had seen the movie NTR Kathanayakudu, the movie life story of India’s first Superstar NT Rama Rao making all the noise at the Box office. Though the money made wasn’t big enough to be called a Hit movie, the story of NTR has touched the hearts of the fans of NTR. There has been a visible change in the theme of the 2nd part after all the action coming from RGV’s Lakshmi’s NTR. The first part was very well accepted by the fans as it was completely on Cinema Life.

But the 2nd part got controversial with two different stories doing the talks about the NTR’s political life.

The movie starts with the recap of the life of NTR from his birth to the time he starts the political party Telugu Desam. NTR flashes the colours on the Wall and designs the Flag of the party telling out the meaning of each element in the Flag. That’s where his political life starts and decides to move across the state of Andhra Pradesh to reach out to the public and understand their issues. It was a wonderfully structured campaign by the NTR and supported by his son and the family.

His speech and his ideas for new schemes had taken the opposition by surprise and they have started to hijack those schemes. NTR crashed off them by saying that he would bring much more change when he gets the power. This way his every speech was a profit for the party and eventually, he becomes the Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh.

Sadly, he had some foxes and snakes in his party who were against the popularity of him and the way the party was handled by NTR. They get together to put him down and wanted to bring him down, which was successful when NTR and wife Basava Tarakam had to visit America for the Medical attention. This is where the movie takes off and every scene was building up the drama. The important role of Nara Chandrababu Naidu played by Rana Daggubati where the director shows the hard work of CBN to keep the party and the MLA’s together in the crisis.

If this is the drama that went around in his political life, his political life also had some fantastic schemes. He was the one to have introduced a scheme where he has given kg rice for 2 rupees. His power kept the naxalism to minimal. He introduced women empowerment schemes wherein he made it mandatory seats for women travellers in the public transport and giving an equal share for women in the property. The major scheme that backfired him from his fellow MLA’s was the Lokayukta Act which enabled any citizen to question any person in power or general person.

The movie could’ve spoken about the life of NTR till his death but it was restricted till the death of his wife Basava Tarakam. This was a high point but the producers played safe by not putting out anything after 1985.

There are obvious controversies about the movie and the way it portrayed CBN and there is no end to that. Even after the Lakshmi’s NTR the controversies wouldn’t stop so moving out of these controversies, I would say that the life of NTR ended on a very bad note, as he entertained his fans as an actor and worked for their development after turning into a politician.  But what he lacked was political understanding, that’s a big mistake. We should work for the people and their wellbeing but we should also be ready to face the consequences and battle them. His determination is what to be appreciated and to be adopted by the people of this generation. Only with the Hard Work, one can achieve his goals, which was proved by him again when he goes for campaigning 2nd time across the State.

Believe and Work hard for your goals and you’ll see them accomplished in no time!

What’s the outlook for Indian Stock Markets for the next 3 months?

What’s the outlook for Indian Stock Markets for the next 3 months?

Politics is one of the major fundamentals in the movement of the Stock Market. Generally, markets react very sharply to any kind of unfavourable measures taken by the Govt for the economy. So when it comes to elections, the moment the ‘markets’ don’t get the desired result the reaction would be severe to watch. There are days when Stock markets have shown rapid upwards and downwards movement riding on the outcome of the elections. Till early 2012 stock markets were solidly behind UPA led by Congress. But a series of scams that took place later changed the sentiment and from mid-2013 it wanted the NDA led by BJP to come to power.


The measurement starts from February 2014, exactly 5 years ago when there were opinion polls that put NDA ahead of UPA. That is where Nifty started its journey from 6000. This mark of 6000 was reached way back in 2008 and from then on Nifty was stuck there. By the time results came towards the end of May Nifty scaled 7000. Then the victory of BJP in Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Haryana in late 2014 pushed it to 8000 mark. Just before the results of Delhi and Bihar in March 2015 Nifty scaled 9000. But the losses for BJP in both the states pushed Nifty back all the way to 7000 and from there it started its journey back again upwards. Just before demonetization, Nifty scaled 9000 again November 2016 but it took the massive victory of Uttar Pradesh in March 2017 that made Nifty to capture 10000. The subsequent victories in Gujarat in November 2017 and Karnataka in early 2018 pushed Nifty to 11000 mark. But that was the end. The losses in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan brought it back to 10500 levels and now we are back to the situation again we started 5 years ago, with Lok Sabha elections, just around the corner.

Here are the dates of different elections in the past for your reference.

2014 May – General Elections
2014 November – Maharashtra, Haryana & Jharkhand
2015 March – Bihar & Delhi
2016 November – Demonetization
2017 March – Uttar Pradesh
2017 November – Gujarat
2018 April – Karnataka
2018 December – Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh & Rajasthan

If the things really turn out to be negative for BJP and if so-called 3rd Front supported by Congress forms the Government, we are to see a big fall in the markets and NIFTY could well go to 6000 mark yet again. This 6000 mark is something that Nifty tested in 2008, 2010 and 2014. Now we might go back to where we have started. Even if Congress forms a minority Govt also thing won’t be different and we might test the 6000 levels. In another scenario, if things change for good and BJP starts gaining its momentum in the last few left out days, with the mood of the Nation NIFTY will also react positively and it can hit 11,000 after the budget. This is only because of a positive feeling about the Govt.

Once the results come in for the BJP then we shall see the NIFTY moving all the way towards 12000 and by the time Modi takes the oath again, he will be welcomed by another all-time high of 12000 on Nifty, just like how it welcomed Modi in 2014 with an all-time high of 7000! So, interesting 100 days ahead of us!

Bhagavadgita Chapter 16 Daivasura Sampad Vibhaga Yoga Verse 14

Chapter 16 Daivasura Sampad Vibhaga Yoga Verse 14

Asau mayaa hatah shatrur hanishye chaaparaanapi; Eeshwaro’hamaham bhogee siddho’ham balavaan sukhee.

“That enemy has been slain by me and others also I shall slay. I am the Lord; I enjoy; I am perfect, powerful and happy”.

Interpretation

After talking about materialistic things and the wealth that a person has gained, Lord Krishna in this shloka talks about a few more things that a person in demonic nature does. If a demonic person defeats or kills an enemy, he says I did it to him, now I will do it to everyone who opposes me. A sense of pride gets into him. With that proud feeling, he will start calling himself the Lord. He will say that my job is only to enjoy because I have defeated all my enemies. He also will start seeing himself to be perfect, powerful and both these qualities will make him happy, says Lord Krishna.

Extending Interpretation to Mankind’s Life!

99 out 100 people who were Kings in the previous time and rulers in the present time, all have these qualities described above. For the sake of power and wealth, Kings used to attack other kingdoms and the winner who wins the war loots the whole wealth of that kingdom and also kills the defeated King. Throughout the World we have seen numerous battles like this for power and position. In fact, Arjuna raised this fundamental question at the beginning of Gita itself to Lord Krishna. Lord Krishna then differentiates this fight which is fought in the name of Dharma to the other fights, where the aim is power. 

If you see the rulers of today, who we call as politicians, many of them are corrupt and we have the least faith in them. If you feel that today’s rulers don’t do criminal acts, then you should know that at the panchayat and Zilla Parishad level more than two thirds of the elected have criminal records and even if we look at the highest body like Lok Sabha, the present Lok Sabha has 36% of its MLAs facing criminal trials. Times change but people don’t. A person with demonic nature always have a feeling to finish his enemies and enjoy their power and wealth and that only gives him happiness.