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117 Seats, 13 States and 2 Union Territories in the Phase 3 #LokSabha2019 #Elections

Today was the 3rd phase of Lok Sabha Elections 2019 which had 117 seats going for polling. The voter turnout for the last two phases was an average of 69.47% and today’s third phase has shown 66.38% updated as of 11:30 PM. With this, the average voter turnout after three phases stands at 68.43%. This means the present voter turnout is higher than that of the 2014 voter turnout of 66%.

After 3 phases the total number of seats that have gone for polling are 303/543 seats. We now have just 240 seats with 4 phases to go which means with this phase the winner could be already decided. But then we all have to wait till 19th may for the exit polls and 23rd may for the results day to know who will be the winner. One thing is pretty sure that this is the most anticipated elections not just for India but also for the World and there are innumerable events happening in the parts of the country. Violence in West Bengal, Poor voter turnout in Kashmir, High voter turnout in Wayanad and many more.

Important Candidates from Third Phase.

Let’s look at the top 10 seats for this phase:

1. Wayanad – Kerala – Rahul Gandhi is without any doubt winning this seat, as per the data from Election Commission the voter turnout was 74.83% and Rahul is expected to win with a high majority.

2. Thrissur – This is not going to be an easy contest, though this will be a triangular contest between BJP vs INC vs CPI, the real contest is between BJP and INC. Tough one to tell but quite seems like it’s BJP who would win it.

3. Thiruvananthapuram – Kerala – Shashi Tharoor is the name known for his English is the major Congress leader, more than Congress Tharoor has to win it for himself, but then the things have changed a lot for him and are more likely to lose the elections this time. This would mean the victory could be for the K Rajashekaran from BJP.

4. Shimoga – Karnataka – Moving into the land of Karnataka, Shimoga is a crucial seat in Karnataka for any party. Expected that BJP would win this even after the alliance between the JDS and INC.

5. Baramati – Maharashtra – The NCP’s safe seat. Baramati is the seat which is always with the NCP and the sitting MP Supriya Sule is again contesting and is expected to win hands down here.

6. Gandhinagar – Gujarat – Marking the entry of Amit Shah is the constituency of LK Advani. Amit Shah will be hoping that he will retain the seat and also bring in a number of voters on his side. So, this will mark the Amit Shah’s entry into the Lok Sabha.

7. Puri – Odisha – The stronghold of BJD. But then here also there have been a lot of groundwork done by the BJP’s members and are expecting to make inroads into the Odisha. Dr Sambit Patra the spokesperson of BJP is standing this time for BJP and will want to win this battle.

8. Rampur – Uttar Pradesh – the state which gave BJP the most number of seats and BJP knows that there are losses coming from UP. But in Rampur, the controversy by Azam Khan has resulted in sympathy for Jayaprada and this could be her victory.

9. Pilibhit – UP – Varun Gandhi, the young BJP leader who has a lot of positive feeling will be going against the Hemraj Verma and is expected to win the battle outright which is what the voter turnout increase also tells us.

10. Mainpuri – UP – this is the seat where Mulayam Singh who wanted Modi to come to power is contesting. Mulayam Singh from SP+BSP alliance might see Modi winning the national elections but at Mainpuri it might be Mulayam all the way and a defeat for BJP.

Let’s look at the state-wise seats and the probable winning numbers:

1. Assam – 4 seats of Assam are going for polls and a higher voter turnout than 2014 means BJP which won all the 4 seats in 2014 might also repeat this time too.

2. Bihar – This phase saw 5 seats of Northern Bihar going for polls and BJP in 2014 holds 4 of them. This time too the same might be repeated.

3. Goa – The two seats of Goa went to polls today amongst a low voter turnout. With Manohar Parrikar Goans seem to have lost interest. BJP which swept both seats in Goa last time might have to share one with Congress this time

4. Gujarat – Voting in Gujarat was similar to what it was last time but repeating 26/26 again is going to be a tough ask. BJP might concede 2-4 seats to Congress this time.

5. Jammu Kashmir – Very low voter turnout will mean even the sitting MP Mehbooba Mufti might not win.

6. Karnataka – The remaining 14 seats of North Karnataka went for polls and the polls were heavy as the previous phase in South Karnataka. BJP holds 11 out of 14 and with an alliance of Cong-JDS playing out big in Hyderabad Karnataka BJP might end up winning 9-10 seats.

7. Kerala – 20 seats – Congress is doing much better here and expected to win good numbers at 14 seats, BJP will only make its presence by winning 2 and CPI will see bad fall to just 4 seats.

8. Maharashtra –The 14 seats, mainly from Western Maharashtra, the sugar belt and stronghold of Sharad Pawar going to polls. Last time BJP won 11 out of 14 but a lesser turnout this time means the enthusiastic BJP voter has not come out and voted in full force. This might cost BJP a couple of seats and they might win 9 seats giving 5 to Cong-NCP alliance.

9. Odisha – 6 seats went to polls and Odisha saw a very low voter turnout which might harm the ruling BJD and BJP might grab 3-4 seats here.

10. Tripura – 1 seat – BJP’s victory

11. Uttar Pradesh – 10 seats – Crucial State and BJP held 7 out of 10 last time but this time it looks like BJP will fall to 6 and lose 4 to SP+BSP

12. West Bengal – 5 seats – the goons state is not letting the polls conducted peacefully, this could be a negative for ruling party and BJP is expected to win 2 and TMC will take the other 3

13. Chattisgarh – 7 seats – Recent assembly elections have shown us how much BJP has lost and they are expected to fall to 4 seats with INC winning 3 seats

14. Dadra Nagar Haveli – 1 – BJP winner

15. Daman Diu – 1 – BJP winner

In 2014 NDA had 67 out of 117 seats and going BJP might retain the same number and might add 2-3 seats more to its kitty and might touch the 70 figure. Congress is also benefitting and might add close to 10 seats to the 18 they won last time. Others are the big losers who might drop to less than 15 seats from 25 plus they had last time

2nd phase of Lok Sabha Elections 2019 #IndiaVotes #LokSabha2019

1st phase of Lok Sabha elections 2019 got successfully completed on 11th of April with the voter turnout reading at 69.4%. This 69.4% is notch higher than the overall 2014 elections turnout of 66.40%. We are 2 days away from the 2nd phase and the last 5 days after the 1st phase got over, things have gone wild for both the parties. Election Commission banned Modi biopic right before 1st phase and now EC has banned several leaders from campaigning for their communal or unethical usage of words. Yogi Adityanath for 72 hours, Mayawati for 48 hours, Azam Khan for 72 hours and Maneka Gandhi for 48 hours. These are some big events in the last 5 days.

18th is the day of Second Phase and this time there are 96 seats which will go for polling on Thursday. Vellore seat polling has been cancelled after huge amounts of cash were seized in the house of a DMK leader. Like last Tuesday, First, let’s look at the top 10 constituencies of the Phase 2 elections.

1. Thoothukudi: Tamil Nadu is all about DMK and AIADMK. With sympathy running high it’s expected that DMK will win or rather sweep entire Tamil Nadu. But last few days things are getting better for AIADMK-BJP combine. Tuthukudi is the place where state BJP president Dr Tamilisai Soundarrajan is taking on Kanimozhi, the favourite daughter of Late Karunanidhi. With sympathy factor intact, things look a bit tough for Tamilisai.

2. Chennai Central: Sam Paul is contesting from PMK which is another ally of BJP. But then this is not going to make any difference as it seems, Dayanidhi Maran from DMK, two time MP and brother of Kalanidhi Maran is expected to win this seat back.

3. Nilgiris: We have the 2G scam acquitted A Raja from DMK fighting against Thyagarajan from AIADMK. This seat is more important for the people and it’s for them to decide either to vote a corrupt leader or someone else.

4. Siva Ganga: Another blockbuster place. After Chidambaram, we have seen that his son Karthi being pushed into politics. Yet another dynasty mode of politics starting in Tamil Nadu. Will Karthi win his father’s seat or are the corruption charges on the family will prove costly for them? This time BJP candidate H Raja is taking Karthi Chidambaram at Shiva Ganga.

5. Bangalore North: This is the seat of former CM and Union minister DV Sadananda Gowda. This looks more or less like a victory for BJP until or unless any miracles save Congress;

6. Mandya: Interesting story coming from this constituency. Nikhil Kumaraswamy the son of HD Kumara Swamy and the Grandson to Deva Gowda is fighting against the actor Ambareesh wife Sumalatha. Sumalatha is going Independent but is being supported by BJP. The Story is, though JDS and Congress are fighting together, there is a section of Congress leaders from Mandya who are secretly supporting Sumalatha. So, will Sumalatha stage an upset and win Mandya or will Nikhil trump her to retain this traditional JDS seat?

7. Chikballapur: This could be one of the easiest win for INC in South India. Bacchegowda is contesting from BJP but then his opponent is Veerappa Moily from Congress. Veerappa Moily has been a Minister of Petroleum, Corporate affairs, Power in UPA and has been a powerful leader from this region. With JDS also supporting him, the caste equations indicate a clear victory for Moiley.

8. Mathura: Going back to North India. We have Hema Malini contesting from BJP and Mahesh Pathak from Congress. Hema Malini as we know is the famous actress and for the first time, Dharmender campaigned for the Party and his Wife. Hema Malini has already won LS Seat before and will be looking to continue the same this elections.

9. Fatehpur Sikri: This is going to be the close contest between two leaders from BJP and INC. BJP has fielded Sadvi Niranjan Jyothi who is known for her controversial remarks on the opposition. On the other side we have Raj Babbar the actor from Congress. Close contest.

10. Srinagar: This is a going to be an easy win for NC Congress. Farooq Abdullah is the famous J&K leader and no doubt he would win this Seat and we will all see 80 plus Abdulla triumph again from Srinagar.

Coming now a little bit to the statistics, the second phase elections will cover 12 states and the union territory of Pondicherry. Tamil Nadu is the only state where all constituencies are going for polls while in other 11 states it going to be just another phase of the election.

There are totally 1590 candidates in the fray and let’s look at the 2014 results.

List of winners for this 96 in last elections: 
• Tamil Nadu (38) NDA 2 UPA 0 Others 36
• Pondicherry (1) NDA 1 UPA 0 Others 0
• Karnataka (14) NDA 6 UPA 8 Others 0
• Orissa (5) NDA 0 UPA 0 Others 5
• Chattisgarh (3) NDA 3 UPA 0 Others 0
• Maharashtra (10) NDA 8 UPA 2 Others 0
• North East (7) NDA 4 UPA 2 Others 1
• West Bengal (3) NDA 1 UPA 0 Others 2
• Bihar (5) NDA 1 UPA 4 Others 0
• Uttar Pradesh (8) NDA 8 UPA 0 Others 0
• Jammu Kashmir (2) NDA 1 UPA 0 Others 1

So out of the total seats 96,
• NDA won 38
• UPA won 12
• Others won 46

Before ending the post today thought the number of seats that BJP holds look smaller in size one needs to go little deep. Of the 38 seats by NDA, only 27 are held by BJP which means 11 are coming from allies. So diving into the data, we must understand that in the last elections BJP went with only 1 ally (PMK) in Tamil Nadu and won 2 seats. One each shared. This way if we see, BJP has got an alliance with AIADMK now and this is going to be crucial. The mood of Tamil Nadu is quickly changing and the possibility of winning 8-10 seats is very much there for NDA.

The same way BJP is making inroads in Bihar, Bengal and Odisha where BJP tally will improve from 2014. If the results from these three states come good and in the other states if NDA holds on then we can see that NDA may win in the range of 40-45 seats. Not much time left, let’s wait and watch how the 2day of polling goes.

Election drama from the ‘K’ States in South India. Kerala and Karnataka. #LokSabha2019

South Indian dishes are so different from North India just like the politics of South India and North India. Like North India, South India doesn’t actually vote for the National Parties but they chose regional parties over the National parties. It’s the same when it comes to Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. But then there are two states Kerala and Karnataka which are in line with the North Indian states.

Both Kerala and Karnataka have had the history of voting National Parties to power which is why we don’t get to see major regional parties in these two states. Kerala for its own reasons revolves between Congress and CPM. Karnataka votes between Congress and BJP. The late 20th-century entrant into Karnataka was Deva Gowda’s JDS.

Karnataka had been a special place for Congress till 1991 where they had won almost 80%-100% seats from 1951 to 1991. Of the total 28 seats in Karnataka, Congress was winning 25-28 seats till 1991. Things changed then and the major shift happened in 1996 when JDS led by Deva Gowda won 16 seats and became the Prime Minister. Then the second shift happened in 2004 where Karnataka started to vote for BJP and BJP was winning anywhere between 17-19 seats.

Karnataka is divided into four regions. Below are the regions and the seat numbers part of those regions.

  • Mumbai Karnataka which has seats like Belgaum, Hubli etc
  • Coastal Karnataka which has seats like Mangalore, Udupi etc
  • Hyderabad Karnataka which has news like Gulbarga, Bellary, Raichur etc
  • Old Mysore which is the largest with 13 seats that include Bangalore, Mysore, Tumkur etc

Of the 28 seats and in the four regions, BJP will win in Mumbai Karnataka and Coastal Karnataka as these are traditional BJP seats and they are with BJP for last 15 years. These two regions are strongholds of BJP, Hyderabad Karnataka and Old Mysore are the JDS+Congress strongholds. With JDS and Congress coming together the vote share will surely increase for the coalition which will pose a challenge to BJP. This time there could be a vertical split with 28 seats going 14-14 to BJP and Cong-JDS combine. This is only because of Cong-JDS alliance else, BJP would have again crossed 18 seat mark.

Kerala the fortress for Communist Party of India (Marxist), but only alternatively.

Kerala has been the place for CPM and Congress for a long time. Kerala is divided into two regions, North Kerala and South Kerala. Kerala has got 20 seats and the polling for all the 20 seats will be on April 23rd. In the 2014 elections, UDF led by Congress won 12 seats and LDF led by CPM won 8 seats. That’s the competition between the Congress and Communist party in Kerala.

There are some surprises which could come up in this elections in Kerala and that could be a win for BJP for the first time. BJP is hoping to win two seats. One is the Thiruvananthapuram seat which they lost by a small margin and second is Thrissur which has sizable Hindu population and from where famous actor Suresh Gopi is contesting from BJP ticket. One seat where BJP can give some competition to CPM is the Kasargode seat where religious polarization due to the killing of RSS workers might make the Hindus to shift votes to BJP.

But the tide is expected to be in the way of Congress this time with 14-15 seats coming their way. Wayanad is the seat that has caught all the attention after Rahul Gandhi has nominated himself from there, this decision of Rahul is being highly trolled by BJP. But then ultimately, Wayanad is a strong seat for Congress and with Rahul contesting it’s going to an easy job for INC and Rahul Gandhi to become part of 17th Lok Sabha. CPM is losing badly this time with just 3 seats coming their way and BJP could be the surprise with 2 wins and 1 very tough race.

So, of the 48 seats from Karnataka and Kerala, Congress is expected to win 28-30 seats, 14 each from Karnataka and Kerala. BJP is only expected to win 15-17 seats. The other 3 seats are going to CPM. This means that the ‘K’ states are giving huge wins for UPA led by Congress.

Time for the Lok Sabha Elections 2019! #IndiaVotes #LokSabha2019

The 17th Lok Sabha Elections will be underway in less than 48 hours and the campaigning has come to an end today at 5PM. The polls for 1st phase will be on Thursday 11th April for 91 Lok Sabha seats covering 20 states. Of the 20 states going for polls, 10 states are going for polls completely. This means on the very first day of elections the campaigning of elections for 10 states will be over.

The 10 most important seats that go to polls on 11th April and the details of the contestants and little trivia about them.

1. Arunachal East: North East has turned out to be BJP’s new fortress after 2014. BJP was able to either stitch right coalitions or with their ground level, hard work was able to build faith in the people of North East in the last 5 years. That was seen in the various Assembly election of North Eastern States. Well, coming to the Arunachal East seat, Kiran Rijiju is fighting for BJP and James Lowancha for Congress. Rijiju is a powerful leader who is the present union minister of state for Home affairs and had played an important role in Balakot Air Strikes.

2. Srikakulam: Andhra Pradesh is no clear slate for any party. There are voices giving wins for either party but nothing seems to be clear. Ram Mohan Naidu contesting for TDP is the son of famous Yerran Naidu. Ram Mohan is the sitting MP and TDP will hope to retain this seat. D Srinivas from YSRCP and P Samba Murthy from BJP are other contestants.

3. Vizianagaram: Another important seat from Andhra Pradesh. Basically because of the competition in this area. Ashok Gajapathi Raju is contesting for TDP who has worked as Civil Aviation Minister for NDA when TDP was with BJP. Though a minister, he seems to be losing this seat as the YSRCP wave is building strongly. B Chandra Shekar is YSRCP candidate and P Sanyasi Raju is BJP candidate.

4. Visakhapatnam: A 3rd important seat from Andhra Pradesh. Very important for BJP. This is the only seat which the BJP is expecting to win in AP. D Purandeshwari, daughter of NTR is contesting for BJP. MVV Satyanarayana is YSRCP candidate and MV Sribharat is TDP candidate. Purandeshwari last contested from Rajampet and lost by 1.8 lakh votes. Vizag being an urban seat, BJP expecting a win here.

5. Jamui: Bihar now, Chirag Paswan son of Ram Vilas Paswan is contesting for NDA (BJP). Bhudev Choudhury is from RLSP. The story is that Ram Vilas Paswan is a veteran leader who has been a minister in the Indian government since 1989. He gets the mood of the people well before everyone and always sides the winning team. This time again he chose NDA by asking his Son to contest. Victory very probable.

6. Nagpur: One from Maharashtra, the top leader of BJP, Nitin Gadkari will be contesting from Nagpur. Very famous leader and has got the power to win the battle easily. Very well accepted in his constituency and is known for his work as Road Minister and Ganga Cleaning project. Sure win for BJP

this one. Contesting against is Nana Patole from Congress.

7. Nizamabad: Moving to Telangana, K Kavitha is the candidate from TRS and from the opposition is Madhu Yashki Goud from Congress. Though we have the leader from BJP, D Aravind, the battle is between the two big leaders of INC and TRS. Though it seems most likely that the people will choose Kavitha as their winner, INC will look to give tough competition.

8. Secunderabad: 2nd one from Telangana, BJP has fielded in the next-gen leader G. Kishan Reddy and Congress has got Anjan Kumar Yadav and TRS has their young leader Sai Kiran Yadav. This is the seat of reckoning for BJP, this is the only seat which has the most possible chance of Victory in Telangana. But the things aren’t looking right for BJP and Kishan Reddy who has been hoping for a Victory might have to wait for more time.

9. Hyderabad: 3rd one from Hyderabad. No question raised and no doubts raised, this will be yet another victory for the chief of AIMIM Asaddudin Owaisi. Feroz Khan is contesting for Congress who jumped from TDP. But the things won’t change and Asaddudin will win Hyderabad for 5th Time.

10. Muzaffarnagar: This is a very interesting battle from Uttar Pradesh. Ajit Singh is contesting from RLD and Sanjeev Kumar Balyan is fighting for BJP. In the last elections in 2014, BJP won this seat with as many as 3.5 lakh votes. This was when the parties were scattered and BJP cruised through on arithmetically. This time as per voter share BJP will be losing the battle as BJP is going alone against the powerful Jat-Yadav-Muslim-Dalit combine of RLD-SP-BSP. Very unpredictable seat.

Facts: 2014 Elections Results of Phase 1 that has 91 seats

  • NDA won 38
  • UPA won 7
  • TDP won 18
  • TRS won 11
  • YSRCP of Jagan won 9
  • Biju Janata Dal in Odisha won 4
  • AITC of Mamta Banerjee won 2
  • AIMIM won 1
  • PDP won 1
  • Number of Constituencies 91
  • No. of candidates 1285
  • Number of polling centres 1,69,400

Let’s wait and watch how the polling goes and who wins what!

Market Trade Setup 9th April #Nifty

BJP manifesto took the market down, down to 11550 zones and later recovered to cross 11600 mark and close above that. I was talking about Nifty going to 11580 levels yesterday if the manifesto is not liked by the market and it has happened. If a 11800 close yesterday would have catapult Nifty to 13000 by June, it has now taken away that possibility and we could now see a nervous move ahead and it might want another good news coming from anywhere before it starts to resume the journey again. Globally things were not so great and Dow closed 90 points lower on the forecast that Q1 results for the US are not likely to be in the expected range. Asia is flat to negative with both Japan and Hong Kong down 50 points each and only Singapore and Taiwan are in a mild positive zone.

Coming to domestics yesterday was a clash between BJP manifesto vs Congress’ NYAY. Where Congress focused on the bottom 5% of poor with 72,000 per annum cash transfer, BJP focused on populist schemes aimed at farmers. A slew of measures like a loan at zero interest, farm pensions and cash transfers are going to put pressure on the fiscal health and was not liked by the market that much. Added to this is the pressure coming from Brent crude with crossed 71 dollars now and trading at 71.1 dollars. Rupee also lost 45 paise yesterday and now has reached 69.67 per dollar and all the good work was done to bring it to 68.3 lost out in just 2-3 sessions. Nifty has 20 dma at 11470 mark and that is going to be strong support even if there is some fall happening today. So, we need to look at 20 dma carefully.

On the derivatives front, there was a different reaction in the futures and options market. While there was selling in the day but buying resumed by afternoon in the futures market, the options market has shown one-way traffic and that is the demand for the calls. That has brought down the Nifty put-call ratio from 1.61 to 1.50 and there was the closing of positions seen on many strikes on the put side. 11600 put has the highest open interest at 12.6 lakh while 11500 put also has 12.2 lakh open interest. This is very close so if 11560 doesn’t hold today then we can see Nifty going to 20 dma of 11470 mark. On the call side, 11700 call added 10.7 lakh positions yesterday and it has the highest open interest now at 21.6 lakh. so 11720 is a strong resistance for this week’s expiry. So, unless there is fundamental news, till Thursday expect Nifty to be in 11560-11720 range with a danger of Nifty slipping to 11470 on ant bad news.

What is the Nifty call for the day?
A flat Asia means we will also open in the flat zone between 11600-11620 mark and 11560 continues to be very strong support. Good news might take Nifty to 11680-11710 zones and if that happens, exit positions and book mild profits. Your positions are stuck for almost 3 days now and you need an exit route and let’s hope that this exit route comes today. If things turn to worse and Nifty corrects to 11500 mark, patiently, as things are looking more likely on the upside than on downside in the next 1-2 weeks. No fresh positions to be taken today. 

Will BJP Win Uttar Pradesh in Lok Sabha? Battle in Western UP #LOKSABHA2019

Right then, I am today going to look at the highest populated state in the Country which is also the State with highest no of seats. Uttar Pradesh has got 80 Lok Sabha seats which are 14.6% of overall seats in India. Being the largest state it’s not easy or rather not right to restrict it to one post, that’s why Uttar Pradesh will be discussed in two posts dividing it into Western Uttar Pradesh and Eastern Uttar Pradesh.

Both Western and Eastern Uttar Pradesh has got 40 seats each. Places like Mathura, Agra, Noida, Dadri, Muzaffarnagar come under the Western UP and places like Lucknow, Kanpur, Varanasi and Prayagraj come under Eastern UP. Looking at it from district wise, there are 75 districts and 80 seats which means for every district UP has got minimum 1 seat.

In today’s post, we would look at the Western Part of UP which is influenced by North Indian Culture. For info, Eastern part of UP is influenced by Bihari related factors.

Politically, entire UP is divided into 5 regions and they are:
  • 1. Braj
  • 2. Bundelkhand
  • 3. Avadh
  • 4. Purvanchal
  • 5. Bagelkhand
Parliament Seats in Uttar Pradesh 2019

These are the 5 regions of UP. Western Part of UP covers Braj which is the biggest one of all the 5 which is called also Vrindavan. Today, we are going to look at all the seats of Braj and part of Bundelkhand.

Historically, UP has been voting for the Congress till 1977 since Independence. In 1977 UP voted Janata party to power which stayed till 1980. Things changed again when Congress was voted back to power from 1980 and continued till 1989, in the year 1985 – Congress won 84 out of 85 available seats (Uttarakhand 5 seats). Till then Congress was winning with a good majority, but things got changed with the issue of Ram Jhanma Bhoomi coming up. This meant that the voters were divided on the basis of religion and caste. This helped BJP win the elections and as UP got divided in the name of caste and religion. Let’s look at the 5 major parties in Uttar Pradesh.

  • 1. BJP – Bharatiya Janata party (Brahmins, Kshetriyas, Vysyas, OBCs)
  • 2. INC – Indian National Congress (OBCs and Muslims)
  • 3. SP – Samajwadi party (Muslims and Yadavs)
  • 4. BSP – Bahujan Samajwadi party (Dalits)5. RLD – Rashtriya Lok Dal (Jats)
How are the Elections 2019 going to be?

When we look at the party-wise support, BJP is the party for Hindus, Congress is the party for Muslims, BSP is the party for SC, SP is the party for Muslims and Yadav. Here, each party is recognised with one religion or one community based on their maximum vote share in the past.

Looking at the demographics of Uttar Pradesh community wise.

  • a. OBCs – 40%
  • b. Dalits – 21%
  • c. Forward Caste – 23%
  • d. Muslims – 19%

Some more points: OBC is divided between BJP, SP and Congress. Dalits completely back BSP and 19% Muslims will majorly back SP. So just going by the arithmetic, if both SP and BSP come together then the voter share of both the parties will easily get to 40%. This is a danger that ruling BJP is aware of and are trying everything possible to make some inroads. Last time in 2014, BJP won 73 seats out of 80 seats which were possible only because the contest was quadrangular. Thus it’s visible how important it is for a party to grab the vote shares of other communities in the state which has got Caste based voters.

Those leaders who matter the most this Lok Sabha Elections!

Going little more deeper in the data, there are 13 seats of the 40 Western UP seats where the Muslims vote share is more than the average of 19% and there are 10 seats which have a Dalit population which is more than average of 21%. Just think if these seats go completely in favour of SP+BSP+RLD alliance then they would take easily 23 seats. So, I would predict SP+BSP+RLD to win seats in the range of 20-25 and BJP to win the remaining 15-20 seats. Next week Tuesday, I will come up with the Eastern UP Seats and the updates on the issues that affect the voter in UP.

Market Trade Setup 28th March #Nifty

The expiry day for the third series of the year is finally here. Unlike the last two series which saw close calls for bulls and bears, this series has been completely in the grip of bulls having gained 653 points so far which is the highest in the last 8 months. Today’s expiry has a lot of global and local cues to worry about and the primary of them is the yield inversion where the 10 year US bond fell to 2.35% which is the lowest since 2017 and now the talk of slow down and recession is growing louder. The result was the US closed in mild red losing more than 30 points and Asian markets are also in red with Japan losing more than 300 points and other markets also in mild red.

On the domestic front, yesterday was an action-packed day with PM Modi putting up a tweet that he is going to make an important announcement at 12 noon and the whole nation waited with bated breath. Finally, the announcement was about India being the 4th country in the World to test the Anti Satellite missile at lower orbits of as low as 300kms. This could protect us from any spying that enemy nations can do on our data and communications and also we can shoot any satellite spying on us. This is indeed a great achievement but what it ended up opposition complaining to EC about the violation of poll conduct. EC has taken it up for probing. So, politics dominating the space today than economics.
Coming to derivatives, today is the expiry day and we had January series going to bulls with 60 points and February going to bears with 40 points and till last day we were not able to predict the winner. But this series is firmly in bulls grip with 653 points and yesterday we have seen a record turnover for the penultimate day of expiry. The turnover was at 17.2 lakh crore and now we have to see whether we will hit the 20 lakh crore turnover or not. The Nifty put-call ratio fell to 1.49 from 1.64 as there was a lot of put unwinding. 11200 puts saw 6.1 lakh unwinding, while 11300 put saw 4.7 lakh, 11000 put 4.1 lakh and 11400 put 3.5 lakh. The highest unwinding on put side happened at 11500 put which saw 7.4 lakh positions disappearing.
All this have left the put side or support side very confused and 11000 put has maximum open interest followed by 11400 put. So, we can conclude that 11400 is a support that will hold for today. On the call side, 11600 call added 11.2 lakh positions followed by 11450 call that added 6.5 lakh positions and 11550 call added 5.4 lakh positions. 11600 call has the highest open interest followed by 11500. So, 11600 should be achievable if Nifty doesn’t correct today. If we take a hint from 4th April weekly expiry 11500 call has the highest open interest and very close to it is 11600 call. So, options present a very confused picture now.
What is the Nifty call for the day?

We will have a flat opening around 11450-11470 zone and then the first resistance will come at 11520 levels and if Nifty is able to take it effortlessly then we can go all the way upto 11580-11600 mark intraday. On the downside 11410 is strong support. So, my feeling is today if the open remains positive and Nifty doesn’t fall much then we can go for a long position in April series. Am saying April only for safety reasons. But one thing we need to remember is, last two months expiry did present some volatility and today also you might see it and don’t be surprised if Nifty goes to 11580 if it manages to cross 11520 in the first one hour. The target for your long position taken below 11500 mark should be 11550-11580 mark, any time in the next 3-4 session starting from today.

Previewing State of West Bengal Before Elections #LokSabha2019

Build up to Lok Sabha Elections 2019 continues……

Hello Guys, today we are moving towards the east of India and I will be talking about the cultural capital of India West Bengal in today’s post.

West Bengal is the Largest state in eastern part of India, otherwise eastern India has got many small states. West Bengal is the third largest in terms of Seats which is 42 seats. Bengal is known for the sporting culture, literature and the devotion for Lord Durga.

It is also known for one unwanted thing and that’s the Violence. West Bengal is said to be the most violence prone states. Violence here has been a perpetual thing which has got state-sponsored violence. This violence is the bigger reason for the elections in Bengal happening in multiple phases. This time there are 7 phases for West Bengal Elections and in the last elections in the year 2014, it was in 5 phases.

Fact Check: West Bengal has got total living population of 9.1 cr out of which 6.55 crore are registered voters. Being the cultural capital the people of West Bengal has also got the tag of one of the highest voter turnout state in the country. In 2014 the voter turnout was as high as 82% which is expected to increase this time.

Historically when we look at West Bengal politics, like any other state Congress rules the state for 20 years from 1951 to 1971. It was all Congress domination but things changed and from 1971-2004 it was the Communist Party which dominated the state. This rule of communist has played a huge role in West Bengal and few people regret voting CPI to power. The gigantic run of CPI ended as the mood of the people changed completely after no of years of rule. It was all TMC from then leady by Mamata Banerjee. TMC is ruling since 2009 and TMC always look comfortable in West Bengal.

It was way back in 1998 that BJP won its first seat and that came from Darjeeling.

BJP from the last twenty years has won around 1-2 seats every election. But this time BJP is doing everything to increase their tally from 2 to 10. Not to forget people here don’t change instantly and they are all fixed to that particular party. That will also mean that the people are voting for the same party, which means there is no way a change in the behaviour of the voters. The advantage though is that the batting second also loses the match.

Let’s look at the Regions: 
1. Darjeeling 
2. Malda region weak BJP 
3. Hugli region strong TMC (30 seats) 
4. Asansol region BJP picking up

Out of the available 42 seats, they 8-10 Expected to come from 
1. Darjeeling 2 
2. Malda nothing 
3. Hugli expecting from Kolkata 4-5 seats 
4. Asansol 2-3 seats

With Bengal, we have so far covered 130 seats randomly in the states of Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal. Where Shiv Sena and BJP are likely to sweep Maharashtra, DMK and Congress are likely to sweep in Tamilnadu to make it 1-1 for NDA and UPA Bengal is going third front way to TMC where it is likely to end up with more than 30 seats. So three states go to three different fronts and race for 2019 looks very exciting.

All about the Mood of Maharashtra in this Maha Elections #LokSabha #Elections2019

India’s biggest State in terms of GDP and the state that every Indian dream to visit and fulfil their dreams ‘Maharashtra’ will go for elections in the month of April. People of Maharashtra will vote in the four phases from 11th April to 29th April.

There are 288 seats in Maharashtra Assembly where a party will need 145 seats for a majority. Coming to Lok Sabha, Maharashtra has 48 seats. Maharashtra is the second largest state in terms of Lok Sabha after Uttar Pradesh which has got 80 seats. The third is West Bengal with 42 seats and fourth is Bihar with 40 seats.

First, let’s look at the 4 regions:
Maharashtra Assembly Constituencies Map

1. Konkan & Goa Region – Coastal region on Maharashtra

2. Madhya Maharashtra – Entire belt after Pune

3. Marathwada- North and South of Maharashtra adjacent to Madhya Maharashtra

4. Vidarbha – Eastern Maharashtra bordering to Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. Nagpur is the capital of this region and comparable the backward regions of all.

Let’s look at the dates and seats phase-phase:

• April 11th – Vidarbha 7 seats

• April 18th – Most of Marathwada 10 seats

• April 23rd – Konkan & Goa 14 seats

• April 29th – Northern part of Marathwada 17 seats

Not to forget the big city in the country, Mumbai will be going for polls in the 4th phase and it has got 8 seats.

1. Kalyan (Outskirts)

2. Thane (Outskirts)

3. Mumbai North

4. Mumbai Northwest

5. Mumbai Northeast

6. Mumbai North Central

7. Mumbai South Central

8. Mumbai South

Source: Latestly

Fact check:

There are totally 8.73 crore registered voters of which there are 21 lakh first-time voters. Off 94,473 polling areas, 55,814 are rural areas and 39659 are urban polling booths.

The Big Fight: 2019 Lok Sabha polls

Maharashtra has 4 big parties, Shivsena, BJP, Congress and NCP. Shivasena was started by Balasaheb Thackeray in the early 1960s and he is the sole reason for many changes in Maharashtra. NCP was started by Sharad Pawar in 1996 after coming out of Congress. The irony is he is now with the same congress as an ally which he left 25 years ago. Though there are 4 parties it is always 2 cornered fight in the Elections. BJP is aligned with Shiva Sena and Congress is aligned with NCP. Till 2009 Cong-NCP dominated in most of the elections and they held power in the state for 15 years from 1999-2014.

Things though changed in 2014 when Maharashtra went all to BJP+Shiva Sena. BJP+SS won as many as 41 seats out of 48 seats, in which BJP won 23 and Shiva Sena took 18. Rest went for 4 NCP and 2 to Congress and the 1 went to the local party which in some days joined BJP.

That’s the strength BJP has grown to in Maharashtra. Lately, there have been differences in Shiva Sena and BJP. But, at the right moment, BJP and Shiv Sena have come together and announced their alliance. Adding to Congress woes, a lot of people walked out from Congress citing the reasons for unhappiness with the performance of Congress. Shocking is that the Leader of opposition Radha Krishna Vikhe Patil who was projected to be as CM if INC won in 2014 also joined BJP. First, it was his son over the disappointment of not getting Ahmed Nagar seat which was given to NCP. Next morning even the father left the party to join BJP. This proves that the alignment is not good and the condition of Congress with NCP is really bad.

This is how the story is getting unfolded in Maharashtra. Finally, an opinion poll by India Today and Karvy says that the BJP and Shiva Sena coalition will win 42 seats which are one seat more than last time. This will mean that the ruling BJP and Shiv Sena will sweep Maharashtra. Let’s wait and watch for the polls and then the counting on May 23rd!