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Indian General Elections Predictions 2019 – Mid Year Predictions – #LokSabha2019

BJP will not win a majority, but nobody else other than BJP can form a Govt in 2019!

Hello Everyone. Tuesday is here and I am back with my final post on 2019 Elections Predictions. I have in my last 4 posts on elections predicted the seats that the parties are going to win in the coming 2019 elections. We have seen that it is BJP which is ahead but not enough to win the elections on their own capacity. Apart from this there are few more very important points to be considered which are crucial. Standing on today as per the present situations my predictions are given below:

NDA = 289, UPA = 104, Third Front = 90 and Fourth Front = 60!

NDA
  1. BJP                         240
  2. JDU(Bihar) 19
  3. Shiv Sena             16
  4. Others                  14
UPA
  1. INC                        78
  2. DMK                     5
  3. RJD                       8
  4. NCP                      4
  5. Others                 9
Third Front
  1. TDP                       8
  2. Kamal Haasan    6
  3. CPI/CPM              8
  4. TMC                      30
  5. SP+BSP                 32
  6. Others                 6
Fourth Front
  1. TRS                       10
  2. YSRCP                   13
  3. Rajinikanth         19
  4. BJD                       16
  5. Others                 2

So, it is wrong to assume that all the Non-NDA and Non-UPA parties are in the third front. You also should understand that there is a Fourth Front which is opposite to the third front and cannot align with the third front. So, if UPA aligns with third front, it won’t get the support of fourth front. For example, TRS cannot align with congress because it is directly fighting Congress in Telangana. Similarly, TDP cannot align with YSRCP because they are fighting each other in AP. That presents me with 5 takeaways from the predictions I made in last 4 weeks.

  1. BJP is all set(?) with the help of its allies to retain the power in 2019!

BJP is sitting on 240 seats and by adding the seats of its allies the tally goes to 289. Which means there are 49 seats which are coming from its allies. BJP last time had 282 seats and this time they are at 240 seats and that’s fall of 42 seats. The two parties with maximum support to BJP are Shiv Sena and JDU in Bihar. These are the two parties which may change their minds at the eleventh hour. Though it’s not alarming news for BJP its surely a call to do something big to come back to power on its own. Because we never know in politics who jumps the castle.

  1. Third Front is not as strong as we think because we have Fourth Front which got emerged from third front!

Not very long ago there were articles written and posted on the birth of ‘Third Front’ which as per a class of journalists would form the next Government of India. So to put this argument to an end, my predictions give Third Front just 90 seats. That’s not even 1/3rd. If we add congress seats to Third front the tally goes to 194. That is nothing close to majority. The Fourth Front is the actual new born baby because there was a cold war between parties of third front and that lead to unofficial withdrawal. That has brought fourth front into scene which may not support BJP directly but give outside support if needed. So 60 seats are huge number and let’s remember that a coalition made out of 10 parties can never rule country!

  1. BJP is losing seats in Northern India and Western India but it is picking up seats in Southern and Eastern India.

BJP overall has 240 seats which looks to be a good number, but when you look into the statistics you will know that BJP is losing in the strong holds like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Maharashtra. Each state there is fall of average 30% fall in the seats won compared to 2014. But the good news being the BJP’s has strengthened in Eastern India and Southern India. Though there is gain in south and east the gain is not good enough to beat the fall in west and north India.

  1. This is perfect battle because the BJP’s Loss is INC’s gain!

If we see BJP is losing 42 seats from its 2014 tally of 282 and INC is winning 34 seats more than what it won in 2014. It shows how nicely INC is able to hit the areas where BJP is losing. We can even conclude that these numbers were won by BJP in 2014 majorly because of Modi wave. The loss of 40 seats is not big in a General election but it’s the pick that matters. That’s where Congress is doing really well to pick up the seats which BJP is losing.

  1. Will BJP form the Govt or Will the Karnataka Scenario hit the Nation in the month of May 2019?

Yes, BJP has 240 seats and its alliance combined takes it to 289 which is 15 seats more than the Majority mark. But the big worries for BJP are coming from Nitish Kumar of JDU whose 19 seats could cost them the majority.  Shiv Sena which is somehow dissatisfied with BJP and if Shiv sena moves out then NDA seats will fall further to 254. That will also mean UPA+Third Front tally will go to 194+16+19=229.  If leaders like Mamta Banerjee, then somehow manage to get KCR and Naveen Patnaik on board to support from outside then that 229 gets another 26 seats which takes their total to 255.

So now we are at NDA 254 and UPA+ThirdFront+JDU+Shivsena+BJD+TRS at 255. The climax then shifts to Tamilnadu where Thalaiva Rajnikanth is expected to win 19 seats. Whoever gets those 19 will cross that magical figure of 272!!

Knowing Rajnikanth well, it’s not tough to say that he will throw his weight behind Modi than behind Congress or Kamal Hassan.

So, final conclusion is that as per the present situations if elections are conducted, it is clear that BJP will win the 2019 elections in any conditions until or unless there is drastic change in the political scenario! Hope you liked this five-part series of mid-year 2018 predictions!!!

General Elections 2019! Mid Year Predictions – Northern Region #LokSabha2019

Lok Sabha Elections 2019 Predictions – Northern Region 

So I am back with the Elections Predictions on this Tuesday. The journey of predicting for the General Elections 2019 which started on 29th May is going to complete the region wise picture today and next week will be the All India picture. When we last visited election predictions and stopped with Western India Predictions, NDA was sitting at 214 seats and UPA at 203 seats with 126 seats left. Today you will know who will be the people’s choice in 2019 elections. But just few words before talking about the North Indian states, this predictions thing has seriously helped me in understanding the politics in the country. Someone who had restricted himself to Telangana, now has good knowledge on almost all the states.

Fine, so coming to the Northern Indian region of India. We have 7 states and Chandigarh here with 126 seats. Out of the 126 seats it’s the Uttar Pradesh which takes 2/3rds with 80 seats and rest 46 divided between other states. Let’s see if UPA is going to do any harm to NDA or will NDA retain the power in 2019!

  1. Uttar Pradesh: The Big State with 80 seats which was the jackpot for BJP in last elections is looking to be a disappointment this time. 2014 saw BJP winning as many as 73 seats and SP+BSP put together winning only 7 seats. This was a huge victory for BJP. This time though BJP will have to taste the bitterness as the predictions show that BJP will fall to 48 and SP+BSP alliance is looking to come back strong and win 32 seats. It is only in Paschim Pradesh or Western UP where BJP is kind of sweeping with 19 out of 28 but not as good as 2014 where it had won 25 seats. Avadh the minority dominated region and a strong hold of SP will be setback as BJP which won 11 last time out of 14 is now dropping to 6. Purvanchal is yet another disappointment for BJP, in the 2014 elections BJP has won 31 out of 32 and this time they are falling to 19 seats. It’s a victory for SP+BSP as they are jumping from 1 seat to 13 seats. And from the last region of 6 seats Bundelkhand BJP is losing 2 seats compared to 6 they won last time. Big point is I am expecting Rahul Gandhi to lose the election to Smriti Irani from Amethi.
  2. Jammu and Kashmir: To the top most state of the Country, in the last elections BJP was in alliance with PDP and it was a great move as they went on to win all the 6 seats. PDP won 3 from Kashmir region which has about 98% Muslim population, BJP won 2 seats in Jammu and 1 seat from Ladakh. We know that the alliance is no more in place and BJP will not and cannot win anything in Kashmir so straight they will fall to 2 as Ladakh is also looking difficult for BJP.
  3. Punjab: The only state where Congress is in power after 2014 elections. Akali Dal and BJP lost the assembly elections badly and Congress came back to the power in 2017. This will really effect the BJP+SAD and their numbers will drop to just 5 out of 13 seats. AAP has lost all its value and will not win anything. INC will gain majorly and will be up from 3 last time to 8 seats now.
  4. Delhi & Chandigarh: The capital has got 7 seats and BJP had clean swept all the 7 seats in the last elections. This time though due to some political problems and anti-incumbency will make way for Congress. Expecting BJP to lose 2 seats and might win 5 seats. From Chandigarh the only seat will go to Kirron Kher from BJP. Congress might win the remaining 2 seats in Delhi.
  5. Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh: Two states which are Pro BJP and I am not seeing any trouble for BJP. Both together there are 9 seats, Uttarakhand 5 and Himachal Pradesh 4. In 2014 BJP won all the 9, expecting BJP to do the same in 2019.
  6. Haryana: Another state which has the feeling of anti-incumbency and it will hurt BJP. Last time BJP has won 7 seats out of 10. This time with the fall of 2 seats BJP will retain 5 seats. It is the Indian National Lok Dal which is going to gain more due to the political issues in the state.

These are the predictions for the Northern Indian region and the race of prediction for the regions has come to an end. My predictions for the Northern India gives BJP 75 seats, INC 12 seats and others at 39 seats. Which takes the tally of BJP or NDA to 289, UPA to 95 and others to 159. With no confirmations on who will join whom and whether the present coalition parties will stay or not these numbers still look dangerous even though NDA might cross the majority mark. BJP+Allies as of now are at 289 without adding any support from South Indian states. In my South India predictions, we have seen Rajinikanth winning good numbers. There is always chance of parties jumping here and there.

Next week will be my concluding post where I will give you state by state figures for all the states and also will tell you how many seats BJP alone can win. Will it be less than 272, then how much less it will be and who are the partners it can bank upon. Wait for the concluding post on 3rd July, you will surely find it interesting!

General Elections 2019! Mid Year Predictions – Western India Region #LokSabha2019

 

Lok Sabha Elections 2019 Predictions – Western Region

Tuesday and its third consecutive post on the elections 2019 predictions. The contest is getting tighter and tighter and the competition for the Crown isn’t too far. By this time next year, we would be under the rule of ‘Newly Formed’ Government ‘BJP led NDA’ or ‘INC led UPA’. This time the contest is more going towards a two-party fight unlike previous elections. Yes, its not sure how many parties are going to join hands with INC in UPA but NDA is going to face tough task this time as reports suggest. Today it’s the Western Region and I have 132 seats under my prediction scanner from 5 states and 2 union territories. 5 states are Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Goa. Union territories include Daman & Diu and Dadra & Haveli.

1. Maharashtra: Let me start off with the most crucial state for the coming election and that is Maharashtra. It has the Highest number of seats at 48 of which BJP+Shiv Sena together won 42 in 2014. It was a sweep for BJP. This time around expecting that BJP will have coalition with SHS the predictions are made. Unlike last time, I feel that BJP+SHS might not do well and will see a fall in the seats. The damage is majorly because of Madhya Maharashtra going Congress way, thanks to an alliance with NCP. This way BJP is going down to 34 seats and Congress-NCP alliance is gaining 8 seats more to go to 14 seats. It can even get worse for BJP if they fail to keep Shiv Sena with them. If BJP fights alone the tally might comedown from 34 to just 15. We will see many events rolling up in the coming days in Maharashtra!

2. Gujarat: Last time on the back of Modi wave Gujarat was clean swept by BJP by winning all the 26 seats. But this time things have changed, when electorate gives 100% seats for a Party then it has got that power to develop and do well. From the assembly elections which happened very recently that was not to be. BJP struggled but finally won it for one more time. That unhappiness in the minds of people might be an advantage for Congress and they will be able to do the damage that’s going to change the things a bit. Saurashtra was the biggest problem for BJP in assembly elections. But this time its not going to be that easy for Congress to sweep Saurashtra. Personally, I feel INC might not capitalize and BJP will lose seats but not a big downfall. BJP will be able to take 21 seats and Congress will win 5 seats.

3. Rajasthan: Another jackpot state for BJP where they have won all the 25 seats in 2014 elections. Rajasthan is a very critical state. Assembly elections are nearing and the tide is not going in favor of BJP. Few People feel that Vasundhara Raje has not delivered enough and few are happy. Which few is majority is what we will see in the assembly elections in November. That will have big impact on the Lok Sabha Elections as well. My feeling says that BJP will lose it badly this time and I see BJP at 16 and Congress at 9. This is a big fall from 25 seats. The regions where BJP will be losing will be Alwar, Ajmer and Mewar regions. These regions have their own problems which BJP has to pay for.

4. Madhya Pradesh: In this three-region state of Madhya Pradesh, last elections saw BJP winning 27 and INC winning only 2. This is another state which will be up for polls this year November. It has been always a strong state for BJP and has got good leaders. That 27 seats winning was a big achievement for BJP which they will not be able to achieve in the coming elections 2019. One of the reason being the farmers unrest. Always BJP has been winning this state since last 3 terms with very good majority. So, it’s going to be really interesting to watch how the results fare. With the news and data, I have got, I feel that BJP will come down big to 18 from 27 and INC will increase to 11 from 2. This is majorly due to the drop in the seats of BJP in Maha Koshal and Malwa regions. They will be able to maintain their 2014 tally in Madhya Bharat region.

Apart from this out of 2 seats in Goa, 1 each will go to INC and BJP. Other two union territories will both go to BJP. That’s how the Western India Elections Predictions looks like.

Till now from the three regions it now looks to be a very tight race as NDA is at 214 seats and UPA and others are at 203 seats. So out of the predicted 417 seats NDA has got 214 seats and UPA plus others gets 203 seats. That 203 seats includes all other independents and other smaller parties. What needs to be seen is how many will leave or stay with UPA or NDA. BJP as per the predictions made needs 60 more seats from the available 126 seats to come from Northern India.
This is really going to the last stage and we will all have that climax after 2 weeks! Next week am taking a break from the predictions and my North Indian Predictions for the remaining 126 seats will happen in two weeks’ time!

Till then, keep waiting…keep counting!

General Elections 2019! Mid Year Predictions – Eastern India Region #LokSabha2019

Lok Sabha Elections 2019 Predictions – Eastern India

Tuesday it is and its Psephology again for 2nd week running. As promised this post will be concentrating on the Eastern India’s predictions for general elections 2019. As part of Eastern India, I have taken West Bengal, Orissa, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar and North East states – Assam, Mizoram, Manipur, Tripura, Meghalaya, Nagaland and Sikkim.

  1. West Bengal: Starting off with the most crucial state of West Bengal. Bengal is a Strong hold for the opposition and is a potential place for third front. West Bengal politics was in news in last few days for the havoc that we have witnessed in the Panchayat Elections. Though the people of West Bengal still believe in Didi – Mamata Banerjee – few sections of people are changing their view and we could see a major fight for seats. There are chances that Sourav Ganguly might get in as well. Not confirmed yet. There are 42 seats in total and this is divided into 3 regions. They are Gorkha land, Hooghly region and the third is the Burdwan region. In the three regions Gorkha Land is the only place where BJP is strong and is supposed to do well. Apart from this it will get one, two seats from other two regions. Problem for BJP is the absence of a strong leader in West Bengal.

 

  1. Orissa: Not much to be spoken about this Biju Patnaik’s State which has vested power in Naveen Patnaik for almost 20 years now. Very much like West Bengal where BJP doesn’t have much to say, BJP is also not a big player here. But in last 2 years or so, BJP is making every effort to take the opposition spot vacated by Congress. Still there are some places like Bargarh, Sundargarh and Bhubaneshwar where BJP can smell the victories. Looks a tough fight for BJP and BJD will easily win this.

 

  1. Chattisgarh: BJP is too strong here to lose and let the opposition parties win the battle. So, my predictions aren’t going to change from what it has achieved in its last elections. 10 of 11 is what BJP will get. In 2014 and in 2009 elections also BJP got 10 out of 11 seats here.

 

  1. Jharkhand: Another easy state for BJP. In the power in this state since the time State was formed. Either as coalition or Single party. No major heart breaks with respect to anti-incumbency will be relief for BJP. Situations Looks like BJP will lose one of its seats to INC.

 

  1. Bihar: Bihar is always unpredictable state because we have leaders like Lalu and Nitesh Kumar who are the best friends and best enemies as well. One cannot say if Nitesh will stay with BJP or change his stance. But as of now things look very good for BJP and this coalition of BJP and JDU will be the big win in the eastern India. There will be lot of swing that can happen where BJP will lose its seats to INC/RJD and RJD/INC will lose its seats to BJP. This can be crucial for BJP. Bihar is divided into 4 regions, the tirhut region which is adjacent to Nepal, the Kosi belt, the seemanchal region dominated by Muslims and the Magadh region which is the center of power with 17 out of 40 seats. Whoever does well in Magadh will take Bihar and this time too BJP-JDU combine is likely to do very well in Magadh.Things can change but as of now BJP looks like losing 2 seats to opposition.

 

  1. North Eastern States: The Seven Sisters though have very less seats compared to other states. They will play big role in determining the winner in the Eastern India. Overall North East has 25 seats with highest seats coming from Assam. BJP has turned everything upside down in last 4 years and it has been sweeping in the assembly elections off late in north east. Assam, Tripura, Meghalaya and others. Expecting a big jump for BJP here, which will be a big add to their tally. Expecting BJP to score as high as 19 out of 25.

This is how the Eastern India Predictions look like with just less than a year to go for Lok Sabha elections. The tally after the overall prediction for Eastern India brings BJP 82 seats out of 153 seats while the INC sits at 21 and others at 50. BJP though is ahead of Others+INC in Eastern India by 9 seats, both Eastern and Southern India combined the tally stands at 122 compared to 163 for the opposition. If all the parties do come together BJP then this numbers look dangerous for BJP. Good news is when you compare BJP’s tally, it was 88 both East and South combined in 2014 but now it has jumped to 122. A big boost for BJP.

Next week I will be back with Western India, where there are no others. It’s a direct contest between BJP and Congress and in 2014 BJP literally swept every state and let’s see how many of it can they hold in 2019 and how much of a comeback Congress has made.

 

General Elections-2019! Mid Year Predictions – South India Region #LokSabha2019

It’s Tuesday and it’s my post day. Very recently the NDA Government has completed its 4th year of ruling and they have just 1 more year left before the Lok Sabha elections 2019 take place. Many surveys and polls have been conducted on to see what can happen in 2019 and look at the party’s performance state wise. Last year around this time I had given the seats that can be won by parties as on that day. Starting from today, for the next one month I will predict the seats that BJP, INC and others will be winning in 2019 elections.

These predictions are not of any survey done by me nor a copy of any survey of any TV channel. This is based on the political situations that exist in those states as on today, the perceptions of people reflected trough various surveys and polls coupled with my analysis. I have divided this into 5 parts. The first 4 parts will focus on four regions of India and in the last part I will give an all India picture.

Today it is the turn of BJP’s less favored region of South India. South India is complicated with every state having its own dynamics and the party which is there in one state is not there in other state. Like TRS which is only there in Telangana, TDP and YSRCP in Andhra Pradesh etc. South India includes states like Telangana (17), Andhra Pradesh (25), Karnataka (28), Kerala (20) and Tamil Nadu (39). Union territories Lakshadweep and Pondicherry with 1 seat each. Total of 132 seats.

  1. Telangana is the first state am going to predict. It has 17 seats in total and TRS, Congress, BJP, AIMIM and TDP are the parties contending. I give 10 seats to TRS mostly from North Telangana districts, 4 seats for BJP, coming from the City and other Urban places. Congress will have to limit itself with 2 seats from South Telangana.
  2. Andhra Pradesh another Telugu State which had seen a more than half seats going to coalition of BJP and TDP in 2014. Now with TDP and BJP becoming deadly enemies on the issue of special status, expect a tactical understanding of BJP with YSRCP to teach TDP a lesson. This understanding will exist more on ground and will not reflect as an alliance. This will majorly benefit BJP as YSRCP looks much stronger to capture power in AP. I give 13 out of 25 seats to YSRCP, coming from Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra equally and 4 seats for BJP coming from places like Vizag, Rajahmundry and probably Rajampet. TDP which won 15 seats last time will be reduced to 8.
  1. Karnataka, state which had elections just few days ago has seen a roller coaster of elections. JDS and Congress now with the coalition have confirmed that they will be participating as one in the Lok Sabha Elections. Will that hit them back or help them is something to be seen. As per my fundamental study I feel that it is going to be a little boost to BJP. Expecting a two seat jump to 19 from 17.  Major gains for BJP will come from Mumbai Karnataka where it will win 5 out of 6 seats, Coastal Karnataka where it will sweep all the 3 seats and Central Karnataka where it will win 5 out of 9 seats and also will win few seats in Hyderabad Karnataka and in Bangalore City and Mysore. Cong-JDS combine will be reduced to just 9 seats.
  2. Kerala is the only place in South India where BJP had no seats for many years. But that changed in the assembly elections of 2016 where it won its first seat and got more than 13% vote share and it is expected to do well in the 2019 elections. This is going to be a big plus for BJP if they manage to get the seats I am predicting. I am seeing victory in 5 seats for BJP compared to nothing in 2014. To add a point, in the year 2014 BJP had 10% vote share which jumped to 13% in 2016. So, at the same pace if the vote share goes to 17-18% then they will be able to win 5 seats. These seats will come from North Kerala region of Kasargod, probably in Thrissur and Thiruvananthapuram in South Kerala.
  1. Tamil Nadu – the state of confusion. We now have five big parties fighting out in this state. AIADMK, DMK, AIADMK, Rajnikanth’s new party, MNM of Kamal Hassan and the NDA which has parties like DK, DMDK, PMK and BJP. AIADMK with the amount of anti-incumbency is ruled out to win even one seat of the 39 seats. Last time Jayalalitha’s brand had given them 37 seats but now it’s really tough for them. Plus people voted for her as she put herself for the PM position in case if there is a hung parliament. It is going to be new players who will win it big this time. BJP will also make its inroads and win few major seats. Rajinikanth and Kamal Haasan are going to win it big this time. Rajinikanth with all his rural power will take highest number of seats, especially in South Tamilnadu. Rajnikanth will win 19 out of 40 seats mostly in Southern and Rural Tamilnadu, Kamal Hassan’s MNM will win 6 seats from Urban TN, BJP combine will win 7 seats mostly in western TN and Kanyakumari district. DMK is expected to get 7 seats mostly in Chennai city and North Tamilnadu.

Of the three union territories of Andamans, Pondicherry and Lakshadweep BJP will take Andamans and INC will take Pondicherry and Lakshadweep. So, here is the South India tally for this week.

Party 2019
BJP 40
INC 22
Others 70
Total 132

 

Overall, if we see the tally goes to 132 seats. Out of which BJP is looking set to win 40 seats as compared to 22 seats that they have won in the year 2014. With the support of TDP they had 37. This time even without the support of TDP they are looking to make big gain of 18 seats.

That’s how the overall tally looks with BJP at 40, INC at 22 and others at 70. South India which isn’t favorite region for BJP has made good ground to gain the seats. It all depends on how the parities strategize and win more seats. Other parties will have huge role to play in the South Indian region.

In my next Tuesday post, I will focus on the Eastern states of Orissa, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, West Bengal and North Eastern states. Wait for it!!

It’s Just Another Nifty Correction or are we heading to CRISIS?

It’s Just Another Nifty Correction or are we heading to CRISIS?

It’s been long time since I have written something on stock market and I think there is no other better time than today to write. All because of the

worries that are ruling the stock market. So, deviating from the promise that I made last week where I said I would give my predictions on Rajya Sabha polls, I am writing about markets. The reason is simple. In last one week many things have changed and many allies are deserting BJP and its not wise to predict anything as of now.

So, coming to the markets we have seen a lot of volatility in last one week. With Global Factors in negative plane and Domestic Factors adding to it the fall seemed to be immine

nt and it did happen. Investors need to very cautious at this point of time, because it is very crucial not to lose his patience and take a rash decision. I would say that this is worrying but it’s not game over yet. Let’s not panic because that will only make it worse for investors.

 

I have few points to discuss whic

h will make you to see the other side of the story. I have taken the point of analysis as the time when Modi came to power i.e. from May 2014.

  1. Correction is Obvious for Long Term Growth

If you look at the table given in the image you can see that in the history of stock market every time after good bullish run we had seen a fall that is ranging from 10% to 15% on Nifty. When the stock market goes up trending by 25%-35% there is always chance of 10% correction minimum. So, the correction that we are seeing now is natural because after the

demonetization we have moved all the way

up by 40% from 7980 to 11120 and now is the time to cool down a bit.

  1. Connecting Nifty 50, Bank Nifty, NSE Mid Cap 50 and BSE Small Cap 100

Nifty 50 is the major index that represents the Stock market of India. But there are also other Indices which are slowly gathering pace in the Stock Market. They are much riskier and have got lot of movement when compared to nifty. The average returns on Nifty for last 4 years are standing at 31.6% whereas the average fall is at -12%. Bank Nifty is with average returns of 46% and average fall of -16%, Mid Cap 50 with average returns of 45% and average fall of -13% and finally BSE Small Cap 100 with average returns standing at 53% versus fall of -14% average. That statistics shows that Nifty can mostly fall till 12% which is the lowest when compared to all other indices.

  1. Crisis and the fall comparing to 2008 vs 2018

There are also voices which are talking about the fall going as deep as the 2008 economic crisis. In 2008 Nifty fell from 6300 in Jan to 2525 in October month. Making it a worst fall ever in the history with a fall of 60% in just 10 months.  Coming to present situation, the patterns of chart look the same when compared to the 2008 crisis. But the factors that are there today are not that worrying as in 2008 and don’t carry huge weight to make the market crash as bad as 50%. The average fall of 10-12% is something that is surely acceptable and one should be able to take it.

All the voices talking about the fall due to NDA Govt and its policies doesn’t look strong. Because already in NDA Government Stock Market has seen three 10+% fall and seen huge recoveries. I would say that It’s just a correction and chances of big crash look low. That said, the target of 12,000 that we had thought of in the beginning of the year now looks very slim but its not impossible. If a 10% fall can happen in 2months then we have more 8 months for out target to be reached. So, never lose faith on the markets. Move cautiously, observe the fundamentals, evaluate the technical and use the Futures and Options wisely to make up for the money that you are losing on your portfolio!

So, cheer up India is shining!

Illogical Ideological Parties in India!

Illogical Ideological Parties in India!

In my last article on Politics I had written and Introduced what are the different ideologies that are being followed in the political landscape of India. In my previous post I have written on various political parties and their ideologies. Today I will continue the topic to take it to next level. I will speak about the Ideology less parties in the country. This is the one of the most sensitive topics I will be writing on.

Why Ideology is Important?

Firstly, I let me tell you that there cannot be any party which is minus ideology because it is the ideology that forms the core of the party. Like the Democrats in US have a center-left ideology where they give prominence to equality than religion and nationalism which is the ideology of Center-right Republican party. Unfortunately, in India there is lot of confusion on this left and right concept. Added to this is the confusion of regions coming in the way of the country. Examples are the TDP which was born more for restoring the pride of Telugu people and their dignity and TRS which was born to get a separate state of Telangana.  Apart from these, there are many parties at the All India level that are based on caste like BSP founded by Kanshi Ram and headed by Mayawati is a party to protect the interest of Dalits in India.  All these makes Indian democracy a game of thrones than the battle of ideologies.

Game of thrones remind me of TDP pulling Out of NDA!

Game of thrones remind me of TDP pulling out of NDA on the issue of Special Category Status which was promised at the time of division of AP. Now the BJP is quoting 14th economic commission which has no mention of special category status. Financial assistance to a state can be provided but special category status can’t be given. Every party knows this but now with elections just around the corner TDP to save face and go to people pulled out of NDA and not only that, it is also tabling a no confidence motion against BJP by aligning with YSRCP which is politically on the opposite ideology of TDP. Adding to irony it is the TRS support for TDP. Is this not so unsolicited action by TDP to join hands with TRS, remember TRS is the same party that was always against the Andhra and still are. All the TRS politicians made the Andhra people look like Pakistanis to the Telangana people. TRS Spoke about the jobs being looted by Andhra people. Now they also want to stand by TDP in supporting special category status.

See-Saw Games by Political parties

That’s the one part of the story. Other part and crucial part is that why is that people jump political parties. You jump parties when that party doesn’t give you what you desire. Will you change the party when you don’t get a party ticket or a minister post? This is a real big problem in the country. Neither the Voters nor the Politicians in the regional parties know the ideological differences, they only know the vote bank politics. Let the voters get themselves aware whom they are voting for, don’t vote for someone based on their promises and ever-changing manifesto, but vote for them on their ideology. To do that you need to first develop an ideology for yourself.

To end it finally, please don’t be a person who is ignorant about ideologies. Be either Right, Centre or Left. You need to have your own reasons for choosing the ideology and be bold about it. But the biggest negative is when you don’t have ideology because, a person minus ideology only tends to move towards the party in the trend! Don’t go with trend, go with your mind!

Predictions for 2019 Elections – Will Modi and NDA hit Brace?

General Elections 2019 – Will Modi retain the throne?

Even after 3 years Modi is still maintaining his magic and BJP and NDA are way ahead of Congress and UPA. This week am going to give the projected figures for BJP and NDA if elections are held in 2019 as things stand now. I have done this survey purely on the past data and have put seats on the vote percentages based on bye elections in various states and state assembly elections after 2014. The results show that BJP which got 282 on its own in 2014 might drop a bit and might get between 276-278 seats which still above the majority mark of 272.

BJP will lose in states like Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Haryana and Chattisgarh but might make up by picking up handsomely in North east, Kerala, Karnataka, Orissa and West Bengal. That more or less balances losses with the gains. NDA however might go up marginally from 321 to around 340 which is primarily to do with the AIADMK and JDU joining NDA and TDP, Shiv sena and Akali dal delivering better than what they delivered in 2014.

Let us now look at the state wise break up.

1. Andhra Pradesh: In 2014 elections there was an alliance between TDP-BJP which helped the combine to win 17 out of 25 seats. The combined vote share is 36%. YSRCP which won 8 seats had a vote share of 29%. Congress won 0 seats with vote share of 12%. If we look at the scenario of 2019 we need to look at the trends in bye elections in 2016 and 2017. The bye elections in Tirupati and Nandyal recently indicates a strong wave for TDP-BJP combine and they will win 20 out of 25 seats in 2019. That’s +3 for TDP-BJP combine.

2. Assam: 14 seats are there in Assam and BJP has been doing wonderful in the states from 2014. In 2014 BJP won 7 out of 14 seats. But the real turn around happened in 2016 assembly elections where NDA led by BJP got 42% vote share. Congress was 2nd with 31% vote. Having lost that feel good and if we take 38-40% vote for NDA and 31-33% for UPA in 2019, we get 9 seats
for NDA and 5 for UPA. That’s +2 for BJP in Assam.

3. Bihar: This is where BJP will make a huge gain. In 2014 elections BJP got 22 out of 40 seats with 39% vote share. JDU got 16% vote. Now if they fight together and even if BJP loses 10% vote share also because in 2014 it was a multi cornered contest the JDU-BJP combine will have 45% vote vs RJD-Cong combine of 28% vote. That would mean 25 seats for NDA and 15 seats for UPA. Here also its +3 seats up for BJP.

4. Chattisgarh: Chattisgarh has 11 seats and its always tug of war between Congress and BJP. In 2014 BJP won 10 out of 11 seats with 49% vote and congress 1 seat with 39% vote. Now the scene is bit changed. There were no bye elections happened after 2014 and the state will go for assembly elections in late 2018. That should provide a strong indicator. But with naxal problem not solved and bit of anti-incumbency I predict 6 seats for BJP with 45% vote and 5 for Congress with 44% vote. First time is -4 for BJP.

5. Delhi & Goa: Together they have 9 seats. In 2014 elections BJP won 9 out of 9 seats. More or less the popularity is intact and I see them not losing more than 2 seats in Delhi and 1 in Goa. So minimum they would get 6 out of 9 and congress 3. That’s one more -3 down for BJP.

6. Gujarat: It is the personal turf of Modi. Gujarat has 26 seats. In 2014 BJP won 26/26. With Amit shah in charge BJP will retain it hold. Whatever maybe the result of assembly elections BJP will maintain its 26/26 record in 2019 also. So, its status quo for BJP.

7. Haryana: It’s a complicated state with 10 seats. In 2014 BJP won 7 out of 10 with 35% vote. INLD a strong force in Haryana won 2 seats and Congress 1. However, in just few months the assembly elections saw BJP vote slipping to 33%. With strong anti-incumbency and Ram Rahim effect BJP is set to lose heavily in this state. I see a 10% drop in vote share which will take BJP to 25% and it might end up winning 3 seats. INLD might win 5 and Congress 2. That means its -4 for BJP here also.

8. Himachal and J&K: Put together these two states have 10 seats and BJP won 7 out of 10 here in 2014. Himachal will be cake walk for BJP and Jammu also might give BJP its 3 seats. So, this time also am expecting a 7 out of 10. That means status quo.

9. Jharkhand: This is a tribal state with 14 seats and in 2014 BJP did exceedingly well bagging 12 out of 14. BJP got 40% vote. In the assembly elections that followed BJP got 35% vote share. Keeping 32% as vote share because of anti-incumbency I see BJP bagging 9 out of 14 and UPA 5. That’s -3 for BJP again.

10. Karnataka: Karnataka has 28 seats and in 2014 BJP got 17 out of 28 getting 43% vote. This time Congress might suffer a setback in assembly elections and in 2019 I see BJP vote share going to 45% that means 21 out of 28 seats which is +4 more than 2014.

11. Kerala: In 2014 BJP scored zero out of 20 seats. But it got 10% vote share for the first time. But the good news comes from 2016 assembly elections where BJP got 15% vote. Since then they are on a rise and if we look at 2019 I expect BJP to touch 20% vote share which will give it minimum 6 seats in a 3-cornered contest. That’s a huge account opening for BJP and a +6 addition to its tally.

12. Madhya Pradesh: Madhya Pradesh has 29 seats and BJP won 27 out of it with 55% vote share. The recently held bye elections in 2 seats saw BJP getting a vote share of 48%. That is a drop of 7% which means BJP might end up at 23 and Congress 6 in 2019. That’s -4 for BJP from MP.

13. Maharashtra: It’s a very complicated state to predict. There are 48 seats here and BJP Shiv sena combined won 41 out of 48. BJP got 27% vote and Shiv sena 21% vote. But in the assembly elections later BJP went alone and got 28% vote and Shiv sena dropped to 19%. Now the scenario is different. BJP must be with Shiv sena and together both might end up with 45% vote. If Congress forms an alliance with NCP then they can together get 41% vote. That would mean 28 seats for NDA and 20 for UPA. That’s a huge drop of -13 seats. But if BJP manages to keep NCP away from congress and make it a 3-cornered fight then it might end up getting 36 seats which will be a drop of -5 which is a much better scenario.

14. North east: Minus Assam North east accounts for 10 seats and in 2014 BJP won just 1 out of 10 seats. But with Himantha Biswa Sarma making BJP strong in North east BJP will win the lone seat in Arunachal, 2 in Manipur, 2 in Meghalaya and 1 in Sikkim. That takes the total to 6 seats. That’s a +5 for BJP from North east.

15. Orissa: Orissa has 21 seats and BJP has been eyeing this state from a long time. In 2014 elections BJP was 3rd in Orissa with 21% vote share behind Congress that had 26% and BJD which had 44%. It won just 1 out of 21 seats. The Zilla parishad and municipal elections held in 2017 saw BJP making huge gains and if those stand then BJP’s vote share might go to 30% and BJD will drop to 40%. That would mean BJP winning 8 out of 21 seats and BJD getting 13. That means its +7 for BJP in Orissa, huge gains.

16. Punjab: Punjab has 13 seats and in 2014 BJP-Akali combine won 6 out of 13. The total vote share is just 29%. Congress won 3 seats with 33% vote and AAP won 4 seats with 30% vote. Now let’s look at the Punjab assembly elections in 2017. BJP’s vote share improved to 31% from 29%, Congress jumped to 39% from 33% and AAP reduced to 23% from 30%. By 2019 with aging Amrinder Singh not able to hold the reins and with AAP in tatters I see a sweep for BJP-Akali combine with 45% vote getting 10 seats and Congress with 35% vote reduced to 3. That’s a jump of +4 seats for BJP in Punjab.

17. Rajasthan: BJP got 25/25 seats in Rajasthan in 2014 and just few months before that they won the 200-member assembly with more than 170 seats. Rajasthan is one state that has huge anti-incumbency and every govt changes in 5 years. This time elections to the state assembly are scheduled at the end of 2018 and it’s going to be tough for BJP to fight the anti-incumbency. Congress has a good leader in Sachin Pilot who can match the popularity of Vasundhara Raje Scindhia. The recent by poll went in favor of BJP but that’s not an indicator that the vote is intact. BJP got 51% vote in 2014 and that’s likely to come to around 46% in 2019 and Congress that was at 31% in 2015 might go to 39% or so. That means 18 seats for BJP and 7 for Congress. That’s a loss of -7 seats to BJP.

18. Tamilnadu: Tamilnadu and Pondy have 40 seats between them and it’s in a mess. In 2014 AIADMK swept the state winning 37 out of 40 seats with 44% vote share. This time BJP wants an alliance with AIADMK. But is AIADMK strong after Amma is a big question. DMK got 24% vote and this will go up significantly. I see a 35% vote for AIADMK and 34% for DMK and a split mandate of 21 seats for BJP and 19 for DMK-Congress. That also means a huge jump of +21 seats for BJP as its zero in 2014.

19. Telangana: Telangana is a complex state with 17 seats and in 2014 BJP-TDP combine has 2 seats from here. Telangana is a TRS bastion and unless TRS joins NDA there is no chance for it. Maximum BJP can hope for is the Secunderabad seat to it. That means a loss of 1 seat. So, -1 for BJP from here. Congress can pick up handful seats here around 5, leaving 1 to MIM and 11 for TRS.

20. Uttar Pradesh: The largest state in India with 80 seats. BJP swept in 2014 getting 73 out of 80 with 43% vote share. If we compare 2017 assembly elections BJP managed to hold on to that high vote share and got 42%. But 2 years from now things will change and am seeing a 40% vote share and 60 seats for the BJP that means a huge drop of -13 seats.

21. Uttarakhand: It’s a small state with 5 seats and I expect BJP to bag all the 5 like 2014.

22. West Bengal: It has 42 seats and in 2014 BJP got 18% vote share and 2 seats. The recent bye poll in Bengal showed BJP crossing 30% vote share and stood behind TMC. If this holds on Bengal will be a big surprise and BJP will bag 10 seats. That’s up by +8 seats.

23. Union territories: There are 4 seats in UTs and BJP like 2014 will get 3 of them.