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40 Day Report of Monsoon in India and its Impact on Agriculture. #MonsoonInIndia

40 Day Report of Monsoon in India and its Impact on Agriculture.
This year for the first time I am going to write about the topic which is most talked about in the present condition and that is the Monsoon in the Country. I have in my older posts discussed about the importance of Rainfall for India and the stages of Monsoon. But this time in today’s post I would want to give an update on the present scenario of Rainfall in India and the its effect on Agriculture.
First let me give you the overview of South West Monsoon in India till Yesterday. As per the data released by IMD the rainfall in India is at 9% deficit and that’s a big worrying point. IMD predicted Monsoon to be in the range of 97%-103% now it is at 91%. July is the month which normally sees highest rainfall in the Country and we are in deficit. Though the 9% looks a small number the deficit when it comes to individual states is ranging anywhere between 15-50%. Yes, we cannot rule out the Rainfall picking up in the states and that taking the overall deficit to normal but at this moment India needs more rain which should happen in all the parts not in one singular place like how it is happening in past few days in Mumbai.
Let me now give you data of the rainfall in different states of India. If you see the rainfall status in India there are 18 states which are under deficit rainfall. Of the all the deficit states most of them are the states which are agriculturally driven states. The other states that are having a normal or excess rainfall don’t run much of agriculture activities. States like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha and Gujarat which are deep into deficit rainfall have lot of dependency on Agricultural activities. UP has highest deficit of 49% and others states have average deficit rainfall of 20%. This way the Rice in Kharif crop looks very problematic. The states where we have normal rainfall also are problem because the rains are happening mostly in the Urban parts not in the rural parts where the rainfall is required the most. I am attaching a screenshot which will give you more insights on the different states rainfall data till yesterday. Region wise if you see apart from South India region no other region is doing well. Reason being the Bay of Bengal wing of Monsoon which covers Northern and Central India is doing very bad and the Arabian sea wing of Monsoon is doing good.
Now other most important point to look into is the Crop Sowing which is directly related to Rainfall. In the other screenshot all the details of Crop Sowing in different states is given. So, if you look at the overall crop sowing in India. I will only discuss about the Rice crop as it is the highest consumed cereal in our country. As on 5th July 2018 the required sowing of paddy crop should be 85.65 hectares but the actual value is at 67.25 which is 22% deficit. Hectare here is equal to 2.47 acres. So in acres India needed to hit the target area of 211.55 acres but presently it stands at 166.0 acres. That’s a shortfall of 45.44 acres of Land. More into numbers – Each acre on an average gives 850 kgs of rice. That means we are now at deficit of 15,640 kgs which will have big impact on the prices thus leading to higher food inflation.
We know that in the last week itself Govt had raised the MSP(Minimum Support Price) from 1550 to 1750 which is 200 rupees increase. This step by Govt is going to increase the prices which will take the inflation upwards and adding to that this deficit sowing of Crop resulting in less production will increase prices more taking inflation more higher. Certainly this will not help the economy and India needs good amount of rainfall in the places like UP, Bihar and the other states where the rain is required! I will wait till 10th of August to give my final verdict on the amount of shortfall we will have in this season. For now, I can only hope that it will start raining in Central India and Northern India too and not just in Mumbai!!!

Weather Update 24th October 2017

Monsoon has withdrawn from North east and North west Bay of Bengal, some more parts of Telangana, Complete Maharashtra, Goa and many parts of Northern and Central Arabian sea. The withdrawal line as of 5.30pm today passes through Visakhapatnam, Suryapet, Golkonda, Vikarabad, Zaheerabad, Bidar, Gulbarga, Bijapur, Belgaum and Goa. Conditions are now favorable for South west monsoon to withdraw from rest of the country by 12noon tomorrow and North east monsoon might set in by 5.30pm tomorrow.

India as a whole got 0.8mm rain vs normal of 2.0mm which takes the overall rainfall to 907mm vs normal of 957mm which is 95% of LPA. South India is at 100%, Central India is at 96%, Eastern India at 94% and North-western India is at 90%.

Following is the ranking of different states based on the deviation of rainfall from normal between 1st June and 22nd October.

1. Rest of Northeast +25% (Final)
2. Andhra Pradesh +18%
3. Gujarat +18% (Final)
4. Tamilnadu +16%
5. Rajasthan +8% (Final)
6. Goa +7% (Final)
7. Maharashtra +4% (Final)
8. Jammu Kashmir +2% (Final)
9. Karnataka +2%
10. West Bengal 0% (Final)
11. Assam -2% (Final)
12. Uttarakhand -3% (Final)
13. Chattisgarh -7% (Final)
14. Orissa -7% (Final)
15. Telangana -8% (Final)
16. Jharkhand -8% (Final)
17. Arunachal Pradesh -9% (Final)
18. Bihar -9% (Final)
19. Kerala -10%
20. Himachal Pradesh -13% (Final)
21. Madhya Pradesh -20% (Final)
22. Punjab -22% (Final)
23. Haryana -26% (Final)
24. Uttar Pradesh -31% (Final)
20 out of 24 states have reported the final percentages and only 4 states are left now which are still covered by monsoon.
Hyderabad saw the monsoon withdrawal happening from 1.30pm to 4.30pm today and the monsoon line is at Golkonda by today evening 5.30pm. Tonight monsoon might withdraw from Mahbubnagar and Nalgonda district which are the only districts still covered by monsoon.
Telangana got 2.4mm rainfall in the last 24hrs vs normal of 2.5mm and that’s a deficit of -3%. That takes the total seasonal rainfall to 771mm vs normal of 835mm which is a deficit of -8%.

Following is the deviation of different districts from normal in the period between 1st June to 24th October.

1. Hyderabad +32% (Final)
2. Warangal +8% (Final)
3. Mahbubnagar +5%
4. Khammam -1% (Final)
5. Nalgonda -3%
6. Rangareddy -4% (Final)
7. Medak -10% (Final)
8. Karimnagar -16% (Final)
9. Nizamabad -17% (Final)
10. Adilabad -25% (Final)

Weather update 16th October

Monsoon has withdrawn from some more parts of India due to the low pressure in the bay of bengal. Today it has withdrawn from 10% of India’s geographical area and now monsoon is out of 70% of the country. Monsoon today has withdrawn from the entire Bihar, entire Jharkhand, entire West bengal, 15% of North east, 60% of orissa, 90% of chattisgarh and 40% of Maharashtra. Conditions are favourable for the monsoon to withdraw from the entire country by 18th or 19th of October. The withdrawal line passes through Guwahati in Assam, Chirrapunji in Meghalaya, puri in orissa, Jagdalpur in chattisgarh, Chandrapur, Aurangabad and Nashik in Maharashtra.
The low pressure that was concentrated around 900kms east of Nellore yesterday evening has moved now in the Western direction and located in East central bay of bengal around 700kms East of Chennai around 9PM on 16th October. It is likely to remain static and likely to intensify into a depression by 17th October 8AM. Wind speeds are likely to reach 55-60kmph.
South India got an excess rainfall of +50% while the other regions got deficit rainfall. India as a whole got 2.4mm rain vs normal of 2.2mm. That takes the total seasonal rainfall from 1st June to 16th October to 901mm vs normal of 940mm which is 96% of LPA. South India is at 101%, Central India is at 96%, Eastern India at 94% and North-western

India is at 90%. Following are the top 5 wettest states in India.

1. Telangana +201%
2. Maharashtra +182%
3. Karnataka +138%
4. Andhra Pradesh +71%
5. Rest of Northeast +11%

Following is the ranking of different states based on the deviation of rainfall from normal between 1st June and 16th October.

1. Tamilnadu +29%
2. Andhra Pradesh +26%
3. Rest of Northeast +25%
4. Gujarat +18% (Final)
5. Rajasthan +8% (Final)
6. Goa +7%
7. Karnataka +4%
8. Maharashtra +4% (Final)
9. Jammu Kashmir +2% (Final)
10. West Bengal 0% (Final)
11. Assam -2%
12. Uttarakhand -3% (Final)
13. Telangana -5%
14. Chattisgarh -7% (Final)
15. Orissa -7% (Final)
16. Jharkhand -8% (Final)
17. Kerala -8%
18. Arunachal Pradesh -9%
19. Bihar -9% (Final)
20. Himachal Pradesh -13% (Final)
21. Madhya Pradesh -20% (Final)
22. Punjab -22% (Final)
23. Haryana -26% (Final)
24. Uttar Pradesh -31% (Final)
15 out of 24 states have reported the final percentages and only 9 states are left now.
Hyderabad got good amount of rainfall in last 24 hours ending at 2.30PM. All the rainfall was between 2.30PM to 6.30PM. Looks like this is the last bit of rainfall that the Hyderabad city got as a part of South west monsoon. Hyderabad on an average got 4.6mm rainfall vs normal of 2.8mm and that takes the total seasonal rainfall from 1st June to 16th October to 952mm vs normal of 699mm which is +36% more than the normal.

Following is the rainfall recorded in 6 different observatories located in Hyderabad.

1. Shamirpet 22.4mm
2. Begumpet 6.2mm
3. Saroornagar 3.8mm
4. Hakimpet 3.2mm
5. Golkonda 3.0mm
6. Hayatnagar 0.2mm
Telangana got plenty of rainfall on Sunday evening and the average rainfall is 7.2mm vs normal of 2.4mm which is an excess of +201%. That takes the total seasonal rainfall to 766mm vs normal of 812mm which is deficit of just -5%.

Following is the deviation of different districts from normal in the period between 1st June to 16th October.

1. Hyderabad +36%
2. Warangal +10%
3. Mahbubnagar +7%
4. Khammam +1%
5. Rangareddy 0%
6. Nalgonda 0%
7. Medak -9%
8. Karimnagar -15%
9. Nizamabad -18%
10. Adilabad -24%

Weather update 4th October

Monsoon became weak with South India only getting an excess rain of +22%. The other regions almost had no rainfall. India as a whole got 2.3mm rain vs normal of 4.3mm which is a deficit of -47%. That takes the total seasonal rainfall to 856mm vs normal of 904mm. That is 95% of LPA. South India is at 100%, Eastern India is at 96%, Central India at 95% and North western India is at 90% of LPA.

Following are the top 5 wettest states in India.

1. Andhra Pradesh +75%
2. Tamilnadu +60%
3. Arunachal Pradesh+29%
4. Karnataka -11%
5. Chattisgarh -13%

Following is the ranking of different states based on the deviation of rainfall from the normal from 1st June to 4th October.

1. Tamilnadu +29%
2. Rest of Northeast +24%
3. Andhra Pradesh +20%
4. Gujarat +18%
5. Rajasthan +8%
6. Goa +7%
7. Jammu Kashmir +2%
8. Maharashtra -1%
9. West Bengal -2%
10. Assam -2%
11. Karnataka -3%
12. Uttarakhand -3%
13. Orissa -8%
14. Arunachal Pradesh -8%
15. Jharkhand -9%
16. Kerala -9%
17. Bihar -10%
18. Chattisgarh -10%
19. Telangana -11%
20. Himachal Pradesh -13%
21. Madhya Pradesh -20%
22. Punjab -22%
23. Haryana -26%
24. Uttar Pradesh -29%
Hyderabad got normal rain in last 24 hours ending at 2.30pm today. The city on an average got 2.6mm rain vs normal of 2.8mm rain.

Following is the rainfall in 6 observatories located in the city.

1. Saroornagar 24.2mm
2. Hakimpet 3.6mm
3. Hayatnagar 2.2mm
4. Shamirpet 1.4mm
5. Begumpet 1.0mm
6. Golkonda 0.8mm
Telangana on an average got 2.0mm vs normal of 3.3mm which is a deficit of -39%. That takes the total seasonal rainfall ro 685mm vs normal of 773mm which is a deficit of -11%.

Following is the percentage rainfall in different districts from 1st June to 4th October.

1. Hyderabad +23%
2. Warangal +6%
3. Khammam +2%
4. Nalgonda -3%
5. Mahbubnagar -5%
6. Rangareddy -8%
7. Medak -13%
8. Karimnagar -24%
9. Nizamabad -25%
10. Adilabad -29%

Weather update 21st July

Monsoon Report

Monsoon is active today also in the country and India got 11.1mm rain vs normal of 9.6mm. That takes the total to 365mm vs normal of 357mm which is 102% of LPA. Central India and Eastern India got good rain in last 24 hours while South and North western India got less than normal rain. With this South India has 95% of LPA rain while central India is at 110%, North west India at 115% and Eastern India is still at 89% of LPA.
Hyderabad remained totally dry in the last 24 hours ending at 2.30pm today. So the total seasonal rainfall stays at 298mm vs normal of 218mm which is 37% more than the normal. Telangana as a whole got 1.4mm rain vs normal of 9.3mm taking the total to 335mm vs normal of 286mm which is 17% more than normal.

Following is the data for individual districts of Telangana.

Khammam +47%
Hyderabad +37%
Warangal +30%
Rangareddy +25%
Mahaboobnagar +21%
Nalgonda +18%
Medak +18%
Karimnagar +4%
Nizamabad +1%
Adilabad -6%

Following is the rainfall in important cities in India last night and today morning

Srinagar 0mm
Shimla 0mm
Chandigarh 0mm
Delhi 2.7mm
Jaipur 0.8mm
Bhopal 87.2mm
Ahmedabad 88.5mm
Mumbai 41.0mm
Mangalore 9.0mm
Kochi 21.2mm
Bangalore 0mm
Chennai 0mm
Vijayawada 0.2mm
Bhubneshwar 0.1mm
Kolkata 0.7mm
Guwahati 1.1mm
Patna 29.6mm
Lucknow 0.4mm

Weather Update 19th July

click Weather Update
Monsoon has progressed further and now it has covered the entire country. It is 4 days late and in last 7 years monsoon never got so delayed in setting. But rainfall was very high in South India and Central India and India as a whole got 14.1mm rain vs normal of 10.0mm. With this the total rainfall this season reached to 343.4mm vs normal of 338.4mm That is 101% of LPA. South India is at 94% of LPA, central India 108% LPA, North west India 118% LPA and Eastern India is at 88% LPA.
Hyderabad got a very good rainfall for 2nd day running. City on an average recorded 29.6mm rainfall in last 24 hours ending at 2.30pm today vs normal of 4.9mm. That takes the total seasonal rain to 291mm vs normal of 203mm which is +43% higher than normal.

Following is the distribution in 6 observatories located in the city.

Begumpet 39.7mm
Hakimpet 35.2mm
Shamirpet 31.6mm
Hayatnagar 25.4mm
Saroornagar 23.4mm
Golkonda 19.4mm
Telangana as a whole 15.2mm rain vs normal of 8.0mm and that takes the total seasonal rainfall to 327mm vs the normal of 269mm which is 22% higher than the normal. Till yesterday it was 20% higher.

Following is the rainfall in important places in Telangana

Adilabad 41mm
Badrachalam 19mm
Nalgonda 17mm
Ramagundam 17mm
Warangal 12mm
Nizamabad 11mm
Khammam 9mm
Mahaboobnagar 6mm
Medak 1mm

Following is the rainfall in important cities in India in last 24 hrs ending today morning

Srinagar 3.5mm
Jammu 24.4mm
Shimla 2.0mm
Chandigarh 0mm
Delhi 0mm
Jaipur 0mm
Lucknow 2.9mm
Patna 0mm
Kolkata 5.3mm
Guwahati 18.2mm
Bhubneshwar 32.9mm
Vijayawada 74.2mm
Chennai 0.1mm
Bangalore 9.0mm
Kochi 30.2mm
Mangalore 6.6mm
Mumbai 79.3mm
Ahmedabad 17.5mm
Bhopal 1.0mm

Indian Monsoon Report Mid-July

Breaking News: Record rains, Indian Monsoon is outstanding, IMD as predicted rainfall is at 100%. These are few headlines that newspapers and media are using to describe Indian Monsoon.

Great, another year of good monsoon is it? I would wait and say not too early!
Because it is not at all what as it looks. Let me explain you it the way it is.

When you see it’s raining for last 2 days at Hyderabad, you would think this year monsoon has been fantastic. When you read in papers that India got 330 millimetres rainfall till now against the normal of 330mm you would feel satisfied that the country as a whole is at normal. But have you seen how it is distributed across the country?

Was it uniform or is there a imbalance? Let’s look at the deficits in region wise and state wise.
India 0%
North India +21%
Western India +4%
South India -8%
Eastern India -12%

One thing is very clear. India is not uniform. North and west have excess rains whereas South and East have less than normal rains.

Now lets see how they are distributed state-wise.

1. Andhra Pradesh +19%
2. Telangana +20%
3. Karnataka -19%
4. Kerala -25%
5. Tamilnadu -17%
6. Maharashtra 0%
7. Gujarat +26%
8. Madhya Pradesh -1%
9. Chattisgarh +1%
10. Orissa +5%
11. West bengal -20%
12. Assam -16%
13. Arunachal Pradesh -13%
14. North east states +5%
15. Bihar -4%
16. Jharkhand -24%
17. Uttar pradesh 0%
18. Uttarakhand +18%
19. Haryana +18%
20. Punjab +19%
21. Himachal Pradesh -4%
22. Jammu Kashmir +60%
23. Rajasthan +30%

Out of 23 states taken, 11 states have more than normal rainfall, 10 states have less than normal rainfall and 2 states have exactly normal rainfall. So, the rainfall is not equally distributed in all states. Some of these states are agrarian states and some are non-agrarian. Overall everything looks balanced but one needs to understand that its like half of the members of the family working, while other half is just wasting their time. That is never good for a family, likewise this is not good for the country. Some of the regions in these states are agriculturally very important. Lets look at the agricultural regions and how it is raining there.

Agriculturally important regions

1. Assam: paddy crop It has a deficit of -16%
2. West bengal: Paddy crop it has a deficit of -20%
3. Bihar: Paddy crop it has a deficit of -4%
4. Jharkhand: Paddy crop it has a deficit of -24%
5. Orissa: Paddy crop has a surplus of +5%
6. Coastal Andhra: Paddy crop has a surplus of +19%
7. Kerala: paddy crop it has a deficit of -25%
8. Maharashtra: Sugarcane and Cotton rainfall is normal at 0%
9. Uttar pradesh: Sugarcane and rice rainfall is normal at 0%

So, 5 out of 7 rice growing states have a deficit rainfall. Only Andhra and Orissa are good. This will affect the rice crop unless there is good rain in coming days.

Agriculturally not important states

1. Rajasthan +30%
2. Jammu kashmir +60%
3. Gujarat +26%
4. North east +5%
5. Tamilnadu -17%
6. Chattisgarh +1%
7. Telangana +20%

Most of the non agricultural states have got plenty of rainfall. That is the sad part. Telangana is not agriculturally important as it does not grow the food crops like rice or wheat in a sizable quantities. The other states are the states where rabi crop is more important and these states are Punjab and MP which grows wheat in winter and Tamilnadu which grows rice in November. so the monsoon is not as it looks. There is a deficit which we are not able to see. So, one needs to see it in the deeper way and understand the data. Let’s hope that the remaining period of monsoon is good and bridges all these gaps.

Weather update 18th July

Weather update

Rainfall activity picked up in India with southern and central India getting plenty of rainfall. The rain was however deficit in North western and Eastern India. India as a whole got 12.3mm rain vs normal of 10.0mm till 2.30pm today. That takes the total rainfall of the season to 329.2mm vs normal of 328.4mm which is 100% of the LPA. South India is at 92% LPA, Central India at 104%, North west India at 121% and Eastern India at 88% of LPA.
Hyderabad city got bountiful rainfall last evening and the city on an average got 41.8mm rain vs normal of 5.2mm. That is 704% higher than normal taking the total rainfall in the season from 1st June to 18th July to 262mm vs normal of 198mm that is 32% higher than the normal.

Following is the rainfall in last 24 hrs till 2.30pm today.

Hayatnagar 72.4mm
Golkonda 64.2mm
Begumpet 60.2mm
Saroornagar 56.4mm
Hakimpet 36.4mm
Shamirpet 24.8mm
Telangana got 19.2mm rain vs normal of 7.6mm which is 153% higher than normal. Every district except Adilabad district got huge amount of rainfall. The total rainfall from June 1st till today for Telangana is at 312mm vs normal of 261mm. That is 20% higher than normal.

Following is the rainfall in important places of Telangana.

Khammam 63mm
Nalgonda 42mm
Medak 29mm
Badrachalam 15mm
Nizamabad 13mm
Warangal 12mm
Mahaboobnagar 8mm
Ramagundam 3mm
Adilabad 2mm

Fifith factor affecting Indian Monsoon

In my previous posts on monsoon I have introduced the four factors that affect the Indian monsoon. Once again, the list of the factors that affect Indian Monsoon are
1. ENSO – EL Nino southern oscillator
2. Mascarene High
3. Indian Ocean Dipole
4. Heating up of Indian mainland

There is a fifth and final factor that affects the monsoon and it happens in two phases. First phase in the last week of May and 2nd phase in mid of July. Today I will talk about the first phase of the fifth factor. That is the confirmation that we get by looking at the rainfall in 14 observational centers located in Lakshadweep, Kerala and coastal Karnataka. Minimum of 8 out of these 14 observational centers should record more than 2.5mm rain for 2 consecutive days for the declaration of the onset of monsoon.

follow link Which are these 14 observational centers?

Here is the list with the rains recorded in last 2 days.

Lakshadweep 28th 29th
1. Aminidivi 0mm 2mm
2. Minicoy 11mm 4mm

Kerala
3. Trivandrum 12mm 33mm
4. Punalur 6mm 56mm
5. Kollam 5mm 60mm
6. Allaphy 7mm 95mm
7. Kottayam 5mm 48mm
8. Kochi 51mm 47mm
9. Trissur 6mm 0mm
10. Kozikode 8mm 19mm
11. Talaserry 1.6mm 4.6mm
12. Kannur 4mm 1mm
13. Kasargode 11.4mm 0mm

Karnataka
14. Mangalore 0mm 10mm

11 out of 14 observational stations and 10 out of 14 observational stations have recorded more than 2.5mm rain. Minimum required is 8. So since the criterion was fulfilled they waited for south westerly directional winds to bring rain today. This happened between 1PM and 2PM in Southern Kerala in Trivandrum, Kollam and Kochi districts. So monsoon arrival has been declared by IMD. Monsoon came 2 days before scheduled date of 1st June.

source So, what next?

Yes, monsoon has hit Indian southern coast Kerala. Which is a very good news for India as whole. Farmers are the happiest right now as the monsoon hits India bringing cheer in their hearts. Not just the farmers, Stock Market will also celebrate this news.

Does that mean that its going to be a good monsoon?

Does that mean that monsoon will arrive before time in the whole of country. The answer is yes and no. It may it may not. There should not be a El nino, Mascere high pressure should be maintained and IOD temperature gradient should be maintained. Then only monsoon will be excess or normal. So we will have to wait and watch.

Meanwhile here are the normal dates of arrival of monsoon in different cities in India.
Trivandrum 1st June
Chennai 1st June
Coimbatore 1st June
Kochi 2nd June
Bangalore 3rd June
Vijayawada 3rd June
Mangalore 4th June
Hyderabad 6th June
Goa 6th June
Visakhapatnam 7th June
Kolkata 7th June
Pune 9th June
Mumbai 10th June
Patna 12th June
Nagpur 12th June
Ahmedabad 14th June
Bhopal 14th June
Lucknow 19th June
Kanpur 21st June
Agra 25th June
Delhi 29th June
Shimla 30th June
Srinagar 1st July
Chandigarh 1st July
Jaipur 5th July
Amritsar 10th July
Jaisalmer 15th July

India has weighted rainfall of 887.5mm for every monsoon. India in last monsoon (2016) had rainfall of 862.0mm which is 3% lesser than the standard requirement. Likewise, every place in India has standard normal rainfall that has to be met to be called as good monsoon for that state.

For example: Telangana has normal rainfall of 755.2 mm and in last year monsoon it has received 889.8mm which is 19% more than the required making it excellent monsoon.

Next up is the arrival and withdrawal of the Monsoon. Monsoon covers the entire India by 15th July and starts withdrawing from 5th September. This withdrawal process goes on till 15th October which is the last day and that’s when monsoon exists India through Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka.

In the pictures added you can see the standard rainfall for each state and the actual performance of Monsoon 2016 and in the second picture you can look at the arrival dates of Rainfall in India across the states.

Wishing that the Monsoon stays long and give plenty of rain which will help farmers prosper and in turn help in India economic growth and also serve to the world by improving Agro-based exports!

#Monsoon #India #SriramGurujala 

http://www.imd.gov.in/pages/monsoon_main.php