Tag Archives: Lok Sabha Elections

All about the Mood of Maharashtra in this Maha Elections #LokSabha #Elections2019

India’s biggest State in terms of GDP and the state that every Indian dream to visit and fulfil their dreams ‘Maharashtra’ will go for elections in the month of April. People of Maharashtra will vote in the four phases from 11th April to 29th April.

There are 288 seats in Maharashtra Assembly where a party will need 145 seats for a majority. Coming to Lok Sabha, Maharashtra has 48 seats. Maharashtra is the second largest state in terms of Lok Sabha after Uttar Pradesh which has got 80 seats. The third is West Bengal with 42 seats and fourth is Bihar with 40 seats.

First, let’s look at the 4 regions:
Maharashtra Assembly Constituencies Map

1. Konkan & Goa Region – Coastal region on Maharashtra

2. Madhya Maharashtra – Entire belt after Pune

3. Marathwada- North and South of Maharashtra adjacent to Madhya Maharashtra

4. Vidarbha – Eastern Maharashtra bordering to Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. Nagpur is the capital of this region and comparable the backward regions of all.

Let’s look at the dates and seats phase-phase:

• April 11th – Vidarbha 7 seats

• April 18th – Most of Marathwada 10 seats

• April 23rd – Konkan & Goa 14 seats

• April 29th – Northern part of Marathwada 17 seats

Not to forget the big city in the country, Mumbai will be going for polls in the 4th phase and it has got 8 seats.

1. Kalyan (Outskirts)

2. Thane (Outskirts)

3. Mumbai North

4. Mumbai Northwest

5. Mumbai Northeast

6. Mumbai North Central

7. Mumbai South Central

8. Mumbai South

Source: Latestly

Fact check:

There are totally 8.73 crore registered voters of which there are 21 lakh first-time voters. Off 94,473 polling areas, 55,814 are rural areas and 39659 are urban polling booths.

The Big Fight: 2019 Lok Sabha polls

Maharashtra has 4 big parties, Shivsena, BJP, Congress and NCP. Shivasena was started by Balasaheb Thackeray in the early 1960s and he is the sole reason for many changes in Maharashtra. NCP was started by Sharad Pawar in 1996 after coming out of Congress. The irony is he is now with the same congress as an ally which he left 25 years ago. Though there are 4 parties it is always 2 cornered fight in the Elections. BJP is aligned with Shiva Sena and Congress is aligned with NCP. Till 2009 Cong-NCP dominated in most of the elections and they held power in the state for 15 years from 1999-2014.

Things though changed in 2014 when Maharashtra went all to BJP+Shiva Sena. BJP+SS won as many as 41 seats out of 48 seats, in which BJP won 23 and Shiva Sena took 18. Rest went for 4 NCP and 2 to Congress and the 1 went to the local party which in some days joined BJP.

That’s the strength BJP has grown to in Maharashtra. Lately, there have been differences in Shiva Sena and BJP. But, at the right moment, BJP and Shiv Sena have come together and announced their alliance. Adding to Congress woes, a lot of people walked out from Congress citing the reasons for unhappiness with the performance of Congress. Shocking is that the Leader of opposition Radha Krishna Vikhe Patil who was projected to be as CM if INC won in 2014 also joined BJP. First, it was his son over the disappointment of not getting Ahmed Nagar seat which was given to NCP. Next morning even the father left the party to join BJP. This proves that the alignment is not good and the condition of Congress with NCP is really bad.

This is how the story is getting unfolded in Maharashtra. Finally, an opinion poll by India Today and Karvy says that the BJP and Shiva Sena coalition will win 42 seats which are one seat more than last time. This will mean that the ruling BJP and Shiv Sena will sweep Maharashtra. Let’s wait and watch for the polls and then the counting on May 23rd!

Indian Stock Markets are on a roll as Nifty rallies 2.5% in the last 4 days and 6.75% in the last 3 weeks!

Hello Everyone, this post is a continuation to the last week. In the last week, I had written and explained about the movement of the NIFTY during the General Elections 2014 and compared them to the present scenario. Nothing has changed when it comes to the political decisions are concerned in the last week, but the mood of the market has entirely changed. Last Tuesday NIFTY closed at 10987 and today it closed at 11301 which is 2.85% up move. The only big event that has happened in last one week is the release of election dates for Elections 2019.

Election Commission has decided the dates for the Lok Sabha Elections 2019 on Saturday. Seven phase election is scheduled to begin on the 11th of April and conclude on the 19th of May. Counting is scheduled to be held on May 23rd which is a week later than the last two General Elections. This week has begun on a very different note with NIFTY going up by 1.2% and 1.19% on both the days. This kind of move is only possible when there is a lot of buying in the Delivery channel. Delivery buying is the type of buying where the stocks are bought for investment purpose. Usually, delivery buying is for a minimum of 2 weeks to 3 months.

But should there be a rally before the elections and the important results?

Simply because markets are the leading indicators for the Indian economy. Leading indicator here means something which has the hint of future and tries to jump into the future for a better valuation. Markets everywhere read the future and they trade accordingly.

Who is this Mr/Ms Market?

Obviously, it is the Public. The market is we the people of the country. This includes the High net-worth individuals, individual investors, foreign investors, mutual funds etc. So it is basically the people’s opinion. Keeping it simple, we can call the investors as Domestic and Foreign. Right now we can say that 70% of contribution comes from Foreign investors and 30% comes from Domestic investors. That makes it more clear that the Foreign investors believe that there is positive news coming from the elections. The positive news here at the moment is the re-election of NDA to power.

That proves that it’s the people who take the market forward and these people include all kinds.

How long will this rally Sustain?

Going by the past rally during the General Elections 2014, it was seen that NIFTY was at 6000 at the beginning of February month and on the day of results NIFTY was trading at 7142. This is an astonishing growth of 19% in just 3 and a half months. Going by this simple equation, NIFTY has gone from 10600 in the middle of February to 11320 in the middle of March, which is again a 6.75% growth in just 1 month. With the results being pushed a week we can conservatively expect the Markets to hit 12,000 minimum on the results day. This will mean the Markets will move another 6% up from tomorrow. I repeat 6% is minimum growth it has got all legs to hit 10-12% as well. All this is on the narrative that BJP will come back to the Power in 2019 Elections.

What’s in the store for Investors?

NIFTY 50 Stocks and their returns during build up to General Elections 2014 and General Elections 2019.

Returns, High Returns!! Yes, in the last post also I have discussed how the stocks have made big money from March 2014 to May 2014. The average returns of the portfolio of the 10 stocks from NIFTY gave 31.38% in only 80 days. The same portfolio when calculated this year from Feb 28th till date i.e. 12th March has given 6.7% average returns. By going with the past trends it’s clear that you can make a minimum of 20% returns. Don’t wait and invest in the markets. Especially in the large-cap NIFTY stocks for safe returns. My feeling is obviously to invest and make ‘BIG’ money by the time counting day comes. #NiftyNeedsNamo

Okay! That’s about the Markets and Elections. If this is how interesting the Elections are turning out to be, how can one miss the action? I wouldn’t want to and I hope there are more like me. So, for the next 10 weeks leading to the counting day of Lok Sabha elections 2019, I will be writing posts relating to Elections 2019 for two times in a week. Once on a Tuesday and the other one on Friday. In these posts, I will be writing about the situations, opinions polls, who’s ahead and who’s losing, what each leader are saying and doing, and analyse the mood of the nation leading up to next 72 days!

Stocks that could be Big Winners for next 6 months, but just one condition!

General elections 2019 are just around the corner and the news channels have started the countdown for the big day. This time the battle is expected to be a cliff hanger and a last ball nail biter. There have been many blame games, dashes, cheap tricks, low level comments made by every possible politician. Unfortunate things have happened in the country in the last 1 month and India is fighting it hard and trying to compensate for the loss that we had. This post I will jump back to 2014 and bring out some interesting data oriented analysis from the Stock Market field to show how the stocks predict the winner much before the Exit Polls could.

Firstly, today NIFTY had a big rally after having a waiting game for last few days. Today NIFTY went up by 123 points to close at 10987, coinciding fact that on the first Tuesday of also 2014 NIFTY went up 125 points to close 6526 points.

Few points:

  1. NIFTY50 went up by 18.4% from March 2014 to May 2014 which is just 2 months and barring this year which has been a volatile year, NIFTY since BJP win gone up by 60% till March 2018.
  2. Stocks like Maruti Suzuki went from 1582 to 2386 which is 50% uptrend in just 2 months. The same stock since the 2014 Election is up by 271%.
  3. Random 9 NIFTY 50 stocks which have gone up by 40% and above.
  4. Maruti – 271%
  5. HDFC Bank – 169%
  6. HUL – 137%
  7. HDFC – 100%
  8. Cipla – 65%
  9. Bajaj Auto – 50%
  10. Axis Bank – 43%
  11. L&T – 43%
  12. ICICI Bank – 43%
  13.  Now let’s look at the same stocks and their performance from March 2018 to till date
  14. Maruti – (-19%)
  15. HDFC Bank – (-4%)
  16. HUL – 29%
  17. HDFC – 11%
  18. Cipla – (-18%)
  19. Bajaj Auto – (-2%)
  20. Axis Bank – 36%
  21. L&T – (-10%)
  22. ICICI Bank – (-4%)

Looking at the data of the stocks returns, it’s clear that there is a big uptrend in the stocks right after the elections. Interestingly well before the results could come stocks have rapped up very high returns. 2 months saw average of 25% returns for a Nifty50 stock with SBI making highest of 80% returns, followed by the stocks like Maruti, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank.

This small study is to bring out the possible stocks that could return good money if invested. Today was the day of a sign by Market. It all depends on whether this is a real trend or a false trend. It’s all going to be real tough to predict the winner of the 2019 elections but one always knows that the ruling party has got higher chance than any other party. As we are looking at the behaviour of the stock markets in the last 5 years and the last 2 months before elections. It’s also important that the investor decides the right stock which is only possible through proper study and obviously a little intuition and finally risk taking ability. Right now, the risk rates are very high and so will be the returns.

The condition for the above stocks to perform well and fetch you minimum of 20% returns in 2 months is victory for the ruling party.  Don’t hurry up and take positions tomorrow. Wait at least for a week to see if Nifty is really on an uptrend. If Nifty sustains and remains above 11000 then its time to re-invest again. I wold tell you how to do it in my next Tuesday post. Till then observe the trend.

What’s the outlook for Indian Stock Markets for the next 3 months?

What’s the outlook for Indian Stock Markets for the next 3 months?

Politics is one of the major fundamentals in the movement of the Stock Market. Generally, markets react very sharply to any kind of unfavourable measures taken by the Govt for the economy. So when it comes to elections, the moment the ‘markets’ don’t get the desired result the reaction would be severe to watch. There are days when Stock markets have shown rapid upwards and downwards movement riding on the outcome of the elections. Till early 2012 stock markets were solidly behind UPA led by Congress. But a series of scams that took place later changed the sentiment and from mid-2013 it wanted the NDA led by BJP to come to power.


The measurement starts from February 2014, exactly 5 years ago when there were opinion polls that put NDA ahead of UPA. That is where Nifty started its journey from 6000. This mark of 6000 was reached way back in 2008 and from then on Nifty was stuck there. By the time results came towards the end of May Nifty scaled 7000. Then the victory of BJP in Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Haryana in late 2014 pushed it to 8000 mark. Just before the results of Delhi and Bihar in March 2015 Nifty scaled 9000. But the losses for BJP in both the states pushed Nifty back all the way to 7000 and from there it started its journey back again upwards. Just before demonetization, Nifty scaled 9000 again November 2016 but it took the massive victory of Uttar Pradesh in March 2017 that made Nifty to capture 10000. The subsequent victories in Gujarat in November 2017 and Karnataka in early 2018 pushed Nifty to 11000 mark. But that was the end. The losses in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan brought it back to 10500 levels and now we are back to the situation again we started 5 years ago, with Lok Sabha elections, just around the corner.

Here are the dates of different elections in the past for your reference.

2014 May – General Elections
2014 November – Maharashtra, Haryana & Jharkhand
2015 March – Bihar & Delhi
2016 November – Demonetization
2017 March – Uttar Pradesh
2017 November – Gujarat
2018 April – Karnataka
2018 December – Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh & Rajasthan

If the things really turn out to be negative for BJP and if so-called 3rd Front supported by Congress forms the Government, we are to see a big fall in the markets and NIFTY could well go to 6000 mark yet again. This 6000 mark is something that Nifty tested in 2008, 2010 and 2014. Now we might go back to where we have started. Even if Congress forms a minority Govt also thing won’t be different and we might test the 6000 levels. In another scenario, if things change for good and BJP starts gaining its momentum in the last few left out days, with the mood of the Nation NIFTY will also react positively and it can hit 11,000 after the budget. This is only because of a positive feeling about the Govt.

Once the results come in for the BJP then we shall see the NIFTY moving all the way towards 12000 and by the time Modi takes the oath again, he will be welcomed by another all-time high of 12000 on Nifty, just like how it welcomed Modi in 2014 with an all-time high of 7000! So, interesting 100 days ahead of us!

Indian General Elections Predictions 2019 – Mid Year Predictions – #LokSabha2019

BJP will not win a majority, but nobody else other than BJP can form a Govt in 2019!

Hello Everyone. Tuesday is here and I am back with my final post on 2019 Elections Predictions. I have in my last 4 posts on elections predicted the seats that the parties are going to win in the coming 2019 elections. We have seen that it is BJP which is ahead but not enough to win the elections on their own capacity. Apart from this there are few more very important points to be considered which are crucial. Standing on today as per the present situations my predictions are given below:

NDA = 289, UPA = 104, Third Front = 90 and Fourth Front = 60!

NDA
  1. BJP                         240
  2. JDU(Bihar) 19
  3. Shiv Sena             16
  4. Others                  14
UPA
  1. INC                        78
  2. DMK                     5
  3. RJD                       8
  4. NCP                      4
  5. Others                 9
Third Front
  1. TDP                       8
  2. Kamal Haasan    6
  3. CPI/CPM              8
  4. TMC                      30
  5. SP+BSP                 32
  6. Others                 6
Fourth Front
  1. TRS                       10
  2. YSRCP                   13
  3. Rajinikanth         19
  4. BJD                       16
  5. Others                 2

So, it is wrong to assume that all the Non-NDA and Non-UPA parties are in the third front. You also should understand that there is a Fourth Front which is opposite to the third front and cannot align with the third front. So, if UPA aligns with third front, it won’t get the support of fourth front. For example, TRS cannot align with congress because it is directly fighting Congress in Telangana. Similarly, TDP cannot align with YSRCP because they are fighting each other in AP. That presents me with 5 takeaways from the predictions I made in last 4 weeks.

  1. BJP is all set(?) with the help of its allies to retain the power in 2019!

BJP is sitting on 240 seats and by adding the seats of its allies the tally goes to 289. Which means there are 49 seats which are coming from its allies. BJP last time had 282 seats and this time they are at 240 seats and that’s fall of 42 seats. The two parties with maximum support to BJP are Shiv Sena and JDU in Bihar. These are the two parties which may change their minds at the eleventh hour. Though it’s not alarming news for BJP its surely a call to do something big to come back to power on its own. Because we never know in politics who jumps the castle.

  1. Third Front is not as strong as we think because we have Fourth Front which got emerged from third front!

Not very long ago there were articles written and posted on the birth of ‘Third Front’ which as per a class of journalists would form the next Government of India. So to put this argument to an end, my predictions give Third Front just 90 seats. That’s not even 1/3rd. If we add congress seats to Third front the tally goes to 194. That is nothing close to majority. The Fourth Front is the actual new born baby because there was a cold war between parties of third front and that lead to unofficial withdrawal. That has brought fourth front into scene which may not support BJP directly but give outside support if needed. So 60 seats are huge number and let’s remember that a coalition made out of 10 parties can never rule country!

  1. BJP is losing seats in Northern India and Western India but it is picking up seats in Southern and Eastern India.

BJP overall has 240 seats which looks to be a good number, but when you look into the statistics you will know that BJP is losing in the strong holds like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Maharashtra. Each state there is fall of average 30% fall in the seats won compared to 2014. But the good news being the BJP’s has strengthened in Eastern India and Southern India. Though there is gain in south and east the gain is not good enough to beat the fall in west and north India.

  1. This is perfect battle because the BJP’s Loss is INC’s gain!

If we see BJP is losing 42 seats from its 2014 tally of 282 and INC is winning 34 seats more than what it won in 2014. It shows how nicely INC is able to hit the areas where BJP is losing. We can even conclude that these numbers were won by BJP in 2014 majorly because of Modi wave. The loss of 40 seats is not big in a General election but it’s the pick that matters. That’s where Congress is doing really well to pick up the seats which BJP is losing.

  1. Will BJP form the Govt or Will the Karnataka Scenario hit the Nation in the month of May 2019?

Yes, BJP has 240 seats and its alliance combined takes it to 289 which is 15 seats more than the Majority mark. But the big worries for BJP are coming from Nitish Kumar of JDU whose 19 seats could cost them the majority.  Shiv Sena which is somehow dissatisfied with BJP and if Shiv sena moves out then NDA seats will fall further to 254. That will also mean UPA+Third Front tally will go to 194+16+19=229.  If leaders like Mamta Banerjee, then somehow manage to get KCR and Naveen Patnaik on board to support from outside then that 229 gets another 26 seats which takes their total to 255.

So now we are at NDA 254 and UPA+ThirdFront+JDU+Shivsena+BJD+TRS at 255. The climax then shifts to Tamilnadu where Thalaiva Rajnikanth is expected to win 19 seats. Whoever gets those 19 will cross that magical figure of 272!!

Knowing Rajnikanth well, it’s not tough to say that he will throw his weight behind Modi than behind Congress or Kamal Hassan.

So, final conclusion is that as per the present situations if elections are conducted, it is clear that BJP will win the 2019 elections in any conditions until or unless there is drastic change in the political scenario! Hope you liked this five-part series of mid-year 2018 predictions!!!

General Elections-2019! Mid Year Predictions – South India Region #LokSabha2019

It’s Tuesday and it’s my post day. Very recently the NDA Government has completed its 4th year of ruling and they have just 1 more year left before the Lok Sabha elections 2019 take place. Many surveys and polls have been conducted on to see what can happen in 2019 and look at the party’s performance state wise. Last year around this time I had given the seats that can be won by parties as on that day. Starting from today, for the next one month I will predict the seats that BJP, INC and others will be winning in 2019 elections.

These predictions are not of any survey done by me nor a copy of any survey of any TV channel. This is based on the political situations that exist in those states as on today, the perceptions of people reflected trough various surveys and polls coupled with my analysis. I have divided this into 5 parts. The first 4 parts will focus on four regions of India and in the last part I will give an all India picture.

Today it is the turn of BJP’s less favored region of South India. South India is complicated with every state having its own dynamics and the party which is there in one state is not there in other state. Like TRS which is only there in Telangana, TDP and YSRCP in Andhra Pradesh etc. South India includes states like Telangana (17), Andhra Pradesh (25), Karnataka (28), Kerala (20) and Tamil Nadu (39). Union territories Lakshadweep and Pondicherry with 1 seat each. Total of 132 seats.

  1. Telangana is the first state am going to predict. It has 17 seats in total and TRS, Congress, BJP, AIMIM and TDP are the parties contending. I give 10 seats to TRS mostly from North Telangana districts, 4 seats for BJP, coming from the City and other Urban places. Congress will have to limit itself with 2 seats from South Telangana.
  2. Andhra Pradesh another Telugu State which had seen a more than half seats going to coalition of BJP and TDP in 2014. Now with TDP and BJP becoming deadly enemies on the issue of special status, expect a tactical understanding of BJP with YSRCP to teach TDP a lesson. This understanding will exist more on ground and will not reflect as an alliance. This will majorly benefit BJP as YSRCP looks much stronger to capture power in AP. I give 13 out of 25 seats to YSRCP, coming from Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra equally and 4 seats for BJP coming from places like Vizag, Rajahmundry and probably Rajampet. TDP which won 15 seats last time will be reduced to 8.
  1. Karnataka, state which had elections just few days ago has seen a roller coaster of elections. JDS and Congress now with the coalition have confirmed that they will be participating as one in the Lok Sabha Elections. Will that hit them back or help them is something to be seen. As per my fundamental study I feel that it is going to be a little boost to BJP. Expecting a two seat jump to 19 from 17.  Major gains for BJP will come from Mumbai Karnataka where it will win 5 out of 6 seats, Coastal Karnataka where it will sweep all the 3 seats and Central Karnataka where it will win 5 out of 9 seats and also will win few seats in Hyderabad Karnataka and in Bangalore City and Mysore. Cong-JDS combine will be reduced to just 9 seats.
  2. Kerala is the only place in South India where BJP had no seats for many years. But that changed in the assembly elections of 2016 where it won its first seat and got more than 13% vote share and it is expected to do well in the 2019 elections. This is going to be a big plus for BJP if they manage to get the seats I am predicting. I am seeing victory in 5 seats for BJP compared to nothing in 2014. To add a point, in the year 2014 BJP had 10% vote share which jumped to 13% in 2016. So, at the same pace if the vote share goes to 17-18% then they will be able to win 5 seats. These seats will come from North Kerala region of Kasargod, probably in Thrissur and Thiruvananthapuram in South Kerala.
  1. Tamil Nadu – the state of confusion. We now have five big parties fighting out in this state. AIADMK, DMK, AIADMK, Rajnikanth’s new party, MNM of Kamal Hassan and the NDA which has parties like DK, DMDK, PMK and BJP. AIADMK with the amount of anti-incumbency is ruled out to win even one seat of the 39 seats. Last time Jayalalitha’s brand had given them 37 seats but now it’s really tough for them. Plus people voted for her as she put herself for the PM position in case if there is a hung parliament. It is going to be new players who will win it big this time. BJP will also make its inroads and win few major seats. Rajinikanth and Kamal Haasan are going to win it big this time. Rajinikanth with all his rural power will take highest number of seats, especially in South Tamilnadu. Rajnikanth will win 19 out of 40 seats mostly in Southern and Rural Tamilnadu, Kamal Hassan’s MNM will win 6 seats from Urban TN, BJP combine will win 7 seats mostly in western TN and Kanyakumari district. DMK is expected to get 7 seats mostly in Chennai city and North Tamilnadu.

Of the three union territories of Andamans, Pondicherry and Lakshadweep BJP will take Andamans and INC will take Pondicherry and Lakshadweep. So, here is the South India tally for this week.

Party 2019
BJP 40
INC 22
Others 70
Total 132

 

Overall, if we see the tally goes to 132 seats. Out of which BJP is looking set to win 40 seats as compared to 22 seats that they have won in the year 2014. With the support of TDP they had 37. This time even without the support of TDP they are looking to make big gain of 18 seats.

That’s how the overall tally looks with BJP at 40, INC at 22 and others at 70. South India which isn’t favorite region for BJP has made good ground to gain the seats. It all depends on how the parities strategize and win more seats. Other parties will have huge role to play in the South Indian region.

In my next Tuesday post, I will focus on the Eastern states of Orissa, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, West Bengal and North Eastern states. Wait for it!!