Expiry day arrives and it comes on the back of 150 point rally, and I was always talking about it in my posts for the last 2 days. Market sensed the mood of the nation in favour of BJP and that gave it a big push. The resistance level of 11700-11720 is broken and now 11700-11850 territory is open for Nifty now. The US markets last night was flat to negative with Dow closing 20 points down and the Asian markets today looks mixed. The first quarter GDP of South Korea comes at just 1.8% which is much lower than expected and that has influenced other markets and except Hong Kong, all the other Asian markets are down. Brent Crude is still stuck at 74 dollar mark and trading at 74.4 dollars.
Coming to the domestics, the heat of election campaign is picking up as the campaigning for the 71 seats of 4th phase reaches the peak and the nominations for the last phase going on. Modi will hold a huge road show in Varanasi today and he will be filing his nomination from there tomorrow in the presence of many NDA leaders. On the Q4 front, the mixed trend of results continues with India bulls housing finance, Bharti Infratel coming up with weak results while the star performer was Ultra tech cement which came up with fantastic numbers and M&M financials also reporting good numbers. Today Biocon, Maruti Suzuki, Rallis India and Tata steel are going to come up with their Q4 results and we need to watch them carefully.
On the derivatives front, expiry day is here and the rollovers to May are very high now and come at 58% with a day still left for expiry. Yesterday there was a monster rally which took the Nifty to 11750 levels and that created a lot of demand for puts again and the Nifty put call ratio rose to 1.65 from 1.30 levels seen at the beginning of the day. Yesterday the turn over was at 14.2 lakh crore which means that there is every chance of 22.03 lakh crore record will be broken today and we will have to see whether it happens or not. Yesterday 11700 put added 11.6 lakh positions and 11650 put added 8.3 lakh positions and 11600 put added 6.7 lakh positions. 11600 put now has the highest open interest and 11700 is not far behind. On the call side, 11800 has the highest open interest which means 11780-11800 could be a resistance.
What is the Nifty call for the day?
Yesterday all your targets would have met and you would have closed all your positions, except the one you have taken with 12000 as the target and today is the time to enjoy the profits. Today we will have a flat opening around 11720-11750 levels and that might be a small resistance and 11780-11800 is a substantial resistance on the upside. On the downside, support might come at 11680-11700 levels and today expiry might happen between 11700-11800 level and if we break 11680 then we might test 11650 levels. So, there is no need to take any risk today and you can relax and observe the expiry moves. If you get a dip below 11680 and if Nifty holds 11650 then you can think of going long there with 11720-11750 as the target.