Tag Archives: India

Market Trade Setup 25th April #NIFTY

Expiry day arrives and it comes on the back of 150 point rally, and I was always talking about it in my posts for the last 2 days. Market sensed the mood of the nation in favour of BJP and that gave it a big push. The resistance level of 11700-11720 is broken and now 11700-11850 territory is open for Nifty now. The US markets last night was flat to negative with Dow closing 20 points down and the Asian markets today looks mixed. The first quarter GDP of South Korea comes at just 1.8% which is much lower than expected and that has influenced other markets and except Hong Kong, all the other Asian markets are down. Brent Crude is still stuck at 74 dollar mark and trading at 74.4 dollars.

Coming to the domestics, the heat of election campaign is picking up as the campaigning for the 71 seats of 4th phase reaches the peak and the nominations for the last phase going on. Modi will hold a huge road show in Varanasi today and he will be filing his nomination from there tomorrow in the presence of many NDA leaders. On the Q4 front, the mixed trend of results continues with India bulls housing finance, Bharti Infratel coming up with weak results while the star performer was Ultra tech cement which came up with fantastic numbers and M&M financials also reporting good numbers. Today Biocon, Maruti Suzuki, Rallis India and Tata steel are going to come up with their Q4 results and we need to watch them carefully.

On the derivatives front, expiry day is here and the rollovers to May are very high now and come at 58% with a day still left for expiry. Yesterday there was a monster rally which took the Nifty to 11750 levels and that created a lot of demand for puts again and the Nifty put call ratio rose to 1.65 from 1.30 levels seen at the beginning of the day. Yesterday the turn over was at 14.2 lakh crore which means that there is every chance of 22.03 lakh crore record will be broken today and we will have to see whether it happens or not. Yesterday 11700 put added 11.6 lakh positions and 11650 put added 8.3 lakh positions and 11600 put added 6.7 lakh positions. 11600 put now has the highest open interest and 11700 is not far behind. On the call side, 11800 has the highest open interest which means 11780-11800 could be a resistance.

What is the Nifty call for the day?

Yesterday all your targets would have met and you would have closed all your positions, except the one you have taken with 12000 as the target and today is the time to enjoy the profits. Today we will have a flat opening around 11720-11750 levels and that might be a small resistance and 11780-11800 is a substantial resistance on the upside. On the downside, support might come at 11680-11700 levels and today expiry might happen between 11700-11800 level and if we break 11680 then we might test 11650 levels. So, there is no need to take any risk today and you can relax and observe the expiry moves. If you get a dip below 11680 and if Nifty holds 11650 then you can think of going long there with 11720-11750 as the target. 

Bhagavadgita Chapter 18 Moksha Sannyas Yoga Verse 52

Viviktasevee laghwaashee yatavaakkaayamaanasah; Dhyaanayogaparo nityam vairaagyam samupaashritah.

Dwelling in solitude, eating but little, with speech, body and mind subdued, always engaged in concentration and meditation, taking refuge in dispassion;
Interpretation
Lord Krishna in this 2nd part of the three part shloka talks about some more qualities that a person exhibits after attaining perfection. He says that the an important quality of the person is he likes to live in solitude, which means avoiding people and places where people gather. He also eats very little compared to others of his age group. The person also keeps his body, mind and speech subdued, which means he talks less. The next quality that Lord describes here is that his is engaged in a continuous meditation and concentration by being totally dispassionate and unattached to any work he does.
Extending Interpretation to Mankind’s Life!
There are people who like crowds and there are people who live in solitude. We are not talking about introverts and extroverts here. An introvert always likes solitude and he doesnt feel comfortable in the company of many people and it is a part of a person’s personality. Am not talking about an introvert here. Am talking about an extrovert who likes to talk and communicate with people, experiencing a transformation and preferring solitude. As the knowledge and perfection in a person goes up he start to avoid people as much as he can and prefer to be in solitude. The main reason for this is, when you are alone then you can communicate much better with yourself than being in the company of others. 
It doesn’t mean that introverts communicate with themselves and are one step away from attaining Brahman. It is just that they communicate less than the average person and extroverts communicate more than the average person. But a spiritual person, starts talking to himself, and when he does that he stops communicating with the other people. When you want to meditate and concentrate you have to talk less and when you are in the state of stillness and inactivity you tend to eat less and less passionate about the things around you. This is how Lord explain the second set of characteristics of a person who is going to the state of Brahman. 

Market Trade Setup 23rd April #NIFTY

Crucial day of the entire April-May election months with 117 seats of 543 seats going for polls today. This is the phase where the largest number of seats are going for polls and with this 303 out of 543 seats would have completed and more or less we will get an idea which way the wind is blowing. So, tomorrow will be a very crucial day for the market and the behaviour of the market tomorrow will more or less tell you who is winning and who is not. But for today the global cues are mostly centred around Brent Crude which went to 6 month high of 74.5 dollars and on its way towards 75 dollars. Added to that Asian markets are subdued and Dow closed in a slightly negative territory losing 50 points.

Coming to domestics, today is the polling day and as told above 117 seats are going for polls and BJP holds 62 of them. From now on, it’s going to be more and more of BJP seats as we are moving towards North India. South will end polling with today, as 1 seat from Tamil nadu, 20 seats from Kerala and 14 seats from Karnataka are going for polls. Apart from that the entire state of Gujarat where BJP holds 26/26 seats is going for polls along with the remaining 7 seats in Chattisgarh. Goa’s two seats are also going for polls today. There are 1612 candidates from 15 states and Union Territories are going for polls. Evening there will be a post from me which will talk more about the 3rd phase. Q4 results are also going to pick up from today as cement major ACC cement along with Tata Global and Sterlite tech are coming up with Q4 results.

On the derivatives front, yesterday was a very low volume day as the participation from the FIIs was minimal due to Easter Monday. The fall coming from a low volume is not a very significant indicator and the Nifty put call ratio fell to 1.35 from 1.71. The volatility also jumped to 24% which is highest in many months. 11700 put shed 8.4 lakh positions, and 11800 put shed 8.8 lakh positions and the only strike which added open interest is 11550 put added 3.5 lakh positions. On the call side 11700 call added 29 lakh positions and 12000 call added 9.8 lakh positions. 11700 call and 12000 call almost have similar open interest of 41.5 lakh and 41.4 lakh respectively, which means either 11720 can be the top for this series or it can go all the way to 12000. With 24% volatility, nothing can be ruled out.

What is the Nifty call for the day?

Yesterday we saw a sudden fall in the afternoon to 11550 levels before recovering and closing just below 11600 mark. I had warned you not to go long if Nifty drops below 11670 mark before 10.30 and at 10 AM itself Nifty touched 11650 mark and I hope you have stayed away from the market. Today is the day where you will go long if you believe that BJP is winning this election. From today we can see a turnaround for next 2-3 days that might take Nifty past 11900 and might even go to 12000 mark. We can start seeing it somewhere today afternoon itself and tomorrow we could see that playing out in full swing. For today, we might open flat around 11600-11630 mark and you can go long here and keep a target of 50 points from wherever you were able to go long. 11700-11720 is a big resistance that it has to overcome, and if that happens then Nifty is on its way towards 12000. All my predictions are based on BJP winning and if the news goes the other way then sees a big collapse towards 11500. 

Market Trade Setup 22nd April #Nifty

Last week of April and the expiry week is here. This week has some very important cues, one being the election and the noise of Rahul’s nomination, sexual harassment charges on CJI and its impact on the key judgments waiting to be delivered and the continuing Q4 results that will impact the companies. On Thursday, US markets closed in the positive territory up 110 points but that is very old news. Yesterday’s terror attacks in Sri Lanka where 200 people lost their lives has a major impact on the growth and stability across the World. Added to that are the worries of rising crude prices for India. Crude oil has crossed 73 dollars and its trading at 73.5 dollars now. Asia today is flat with some markets in a mild positive zone and some in a mild negative.
On the domestic front, the focus today will be the Q4 results of Reliance and HDFC that came on Friday evening and Saturday respectively. After many quarters Reliance has disappointed in its petrochemical business with margins disappointing and even Reliance Jio which was having a dream run till last quarter has seen a fall in growth in the number of subscribers, revenue as well as Average revenue per user. So, overall disappointment from Reliance. That disappointment was made up by HDFC which came up with very good numbers. Added to this we have plenty of news from Amethi, where scrutiny of nominations will take place today and the final decision on the AAP-Congress alliance in Delhi and Haryana will be taken today. Tomorrow is the 3rd phase polls as well as the last day for filing nominations for 6th phase, which includes Delhi.
On the derivatives front, we had the 3rd weekly expiry of the April month and it happened on a good volume and turnover of 21.63 lakh crore and that’s heartening. Now, the focus shifts to the April monthly series expiry which will happen this Thursday. Last Thursday we saw a heavy buying in Nifty futures which indicates that there could be some more upside that market saw on the day when 2nd phase polling was happening. We will have to see its impact going into this monthly expiry. The Nifty put-call ratio, however, came down from 1.82 levels to 1.71. 11400 put added 5.1 lakh positions, 11650 call added 2.3 lakh positions and 11600 call added 1.9 lakh positions and 11500 put still has highest open interest of 28.4 lakh positions. On the call side 11800 call added 6.9 lakh positions, 12000 call added 6.8 lakh positions and 11900 call added 5.2 lakh positions. 12000 call still has the highest open interest.
What is the Nifty call for the day?
After 3 day holiday, we are opening today and the opening might be a bit flat around 11730-11760 zone and 11720 is a support that will come. The 11670-11700 is a big support zone and should hold today. Also, a lot of open interest has come on Thursday for 12000 call and we need to see if it continues. If it does, then we can look at 11850 which is all time high being tested and even broken this week. That might take us to 12000 levels also. A lot, however, depends on the election related fundamentals and we need to look at them carefully. So, for today, I would suggest that if you get a dip around 11720 levels or below that, then go for a long position. If Nifty drops below 11670 mark before 10.30am today, then don’t take any positions. Any dip from 11670-11720 levels would be an opportunity to enter again with 11800 as the target. If you have previous positions then keep 11800 as a target to exit them.

Orissa and Gujarat – Far from each other but not very different politically. #LokSabha2019 #IndiaVotes

Today we shall look at the history and the two states which are on the two corners of India. One on the east is the Odisha and one on the west is Gujarat. There are quite a few similarities between these two states yet the parties in power in both the states are different.

Let’s look at some interesting facts:

Starting with Gujarat. It was in the year 1995 that first-time BJP came to power and is still in power even after 24 years. There has been no anti-Incumbency against BJP. Gujarat in these 24 years has made development do the talking. There has been high urbanization of the state, no backwardness, no heavy dependency on the Agriculture. Gujarat is known for one of the top states into industrial space and also the services sector. Gujarat has become the centre for sectors like Pharma, Textile, Diamond, Petro-chemical sectors and of course Stock markets.

Now coming to Orissa, it was in the year 1999 that BJD party was given power by the people of Orissa. And the same party is ruling Orissa for 20 years and is fighting for 5th term along with Lok Sabha Elections 2019. There has been no anti-Incumbency here too. But then the drawbacks here are that Orissa is still backward and has a high tribal population in poverty. High poverty and lowest urbanization are seen everywhere except Bhubaneshwar and Cuttack.

With these many differences how is that both the parties are enjoying victories for so many years? Simply Development! Gujarat Govt BJP has been giving all the possible facilities to the traders to improve their trade and commerce. Traders thus have been backing Gujarat for many years. Recently, in the 2017 assembly elections Saurashtra which is agriculture driven area went to Congress but then areas like Kutch, Surat, Baroda, Ahmedabad have voted for BJP and saved them. This was right after the GST and Demonetisation.

On the other side, Orissa’s Biju Janata Dal Govt is known for constantly focussing on uplifting the women and the tribals. The Self-help group started by BJD has really helped the people of Orissa. Naveen Patnaik’s policy of leaving the tribes on their own with full autonomy helped them to get the tribal vote.

Both the states have been a leader-centric and backed their respective leaders, Narendra Modi since 2001 in Gujarat and Naveen Patnaik since 1999 in Orissa.

All about Lok Sabha 2019 – Naveen Patnaik had come to elections in 1999, with an alliance with Atal ji’s BJP. Of the 21 seats then BJD+BJP won 19/21 and Congress won just 2. The same alliance in 2004 won 18 seats, BJD 11, BJP 7, INC 2 and JMM 1. Once Atal Ji retired, Naveen Patnaik separated with BJP and in 2009 Naveen Patnaik fought all alone, where he won 14, CPM 1, Congress 6 and BJP nil. With BJP losing grip in Orissa, Modi and Shah in 2013 decided to build BJP in Orissa by going independently. In 2014 within 6 months of time, BJP won 1 seat while BJD won 20. Though this was a bad loss, this wiped out Congress and opened doors for BJP. Recently held Panchayat elections BJP was the party with the highest number of seats.

Odisha elections are happening in 4 phases: 
• 1st phase 4 seats
• 2nd phase 5 seats
• 3rd phase 6 seats
• 4th phase 6 seats

In 2019 elections, according to the projections from opinion polls, BJP might win 11-13, BJD 8-10 and nothing for Congress. Naveen Patnaik is turning old and losing the charm and there are no leaders who can take forward the legacy. This is advantage BJP. And Sooner or later Orissa will be ruled by Right Wing party for the first time in its history.

Coming to Gujarat, all the 26 seats of Gujarat are voting in the 3rd phase on 23rd of April. The previous election in 2014 was a big victory as BJP swept to win 26/26. This time, BJP is expected to easily win the 16 seats in Gujarat region comprehensively while Saurashtra and Kutch might offer some resistance. Still, BJP is expected to sweep Gujarat winning 22-24 seats, leaving just 2-4 for Congress. Modi’s personal popularity and his Gujarati tag will help him there.

Overall for 47 seats of Gujarat and Orissa – BJP is expected to win 33-37 seats, UPA 2-4 seats and BJD 8-10 seats.

2nd phase of Lok Sabha Elections 2019 #IndiaVotes #LokSabha2019

1st phase of Lok Sabha elections 2019 got successfully completed on 11th of April with the voter turnout reading at 69.4%. This 69.4% is notch higher than the overall 2014 elections turnout of 66.40%. We are 2 days away from the 2nd phase and the last 5 days after the 1st phase got over, things have gone wild for both the parties. Election Commission banned Modi biopic right before 1st phase and now EC has banned several leaders from campaigning for their communal or unethical usage of words. Yogi Adityanath for 72 hours, Mayawati for 48 hours, Azam Khan for 72 hours and Maneka Gandhi for 48 hours. These are some big events in the last 5 days.

18th is the day of Second Phase and this time there are 96 seats which will go for polling on Thursday. Vellore seat polling has been cancelled after huge amounts of cash were seized in the house of a DMK leader. Like last Tuesday, First, let’s look at the top 10 constituencies of the Phase 2 elections.

1. Thoothukudi: Tamil Nadu is all about DMK and AIADMK. With sympathy running high it’s expected that DMK will win or rather sweep entire Tamil Nadu. But last few days things are getting better for AIADMK-BJP combine. Tuthukudi is the place where state BJP president Dr Tamilisai Soundarrajan is taking on Kanimozhi, the favourite daughter of Late Karunanidhi. With sympathy factor intact, things look a bit tough for Tamilisai.

2. Chennai Central: Sam Paul is contesting from PMK which is another ally of BJP. But then this is not going to make any difference as it seems, Dayanidhi Maran from DMK, two time MP and brother of Kalanidhi Maran is expected to win this seat back.

3. Nilgiris: We have the 2G scam acquitted A Raja from DMK fighting against Thyagarajan from AIADMK. This seat is more important for the people and it’s for them to decide either to vote a corrupt leader or someone else.

4. Siva Ganga: Another blockbuster place. After Chidambaram, we have seen that his son Karthi being pushed into politics. Yet another dynasty mode of politics starting in Tamil Nadu. Will Karthi win his father’s seat or are the corruption charges on the family will prove costly for them? This time BJP candidate H Raja is taking Karthi Chidambaram at Shiva Ganga.

5. Bangalore North: This is the seat of former CM and Union minister DV Sadananda Gowda. This looks more or less like a victory for BJP until or unless any miracles save Congress;

6. Mandya: Interesting story coming from this constituency. Nikhil Kumaraswamy the son of HD Kumara Swamy and the Grandson to Deva Gowda is fighting against the actor Ambareesh wife Sumalatha. Sumalatha is going Independent but is being supported by BJP. The Story is, though JDS and Congress are fighting together, there is a section of Congress leaders from Mandya who are secretly supporting Sumalatha. So, will Sumalatha stage an upset and win Mandya or will Nikhil trump her to retain this traditional JDS seat?

7. Chikballapur: This could be one of the easiest win for INC in South India. Bacchegowda is contesting from BJP but then his opponent is Veerappa Moily from Congress. Veerappa Moily has been a Minister of Petroleum, Corporate affairs, Power in UPA and has been a powerful leader from this region. With JDS also supporting him, the caste equations indicate a clear victory for Moiley.

8. Mathura: Going back to North India. We have Hema Malini contesting from BJP and Mahesh Pathak from Congress. Hema Malini as we know is the famous actress and for the first time, Dharmender campaigned for the Party and his Wife. Hema Malini has already won LS Seat before and will be looking to continue the same this elections.

9. Fatehpur Sikri: This is going to be the close contest between two leaders from BJP and INC. BJP has fielded Sadvi Niranjan Jyothi who is known for her controversial remarks on the opposition. On the other side we have Raj Babbar the actor from Congress. Close contest.

10. Srinagar: This is a going to be an easy win for NC Congress. Farooq Abdullah is the famous J&K leader and no doubt he would win this Seat and we will all see 80 plus Abdulla triumph again from Srinagar.

Coming now a little bit to the statistics, the second phase elections will cover 12 states and the union territory of Pondicherry. Tamil Nadu is the only state where all constituencies are going for polls while in other 11 states it going to be just another phase of the election.

There are totally 1590 candidates in the fray and let’s look at the 2014 results.

List of winners for this 96 in last elections: 
• Tamil Nadu (38) NDA 2 UPA 0 Others 36
• Pondicherry (1) NDA 1 UPA 0 Others 0
• Karnataka (14) NDA 6 UPA 8 Others 0
• Orissa (5) NDA 0 UPA 0 Others 5
• Chattisgarh (3) NDA 3 UPA 0 Others 0
• Maharashtra (10) NDA 8 UPA 2 Others 0
• North East (7) NDA 4 UPA 2 Others 1
• West Bengal (3) NDA 1 UPA 0 Others 2
• Bihar (5) NDA 1 UPA 4 Others 0
• Uttar Pradesh (8) NDA 8 UPA 0 Others 0
• Jammu Kashmir (2) NDA 1 UPA 0 Others 1

So out of the total seats 96,
• NDA won 38
• UPA won 12
• Others won 46

Before ending the post today thought the number of seats that BJP holds look smaller in size one needs to go little deep. Of the 38 seats by NDA, only 27 are held by BJP which means 11 are coming from allies. So diving into the data, we must understand that in the last elections BJP went with only 1 ally (PMK) in Tamil Nadu and won 2 seats. One each shared. This way if we see, BJP has got an alliance with AIADMK now and this is going to be crucial. The mood of Tamil Nadu is quickly changing and the possibility of winning 8-10 seats is very much there for NDA.

The same way BJP is making inroads in Bihar, Bengal and Odisha where BJP tally will improve from 2014. If the results from these three states come good and in the other states if NDA holds on then we can see that NDA may win in the range of 40-45 seats. Not much time left, let’s wait and watch how the 2day of polling goes.

Bhagavadgita Chapter 18 Moksha Sannyas Yoga Verse 44

Krishigaurakshyavaanijyam vaishyakarma swabhaavajam; Paricharyaatmakam karma shoodrasyaapi swabhaavajam.

Agriculture, cattle-rearing and trade are the duties of the Vaishya (merchant class), born of their own nature; and action consisting of service is the duty of the Sudra or servant class, born of their own nature.

Interpretation

After talking about the Brahmans and Kshatriyas who are possessed by Sattwik and Rajasic guna completely, this shloka is talking about the duties of Vaishyas and of shudras. First talking about Vaishyas, Lord says that the duties of vaishyas include agriculture and cattle rearing apart from trade. Vaishyas are engaged in the activities related to trade and both agriculture and dairy industry is in a way linked to trade. Then coming to shudras Lord says that those activities which are of a servant class, servant class here means activities which are aimed at only serving the society. Thus people who are born out of this nature are shudras.

Extending Interpretation to Mankind’s Life!

If Brahmanas are Sattwik and Kshatriyas are Rajasic, then what are Vaishyas and shudras and what is the difference between the Vaishyas and Shudras? Lord gives a clear cut differentiation which is Vaishyas have a mix of Rajasic and Tamasic nature while Shudras are complete of Tamasic nature. When an individual has a mix of both Rajasic and Tamasic qualities, he would want to work hard, lead and get into a powerful position, but because of the Tamasic nature in him, he also wants enjoyment and fulfilment of desires. That’s how he gets into trading activity, where he works very hard in his business to earn money and then he enjoys the same wealth. Enjoyment here is with alcohol, women and other materialistic pleasures.

When we look at Shudras, they have very little or no Rajasic qualities in them and they are completely dominated by Tamasic gunas which is enjoyment and ignorance. So, they do not work hard to acquire the knowledge or skill that is needed to become a sattwik or a rajasic person. That leaves him with jobs which are menial and that serve people of higher gunas. He makes pots and sells it to people, he weaves clothes and sells them to the people around. He can be a barber, he can be a tailor who stitches clothes. These are not businesses but only the sources of livelihood. People who work as clerks and other lower level cadre jobs also come under this category. This is primarily due to the absence of Rajasic qualities in them.

Market Trade Setup 15th April #Nifty

The shortest trading week of the year so far is here. This is a 3 day trading week with market shut on Wednesday due to Mahavir Jayanthi and on Friday due to Good Friday. In-between you have a weekly expiry on Thursday. So, today and tomorrow are the only normal trading days. The most important news that we would be looking at today is the IMD forecast for this year’s monsoon that will come around 3 PM. Skymet has given a disappointing figure now we will look at IMD to see what it says. If we look at the global markets, they are all celebrating due to strong macro data coming from China, especially the exports going up by 14% and imports coming down. Shanghai market up close to 2% and all the other markets like Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong and Japan all in deep green with Japan and Hong Kong both 300 points in green. US markets also added fuel on Friday with Dow closing close to 270 points up.
Coming to domestics, if the data took China and other Asian markets up, it is the same data that will put pressure on us and we are likely to start flat. The IIP data for February came after markets closed at 5.30pm and it was a big disappointment. IIP grew at just 0.1% vs 1.7% seen in January and this is the lowest in the last 20 months. Manufacturing has actually contracted by growing at -0.3% and thus the demand for electricity came down and it just saw a growth of 1.2%. Electricity usually grows more than 4-5% during the beginning of the summer months. The only saving grace was inflation data for March that came at 2.8% vs expected 3% and the food inflation finally came to positive at 0.3%. The best data is from services inflation which was down to 5% from 5.3% seen in February. On the Q4 results front, while TCS has met the target Infosys has disappointed with margins coming lower and growth guidance also is lower. So, we still have mixed Q4 results.
Coming to derivatives, there was some buying that happened on Friday as Nifty started to pick up in the afternoon due to weekly short covering. The overall long positions in Nifty futures now stand at 63%. Coming to the options market, there was demand for puts and that is visible in Nifty put-call ratio going up to 1.57 from 1.49 at the beginning of the day. 11600 put added maximum open interest of 8.1 lakh and 11500 put added 4.3 lakh positions and 11550 put 3.6 lakh positions. 11600 put still continues to have the highest open interest indicating that 11570 is a support level. On the call side, 11750 call added 2.6 lakh positions and 11800 call added 2.3 lakh positions while 12000 call added 1.9 lakh positions. 11700 call continues to have the highest open interest and a distant second is 12000 call. So, 11740 zones will be a strong resistance for this week’s expiry. But on the April monthly expiry, still 11500 put and 12000 call continues to have the highest open interest indicating that 12000 is possible this series. But 11800 is fast catching up, so it can act as a hurdle on the upside.
What is the Nifty call for the day?
A weak macro data and a disappointing Infosys data means we will start flat in the 11640-11660 levels and on the downside 11570-11580 might offer strong support and if the fall doesn’t happen then 11680-11700 might act as the first resistance. On Friday, we have taken the 11680 as a target and those targets were reached, and you would have exited your positions. Today is a day of uncertainty, so I would suggest not to take any positions today. But if there is a correction to 11570-11580 levels and Nifty stabilizes there then you can go long with 11650 as the target. Else, it’s better to wait and watch if 11680-11720 zone is taken out or not before deciding on further action.

Market Trade Setup 10th April #NIFTY

Finally, there was a rally in the last hour yesterday much to the relief of many, who were doubting whether Nifty would cross 11600 or would settle down below that but somehow we managed to cross 11600 and went up all the way to 11685 levels and closed almost at the high point of the day at 11671. Globally, however, things are not looking that great. US markets corrected close to 200 points and this is on the worry that came from IMF which has cut the global growth forecast and that seems to be having a major impact across all markets. Added to this is the Trump tweet which talked about imposing trade sanctions, this time on European Union. Asia is also negative today mainly on the IMF growth cut with both Hong Kong and Japan showing 150 points cut each.

On the domestic front, the campaigning for the first phase of elections finally came to an end and a positive close was mainly due to the positive outlook given for NDA that it might come back to power. India Today was the last channel to come up with the forecast and they gave a figure of 263-283 seats for NDA and surprisingly in UP BJP might get 42 seats which was much better than 20 plus seats forecasted 2 months ago. BJP is also doing well in Maharashtra with 40 seats almost the same as what they got last time. The other news today is going to be the IIP and the CPI data that will be released for the month of Feb and March. CPI for March is expected to be around 3% and if it comes in that range it will be a good trigger to look at another rate cut in the June policy of RBI.

On the derivatives front, there has been some selling in the Futures market in the last 2 days which has brought the Nifty futures long positions to 67% from the highs of 71%. This is in a way good as now there are 1/3rd shorts in the system. The options also has seen some trimming of Put call ratio and the Nifty put-call ratio right now stands at 1.42 which is a good level considering that tomorrow is the weekly expiry. Yesterday 11600 put added 5.3 lakh positions and that established 11600 put at the highest open interest which means we have firm support at 11590 levels. On the call side, 11850 call added 6.4 lakh positions and 11800 call has the maximum open interest followed by 11850 call. So, Nifty now has the legs to go up to 11800 by tomorrow. The range is now 11600-11800 mark.

What is the Nifty call for the day?

The positions that you were holding for last 2-3 days finally would have got closed yesterday as Nifty went all the way crossing 11680 mark and that you would have made a 20-80 point profits depending on where you have taken positions. But what is important is that a futures trade is closed, which is very important for small traders. Today the IMF news will give a dip at the opening and Nifty might open around 11620-11650 mark and that also is the support zone. Any correction will bring it to 11590 and Nifty should find a support there. So, it is better to go long at around 11600-11630 mark with 11680-11700 as the target. You can otherwise keep a 50-70 point profit target which can be anytime this week