Tag Archives: India

Market Trade Setup 8th October #NIFTY

Market Trade Setup 8th October

Start of the 2nd week starts and we are yet to recover from shocks of the first week. Nifty has seen the biggest fall in 9 years see at 6.1% and we have seen 700 points getting wiped out in a week’s time. If you see this week, globally things are looking mixed. The US is growing big time, strengthening the dollar and that is making all the other currencies weaker. The jobs data that came on Friday in the US shows that the unemployment rate in the US is at the lowest level in the last 49 years. China, the second largest economy in the World is going through some problems and the Central bank of China has decreased the CRR there to increase the liquidity in the economy, thus increasing the demand for loans. China is down by 1%, Hong Kong is down by 400 points and India will have some pressure of all this at the opening. 

Domestics and Derivatives! 

Coming to the domestics, the biggest jolt was given to us by RBI in our monetary policy on Friday, where the rates have been kept unchanged. The reason given was why should rates go up when inflation is not going up? This is a valid reason but a depreciating rupee needed higher interest rates to stabilize and since RBI did not hike rates to save rupee there was a massive sell-off in Nifty, which fell close to 290 points. For today, the biggest relief is from the Crude which fell from 86 dollars to 83.2 dollars and that might come as a huge relief. Apart from that the Q2 results season starts this week and Zee Entertainment will be the first company to declare results on Wednesday. 

On the derivatives front, there was a massive selling seen on Friday where 30 short positions were taken on Nifty futures for every long position. That has brought down the overall long positions in Futures market to 36% from 46% seen at the beginning of the series. On the options front, there was a lot of action on the call front and 7 calls were shorted for every 2 short puts and that brought the Nifty put-call ratio down to just 1.07 from 1.21 seen at the beginning of the day on Friday. 10200 put added 4.5 lakh positions while 10700 put shed 6.8 lakh contracts and 10500 put shed 8.3 lakh contracts, On the call side 10500 call added 16.7 lakh contracts, 10700 call added 11.2 lakh contracts and 10800 call added 14.5 lakh contracts. 11000 on the call side and 10500 on put side continue to have the maximum accumulated open interests. 

What is the Nifty call for the day?

After 700 point fall in 4 days, what can we expect? Nifty will open slightly gap down today around 10280-10300 level and immediate support will come at 10260 and what happens from there needs to be seen. 10380-10420 is a resistance zone and will Nifty overcome that or not needs to be seen. Today for me is a wait and watch day. After such big falls, its not safe to jump into trades now. Already you have a position and keep it intact and let’s observe the markets today to decide on the further course of action.

Bhagavadgita Chapter 12 Bhakti Yoga Verse 7

Chapter 12 Bhakti Yoga Verse 7

Teshaamaham samuddhartaa mrityusamsaarasaagaraat;
Bhavaami nachiraat paartha mayyaaveshitachetasaam.

To those whose minds are set on Me, O Arjuna, verily 
I become ere long the saviour out of the ocean of the mortal Samsara!

Interpretation

Continuing from the previous shloka where He says those who worship Him by renouncing all actions in Him, regarding Him as supreme goal and meditating on Him, Lord Krishna continues to tell in this shloka what happens to such a person. He says that a person who does all the above and sets his mind only on the Lord, then the Lord comes in the ere. The meaning of ere here means before in time or earlier than. It means that the Lord will come before time, for those who worship Him and save them from the mortal samsara of the birth and death. 

Extending Interpretation to Mankind’s Life!

“Ocean of mortal samsara” is something we need to look at and understand here. Many of us relate “Samsara” to Samsaram or family life. If you look at the Sanskrit meaning of Samsara, it means “Wandering” or sometimes “aimless wandering”. Philosophers have also equated samsara to “cycle of aimless drifting” or “mundane existence”. What does all this means? Let’s try to understand why Samsara is equated to samsaram or family life. There are two cycles of life that go parallelly to an individual, cycle or mortality and cycle of immortality.
Cycle of mortality is also called as mundane living, as we follow the mortal as the aim of life. Within us, body is mortal and soul is immortal. So, if you follow the mortal or body, it will pull you to everything that is linked to the pleasure of the body or senses.

That includes power, money, comforts, marriage, sex, children, affections, love, attachments etc etc and the list is endless. All this will give you immense pleasure and you will feel scared to lose them. So, you indulge in all sorts of things to protect them and to hold on to them. Like if some swami tells a rich businessman that he would face losses in business, that business man will do everything mortal like visiting temples, offering gifts to God, constructing temples etc to save his business from getting into losses. He will not do anything immortal or something touching his soul to introspect.
This is nothing but “Samsara” or mortal living. Each one of us are so bothered that our actions are directed at protecting their happiness and things related to senses. What about soul here? Are we bringing soul anywhere into the picture? If the purpose of the body is to educate the soul and if a person is engaged in satisfying the needs of the body, then what happens to the soul? The soul will be a silent witness to the waste of time that the body is doing  and keeps taking different bodies till the time a person realises the importance of soul needs over the bodily needs.

Coming to the soul needs, it doesnt need anything except knowledge. Knowledge is the path for salvation and soul’s journey is only towards acquiring that knowledge. If this thought strikes a person, he will abandon the needs of the body and goes on the path of enlightenment of the soul. He will come out of the cycles of happiness and sadness that body gives. He will not be affected by the death of anyone or a loss of job or money nor will celebrate the success or gain of wealth or marriage or birth of children. For soul to get salvation, coming out of this Samsara is required and that is what Lord Krishna says He will bestow to a person who fixes his mind only on Him and meditates on Him.

Stock Market Trade Setup 4th October #Nifty

Market Trade Setup 4th October

Ugly day, when you really dont want to trade if you are a bull. Being a bull, I feel like running away today and not writ this post but you have to do it as responsibility wont allow you to do so. What went wrong? Everything. US bond yields reach a 7 year high of 3.18%, Brent Crude has crossed 86 dollars, dollar index has crossed 96 and that would mean dollar is growing from strength to strength. The better than expected jobs data from US means increased rates are actually helping US economy to grow. The Dow jones is at a record high now.

If I have to explain you further, the risk free return in US has crossed 3.2% for an average global inflation of 2%. So, you will understand clearly that US pension funds and treasury securities are offering more than 1.2% of real interest rate for its risk free securities. That would mean, funds from everywhere will move to US and that means money will disappear from every emerging market including India and that explains why most of Asia is in red now. Hong Kong is down more than 400 points and in last 1 month it lost more than 2500 points. 

Domestics and Derivatives

On the domestic front, today is going to be real ugly with bond yields going up above 8.12% and could reach 8.2%. Rupee which closed at a record low yesterday will open around 73.70 zone and if things dont improve we might see a 74 on dollar and that would mean total disaster to equity markets. Added to that is the Brent Crude which is at 86.12 dollars now and that means all crude oil related stocks will be in deep red. So banks, NBFCs, crude related stocks everything is going to hit today and in this kind of atmosphere I dont know how much IT stocks can carry the market. 

On the derivatives front, things are horrible there and yesterday afternoon around 1PM itself the 10500 put has overtaken 10800 put for the maximum accumulated open interest. On the call side 11500 still has the maximum accumulated open interest. So, if you have a 1000 point band, Nifty could be exposed to wild swings. That is confirmed with Volatility index crossing 18% mark yesterday and it was at 15% just few days ago. The Nifty futures premium also has dropped a lot from 50 points to 32 points indicating a strong bearishness in the market. The Nifty put call ratio also dropped with demand for calls increasing, it moved from 1.41 to 1.36. 

What is the Nifty call for the day?

A huge gap down will take the market directly to 10770, which is the 200 day moving average and it might open below that at 10750 levels. What happens after that is difficult to guess because the next meaningful support comes at 10600 levels. Today Nifty might try to stabilize itself between 10720-10700 levels and might try to go to 10780 which is the 200 day moving average. I suggest to take a long call during the day or a long position in the futures and I would suggest what position to take during the course of the day.

Market Trade Setup 25th September #Nifty

Another red Monday with a more than 100 point fall has brought Nifty back to below 11000 mark and if you think the worst is over, we still have some of the worse still to come. The 200dma of Nifty is at 10750 and Nifty will try to negotiate that and it means we have another 200 point fall yet to come. Bull markets have their corrections and we have completed 7% of that correction and another 3% might take us around 10600-10700 levels and when that happens, its just the matter of time. But to lose 700 points in a month and 500 points in just 10 trading sessions is not at all a good thing.

The global scenario is also not that bright with Dow closing more than 180 points down on the back of worsening tensions with China and the sanctions with Iran also coming into picture now. The Fed meeting begins today for the Credit policy and there is an expectation of 25 bases point rate hike coming out tomorrow evening. But the biggest negative is the Brent Crude which has surged to a 5 year high of 81.3 dollars and we are above that dreaded 80 dollars and with Rupee worsening things really look ugly. Rupee closed at 72.63 yesterday and today we are surely going to see 73 and if it closes above 73 then its going to be worse for the current account deficit in India. On the Yes bank front, Rajat Monga who is the group VP and ex CFO of Yes bank could be the new boss as things stand today. But lot of time to go before anything is decided.  

On the derivatives front, there has been some buying that has come back to the futures after the battering we got but that is simply not enough to prevent the market from further sliding. The Nifty put call ratio in the options market has come down to 1.05 from 1.14 and this is the lowest I have seen in this year. For sometime in February it went to 1.05 and now we are back to same level again. Call are sold freely and there are 10 calls sold for every 1 put sold and that is contributing to the fall in PCR. 10800 put is now picking steam with 9.4 lakh contracts added and the gap between 11000 and 10800 put is just 6 lakh contracts so the danger of base moving to 10800 from 11000 is there. On the call side 11200 call is just 1 lakh contracts less than 11500 and today if there is a fall the roof will shrink to 11200 from 11500. 

What is Nifty call for the day?

A flat Asia means we will also open flat below the 11000 mark and with Crude above 81 and Rupee reaching 73 could be a deadly combination that could take the market into red. The fall has no limit and 10770-10740which is the 200dma range is the last support. On the upside Nifty wont go above 11200 levels and 11150-11180 might be a strong resistance. As said many times, money in the pockets is better than money in red. So, stay out and see which way the market goes.

Market Trade Setup 3rd September #Nifty

September starts on a note that it is known for. Septembers always have been cautious and no over-optimism or pessimism. That is why if you compare the last 3 years Septembers were always flat not getting carried away either by good news or bad news. Let’s hope that this September also behaves the same way. The US markets were flat on Friday and today they are shut on account of labor day so no big clues available. Asia is down on account of trade wars in Europe emerging slowly. Hong Kong is down more than 250 points and other markets were down anywhere between 0.5% to 1%. 

On the domestic front, the big news that will move the market today is the GDP number that came at 8.2% and the GVA number that came at 8%. For a 8% GVA if the tax collections were good then we would have seen a 8.3 to 8.4% GDP but 8.2% indicates lower tax collections which is a worrying point. Another worrying point is the drop in the services sector GDP has actually been lower than 8.2%. The good point is manufacturing that grew 13.8% and excellent numbers from construction and Agriculture that indicates that jobs are getting created in the unorganized sector.

The other domestics are the very good numbers that have come from the auto sales in August and this could be positive. Commercial vehicles grew very well led by Ashok Leyland reported 28% growth in commercial sales, Tata Motors commercial vehicles grew at 26% and M&M commercial vehicles sales went up 25%. Maruti, Hero and TVS saw a drop in sales due to Kerala floods. Now coming to the negative fundamentals its the strengthening dollar again where the dollar index crossed 95 and stands at 95.2 now. That means fresh pressure on Rupee and we might see Rupee tumbling to another all time low. On the other hand the Brent crude prices are still holding on and not showing signs of falling. They are still around 78 dollars per barrel.

Derivatives Action

On the derivatives front, the first day saw a massive short build-up in the Nifty futures and the percentage of Nifty long positions came down from 64% to 60%. On the options market also the shorts in the calls side is more than the shorts on the put side. But when it comes to longs, there were 2 puts bought for every call. The put call ratio now stands at 1.55. 11600 put added 7 lakh contracts and 11500 put added 5 lakh contracts and 11700 put added 3.1 lakh contracts. With this the 11600 put has the maximum accumulated open interest now and that means 11520 will be the new floor for the market in this series. On the call side 12000 call added 5 lakh contracts and 11800 call added 4.9 lakh contracts and 11800 still has the maximum accumulated open interest. At 100 rupee premium 11900 could be the new roof. 

What is the Nifty call for the day?

GDP numbers will make our markets open in green at 11700 levels and the long position you have taken on Friday at 11640-11660 will have a 40-60 point profit. First resistance might come t 11720-11740 zone and Nifty might correct to 11650 intraday after touching this level. So, it is better to exit the long positions as soon as 11720 is reached. The minimum profit you are guaranteed with is 50-60 points. As the market starts negotiating this positive and negative factors, stay out and see where it closes. Any close below 11680 is not good for the near term.

Market Trade Setup 30th August- Expiry Day Special #Nifty

Markets and News

Finally, the longest series is finally drawing to a close. A series that started with a lot of scepticism and worry is now coming to an end with most of the worries put behind and Nifty gained 4.6% in this series. So last two series has seen a gain of 1100 points on Nifty. July series has began at 10600 levels and today we are at 11700. This series started off on a all time high note when Nifty crossed 11170 high made previously on the first day itself. From then on it was an uptrend all the way as Nifty conquered 11200, 11300, 11400, 11500, 11600, 11700 and finally came to the summit level of 11750. Very rarely in a single series you will see these many all time highs.

On the fundamentals, there are some major worries to encounter today in the form of Rupee weakness and Brent Crude surging. The Rupee had a big fall yesterday and has seen crossing the 70.50 levels to go to as low as 70.65 to finally settle at 70.59. This is an all time lowest closing level for Rupee and now Rupee hitting 71 is imminent and coupled to that is the Crude now crossing 77 dollars and trading at 77.3 and this would mean huge pressure on the current account deficit. What impact all this will have on a expiry day needs to be seen.

Coming back to the expiry again, and it was 4-3 in the favour of bulls till July series. January, April, May and July went to bulls while February, March and June series went for bears. Now August series is on a 500 plus point gain and it is going to be 5-3 in favour of bulls now. The roll overs in the market is at 69% as on yesterday vs an average of 63%, Nifty roll overs were at 53% vs an average of 46%. The Nifty futures premium held on to 13 points and stayed above 11700 while Nifty spot came down below 11700 levels. So, F&O cues looks bullish.

On the Options market also, the high level of Nifty put call ratio which was 1.94 at the beginning of the day dropped to 1.84 at the end of the ay mainly due to unwinding of positions on the put side. 11700 put saw 11.2 lakh positions unwounded and 11600 put saw 4.1 lakh positions and 11500 put 4.6 positions was responsible for bringing down PCR. On the call side 11800 call has the maximum accumulated open interest of 31.8 lakh positions while 10750 call added maximum open interest of 10.9 lakh positions yesterday. 

What is the Nifty call for the day?

Yesterday’s options action shows that 11700 put has seen maximum shedding and today it might get a support there which means support will come to Nifty at 11680 levels on the down side and 11750 call added maximum open interest on call side and at 9 rupees premium 11760 is the roof for the market. Most probably the expiry might happen within these contours and if 11680 is broken the next support is at 11640 levels and 11600 levels. So, its the 3PM move that will decide whether these markers would be broken. You took 3 positions, all of them are making profits as of now and lets hope it stays that way at expiry. Good luck…..

Gold – India’s dream run for first Olympic Gold as a free nation! #Gold #MovieReview

Gold – India’s dream run for first Olympic Gold as a free nation!

Cast: Director: Reema Kagiti, Akshay Kumar as Tapan Das,  Mouni Roy as Monobina Das, Kunal Kapoor as Samrat, Amit Sadh, Vicky Kaushal and others as Players. Produced by Farhan Akhtar and Ritesh Sidhwani.

Firstly, it was after a long time that I had gone to watch movie with my good friend with whom I usually used to watch every Akshay Kumar movie. GOLD is a wonderful experience for someone who would want to go back and ride the history of Indian hockey and its glorious days. This movie tells us many things and gives us some valuable lessons to learn and inculcate. No better day than Independence day to release this movie, producers are indeed nearing towards profit mark. As usual this time also I will give the short summary of the movie and my takeaways from this movie. Yes, understandably there are misrepresentation of facts as its only movie trying to depict the history.

Story:

It was the 1936 Olympics and it’s the host nation Germany vs India (British India) in the finals of Hockey for Gold Medal. Indian players are representing the British team and are in furious mood as then German leader Adolf Hitler had spoken ill about India and Indians didn’t like. All players show their dissent right from the beginning of the match and they take revenge by thrashing the German Team and take home the Gold Medal. It was not just the medal but it was also the love of the German fans that India had won. But what’s more important for Indian players was all the credit goes to British and the National Anthem played is British. This was the moment where Indian Captain Samrat and the manager Tapan Das (AK) dream something very big and that is to see India win Hockey Gold as a free nation. This is the actual start to the movie and movie shows how Tapan Das the manager of Indian Hockey Team who is a gambler, drunkard and not so very well-behaved person shows complete dedication and massive respect towards the game of Hockey.

It was the 1936 Olympics and it’s the host nation Germany vs India (British India) in the finals of Hockey for Gold Medal. Indian players are representing the British team and are in furious mood as then German leader Adolf Hitler had spoken ill about India and Indians didn’t like. All players show their dissent right from the beginning of the match and they take revenge by thrashing the German Team and take home the Gold Medal. It was not just the medal but it was also the love of the German fans that India had won. But what’s more important for Indian players was all the credit goes to British and the National Anthem played is British. This was the moment where Indian Captain Samrat and the manager Tapan Das (AK) dream something very big and that is to see India win Hockey Gold as a free nation. This is the actual start to the movie and movie shows how Tapan Das the manager of Indian Hockey Team who is a gambler, drunkard and not so very well-behaved person shows complete dedication and massive respect towards the game of Hockey.

Olympics get cancelled in 1940 and 1944 and only in the year 1948 the Olympics return at London and Tapan Das is super excited about this news. Someone who spent 12 years without any meaning had actually found that his big dream is now not far away and he needs to get the team ready. This part of the movie is the awe-inspiring act by Tapan Das who creates a team scouting all around the Country. But partition of 1947 takes away everything, including his captain and four players who decide to go to Pakistan and few Foreigners decide to go back to their homeland. He is left with only a handful Indians. As he was about to give up Samrat re-surfaces and rejuvenates Tapan Das to pursue his dream of building a team.

This story of rebuilding the team and creating remarkable players who go on to defeat the mighty British team in their home land in the 1948 Olympics and to take the revenge of 200 years of rule was a treat to watch. Sure you would feel the Goosebumps multiple times in the Movie.

My takeaways for you from the Movie:

Not taking it further, every movie teaches us something and this movie gives us a simple yet most powerful lesson to learn and that is to be united, believing and committed to the Dream. Yes it’s the Dream that’s much bigger than anything else. You dream and only then you will be able to work towards it and accomplish it. Unfortunately, we have many people who are full of Dreams but no support and that’s where the factor of belief comes. The last time India won a hockey gold was in 1980. That is almost 38 years ago! It’s not that winning is not in the minds of the present players but what lacks in them is the ‘Dream’ that a Winning team needs. There will be obstacles which are there to spoil the Dream and they come in the form of Politics, Ego and Jealousy both in the players and in the Management. If we learn to manage them well, we will see many Golds coming to India, not just the hockey but in all other games as well…. Gold is just a reminder to the 130 Cr Indians of what they can do, if they dream, believe and chase the dream!!!

Bhagavadgita Chapter 10 Vibhuti Vistara Yoga Verse 29

Chapter 10 Vibhuti Vistara Yoga Verse 29
Shloka

Mrityuh sarvaharashchaaham udbhavashcha bhavishyataam;

Keertih shreervaakcha naareenaam smritirmedhaadhritih kshamaa.

Translation

And I am all-devouring death, and prosperity of those who are to be prosperous;

among feminine qualities I am fame, prosperity, speech, memory, intelligence, firmness and forgiveness.

Interpretation

In this shloka, Lord Krishna is comparing Himself to certain abstract things. He compares Himself to death first. After that He goes on to compare Himself to the prosperity of the people who are prosperous. Then He goes to explain the feminine qualities where He says that He is the fame, which also means popularity. He also says that He is the prosperity and then goes on to say that the Lord Himself is the speech and the memory in an individual. He is also the intelligence, firmness and the forgiveness of an individual.

Extending Interpretation to Mankind’s Life!

What is all devouring death? Devouring means consuming or eating. Death consumes everything. It is an end of everything that comes once but takes away everything. Death consumes everything in us, our ambitions, ego, knowledge, pride, affection, care, love and the list is endless. And Lord compares Himself to Death, He is comparing Himself to the most powerful thing that can remove every other thing in just a moment. Prosperity is opposite to death. If death consumes everything, prosperity bestows everything. In that way, both are God and there is God in both.

What are feminine qualities? These are the qualities that are desired in a women. The first three are the external qualities that are visible while the other four are internal in nature. Every women should possess them. A lady with a fame can take care of everyone around her and can manage every relationship that she has with different individuals. Prosperity talks about how a lady manages her household. A housed is prosperous only because of the lady and the way she manages the money earned by her husband. The third external quality is the speech. The way she speaks and deals with the people around helps in bringing harmony and peace to the surroundings.

The rest of the four qualities are internal in nature which helps her to deal with the things on day to day basis. Apart from this there are masculine qualities also, but they are linked more to the physical attributes than the ones involving mind. Thus masculine qualities are more physical in nature while the feminine are more artistic and mental. Lord compares Himself to the feminine qualities as possessing them is considered to be more valuable in the society as these qualities help in building the personality of an individual in a more structured way.

Market Trade Setup 9th August #Nifty

Markets and News

Another new all time high hit yesterday and the market is moving only higher, higher and higher. The US markets are also playing the ball and yesterday NASDAQ posted 7 session positive closing which is happening only second time this year. Dow Jones took a slight breather last night when it closed 50 points down. The best news is coming from the Crude oil front, where Crude it a 7 week low with brent crude falling below 72.5 dollars straight from 75 dollars. Asia is gravitating between mild red and mild green.

Domestic Cues

On the domestic front, the story of this month has been coming back of FIIs to the Indian markets. In May and June FIIs sod in cast market and July saw an almost flat action from FIIs. August however saw some positivity and they bought 1134 crore and that means money is coming back to India from FIIs. On the other news, HPCL and BPCL have reported weak numbers on the back of increasing Crude price and pressure on margins. NMDC is down but they look much better than expectations. In the pharma space Cipla has come up with a decent set of numbers.

Derivatives Action

On the derivatives front there has been a mixed action on the futures front and the Nifty long positions on futures remained constant at 58%. However the action on options front was different with a lot of demand getting created for options. The Nifty put call ratio rose to 1.77 from 1.67 and that is the big worry. 11300 put added 7.9 lakh contracts and 11400 put added 7.8 lakh contracts and 11500 put added 3.8 lakh contracts. On the call side 11700 call added 2.1 lakh contracts while in all the other strikes there was unwinding of positions.

What is the Nifty call for the day?

A flat Asia means we might open flat around 11450 and these all time high areas really dont have markers. Crude is positive but the internals are putting pressure on markets. If FIIs continue buying in cash market, it will make Nifty to go up, but this is an exhausted Nifty and 11480 is a zone where it might halt. On the down side 11400-11420 is a support zone and we need to see whether Nifty has the mojo to cross 11480 or not.