Tag Archives: General Elections

General Elections 2019! Mid Year Predictions – Northern Region #LokSabha2019

Lok Sabha Elections 2019 Predictions – Northern Region 

So I am back with the Elections Predictions on this Tuesday. The journey of predicting for the General Elections 2019 which started on 29th May is going to complete the region wise picture today and next week will be the All India picture. When we last visited election predictions and stopped with Western India Predictions, NDA was sitting at 214 seats and UPA at 203 seats with 126 seats left. Today you will know who will be the people’s choice in 2019 elections. But just few words before talking about the North Indian states, this predictions thing has seriously helped me in understanding the politics in the country. Someone who had restricted himself to Telangana, now has good knowledge on almost all the states.

Fine, so coming to the Northern Indian region of India. We have 7 states and Chandigarh here with 126 seats. Out of the 126 seats it’s the Uttar Pradesh which takes 2/3rds with 80 seats and rest 46 divided between other states. Let’s see if UPA is going to do any harm to NDA or will NDA retain the power in 2019!

  1. Uttar Pradesh: The Big State with 80 seats which was the jackpot for BJP in last elections is looking to be a disappointment this time. 2014 saw BJP winning as many as 73 seats and SP+BSP put together winning only 7 seats. This was a huge victory for BJP. This time though BJP will have to taste the bitterness as the predictions show that BJP will fall to 48 and SP+BSP alliance is looking to come back strong and win 32 seats. It is only in Paschim Pradesh or Western UP where BJP is kind of sweeping with 19 out of 28 but not as good as 2014 where it had won 25 seats. Avadh the minority dominated region and a strong hold of SP will be setback as BJP which won 11 last time out of 14 is now dropping to 6. Purvanchal is yet another disappointment for BJP, in the 2014 elections BJP has won 31 out of 32 and this time they are falling to 19 seats. It’s a victory for SP+BSP as they are jumping from 1 seat to 13 seats. And from the last region of 6 seats Bundelkhand BJP is losing 2 seats compared to 6 they won last time. Big point is I am expecting Rahul Gandhi to lose the election to Smriti Irani from Amethi.
  2. Jammu and Kashmir: To the top most state of the Country, in the last elections BJP was in alliance with PDP and it was a great move as they went on to win all the 6 seats. PDP won 3 from Kashmir region which has about 98% Muslim population, BJP won 2 seats in Jammu and 1 seat from Ladakh. We know that the alliance is no more in place and BJP will not and cannot win anything in Kashmir so straight they will fall to 2 as Ladakh is also looking difficult for BJP.
  3. Punjab: The only state where Congress is in power after 2014 elections. Akali Dal and BJP lost the assembly elections badly and Congress came back to the power in 2017. This will really effect the BJP+SAD and their numbers will drop to just 5 out of 13 seats. AAP has lost all its value and will not win anything. INC will gain majorly and will be up from 3 last time to 8 seats now.
  4. Delhi & Chandigarh: The capital has got 7 seats and BJP had clean swept all the 7 seats in the last elections. This time though due to some political problems and anti-incumbency will make way for Congress. Expecting BJP to lose 2 seats and might win 5 seats. From Chandigarh the only seat will go to Kirron Kher from BJP. Congress might win the remaining 2 seats in Delhi.
  5. Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh: Two states which are Pro BJP and I am not seeing any trouble for BJP. Both together there are 9 seats, Uttarakhand 5 and Himachal Pradesh 4. In 2014 BJP won all the 9, expecting BJP to do the same in 2019.
  6. Haryana: Another state which has the feeling of anti-incumbency and it will hurt BJP. Last time BJP has won 7 seats out of 10. This time with the fall of 2 seats BJP will retain 5 seats. It is the Indian National Lok Dal which is going to gain more due to the political issues in the state.

These are the predictions for the Northern Indian region and the race of prediction for the regions has come to an end. My predictions for the Northern India gives BJP 75 seats, INC 12 seats and others at 39 seats. Which takes the tally of BJP or NDA to 289, UPA to 95 and others to 159. With no confirmations on who will join whom and whether the present coalition parties will stay or not these numbers still look dangerous even though NDA might cross the majority mark. BJP+Allies as of now are at 289 without adding any support from South Indian states. In my South India predictions, we have seen Rajinikanth winning good numbers. There is always chance of parties jumping here and there.

Next week will be my concluding post where I will give you state by state figures for all the states and also will tell you how many seats BJP alone can win. Will it be less than 272, then how much less it will be and who are the partners it can bank upon. Wait for the concluding post on 3rd July, you will surely find it interesting!

General Elections 2019! Mid Year Predictions – Western India Region #LokSabha2019

 

Lok Sabha Elections 2019 Predictions – Western Region

Tuesday and its third consecutive post on the elections 2019 predictions. The contest is getting tighter and tighter and the competition for the Crown isn’t too far. By this time next year, we would be under the rule of ‘Newly Formed’ Government ‘BJP led NDA’ or ‘INC led UPA’. This time the contest is more going towards a two-party fight unlike previous elections. Yes, its not sure how many parties are going to join hands with INC in UPA but NDA is going to face tough task this time as reports suggest. Today it’s the Western Region and I have 132 seats under my prediction scanner from 5 states and 2 union territories. 5 states are Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Goa. Union territories include Daman & Diu and Dadra & Haveli.

1. Maharashtra: Let me start off with the most crucial state for the coming election and that is Maharashtra. It has the Highest number of seats at 48 of which BJP+Shiv Sena together won 42 in 2014. It was a sweep for BJP. This time around expecting that BJP will have coalition with SHS the predictions are made. Unlike last time, I feel that BJP+SHS might not do well and will see a fall in the seats. The damage is majorly because of Madhya Maharashtra going Congress way, thanks to an alliance with NCP. This way BJP is going down to 34 seats and Congress-NCP alliance is gaining 8 seats more to go to 14 seats. It can even get worse for BJP if they fail to keep Shiv Sena with them. If BJP fights alone the tally might comedown from 34 to just 15. We will see many events rolling up in the coming days in Maharashtra!

2. Gujarat: Last time on the back of Modi wave Gujarat was clean swept by BJP by winning all the 26 seats. But this time things have changed, when electorate gives 100% seats for a Party then it has got that power to develop and do well. From the assembly elections which happened very recently that was not to be. BJP struggled but finally won it for one more time. That unhappiness in the minds of people might be an advantage for Congress and they will be able to do the damage that’s going to change the things a bit. Saurashtra was the biggest problem for BJP in assembly elections. But this time its not going to be that easy for Congress to sweep Saurashtra. Personally, I feel INC might not capitalize and BJP will lose seats but not a big downfall. BJP will be able to take 21 seats and Congress will win 5 seats.

3. Rajasthan: Another jackpot state for BJP where they have won all the 25 seats in 2014 elections. Rajasthan is a very critical state. Assembly elections are nearing and the tide is not going in favor of BJP. Few People feel that Vasundhara Raje has not delivered enough and few are happy. Which few is majority is what we will see in the assembly elections in November. That will have big impact on the Lok Sabha Elections as well. My feeling says that BJP will lose it badly this time and I see BJP at 16 and Congress at 9. This is a big fall from 25 seats. The regions where BJP will be losing will be Alwar, Ajmer and Mewar regions. These regions have their own problems which BJP has to pay for.

4. Madhya Pradesh: In this three-region state of Madhya Pradesh, last elections saw BJP winning 27 and INC winning only 2. This is another state which will be up for polls this year November. It has been always a strong state for BJP and has got good leaders. That 27 seats winning was a big achievement for BJP which they will not be able to achieve in the coming elections 2019. One of the reason being the farmers unrest. Always BJP has been winning this state since last 3 terms with very good majority. So, it’s going to be really interesting to watch how the results fare. With the news and data, I have got, I feel that BJP will come down big to 18 from 27 and INC will increase to 11 from 2. This is majorly due to the drop in the seats of BJP in Maha Koshal and Malwa regions. They will be able to maintain their 2014 tally in Madhya Bharat region.

Apart from this out of 2 seats in Goa, 1 each will go to INC and BJP. Other two union territories will both go to BJP. That’s how the Western India Elections Predictions looks like.

Till now from the three regions it now looks to be a very tight race as NDA is at 214 seats and UPA and others are at 203 seats. So out of the predicted 417 seats NDA has got 214 seats and UPA plus others gets 203 seats. That 203 seats includes all other independents and other smaller parties. What needs to be seen is how many will leave or stay with UPA or NDA. BJP as per the predictions made needs 60 more seats from the available 126 seats to come from Northern India.
This is really going to the last stage and we will all have that climax after 2 weeks! Next week am taking a break from the predictions and my North Indian Predictions for the remaining 126 seats will happen in two weeks’ time!

Till then, keep waiting…keep counting!

General Elections 2019! Mid Year Predictions – Eastern India Region #LokSabha2019

Lok Sabha Elections 2019 Predictions – Eastern India

Tuesday it is and its Psephology again for 2nd week running. As promised this post will be concentrating on the Eastern India’s predictions for general elections 2019. As part of Eastern India, I have taken West Bengal, Orissa, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar and North East states – Assam, Mizoram, Manipur, Tripura, Meghalaya, Nagaland and Sikkim.

  1. West Bengal: Starting off with the most crucial state of West Bengal. Bengal is a Strong hold for the opposition and is a potential place for third front. West Bengal politics was in news in last few days for the havoc that we have witnessed in the Panchayat Elections. Though the people of West Bengal still believe in Didi – Mamata Banerjee – few sections of people are changing their view and we could see a major fight for seats. There are chances that Sourav Ganguly might get in as well. Not confirmed yet. There are 42 seats in total and this is divided into 3 regions. They are Gorkha land, Hooghly region and the third is the Burdwan region. In the three regions Gorkha Land is the only place where BJP is strong and is supposed to do well. Apart from this it will get one, two seats from other two regions. Problem for BJP is the absence of a strong leader in West Bengal.

 

  1. Orissa: Not much to be spoken about this Biju Patnaik’s State which has vested power in Naveen Patnaik for almost 20 years now. Very much like West Bengal where BJP doesn’t have much to say, BJP is also not a big player here. But in last 2 years or so, BJP is making every effort to take the opposition spot vacated by Congress. Still there are some places like Bargarh, Sundargarh and Bhubaneshwar where BJP can smell the victories. Looks a tough fight for BJP and BJD will easily win this.

 

  1. Chattisgarh: BJP is too strong here to lose and let the opposition parties win the battle. So, my predictions aren’t going to change from what it has achieved in its last elections. 10 of 11 is what BJP will get. In 2014 and in 2009 elections also BJP got 10 out of 11 seats here.

 

  1. Jharkhand: Another easy state for BJP. In the power in this state since the time State was formed. Either as coalition or Single party. No major heart breaks with respect to anti-incumbency will be relief for BJP. Situations Looks like BJP will lose one of its seats to INC.

 

  1. Bihar: Bihar is always unpredictable state because we have leaders like Lalu and Nitesh Kumar who are the best friends and best enemies as well. One cannot say if Nitesh will stay with BJP or change his stance. But as of now things look very good for BJP and this coalition of BJP and JDU will be the big win in the eastern India. There will be lot of swing that can happen where BJP will lose its seats to INC/RJD and RJD/INC will lose its seats to BJP. This can be crucial for BJP. Bihar is divided into 4 regions, the tirhut region which is adjacent to Nepal, the Kosi belt, the seemanchal region dominated by Muslims and the Magadh region which is the center of power with 17 out of 40 seats. Whoever does well in Magadh will take Bihar and this time too BJP-JDU combine is likely to do very well in Magadh.Things can change but as of now BJP looks like losing 2 seats to opposition.

 

  1. North Eastern States: The Seven Sisters though have very less seats compared to other states. They will play big role in determining the winner in the Eastern India. Overall North East has 25 seats with highest seats coming from Assam. BJP has turned everything upside down in last 4 years and it has been sweeping in the assembly elections off late in north east. Assam, Tripura, Meghalaya and others. Expecting a big jump for BJP here, which will be a big add to their tally. Expecting BJP to score as high as 19 out of 25.

This is how the Eastern India Predictions look like with just less than a year to go for Lok Sabha elections. The tally after the overall prediction for Eastern India brings BJP 82 seats out of 153 seats while the INC sits at 21 and others at 50. BJP though is ahead of Others+INC in Eastern India by 9 seats, both Eastern and Southern India combined the tally stands at 122 compared to 163 for the opposition. If all the parties do come together BJP then this numbers look dangerous for BJP. Good news is when you compare BJP’s tally, it was 88 both East and South combined in 2014 but now it has jumped to 122. A big boost for BJP.

Next week I will be back with Western India, where there are no others. It’s a direct contest between BJP and Congress and in 2014 BJP literally swept every state and let’s see how many of it can they hold in 2019 and how much of a comeback Congress has made.

 

General Elections-2019! Mid Year Predictions – South India Region #LokSabha2019

It’s Tuesday and it’s my post day. Very recently the NDA Government has completed its 4th year of ruling and they have just 1 more year left before the Lok Sabha elections 2019 take place. Many surveys and polls have been conducted on to see what can happen in 2019 and look at the party’s performance state wise. Last year around this time I had given the seats that can be won by parties as on that day. Starting from today, for the next one month I will predict the seats that BJP, INC and others will be winning in 2019 elections.

These predictions are not of any survey done by me nor a copy of any survey of any TV channel. This is based on the political situations that exist in those states as on today, the perceptions of people reflected trough various surveys and polls coupled with my analysis. I have divided this into 5 parts. The first 4 parts will focus on four regions of India and in the last part I will give an all India picture.

Today it is the turn of BJP’s less favored region of South India. South India is complicated with every state having its own dynamics and the party which is there in one state is not there in other state. Like TRS which is only there in Telangana, TDP and YSRCP in Andhra Pradesh etc. South India includes states like Telangana (17), Andhra Pradesh (25), Karnataka (28), Kerala (20) and Tamil Nadu (39). Union territories Lakshadweep and Pondicherry with 1 seat each. Total of 132 seats.

  1. Telangana is the first state am going to predict. It has 17 seats in total and TRS, Congress, BJP, AIMIM and TDP are the parties contending. I give 10 seats to TRS mostly from North Telangana districts, 4 seats for BJP, coming from the City and other Urban places. Congress will have to limit itself with 2 seats from South Telangana.
  2. Andhra Pradesh another Telugu State which had seen a more than half seats going to coalition of BJP and TDP in 2014. Now with TDP and BJP becoming deadly enemies on the issue of special status, expect a tactical understanding of BJP with YSRCP to teach TDP a lesson. This understanding will exist more on ground and will not reflect as an alliance. This will majorly benefit BJP as YSRCP looks much stronger to capture power in AP. I give 13 out of 25 seats to YSRCP, coming from Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra equally and 4 seats for BJP coming from places like Vizag, Rajahmundry and probably Rajampet. TDP which won 15 seats last time will be reduced to 8.
  1. Karnataka, state which had elections just few days ago has seen a roller coaster of elections. JDS and Congress now with the coalition have confirmed that they will be participating as one in the Lok Sabha Elections. Will that hit them back or help them is something to be seen. As per my fundamental study I feel that it is going to be a little boost to BJP. Expecting a two seat jump to 19 from 17.  Major gains for BJP will come from Mumbai Karnataka where it will win 5 out of 6 seats, Coastal Karnataka where it will sweep all the 3 seats and Central Karnataka where it will win 5 out of 9 seats and also will win few seats in Hyderabad Karnataka and in Bangalore City and Mysore. Cong-JDS combine will be reduced to just 9 seats.
  2. Kerala is the only place in South India where BJP had no seats for many years. But that changed in the assembly elections of 2016 where it won its first seat and got more than 13% vote share and it is expected to do well in the 2019 elections. This is going to be a big plus for BJP if they manage to get the seats I am predicting. I am seeing victory in 5 seats for BJP compared to nothing in 2014. To add a point, in the year 2014 BJP had 10% vote share which jumped to 13% in 2016. So, at the same pace if the vote share goes to 17-18% then they will be able to win 5 seats. These seats will come from North Kerala region of Kasargod, probably in Thrissur and Thiruvananthapuram in South Kerala.
  1. Tamil Nadu – the state of confusion. We now have five big parties fighting out in this state. AIADMK, DMK, AIADMK, Rajnikanth’s new party, MNM of Kamal Hassan and the NDA which has parties like DK, DMDK, PMK and BJP. AIADMK with the amount of anti-incumbency is ruled out to win even one seat of the 39 seats. Last time Jayalalitha’s brand had given them 37 seats but now it’s really tough for them. Plus people voted for her as she put herself for the PM position in case if there is a hung parliament. It is going to be new players who will win it big this time. BJP will also make its inroads and win few major seats. Rajinikanth and Kamal Haasan are going to win it big this time. Rajinikanth with all his rural power will take highest number of seats, especially in South Tamilnadu. Rajnikanth will win 19 out of 40 seats mostly in Southern and Rural Tamilnadu, Kamal Hassan’s MNM will win 6 seats from Urban TN, BJP combine will win 7 seats mostly in western TN and Kanyakumari district. DMK is expected to get 7 seats mostly in Chennai city and North Tamilnadu.

Of the three union territories of Andamans, Pondicherry and Lakshadweep BJP will take Andamans and INC will take Pondicherry and Lakshadweep. So, here is the South India tally for this week.

Party 2019
BJP 40
INC 22
Others 70
Total 132

 

Overall, if we see the tally goes to 132 seats. Out of which BJP is looking set to win 40 seats as compared to 22 seats that they have won in the year 2014. With the support of TDP they had 37. This time even without the support of TDP they are looking to make big gain of 18 seats.

That’s how the overall tally looks with BJP at 40, INC at 22 and others at 70. South India which isn’t favorite region for BJP has made good ground to gain the seats. It all depends on how the parities strategize and win more seats. Other parties will have huge role to play in the South Indian region.

In my next Tuesday post, I will focus on the Eastern states of Orissa, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, West Bengal and North Eastern states. Wait for it!!