Tag Archives: General Elections

Orissa and Gujarat – Far from each other but not very different politically. #LokSabha2019 #IndiaVotes

Today we shall look at the history and the two states which are on the two corners of India. One on the east is the Odisha and one on the west is Gujarat. There are quite a few similarities between these two states yet the parties in power in both the states are different.

Let’s look at some interesting facts:

Starting with Gujarat. It was in the year 1995 that first-time BJP came to power and is still in power even after 24 years. There has been no anti-Incumbency against BJP. Gujarat in these 24 years has made development do the talking. There has been high urbanization of the state, no backwardness, no heavy dependency on the Agriculture. Gujarat is known for one of the top states into industrial space and also the services sector. Gujarat has become the centre for sectors like Pharma, Textile, Diamond, Petro-chemical sectors and of course Stock markets.

Now coming to Orissa, it was in the year 1999 that BJD party was given power by the people of Orissa. And the same party is ruling Orissa for 20 years and is fighting for 5th term along with Lok Sabha Elections 2019. There has been no anti-Incumbency here too. But then the drawbacks here are that Orissa is still backward and has a high tribal population in poverty. High poverty and lowest urbanization are seen everywhere except Bhubaneshwar and Cuttack.

With these many differences how is that both the parties are enjoying victories for so many years? Simply Development! Gujarat Govt BJP has been giving all the possible facilities to the traders to improve their trade and commerce. Traders thus have been backing Gujarat for many years. Recently, in the 2017 assembly elections Saurashtra which is agriculture driven area went to Congress but then areas like Kutch, Surat, Baroda, Ahmedabad have voted for BJP and saved them. This was right after the GST and Demonetisation.

On the other side, Orissa’s Biju Janata Dal Govt is known for constantly focussing on uplifting the women and the tribals. The Self-help group started by BJD has really helped the people of Orissa. Naveen Patnaik’s policy of leaving the tribes on their own with full autonomy helped them to get the tribal vote.

Both the states have been a leader-centric and backed their respective leaders, Narendra Modi since 2001 in Gujarat and Naveen Patnaik since 1999 in Orissa.

All about Lok Sabha 2019 – Naveen Patnaik had come to elections in 1999, with an alliance with Atal ji’s BJP. Of the 21 seats then BJD+BJP won 19/21 and Congress won just 2. The same alliance in 2004 won 18 seats, BJD 11, BJP 7, INC 2 and JMM 1. Once Atal Ji retired, Naveen Patnaik separated with BJP and in 2009 Naveen Patnaik fought all alone, where he won 14, CPM 1, Congress 6 and BJP nil. With BJP losing grip in Orissa, Modi and Shah in 2013 decided to build BJP in Orissa by going independently. In 2014 within 6 months of time, BJP won 1 seat while BJD won 20. Though this was a bad loss, this wiped out Congress and opened doors for BJP. Recently held Panchayat elections BJP was the party with the highest number of seats.

Odisha elections are happening in 4 phases: 
• 1st phase 4 seats
• 2nd phase 5 seats
• 3rd phase 6 seats
• 4th phase 6 seats

In 2019 elections, according to the projections from opinion polls, BJP might win 11-13, BJD 8-10 and nothing for Congress. Naveen Patnaik is turning old and losing the charm and there are no leaders who can take forward the legacy. This is advantage BJP. And Sooner or later Orissa will be ruled by Right Wing party for the first time in its history.

Coming to Gujarat, all the 26 seats of Gujarat are voting in the 3rd phase on 23rd of April. The previous election in 2014 was a big victory as BJP swept to win 26/26. This time, BJP is expected to easily win the 16 seats in Gujarat region comprehensively while Saurashtra and Kutch might offer some resistance. Still, BJP is expected to sweep Gujarat winning 22-24 seats, leaving just 2-4 for Congress. Modi’s personal popularity and his Gujarati tag will help him there.

Overall for 47 seats of Gujarat and Orissa – BJP is expected to win 33-37 seats, UPA 2-4 seats and BJD 8-10 seats.

Election drama from the ‘K’ States in South India. Kerala and Karnataka. #LokSabha2019

South Indian dishes are so different from North India just like the politics of South India and North India. Like North India, South India doesn’t actually vote for the National Parties but they chose regional parties over the National parties. It’s the same when it comes to Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. But then there are two states Kerala and Karnataka which are in line with the North Indian states.

Both Kerala and Karnataka have had the history of voting National Parties to power which is why we don’t get to see major regional parties in these two states. Kerala for its own reasons revolves between Congress and CPM. Karnataka votes between Congress and BJP. The late 20th-century entrant into Karnataka was Deva Gowda’s JDS.

Karnataka had been a special place for Congress till 1991 where they had won almost 80%-100% seats from 1951 to 1991. Of the total 28 seats in Karnataka, Congress was winning 25-28 seats till 1991. Things changed then and the major shift happened in 1996 when JDS led by Deva Gowda won 16 seats and became the Prime Minister. Then the second shift happened in 2004 where Karnataka started to vote for BJP and BJP was winning anywhere between 17-19 seats.

Karnataka is divided into four regions. Below are the regions and the seat numbers part of those regions.

  • Mumbai Karnataka which has seats like Belgaum, Hubli etc
  • Coastal Karnataka which has seats like Mangalore, Udupi etc
  • Hyderabad Karnataka which has news like Gulbarga, Bellary, Raichur etc
  • Old Mysore which is the largest with 13 seats that include Bangalore, Mysore, Tumkur etc

Of the 28 seats and in the four regions, BJP will win in Mumbai Karnataka and Coastal Karnataka as these are traditional BJP seats and they are with BJP for last 15 years. These two regions are strongholds of BJP, Hyderabad Karnataka and Old Mysore are the JDS+Congress strongholds. With JDS and Congress coming together the vote share will surely increase for the coalition which will pose a challenge to BJP. This time there could be a vertical split with 28 seats going 14-14 to BJP and Cong-JDS combine. This is only because of Cong-JDS alliance else, BJP would have again crossed 18 seat mark.

Kerala the fortress for Communist Party of India (Marxist), but only alternatively.

Kerala has been the place for CPM and Congress for a long time. Kerala is divided into two regions, North Kerala and South Kerala. Kerala has got 20 seats and the polling for all the 20 seats will be on April 23rd. In the 2014 elections, UDF led by Congress won 12 seats and LDF led by CPM won 8 seats. That’s the competition between the Congress and Communist party in Kerala.

There are some surprises which could come up in this elections in Kerala and that could be a win for BJP for the first time. BJP is hoping to win two seats. One is the Thiruvananthapuram seat which they lost by a small margin and second is Thrissur which has sizable Hindu population and from where famous actor Suresh Gopi is contesting from BJP ticket. One seat where BJP can give some competition to CPM is the Kasargode seat where religious polarization due to the killing of RSS workers might make the Hindus to shift votes to BJP.

But the tide is expected to be in the way of Congress this time with 14-15 seats coming their way. Wayanad is the seat that has caught all the attention after Rahul Gandhi has nominated himself from there, this decision of Rahul is being highly trolled by BJP. But then ultimately, Wayanad is a strong seat for Congress and with Rahul contesting it’s going to an easy job for INC and Rahul Gandhi to become part of 17th Lok Sabha. CPM is losing badly this time with just 3 seats coming their way and BJP could be the surprise with 2 wins and 1 very tough race.

So, of the 48 seats from Karnataka and Kerala, Congress is expected to win 28-30 seats, 14 each from Karnataka and Kerala. BJP is only expected to win 15-17 seats. The other 3 seats are going to CPM. This means that the ‘K’ states are giving huge wins for UPA led by Congress.

Market Trade Setup 9th April #Nifty

BJP manifesto took the market down, down to 11550 zones and later recovered to cross 11600 mark and close above that. I was talking about Nifty going to 11580 levels yesterday if the manifesto is not liked by the market and it has happened. If a 11800 close yesterday would have catapult Nifty to 13000 by June, it has now taken away that possibility and we could now see a nervous move ahead and it might want another good news coming from anywhere before it starts to resume the journey again. Globally things were not so great and Dow closed 90 points lower on the forecast that Q1 results for the US are not likely to be in the expected range. Asia is flat to negative with both Japan and Hong Kong down 50 points each and only Singapore and Taiwan are in a mild positive zone.

Coming to domestics yesterday was a clash between BJP manifesto vs Congress’ NYAY. Where Congress focused on the bottom 5% of poor with 72,000 per annum cash transfer, BJP focused on populist schemes aimed at farmers. A slew of measures like a loan at zero interest, farm pensions and cash transfers are going to put pressure on the fiscal health and was not liked by the market that much. Added to this is the pressure coming from Brent crude with crossed 71 dollars now and trading at 71.1 dollars. Rupee also lost 45 paise yesterday and now has reached 69.67 per dollar and all the good work was done to bring it to 68.3 lost out in just 2-3 sessions. Nifty has 20 dma at 11470 mark and that is going to be strong support even if there is some fall happening today. So, we need to look at 20 dma carefully.

On the derivatives front, there was a different reaction in the futures and options market. While there was selling in the day but buying resumed by afternoon in the futures market, the options market has shown one-way traffic and that is the demand for the calls. That has brought down the Nifty put-call ratio from 1.61 to 1.50 and there was the closing of positions seen on many strikes on the put side. 11600 put has the highest open interest at 12.6 lakh while 11500 put also has 12.2 lakh open interest. This is very close so if 11560 doesn’t hold today then we can see Nifty going to 20 dma of 11470 mark. On the call side, 11700 call added 10.7 lakh positions yesterday and it has the highest open interest now at 21.6 lakh. so 11720 is a strong resistance for this week’s expiry. So, unless there is fundamental news, till Thursday expect Nifty to be in 11560-11720 range with a danger of Nifty slipping to 11470 on ant bad news.

What is the Nifty call for the day?
A flat Asia means we will also open in the flat zone between 11600-11620 mark and 11560 continues to be very strong support. Good news might take Nifty to 11680-11710 zones and if that happens, exit positions and book mild profits. Your positions are stuck for almost 3 days now and you need an exit route and let’s hope that this exit route comes today. If things turn to worse and Nifty corrects to 11500 mark, patiently, as things are looking more likely on the upside than on downside in the next 1-2 weeks. No fresh positions to be taken today. 

Market Trade Setup 8th April #Nifty

The crucial period of election finally begins. There was a pre-election rally for 4-5 weeks starting from the beginning of March on the news of possible victory for BJP. Now we have actually entered the 6 weeks of election period where at the end of every phase market will get some cues on the way things are going. Pre-election rally brought Nifty from 10800 to 11700 mark, which is a 900 point gain and will this 6 weeks add another 900 points to take it to the targeted 12500 mark needs to be seen. On the global front, things were flat on Friday with Dow Jones closing almost flat gaining 40 points. The good news coming in was the US jobs data which came better than expected figures and the impact will be shown today. Asia is green except Japan and Singapore which are in the mild red. Hong Kong is the best performing market with 150 point gain.

On the domestic front, the real election period starts this week with first phase polling happening on 11th April. But the more important news is the BJP manifesto which releases at 11 AM today and market will be carefully looking at it to see what would be BJP’s response to Congress promise of 72,000. If BJP doesn’t do anything that spoils the fiscal health but gives something to everyone, then we can see a big rally happening. In other news, this week also kick starts the crucial Q4 and annual results of companies and today is the starting day with Delta Corp coming with its Q4 numbers. The net sales are likely to be above 200 Cr and a PAT of 50 Cr plus. The bad news is from Brent Crude which crossed 70 dollars and now trading at 70.7 dollars. This could start putting pressure on India now.

On the derivatives front, this series is seeing an unusually high premium and this is bound to happen as weekly options were introduced which led to a spike in volumes and cost of holding also has gone up. Friday the Nifty futures premium surged to 90 points from 76 points as there was buying happening with the upward movement of Nifty. The overall long positions have now reached 71% and we are approaching a danger zone where there are fewer shorts and that could trigger a big fall on a slight correction as there are no shorts to be covered. On the options front, The Nifty put call ratio went up to 1.61 from 1.52. 11600 put added 14 lakh positions on Friday and now it has the highest open interest for this week’s expiry followed by 11500 put. On the call side, 11700 call added 3.5 lakh positions and it also has the highest open interest on call side followed by 12000 call. So, for this week’s expiry 11570-11760 are the markers on upside and downside. 

What is the Nifty call for the day?

A mixed Asia means we are also likely to open flat between 11650-11680 zone and till the manifesto comes out Nifty might not cross the 11680-11700 zone and market has kept 11700 and 12000 as the number one and number two in open interests. So, if there is positivity and this fundamental news of BJP manifesto breaks the 11760 barrier then we could start moving towards 11800 and above. But if that doesn’t happen then we might correct to 11600 zone and might find some support there. You already have a position taken around 11600-11630-11680 zone and wait for it to go to 11750 mark to exit the position. For today I suggest no trade and only wait for the position to reach a profitable position before going for new positions. 

Market Trade Setup 3rd April #Nifty

Yesterday markets went as per the predictions at every step. I said Nifty will take support at 11650 and will be facing resistance at 11720-11740 zone and close in the range. It turned out to be exactly the same. The moral of the story is, whenever the market gets predictable for many, it changes its texture. Are we in the consolidation phase that could change the texture of the market needs to be seen. Globally things look stable as US market consolidated a bit after a 300 point rally and ended 80 points in red. Asian markets also opened in the mildly red territory this morning but as the day is progressing, Asia is turning greener. So, we have Japan up 150 points and Hong Kong up 250 points and all the other Asian markets are also in green. Brent is now the reason for worry as it is almost approaching the psychological mark of 70 dollars, trading at 69.7 dollars now. Rupee, however, is on the downside is at 68.7 to a dollar now.
On the domestic front, the big news that came was the Supreme court judgement that struck down the April 12th circular issued by RBI. Now the companies need not be dragged to IBC on default of over 90 days and a loan will not be called as a stressed asset if there is a delay in the payment between 1 to 89 days. This is a major setback to RBI and when RBI is discussing monetary policy, we need to see how much impact it will have on their decision. On the monetary policy front, there is a 100% probability of rate cut with 80% chance for 25 bps cut and 20% chance of a 50 bps cut. Coming back to Supreme Court judgement, RBI now has only two options. One is to re-approach the SC with a review petition and the second is to come up with a fresh draft by dropping some controversial clauses that were added earlier. Apart from that we also had an election manifesto by Congress and it failed to build up the required buzz and ended as a 1-hour event.
On the derivatives front, there was a pick up in the long positions in Nifty Futures again and the long positions in Nifty Futures have jumped to 68% again. The premium is also healthy at 56 points and all this show some bullishness. On the options front, the Nifty put-call ratio went to 1.52 from 1.48 on the demand for short puts. 11700 put added maximum open interest yesterday of 4.2 lakh positions and thus 11700 put now has maximum open interest for tomorrow’s expiry indicating that 11660-11680 is very strong support. On the call side, 11900 call added the same 4.2 lakh positions and 11900 call is slightly ahead of 11800 call as the strike with maximum open interest. So, we now have a situation where today and tomorrow we can gravitate between 11680-11820 and if by chance we get a 50 bps rate cut then we can see Nifty going past 11880 mark. For monthly expiry however 11500 put and 12000 call have the highest open interest.

What is the Nifty call for the day?

Yesterday, you would have exited your positions for a 60-70 point profit and today we will have a positive start with Nifty opening in 11720-11740 range which is a strong resistance as of now. Are we going to see an all-time high today or immediately after the policy announcement at 11.45am tomorrow needs to be seen. Nifty has the resistance zone extending up to 11770 levels and till the time that is taken out decisively, we cannot move towards 11850 mark this series. Otherwise, this series expiry will be around 11800 mark. So, my call for the day would be, if you get a dip after the morning highs, you can get into another long position between 11680-11720 with 11760-11800

Lots of Action picking up on the Elections Front, Congress manifesto is the latest! #LokSabha2019

In just 3-4 days’ time, things have picked up real pace and the political parties are working hard to keep themselves ahead of their competitors. Comments and Critics are coming from every corner of the Country and even from outside the Country. Political parties are given their best at everything.

Latest news for the day is the Congress Party Manifesto for Lok Sabha Elections 2019. Talking from the Stock Market’s point of view, the manifesto didn’t hurt or make the Markets happy. Anyways, just a few more days for Indian Stock Market to give their final view on this Elections. 

Let’s then move on to the post for the day, Eastern Uttar Pradesh and the 40 seats.

Last post we had looked at the Western  Uttar Pradesh and the 40 seats where we saw that BJP is losing it badly by winning only 15 seats at best and SP+BSP is possibly winning 25 seats. Congress unfortunately will be a mere spectator. Coming to the Easter Uttar Pradesh, the 40 seats here are much more important than the 40 of Western UP. There are multiple reasons for this.

  1. Regions like Avadh, Purvanchal, Bundelkhand and Bagelkhand are part of this Eastern Uttar Pradesh.
  2. BJP’s and Congress Top Leaders are fighting the elections from this Region.
  3. Most of the Prime Minister’s of India all hailed from Eastern Uttar Pradesh.

Moving ahead and going into the details, the regions Avadh and Purvanchal are the largest regions in Eastern UP. Apart from the above-mentioned points, a crucial point for this being important region is because Eastern UP is diverse yet backward, Agrarian and got many more issues to deal with. The involvement of people into Agri based activities has put this region into the least developed regions of the UP. That’s how Eastern UP is more backward than Western UP.

Avadh has got the development problem which has got Jobs & Education as major problems. Purvanchal is having a problem of farm distress. Any Agri fail in this region pushes people into poverty. Bundelkhand is a tribal region where as Bagelkhand is a Muslim and ST/SC dominated area.

Yet, it is diverse as it has got bigger seats like Lucknow, Raie Bareli, Amethi. Three seats which have got so much of history and have been giving us National Leaders.

Let’s look at the Prime Ministers hailing from Uttar Pradesh
  1. Jawahar Lal Nehru
  2. Lal Bahadur Shastri
  3. Indira Gandhi
  4. Charan Singh
  5. Rajiv Gandhi
  6. VP Singh
  7. Chandrashekar
  8. Atal Bihari Vajpayee
  9. Narendra Modi

Party wise Rajnath Singh from Lucknow, Smriti Irani from Amethi, Yogi Aditya Nath from Gorakhpur and Narendra Modi from Varanasi are the top leaders.

BJP wants to make sure that they will win at least 25 seats. But then they do have hurdles, Dalit and Muslim population in this regions comes to an average of 15 to 25% which will give a positive edge to SP+BSP. Still, the word of mouth seems to be giving BJP a thumbs up and a better performance in Eastern UP when compared to Western UP.

This is majorly because of the works that have been done by BJP party and as well the factor of religion which is higher. These reasons are making BJP hope for 25-30 seats in Eastern UP. If this happens, then BJP would touch 50/80. Adding to their advantage is the Priyanka Gandhi factor which will work against SP+BSP.

So if BJP is expected to win 25-30 seats. Other parties are going to take the rest 40 seats. Congress will be able to take 3-4 seats as their best performance. Worst performance could be winning only 1 seat and that is Raei Bareli. Amethi is slipping out of the hands of Congress, thanks to Rahul Gandhi. His decision of contesting from Wayanad has completely gone against Congress and above that Rahul Gandhi adopted a village in Amethi. Where the people are complaining about no proper roads and no schools. This is how the present scenario of Uttar Pradesh looks like.

Overall we can see that if things go like this BJP is winning 50 seats, SP+BSP will win 25 seats and Congress might win a maximum of 5 seats.

Will BJP Win Uttar Pradesh in Lok Sabha? Battle in Western UP #LOKSABHA2019

Right then, I am today going to look at the highest populated state in the Country which is also the State with highest no of seats. Uttar Pradesh has got 80 Lok Sabha seats which are 14.6% of overall seats in India. Being the largest state it’s not easy or rather not right to restrict it to one post, that’s why Uttar Pradesh will be discussed in two posts dividing it into Western Uttar Pradesh and Eastern Uttar Pradesh.

Both Western and Eastern Uttar Pradesh has got 40 seats each. Places like Mathura, Agra, Noida, Dadri, Muzaffarnagar come under the Western UP and places like Lucknow, Kanpur, Varanasi and Prayagraj come under Eastern UP. Looking at it from district wise, there are 75 districts and 80 seats which means for every district UP has got minimum 1 seat.

In today’s post, we would look at the Western Part of UP which is influenced by North Indian Culture. For info, Eastern part of UP is influenced by Bihari related factors.

Politically, entire UP is divided into 5 regions and they are:
  • 1. Braj
  • 2. Bundelkhand
  • 3. Avadh
  • 4. Purvanchal
  • 5. Bagelkhand
Parliament Seats in Uttar Pradesh 2019

These are the 5 regions of UP. Western Part of UP covers Braj which is the biggest one of all the 5 which is called also Vrindavan. Today, we are going to look at all the seats of Braj and part of Bundelkhand.

Historically, UP has been voting for the Congress till 1977 since Independence. In 1977 UP voted Janata party to power which stayed till 1980. Things changed again when Congress was voted back to power from 1980 and continued till 1989, in the year 1985 – Congress won 84 out of 85 available seats (Uttarakhand 5 seats). Till then Congress was winning with a good majority, but things got changed with the issue of Ram Jhanma Bhoomi coming up. This meant that the voters were divided on the basis of religion and caste. This helped BJP win the elections and as UP got divided in the name of caste and religion. Let’s look at the 5 major parties in Uttar Pradesh.

  • 1. BJP – Bharatiya Janata party (Brahmins, Kshetriyas, Vysyas, OBCs)
  • 2. INC – Indian National Congress (OBCs and Muslims)
  • 3. SP – Samajwadi party (Muslims and Yadavs)
  • 4. BSP – Bahujan Samajwadi party (Dalits)5. RLD – Rashtriya Lok Dal (Jats)
How are the Elections 2019 going to be?

When we look at the party-wise support, BJP is the party for Hindus, Congress is the party for Muslims, BSP is the party for SC, SP is the party for Muslims and Yadav. Here, each party is recognised with one religion or one community based on their maximum vote share in the past.

Looking at the demographics of Uttar Pradesh community wise.

  • a. OBCs – 40%
  • b. Dalits – 21%
  • c. Forward Caste – 23%
  • d. Muslims – 19%

Some more points: OBC is divided between BJP, SP and Congress. Dalits completely back BSP and 19% Muslims will majorly back SP. So just going by the arithmetic, if both SP and BSP come together then the voter share of both the parties will easily get to 40%. This is a danger that ruling BJP is aware of and are trying everything possible to make some inroads. Last time in 2014, BJP won 73 seats out of 80 seats which were possible only because the contest was quadrangular. Thus it’s visible how important it is for a party to grab the vote shares of other communities in the state which has got Caste based voters.

Those leaders who matter the most this Lok Sabha Elections!

Going little more deeper in the data, there are 13 seats of the 40 Western UP seats where the Muslims vote share is more than the average of 19% and there are 10 seats which have a Dalit population which is more than average of 21%. Just think if these seats go completely in favour of SP+BSP+RLD alliance then they would take easily 23 seats. So, I would predict SP+BSP+RLD to win seats in the range of 20-25 and BJP to win the remaining 15-20 seats. Next week Tuesday, I will come up with the Eastern UP Seats and the updates on the issues that affect the voter in UP.

Elections mood – South India twin States: Andhra Pradesh & Telangana #LOKSabha2019

Today the talking point is not one but two states and both are the South Indian states. For the first time, these states will hold Lok Sabha elections as separate states. It’s the Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. Andhra Pradesh before bifurcation was the third joint highest seat state with West Bengal. After the division though Andhra got 25 seats and Telangana got 17 seats which total to 42 seats.

Fact Check: The total no of registered voters in Andhra are 3.69cr which is compared to 3.68cr in 2014. Whereas smaller state Telangana has got 2.8cr voters . So almost we have got 6.5 crore people voting in this Lok Sabha elections 2019.

Andhra Pradesh:

Andhra Pradesh is also going for Assembly elections along with the Lok Sabha elections. With both State and Central elections falling on the same day, and for many other reasons the Andhra Pradesh elections are much more exciting than the Telangana Elections. If we look at the contest, in Andhra this is going to be a 5 cornered contest. We have Telugu Desam Party (TDP), YSR Congress Party (YSRCP), Jana Sena+BSP+CPI+CPM, Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) and Congress (INC).  


Off the 5 parties, Jana Sena is the newly entrant party which is mostly dominated by the Kapu community, Pawan Kalyan the party founder was clever to bring coalition with left parties like CPI + CPM and also the Dalit party.

There is nothing to talk about the Congress as the Congress is completely non-existent and are in complete tough position. Same goes with the BJP who are not existent but are eager for the fighting every seat.  

When we look at the leaders from parties: TDP has got lot of experienced people like Ram Mohan Naidu from Srikakulam. Ashok Gajapati Vijayanagngram and  Surya Bhaskar reddy from Kurnool.

The opposition party has got two leaders who are the relatives of Jagan Mohan Reddy and they are Avinash reddy from Cuddapah, Mithun reddy from Rajampet.

Thus the fight for Lok Sabha 2019 in Andhra will be fought by 3 parties majorly. Congress and BJP might not win even a single seat. YSRCP and TDP will be the parties who will win the most. The point here is the entry of Jana Sena party has started to hurt TDP. That’s because the voters of TDP also fall under the category of Kappu.

Now let’s look at the most easiest State to estimate the results: Telangana

Firstly TRS has got no opponents who are strong enough to defeat KCR and his party in any seat. After the assembly elections the wave has proven the amount of support he has got from the people of Telangana. As expected TDP is not contesting the Telangana Elections. But Congress has decided that they will still fight and not give up. They have got people who have the ability to win in Telangana.  Madhu Yashki goud from Nizamabad, Revanth reddy from Malkajgiri, Uttam Kumar reddy from Nalagonda and many more good leaders are fighting for Congress.  

TRS will ride on their big leaders and as well as on the Party’s and KCR wave. But the one seat which is definitely in hands of KCR is the Nizamabad where Kavitha is contesting.  The one which BJP will hope to win is the Secunderabad seat which is gone to Kishan reddy.

If the magic of KCR is still working, TRS will win 14-15 seats, Congress might win 1-2. This would mean it is going to be a complete sweep.

Now,  Andhra Pradesh and Telangana have got 42 seats and we have a completely new National alliance which includes AP and Telangana and that’s called as Federal Front. Federal front has got TRRS and YSRCP as members. Going by the figures it’s possible that Federal Front will win almost near to 35 seats.

Till now we have looked at Four different states from four sides of the Country. Maharashtra is in the favour of NDA, Tamil Nadu will be held by DMK+Congress, West Bengal will be once again swept by TMC which is the Third Front and AP+Telangana will be swept by Federal Front. Things are turning really interesting!!

All about the Mood of Maharashtra in this Maha Elections #LokSabha #Elections2019

India’s biggest State in terms of GDP and the state that every Indian dream to visit and fulfil their dreams ‘Maharashtra’ will go for elections in the month of April. People of Maharashtra will vote in the four phases from 11th April to 29th April.

There are 288 seats in Maharashtra Assembly where a party will need 145 seats for a majority. Coming to Lok Sabha, Maharashtra has 48 seats. Maharashtra is the second largest state in terms of Lok Sabha after Uttar Pradesh which has got 80 seats. The third is West Bengal with 42 seats and fourth is Bihar with 40 seats.

First, let’s look at the 4 regions:
Maharashtra Assembly Constituencies Map

1. Konkan & Goa Region – Coastal region on Maharashtra

2. Madhya Maharashtra – Entire belt after Pune

3. Marathwada- North and South of Maharashtra adjacent to Madhya Maharashtra

4. Vidarbha – Eastern Maharashtra bordering to Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. Nagpur is the capital of this region and comparable the backward regions of all.

Let’s look at the dates and seats phase-phase:

• April 11th – Vidarbha 7 seats

• April 18th – Most of Marathwada 10 seats

• April 23rd – Konkan & Goa 14 seats

• April 29th – Northern part of Marathwada 17 seats

Not to forget the big city in the country, Mumbai will be going for polls in the 4th phase and it has got 8 seats.

1. Kalyan (Outskirts)

2. Thane (Outskirts)

3. Mumbai North

4. Mumbai Northwest

5. Mumbai Northeast

6. Mumbai North Central

7. Mumbai South Central

8. Mumbai South

Source: Latestly

Fact check:

There are totally 8.73 crore registered voters of which there are 21 lakh first-time voters. Off 94,473 polling areas, 55,814 are rural areas and 39659 are urban polling booths.

The Big Fight: 2019 Lok Sabha polls

Maharashtra has 4 big parties, Shivsena, BJP, Congress and NCP. Shivasena was started by Balasaheb Thackeray in the early 1960s and he is the sole reason for many changes in Maharashtra. NCP was started by Sharad Pawar in 1996 after coming out of Congress. The irony is he is now with the same congress as an ally which he left 25 years ago. Though there are 4 parties it is always 2 cornered fight in the Elections. BJP is aligned with Shiva Sena and Congress is aligned with NCP. Till 2009 Cong-NCP dominated in most of the elections and they held power in the state for 15 years from 1999-2014.

Things though changed in 2014 when Maharashtra went all to BJP+Shiva Sena. BJP+SS won as many as 41 seats out of 48 seats, in which BJP won 23 and Shiva Sena took 18. Rest went for 4 NCP and 2 to Congress and the 1 went to the local party which in some days joined BJP.

That’s the strength BJP has grown to in Maharashtra. Lately, there have been differences in Shiva Sena and BJP. But, at the right moment, BJP and Shiv Sena have come together and announced their alliance. Adding to Congress woes, a lot of people walked out from Congress citing the reasons for unhappiness with the performance of Congress. Shocking is that the Leader of opposition Radha Krishna Vikhe Patil who was projected to be as CM if INC won in 2014 also joined BJP. First, it was his son over the disappointment of not getting Ahmed Nagar seat which was given to NCP. Next morning even the father left the party to join BJP. This proves that the alignment is not good and the condition of Congress with NCP is really bad.

This is how the story is getting unfolded in Maharashtra. Finally, an opinion poll by India Today and Karvy says that the BJP and Shiva Sena coalition will win 42 seats which are one seat more than last time. This will mean that the ruling BJP and Shiv Sena will sweep Maharashtra. Let’s wait and watch for the polls and then the counting on May 23rd!