Tag Archives: Elections

Predictions for Assembly Elections 2018 #India #Elections

This is neither an exit poll nor an opinion poll. It was not done by taking any sample or meeting any voters on the ground. We have taken the data from the past, observed the trends of voting and percentage of votes at the first level. Then we looked at the candidates contesting, which party they belonged to before, as the second level. Then the third level is the campaigning done by top leaders of BJP and Congress and how they were able to swing the voters. All these are based on my observations and from the news reports.

The methodology adopted for each state is different and it is as follows

1. Telangana: We have only one election ie 2014 data which is relevant as the state was carved out from AP in 2014 and the political equations before were very different and hence irrelevant. Here we looked at every constituency and the votes polled for TRS and compared it with INC-TDP. We have not just taken a mathematical value but we based it on how many votes of TDP can be perceptually transferred to the Congress. For every constituency it is different. We have also taken into the note of the fact that the desertions that happened in TDP, INC and YSRCP and all of them went to TRS and how it can impact on the ground level. Many were given tickets in this elections also. So, we looked at the winnability of a candidate from that angle also. and projected individually for all the 119 seats.  

2. Chhattisgarh: Here also we have gone constituency wise and we looked at the 2008 and 2013 elections and their results and the candidates who have been changed and the candidates who were kept constant. We also looked at the possible impact that BSP-Ajit Jogi combine will have on the elections and have come up with the forecast for the 90 seats. 

3. Madhya Pradesh: Here we have gone region wise. We have divided Madhya Pradesh into 5 regions of Malwa, Bhopal, Mahakaushal, Vindhya Pradesh and Chambal and we have subdivided these 5 regions based on the 52 districts in MP. We looked at the data of 2008 and 2013 elections and have assumed and made projections on the fact that if there is a uniform 7% swing against BJP in this election from the 45% vote they got in 2013 what will happen to each region. We have averaged 2008 and 2013 and on that average, we took a 7% swing to project for the 230 seats.

4. Rajasthan: This is the toughest as no party got elected twice. so, taking 2008 and 2013 won’t be sufficient. So we went back and took 1998, 2003, 2008 and 2013 data which has 2 congress wins and 2 BJP wins and projected for 2018. We have divided Rajasthan into 7 regions of Bikaner, Shekhawati, Hadoti, Vagad, Mewar, Marwar and Dhundhar. There were many factors like Rajput anger on BJP, Anger against Vasundhara but positive perception of Modi, traditional BJP and INC strongholds that were considered. Like MP, for Rajasthan also we have gone for district wise predictions for all the 7 regions covering the 200 seats. 

All this was done for an educational purpose and by combining analytics with ground level incidents and not taking any voter opinion. So, the accuracy entirely depends on how well we were able to capture the mood of the past voter and mixed with the present political dynamics and project the voting trends and converting them into seats.

Market Setup 7th December #NIFTY

Market Setup 7th December

The Weekend is here for the first week of December and what a forgettable week this has been! Dow Jones has fallen another 800 points and from there it recovered to close just 80 points in red. That 700 points plus recovery on US markets has sent a positive global signal. Fed’s statement that it will wait and watch before going in for rate hikes has pushed the sentiment. Asian markets have recovered and have come to the positive territory wit Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and China in mild green. The Dollar also has weakened a bit and Brent Crude also has fallen below 60 dollars again and now trading at 59.1 dollars per barrel. 

Coming to domestics, today is the day of elections in two crucial states of Rajasthan and Telangana. BJP started as a big loser in Rajasthan and 3 months ago everyone was talking 130 plus seats for Congress and from there, things have dramatically changed. Rajasthan today has become as unpredictable as Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Telangana also has from a position of a cake walk to KCR has turned itself into a heated battle between KCR and Mahakootami. The market will get the feel of the sentiment by 2 PM today and we can see it getting reflected. Added to this is the exit poll results which will come today after market hours and that will lift some suspense from the results. 

Coming to derivatives, yesterday also saw huge selling in the Futures market and the overall long positions in Nifty futures has come down to 56% from 57% and this is the lowest in the series. On the options front, the Nifty put-call ratio plunged to 1.44 from 1.63 seen at the beginning of the day. Lots of put positions taken on the long side were unwound and a lot of short positions in the calls was also taken. 11000 call has added 13.1 lakh positions, 10700call added 9.9 lakh positions and 10900 call added 4.8 lakh positions. On the put side, 10500 put saw 5 lakh positions taken out. 10900 put saw 3.9 lakh positions taken out. 10000 on put side and 11000 on call side still continue to have highest open interest. 10200 and 10500 puts are close and might add some open interest today. 

What is the Nifty call for the day?

Finally the fall seems to have come to an end. We did nothing but watching it. One has to understand that stock trading is all about waiting patiently when unforeseen things happen, try to come out of it without panic. Global growth scare came from nowhere and took away 300 points from Nifty. Today we will recover some of it if other things go fine. Today Nifty will open gap up between 10660-10690 levels and 10750 is very much a possibility today on an intraday basis. If the sentiment in Rajasthan goes fine we can even see a close at 10750 levels. So, the losses that you made will be cut down drastically today. Hope for the best and wait for the next week when the actual results will be out!

Market Trade Setup 19th November #NIFTY

Market Trade Setup 19th November

As we enter the 4th-week good tidings seem to be on its way. I was suggesting caution for last two days as Nifty has to cross 10650-10680 zone to move further up. If you have observed Friday closed with Nifty above 10680 and it gives some indication that Nifty has finally overcome the trading band of 10400-10650 zone. There is an important 200dma at 10750 and if that is crossed then 11000 is on its way. So, one more small hurdle in the form of 10750 is remaining before it goes upward. The global markets are doing good with Dow closing 130 points up on Friday and today all the Asian markets are in green indicating that there is nothing negative for India at the start.

Coming to domestics, this is where some caution is required. There is a crucial RBI board meeting scheduled today and point also is, its an internal RBI meeting and it’s not obligatory that the details of the meeting should be made public. So, a lot of rumors can float and if the meeting goes bad and if there are any resignations then that will have an adverse impact on the market. This meeting will touch upon the issue of liquidity. Govt wants more liquidity in the market, that is more money to make available to the public but RBI wants to target keeping inflation low by controlling liquidity flow. This divergence in stand has reached a flash point now and things might get ugly if one of them don’t soften their stand. So, let’s see what emerges in RBI today.

On the derivatives front, we are into the 4th week in November but the overall long positions in the Futures market are at 39% and this is a cause of some worry. As Nifty is going up the long positions are not going up. so, this might trigger sharp short covering up-moves but it can also see fresh shorting leading to sharp downward moves. So, all this presents a scenario for a volatile move in the next 9 trading days. On the options front, the Nifty put-call ratio is also at 1.64 vs 1.61 seen at the beginning of Friday. This means we are approaching the exhaustion zone of 1.70 which will make put shorting unviable and slowly the demand will start moving towards calls which is possible only when the market corrects. Friday has changed the roof of the market from 11000 to 10800. Now 10800 call has highest open interest and at 60 rupees 10860 for now is the highest point for the market. On the put side 10000 still has the highest open interest.

What is the Nifty call for the day?

A green Asia will ensure a 10700 plus opening for us, in the range of 10720 level and what happens after that needs to be seen. 10750 is the 200-day moving average and we might encounter a resistance there and with so many events its difficult for the market to cross that unless Europe opens positive and RBI doesn’t come as a big negative. In that case, Nifty will move toward 10780. Otherwise, the 10650-10750 will be the range for the day and in that situation I suggest you to observe for RBI meet closely and see how Europe opens. If you get a dip to 10700 levels and if Nifty stays above 10680 then take a long position with 10750-10780 as the target. You can see that there are a lot of conditions for the trade today, so trade carefully watching every move.

Indian General Elections Predictions 2019 – Mid Year Predictions – #LokSabha2019

BJP will not win a majority, but nobody else other than BJP can form a Govt in 2019!

Hello Everyone. Tuesday is here and I am back with my final post on 2019 Elections Predictions. I have in my last 4 posts on elections predicted the seats that the parties are going to win in the coming 2019 elections. We have seen that it is BJP which is ahead but not enough to win the elections on their own capacity. Apart from this there are few more very important points to be considered which are crucial. Standing on today as per the present situations my predictions are given below:

NDA = 289, UPA = 104, Third Front = 90 and Fourth Front = 60!

NDA
  1. BJP                         240
  2. JDU(Bihar) 19
  3. Shiv Sena             16
  4. Others                  14
UPA
  1. INC                        78
  2. DMK                     5
  3. RJD                       8
  4. NCP                      4
  5. Others                 9
Third Front
  1. TDP                       8
  2. Kamal Haasan    6
  3. CPI/CPM              8
  4. TMC                      30
  5. SP+BSP                 32
  6. Others                 6
Fourth Front
  1. TRS                       10
  2. YSRCP                   13
  3. Rajinikanth         19
  4. BJD                       16
  5. Others                 2

So, it is wrong to assume that all the Non-NDA and Non-UPA parties are in the third front. You also should understand that there is a Fourth Front which is opposite to the third front and cannot align with the third front. So, if UPA aligns with third front, it won’t get the support of fourth front. For example, TRS cannot align with congress because it is directly fighting Congress in Telangana. Similarly, TDP cannot align with YSRCP because they are fighting each other in AP. That presents me with 5 takeaways from the predictions I made in last 4 weeks.

  1. BJP is all set(?) with the help of its allies to retain the power in 2019!

BJP is sitting on 240 seats and by adding the seats of its allies the tally goes to 289. Which means there are 49 seats which are coming from its allies. BJP last time had 282 seats and this time they are at 240 seats and that’s fall of 42 seats. The two parties with maximum support to BJP are Shiv Sena and JDU in Bihar. These are the two parties which may change their minds at the eleventh hour. Though it’s not alarming news for BJP its surely a call to do something big to come back to power on its own. Because we never know in politics who jumps the castle.

  1. Third Front is not as strong as we think because we have Fourth Front which got emerged from third front!

Not very long ago there were articles written and posted on the birth of ‘Third Front’ which as per a class of journalists would form the next Government of India. So to put this argument to an end, my predictions give Third Front just 90 seats. That’s not even 1/3rd. If we add congress seats to Third front the tally goes to 194. That is nothing close to majority. The Fourth Front is the actual new born baby because there was a cold war between parties of third front and that lead to unofficial withdrawal. That has brought fourth front into scene which may not support BJP directly but give outside support if needed. So 60 seats are huge number and let’s remember that a coalition made out of 10 parties can never rule country!

  1. BJP is losing seats in Northern India and Western India but it is picking up seats in Southern and Eastern India.

BJP overall has 240 seats which looks to be a good number, but when you look into the statistics you will know that BJP is losing in the strong holds like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Maharashtra. Each state there is fall of average 30% fall in the seats won compared to 2014. But the good news being the BJP’s has strengthened in Eastern India and Southern India. Though there is gain in south and east the gain is not good enough to beat the fall in west and north India.

  1. This is perfect battle because the BJP’s Loss is INC’s gain!

If we see BJP is losing 42 seats from its 2014 tally of 282 and INC is winning 34 seats more than what it won in 2014. It shows how nicely INC is able to hit the areas where BJP is losing. We can even conclude that these numbers were won by BJP in 2014 majorly because of Modi wave. The loss of 40 seats is not big in a General election but it’s the pick that matters. That’s where Congress is doing really well to pick up the seats which BJP is losing.

  1. Will BJP form the Govt or Will the Karnataka Scenario hit the Nation in the month of May 2019?

Yes, BJP has 240 seats and its alliance combined takes it to 289 which is 15 seats more than the Majority mark. But the big worries for BJP are coming from Nitish Kumar of JDU whose 19 seats could cost them the majority.  Shiv Sena which is somehow dissatisfied with BJP and if Shiv sena moves out then NDA seats will fall further to 254. That will also mean UPA+Third Front tally will go to 194+16+19=229.  If leaders like Mamta Banerjee, then somehow manage to get KCR and Naveen Patnaik on board to support from outside then that 229 gets another 26 seats which takes their total to 255.

So now we are at NDA 254 and UPA+ThirdFront+JDU+Shivsena+BJD+TRS at 255. The climax then shifts to Tamilnadu where Thalaiva Rajnikanth is expected to win 19 seats. Whoever gets those 19 will cross that magical figure of 272!!

Knowing Rajnikanth well, it’s not tough to say that he will throw his weight behind Modi than behind Congress or Kamal Hassan.

So, final conclusion is that as per the present situations if elections are conducted, it is clear that BJP will win the 2019 elections in any conditions until or unless there is drastic change in the political scenario! Hope you liked this five-part series of mid-year 2018 predictions!!!

General Elections 2019! Mid Year Predictions – Northern Region #LokSabha2019

Lok Sabha Elections 2019 Predictions – Northern Region 

So I am back with the Elections Predictions on this Tuesday. The journey of predicting for the General Elections 2019 which started on 29th May is going to complete the region wise picture today and next week will be the All India picture. When we last visited election predictions and stopped with Western India Predictions, NDA was sitting at 214 seats and UPA at 203 seats with 126 seats left. Today you will know who will be the people’s choice in 2019 elections. But just few words before talking about the North Indian states, this predictions thing has seriously helped me in understanding the politics in the country. Someone who had restricted himself to Telangana, now has good knowledge on almost all the states.

Fine, so coming to the Northern Indian region of India. We have 7 states and Chandigarh here with 126 seats. Out of the 126 seats it’s the Uttar Pradesh which takes 2/3rds with 80 seats and rest 46 divided between other states. Let’s see if UPA is going to do any harm to NDA or will NDA retain the power in 2019!

  1. Uttar Pradesh: The Big State with 80 seats which was the jackpot for BJP in last elections is looking to be a disappointment this time. 2014 saw BJP winning as many as 73 seats and SP+BSP put together winning only 7 seats. This was a huge victory for BJP. This time though BJP will have to taste the bitterness as the predictions show that BJP will fall to 48 and SP+BSP alliance is looking to come back strong and win 32 seats. It is only in Paschim Pradesh or Western UP where BJP is kind of sweeping with 19 out of 28 but not as good as 2014 where it had won 25 seats. Avadh the minority dominated region and a strong hold of SP will be setback as BJP which won 11 last time out of 14 is now dropping to 6. Purvanchal is yet another disappointment for BJP, in the 2014 elections BJP has won 31 out of 32 and this time they are falling to 19 seats. It’s a victory for SP+BSP as they are jumping from 1 seat to 13 seats. And from the last region of 6 seats Bundelkhand BJP is losing 2 seats compared to 6 they won last time. Big point is I am expecting Rahul Gandhi to lose the election to Smriti Irani from Amethi.
  2. Jammu and Kashmir: To the top most state of the Country, in the last elections BJP was in alliance with PDP and it was a great move as they went on to win all the 6 seats. PDP won 3 from Kashmir region which has about 98% Muslim population, BJP won 2 seats in Jammu and 1 seat from Ladakh. We know that the alliance is no more in place and BJP will not and cannot win anything in Kashmir so straight they will fall to 2 as Ladakh is also looking difficult for BJP.
  3. Punjab: The only state where Congress is in power after 2014 elections. Akali Dal and BJP lost the assembly elections badly and Congress came back to the power in 2017. This will really effect the BJP+SAD and their numbers will drop to just 5 out of 13 seats. AAP has lost all its value and will not win anything. INC will gain majorly and will be up from 3 last time to 8 seats now.
  4. Delhi & Chandigarh: The capital has got 7 seats and BJP had clean swept all the 7 seats in the last elections. This time though due to some political problems and anti-incumbency will make way for Congress. Expecting BJP to lose 2 seats and might win 5 seats. From Chandigarh the only seat will go to Kirron Kher from BJP. Congress might win the remaining 2 seats in Delhi.
  5. Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh: Two states which are Pro BJP and I am not seeing any trouble for BJP. Both together there are 9 seats, Uttarakhand 5 and Himachal Pradesh 4. In 2014 BJP won all the 9, expecting BJP to do the same in 2019.
  6. Haryana: Another state which has the feeling of anti-incumbency and it will hurt BJP. Last time BJP has won 7 seats out of 10. This time with the fall of 2 seats BJP will retain 5 seats. It is the Indian National Lok Dal which is going to gain more due to the political issues in the state.

These are the predictions for the Northern Indian region and the race of prediction for the regions has come to an end. My predictions for the Northern India gives BJP 75 seats, INC 12 seats and others at 39 seats. Which takes the tally of BJP or NDA to 289, UPA to 95 and others to 159. With no confirmations on who will join whom and whether the present coalition parties will stay or not these numbers still look dangerous even though NDA might cross the majority mark. BJP+Allies as of now are at 289 without adding any support from South Indian states. In my South India predictions, we have seen Rajinikanth winning good numbers. There is always chance of parties jumping here and there.

Next week will be my concluding post where I will give you state by state figures for all the states and also will tell you how many seats BJP alone can win. Will it be less than 272, then how much less it will be and who are the partners it can bank upon. Wait for the concluding post on 3rd July, you will surely find it interesting!

Market Setup 15th May

Markets and News
Finally, the D day has come. The big fundamental of the year so far is here. After the Gujarat election last December we are all eagerly awaiting the Karnataka poll result that can have a huge impact on National election. So, global cues take a back seat today and the trend emerging will drive the market initially. The first trends are expected by 8.30am and by the time market opens, we will have some initial trends to react to. The clear trend will emerge post 10am and if its a hung assembly then suspense will be extended till afternoon.
Added to that we also had the domestic fundamentals like CPI data that has come in at 4.58% vs expected 4.3%. Surprisingly the food and fuel inflation is under control but what is not under control is the services sector inflation which came in at 5.9% vs 5.2% seen previous month. In normal terms it means that the demand for houses, loans, education, entertainment etc is increasing and this is called as demand driven inflation. It is good to have such inflation but the worry is it should not spiral out of control. Brent crude is at 78.2 dollars which should worry.
Q4 Results
On the Q4 results front, HUL came up with fantastic results with double digit volume growth. Following are the Q4 results expected today.
1. Britannia
2. Crompton
3. Dhanlakshmi Bank
4. Karnataka bank
5. Lupin
6. MRPL
7. Punjab National Bank
8. Snowman logistics
9. Syndicate Bank
10. Texmaco Rail
Derivatives Action
On the derivatives front, lot of long positions have been taken yesterday itself. But there is also a worry about BJP’s chances and that is casting bit of a worry. The options data is looking moving towards calls as Nifty put call ratio came down to 1.64 from 1.67. 10500, 10600, 10700 and 10800 puts are adding open interest while 10900, 11000 and 11200 calls are also adding open interest.
What is the Nifty and bank Nifty call for the day?
If you still have long positions and if Nifty goes up, exit at a high and book profits and sit and watch the Karnataka results. No problem in waiting for a day before sitting back and taking positions

Rajya Sabha – Upper House of the Indian Parliament and its Election Process

Rajya Sabha – Upper House of the Indian Parliament

Today I am going to talk about Rajya Sabha elections that’s going to happen in 10 days times for 58 seats. The last time we had Rajya Sabha elections, I was awake till 2AM in the night to see if BJP could defeat Congress party’s big nominee Ahmed Patel in Gujarat. There was so much drama that unfolded and finally Congress won narrowly.

Writing about Rajya Sabha election makes me feel that I am going back to my Social Studies text book and to my School Days. Rajya Sabha as we all know is the upper house of the Parliament which plays significant role in the three pillars of the democracy which are executive, judiciary and legislature. Rajya Sabha though is a house with maximum of 250 members as per our constitution but at present as per our law we have 245 members.

Out of 245, 233 Rajya Sabha members are elected by the elected representatives. Here the elected representatives are the Members of State Legislative Assembly. The remaining 12 are the nominated by President for their contributions to art, culture, science and social services. Presently few nominated people that we know are Sachin Tendulkar (Social Service), Subramaniam Swamy (Economics), Mary Kom (Sport) and Rekha (Art).

The major difference in both the houses of parliament is the longevity. Lok Sabha the lower house of the parliament gets dissolved every 5 years where as Rajya Sabha is perpetual and lasts for ever. Lok Sabha members get re-elected every term of 5 years where as Rajya Sabha elections happen every 2 years where 1/3rd of its total gets retired and are filled up through elections. Member of Rajya Sabha hold the seat for 6 years compared to Lok Sabha member for 5 years.

Following are the list of seats for each state and union territory. Off all the States Uttar Pradesh has the highest number of seats with 31 followed by Maharashtra (19) and Tamil Nadu (18).

Name of state and union territory           No. of Seats

Andhra Pradesh                                              11

Arunachal Pradesh                                         1

Assam                                                               7

Bihar                                                                  16

Chhattisgarh                                                    5

Goa                                                                    1

Gujarat                                                              11

Haryana                                                            5

Himachal Pradesh                                          3

Jammu & Kashmir                                          4

Jharkhand                                                         6

Karnataka                                                         12

Kerala                                                                9

Madhya Pradesh                                            11

Maharashtra                                                    19

Manipur                                                            1

Meghalaya                                                       1

Mizoram                                                           1

Nagaland                                                          1

National Capital Territory of Delhi             3

Odisha                                                               10

Puducherry                                                       1

Punjab                                                               7

Rajasthan                                                         10

Sikkim                                                                1

Tamil Nadu                                                      18

Telangana                                                        7

Tripura                                                              1

Uttar Pradesh                                                  31

Uttarakhand                                                    3

West Bengal                                                    16

Nominated                                                       12

Total                                                                  245

 

How are these Rajya Sabha members elected?

Let me take a situation and explain this. For example, if we take Uttar Pradesh it has total 31 seats and in the coming election the 1/3rd of its composition is up for re-election that is 10 seats. The Uttar Pradesh legislative assembly strength is 404. Out of which BJP and its alliance have 324 and opposition has only 78.

Now for the calculations!

The 404 seats are taken and divided by the number of seats to be filled up +1. It’s like this 404/10+1. That is 404/11= 36.72. So, to elect member of Rajya Sabha from Uttar Pradesh he/she needs to get 37 votes. With 324 seats in their pocket BJP will win 8 seats without any problem and opposition will win 2. This is the case in Uttar Pradesh, I would not want to get into the games and strategies that are getting developed. I will deal with them in my next Tuesday post. That would have all the political game plans. So, the election day of 23 becomes very crucial to see if BJP will win 8+ or opposition takes away 2.

Let’s take another example of our home state of Telangana, it has got 119 legislative assembly seats and total of 7 Rajya Sabha seats. Number of seats up for election are 3. TRS has got 90 MLA seats and opposition has 29 including BJP 5, MIM 7 and INC 13. The calculation here goes like this 119/3+1. That is 119/4=29.75. So, to elect a member of Rajya Sabha from Telangana State he/she require 30 seats. With TRS having 90 seats they will clean sweep all the 3 seats and increase their strength in Rajya Sabha. So, the entire opposition cannot win a single seat also.

This is how the Election process happens in Rajya Sabha. Very different one from what we generally see and practice. Rajya Sabha has its own importance in Nation Building. In my next post that is on 20th March I will write the Preview and Predictions for Rajya Sabha Elections which are scheduled to reelect 58 seats. Before that juicy post this is a post that will refresh your understanding of Rajya Sabha elections. Hope you liked it!

Predictions for 2019 Elections – Will Modi and NDA hit Brace?

General Elections 2019 – Will Modi retain the throne?

Even after 3 years Modi is still maintaining his magic and BJP and NDA are way ahead of Congress and UPA. This week am going to give the projected figures for BJP and NDA if elections are held in 2019 as things stand now. I have done this survey purely on the past data and have put seats on the vote percentages based on bye elections in various states and state assembly elections after 2014. The results show that BJP which got 282 on its own in 2014 might drop a bit and might get between 276-278 seats which still above the majority mark of 272.

BJP will lose in states like Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Haryana and Chattisgarh but might make up by picking up handsomely in North east, Kerala, Karnataka, Orissa and West Bengal. That more or less balances losses with the gains. NDA however might go up marginally from 321 to around 340 which is primarily to do with the AIADMK and JDU joining NDA and TDP, Shiv sena and Akali dal delivering better than what they delivered in 2014.

Let us now look at the state wise break up.

1. Andhra Pradesh: In 2014 elections there was an alliance between TDP-BJP which helped the combine to win 17 out of 25 seats. The combined vote share is 36%. YSRCP which won 8 seats had a vote share of 29%. Congress won 0 seats with vote share of 12%. If we look at the scenario of 2019 we need to look at the trends in bye elections in 2016 and 2017. The bye elections in Tirupati and Nandyal recently indicates a strong wave for TDP-BJP combine and they will win 20 out of 25 seats in 2019. That’s +3 for TDP-BJP combine.

2. Assam: 14 seats are there in Assam and BJP has been doing wonderful in the states from 2014. In 2014 BJP won 7 out of 14 seats. But the real turn around happened in 2016 assembly elections where NDA led by BJP got 42% vote share. Congress was 2nd with 31% vote. Having lost that feel good and if we take 38-40% vote for NDA and 31-33% for UPA in 2019, we get 9 seats
for NDA and 5 for UPA. That’s +2 for BJP in Assam.

3. Bihar: This is where BJP will make a huge gain. In 2014 elections BJP got 22 out of 40 seats with 39% vote share. JDU got 16% vote. Now if they fight together and even if BJP loses 10% vote share also because in 2014 it was a multi cornered contest the JDU-BJP combine will have 45% vote vs RJD-Cong combine of 28% vote. That would mean 25 seats for NDA and 15 seats for UPA. Here also its +3 seats up for BJP.

4. Chattisgarh: Chattisgarh has 11 seats and its always tug of war between Congress and BJP. In 2014 BJP won 10 out of 11 seats with 49% vote and congress 1 seat with 39% vote. Now the scene is bit changed. There were no bye elections happened after 2014 and the state will go for assembly elections in late 2018. That should provide a strong indicator. But with naxal problem not solved and bit of anti-incumbency I predict 6 seats for BJP with 45% vote and 5 for Congress with 44% vote. First time is -4 for BJP.

5. Delhi & Goa: Together they have 9 seats. In 2014 elections BJP won 9 out of 9 seats. More or less the popularity is intact and I see them not losing more than 2 seats in Delhi and 1 in Goa. So minimum they would get 6 out of 9 and congress 3. That’s one more -3 down for BJP.

6. Gujarat: It is the personal turf of Modi. Gujarat has 26 seats. In 2014 BJP won 26/26. With Amit shah in charge BJP will retain it hold. Whatever maybe the result of assembly elections BJP will maintain its 26/26 record in 2019 also. So, its status quo for BJP.

7. Haryana: It’s a complicated state with 10 seats. In 2014 BJP won 7 out of 10 with 35% vote. INLD a strong force in Haryana won 2 seats and Congress 1. However, in just few months the assembly elections saw BJP vote slipping to 33%. With strong anti-incumbency and Ram Rahim effect BJP is set to lose heavily in this state. I see a 10% drop in vote share which will take BJP to 25% and it might end up winning 3 seats. INLD might win 5 and Congress 2. That means its -4 for BJP here also.

8. Himachal and J&K: Put together these two states have 10 seats and BJP won 7 out of 10 here in 2014. Himachal will be cake walk for BJP and Jammu also might give BJP its 3 seats. So, this time also am expecting a 7 out of 10. That means status quo.

9. Jharkhand: This is a tribal state with 14 seats and in 2014 BJP did exceedingly well bagging 12 out of 14. BJP got 40% vote. In the assembly elections that followed BJP got 35% vote share. Keeping 32% as vote share because of anti-incumbency I see BJP bagging 9 out of 14 and UPA 5. That’s -3 for BJP again.

10. Karnataka: Karnataka has 28 seats and in 2014 BJP got 17 out of 28 getting 43% vote. This time Congress might suffer a setback in assembly elections and in 2019 I see BJP vote share going to 45% that means 21 out of 28 seats which is +4 more than 2014.

11. Kerala: In 2014 BJP scored zero out of 20 seats. But it got 10% vote share for the first time. But the good news comes from 2016 assembly elections where BJP got 15% vote. Since then they are on a rise and if we look at 2019 I expect BJP to touch 20% vote share which will give it minimum 6 seats in a 3-cornered contest. That’s a huge account opening for BJP and a +6 addition to its tally.

12. Madhya Pradesh: Madhya Pradesh has 29 seats and BJP won 27 out of it with 55% vote share. The recently held bye elections in 2 seats saw BJP getting a vote share of 48%. That is a drop of 7% which means BJP might end up at 23 and Congress 6 in 2019. That’s -4 for BJP from MP.

13. Maharashtra: It’s a very complicated state to predict. There are 48 seats here and BJP Shiv sena combined won 41 out of 48. BJP got 27% vote and Shiv sena 21% vote. But in the assembly elections later BJP went alone and got 28% vote and Shiv sena dropped to 19%. Now the scenario is different. BJP must be with Shiv sena and together both might end up with 45% vote. If Congress forms an alliance with NCP then they can together get 41% vote. That would mean 28 seats for NDA and 20 for UPA. That’s a huge drop of -13 seats. But if BJP manages to keep NCP away from congress and make it a 3-cornered fight then it might end up getting 36 seats which will be a drop of -5 which is a much better scenario.

14. North east: Minus Assam North east accounts for 10 seats and in 2014 BJP won just 1 out of 10 seats. But with Himantha Biswa Sarma making BJP strong in North east BJP will win the lone seat in Arunachal, 2 in Manipur, 2 in Meghalaya and 1 in Sikkim. That takes the total to 6 seats. That’s a +5 for BJP from North east.

15. Orissa: Orissa has 21 seats and BJP has been eyeing this state from a long time. In 2014 elections BJP was 3rd in Orissa with 21% vote share behind Congress that had 26% and BJD which had 44%. It won just 1 out of 21 seats. The Zilla parishad and municipal elections held in 2017 saw BJP making huge gains and if those stand then BJP’s vote share might go to 30% and BJD will drop to 40%. That would mean BJP winning 8 out of 21 seats and BJD getting 13. That means its +7 for BJP in Orissa, huge gains.

16. Punjab: Punjab has 13 seats and in 2014 BJP-Akali combine won 6 out of 13. The total vote share is just 29%. Congress won 3 seats with 33% vote and AAP won 4 seats with 30% vote. Now let’s look at the Punjab assembly elections in 2017. BJP’s vote share improved to 31% from 29%, Congress jumped to 39% from 33% and AAP reduced to 23% from 30%. By 2019 with aging Amrinder Singh not able to hold the reins and with AAP in tatters I see a sweep for BJP-Akali combine with 45% vote getting 10 seats and Congress with 35% vote reduced to 3. That’s a jump of +4 seats for BJP in Punjab.

17. Rajasthan: BJP got 25/25 seats in Rajasthan in 2014 and just few months before that they won the 200-member assembly with more than 170 seats. Rajasthan is one state that has huge anti-incumbency and every govt changes in 5 years. This time elections to the state assembly are scheduled at the end of 2018 and it’s going to be tough for BJP to fight the anti-incumbency. Congress has a good leader in Sachin Pilot who can match the popularity of Vasundhara Raje Scindhia. The recent by poll went in favor of BJP but that’s not an indicator that the vote is intact. BJP got 51% vote in 2014 and that’s likely to come to around 46% in 2019 and Congress that was at 31% in 2015 might go to 39% or so. That means 18 seats for BJP and 7 for Congress. That’s a loss of -7 seats to BJP.

18. Tamilnadu: Tamilnadu and Pondy have 40 seats between them and it’s in a mess. In 2014 AIADMK swept the state winning 37 out of 40 seats with 44% vote share. This time BJP wants an alliance with AIADMK. But is AIADMK strong after Amma is a big question. DMK got 24% vote and this will go up significantly. I see a 35% vote for AIADMK and 34% for DMK and a split mandate of 21 seats for BJP and 19 for DMK-Congress. That also means a huge jump of +21 seats for BJP as its zero in 2014.

19. Telangana: Telangana is a complex state with 17 seats and in 2014 BJP-TDP combine has 2 seats from here. Telangana is a TRS bastion and unless TRS joins NDA there is no chance for it. Maximum BJP can hope for is the Secunderabad seat to it. That means a loss of 1 seat. So, -1 for BJP from here. Congress can pick up handful seats here around 5, leaving 1 to MIM and 11 for TRS.

20. Uttar Pradesh: The largest state in India with 80 seats. BJP swept in 2014 getting 73 out of 80 with 43% vote share. If we compare 2017 assembly elections BJP managed to hold on to that high vote share and got 42%. But 2 years from now things will change and am seeing a 40% vote share and 60 seats for the BJP that means a huge drop of -13 seats.

21. Uttarakhand: It’s a small state with 5 seats and I expect BJP to bag all the 5 like 2014.

22. West Bengal: It has 42 seats and in 2014 BJP got 18% vote share and 2 seats. The recent bye poll in Bengal showed BJP crossing 30% vote share and stood behind TMC. If this holds on Bengal will be a big surprise and BJP will bag 10 seats. That’s up by +8 seats.

23. Union territories: There are 4 seats in UTs and BJP like 2014 will get 3 of them.

The Battle for the Stock Market Favorite State of the Country – Gujarat!

The Battle for the Stock Market Favorite State of the Country – Gujarat!

Gujarat assembly elections feels like India’s Lok Sabha Elections. They have become the talk of the Political circles in India and in the major Countries in the World. So many reactions and so much of coverage. Many debates and too many strategies plotted by both the Political parties to win the throne. It’s like a Must Win game for Congress to at least take some pride going till 2019 or its game end. BJP is not free from fear, they are equally in need of regaining the throne. 22 years of Gujarat and above all it’s the Place of Modi. They cannot afford to lose this state. People across the globe are watching and no party wants to walk with heads down by the end of the battle.

Campaigning has been going neck to neck with both the parties throwing arrows. Congress went too much by calling the PM Modi Neech, Kapil Sibal lost the battle hands down against Subramanyam Swamy in the courts for Ayodhya. BJP politicians call Modi as the Baap of India and this statement has been taken as disrespect to Mahatma Gandhi by the Congress. With all the negative comments Congress have lost that edge and second favorite to win the election. That said the first phase of Gujarat elections is already done and voting percentage was seen at 68-70%. Many reports claim win for BJP and equal number of reports claim Congress will win it. If this is how it looks let’s look at what ‘Satta Bazaar’ decides and talks.

Satta Bazaar: Gujarat Predictions

Satta Bazaar gives 3 predictions for BJP

  1. If BJP gets 110-124 seats you would get 1.50 for every 1 rupee you bet. Suppose you bet 1 lakh you get 1.5 lakh if BJP gets anywhere between 110-125 seats.
  2. If BJP gets 125-149 seats you would get 3.50 rupees for every one rupee you bet. Suppose you bet 1 lakh you will get 3.5 lakh if BJP gets anywhere between 125-150 seats.
  3. If BJP gets 150 seats and above you would get 7.00 rupees for every rupee you bet. Suppose you bet 1 lakh rupees you will get 7 lakh rupees if BJP gets 150 seats and above.

Satta bazaar gave 2 predictions for Congress

  1. If congress wins upto 75 seats you get 1.10 for every rupee bet. Suppose you bet 1 lakh rupees you get 1 lakh 10 thousand if congress wins anywhere upto 75 seats.
  2. If Congress wins upto 100 seats you will get 3 rupees for every rupee bet. Suppose you bet 1 lakh rupees you get 3 lakh rupees if congress wins anywhere between 76-100 seats. No one is betting on Congress winning above 100 seats.

General Predictions by Satta bazaar

  1. The rate for BJP victory is 50 paise for 1-rupee bet, which means everyone thinks BJP will win.
  2. The rate for congress victory is 2 rupees. It means if Congress wins and forms govt you get 2 lakh rupees for every 1 lakh rupee bet.

Looking at these betting figures and odds also its clear that BJP sets to win Gujarat with ease but if congress gives a shocker to BJP its going to be immediate loss to Bookies. What happens to Gujarat if Congress wins later is story to discuss on later date.

All we can now do is to wait till the 18th of December!