Tag Archives: Elections

What’s the outlook for Indian Stock Markets for the next 3 months?

What’s the outlook for Indian Stock Markets for the next 3 months?

Politics is one of the major fundamentals in the movement of the Stock Market. Generally, markets react very sharply to any kind of unfavourable measures taken by the Govt for the economy. So when it comes to elections, the moment the ‘markets’ don’t get the desired result the reaction would be severe to watch. There are days when Stock markets have shown rapid upwards and downwards movement riding on the outcome of the elections. Till early 2012 stock markets were solidly behind UPA led by Congress. But a series of scams that took place later changed the sentiment and from mid-2013 it wanted the NDA led by BJP to come to power.


The measurement starts from February 2014, exactly 5 years ago when there were opinion polls that put NDA ahead of UPA. That is where Nifty started its journey from 6000. This mark of 6000 was reached way back in 2008 and from then on Nifty was stuck there. By the time results came towards the end of May Nifty scaled 7000. Then the victory of BJP in Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Haryana in late 2014 pushed it to 8000 mark. Just before the results of Delhi and Bihar in March 2015 Nifty scaled 9000. But the losses for BJP in both the states pushed Nifty back all the way to 7000 and from there it started its journey back again upwards. Just before demonetization, Nifty scaled 9000 again November 2016 but it took the massive victory of Uttar Pradesh in March 2017 that made Nifty to capture 10000. The subsequent victories in Gujarat in November 2017 and Karnataka in early 2018 pushed Nifty to 11000 mark. But that was the end. The losses in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan brought it back to 10500 levels and now we are back to the situation again we started 5 years ago, with Lok Sabha elections, just around the corner.

Here are the dates of different elections in the past for your reference.

2014 May – General Elections
2014 November – Maharashtra, Haryana & Jharkhand
2015 March – Bihar & Delhi
2016 November – Demonetization
2017 March – Uttar Pradesh
2017 November – Gujarat
2018 April – Karnataka
2018 December – Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh & Rajasthan

If the things really turn out to be negative for BJP and if so-called 3rd Front supported by Congress forms the Government, we are to see a big fall in the markets and NIFTY could well go to 6000 mark yet again. This 6000 mark is something that Nifty tested in 2008, 2010 and 2014. Now we might go back to where we have started. Even if Congress forms a minority Govt also thing won’t be different and we might test the 6000 levels. In another scenario, if things change for good and BJP starts gaining its momentum in the last few left out days, with the mood of the Nation NIFTY will also react positively and it can hit 11,000 after the budget. This is only because of a positive feeling about the Govt.

Once the results come in for the BJP then we shall see the NIFTY moving all the way towards 12000 and by the time Modi takes the oath again, he will be welcomed by another all-time high of 12000 on Nifty, just like how it welcomed Modi in 2014 with an all-time high of 7000! So, interesting 100 days ahead of us!

Market Trade Setup 12th December #NIFTY

Market Setup 12th December

A sense of uneasiness prevails after a storm yesterday. A storm that swept BJP away from 3 states and to add to that we had an appointment of a Governor who is not a favourite person mainly on his credentials fit for an RBI governor. Globally things have become quiet and US markets have ended in a flat territory with a cut of 50 points and Asian markets are in the green territory with both Hong Kong and Japan up nearly 400 points. The Brent crude also has stabilized even though there were worries of escalation due to supply cut. Brent settled at 60 odd mark and it is trading at 60.7 dollars and the only worry is Rupee touching 72 per dollar and today is the day we have to watch out for on rupee front.

On the domestics, its 0-3 for BJP though the losses in two states were very narrow. Madhya Pradesh is almost a tie and still, we do not know who will form the Govt there. Congress emerged as the single largest party and with the support of SP and GGP are in a better position to form the Govt then BJP. This loss will have some impact on the market in the long term. The other big news is the appointment of Shaktikanta Das a retired IAS officer as the Governor of RBI. At the face of it, it looks like a horrible appointment as the Govt is looking at its convenience than the dynamics of running RBI as the major factor in the appointment. We will have to wait and watch what he will do. On the data front, IIP and CPI data is coming out today after the markets close.

On the derivatives front, we had a day that started on the low and steadily went up. But it didn’t help the long positions in the Futures market as they continue to be at 46%. We have created a scenario in this week where 54% of positions are short and at the beginning of the series we were 59% long and now it is just 46%. On the options front, there was some demand that has come on the put side with Nifty put-call ratio went up to 1.33 from 1.30 level. 10000 put added maximum open interest of 7.6 lakh positions, 10200 put added 6.8 lakh positions10400 put added 4.4 lakh positions. 10000 put has 53.1 lakh open positions and has the highest open interest followed by 10200 at 49.2 lakh positions. So, the base of the market moved from 10500 to 10000-10200 range. The call side open interest still remains at 11000 call

What is the Nifty call for the day?

A flat to slightly negative start is likely to happen today, as we get the news of Congress emerging as a single largest party in Madhya Pradesh. The open might be in 10510-10540 zone and from there we might see some volatility. 10480 will offer as a support and it is better to take a long position there with a 50 point target not exceeding 10550-10580 range. Yesterday I had spoken about a call buying and that has given you a handsome profit and today it is more to do with this minor trade on the long side. We will wait for things to settle down to look at further positions.

Market Trade Setup 11th December #NIFTY

Market setup 11th December

What started as global growth fear has escalated into a huge domestic scare with a series of events yesterday pulling Nifty down more than 200 points and we have cues today that can take markets another 200 points down or wipe out all the losses that we got yesterday. The US has finally recovered from the losses that were made till yesterday and closed almost flat. Asia is also in the flat to green just like the US market but India will not be bothered about all that. It will also not bothered about the fact that Brent Crude has reached 60 dollars per barrel. India will have its own fundamental and that fundamental is Urjit Patel and 5 state elections.
 
Coming to domestics, its the election results day and the exit polls suggest a 2-1 victory of Congress in 3 states and markets were factoring in 1-2 for Congress. A 3-0 win for Congress could result in another 200 point fall. A 3-0 win for BJP would mean all the losses that Nifty made yesterday will be wiped out.
 
So, you have a lot of volatility and a lot of things to look for. Added to this is Telangana where though BJP has nothing directly, but indirectly if TRS fails to get a majority then it could come in the picture as it has already offered to support TRS. Mizoram is the last Congress state standing and a loss here would mean we have a congress mukt Northeast. A 3-0 loss to Congress means we will almost have a Congress mukt Bharat except for Punjab and Karnataka where it’s in a fragile coalition. Urjit Patel resigning might be a news of the past and we will talk about it some other day.

 

What is the Nifty call for the day?

We cant even predict the open as everything depends on the election trends. As of now Congress is in lead in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh while Chattisgarh is going tight. This is just postal ballots so we cant conclude anything from this. I present two scenarios here. Scenario one where if Congress is sweeping the 3 states, wait for the reaction to get over and allow Nifty to fall another 200-300 points and look to enter with a long position then. The other scenario is where BJP is winning then you can enter into a long position quickly. You can wait for my updates as the election builds up. For now, just watch the results.

Predictions for Assembly Elections 2018 #India #Elections

This is neither an exit poll nor an opinion poll. It was not done by taking any sample or meeting any voters on the ground. We have taken the data from the past, observed the trends of voting and percentage of votes at the first level. Then we looked at the candidates contesting, which party they belonged to before, as the second level. Then the third level is the campaigning done by top leaders of BJP and Congress and how they were able to swing the voters. All these are based on my observations and from the news reports.

The methodology adopted for each state is different and it is as follows

1. Telangana: We have only one election ie 2014 data which is relevant as the state was carved out from AP in 2014 and the political equations before were very different and hence irrelevant. Here we looked at every constituency and the votes polled for TRS and compared it with INC-TDP. We have not just taken a mathematical value but we based it on how many votes of TDP can be perceptually transferred to the Congress. For every constituency it is different. We have also taken into the note of the fact that the desertions that happened in TDP, INC and YSRCP and all of them went to TRS and how it can impact on the ground level. Many were given tickets in this elections also. So, we looked at the winnability of a candidate from that angle also. and projected individually for all the 119 seats.  

2. Chhattisgarh: Here also we have gone constituency wise and we looked at the 2008 and 2013 elections and their results and the candidates who have been changed and the candidates who were kept constant. We also looked at the possible impact that BSP-Ajit Jogi combine will have on the elections and have come up with the forecast for the 90 seats. 

3. Madhya Pradesh: Here we have gone region wise. We have divided Madhya Pradesh into 5 regions of Malwa, Bhopal, Mahakaushal, Vindhya Pradesh and Chambal and we have subdivided these 5 regions based on the 52 districts in MP. We looked at the data of 2008 and 2013 elections and have assumed and made projections on the fact that if there is a uniform 7% swing against BJP in this election from the 45% vote they got in 2013 what will happen to each region. We have averaged 2008 and 2013 and on that average, we took a 7% swing to project for the 230 seats.

4. Rajasthan: This is the toughest as no party got elected twice. so, taking 2008 and 2013 won’t be sufficient. So we went back and took 1998, 2003, 2008 and 2013 data which has 2 congress wins and 2 BJP wins and projected for 2018. We have divided Rajasthan into 7 regions of Bikaner, Shekhawati, Hadoti, Vagad, Mewar, Marwar and Dhundhar. There were many factors like Rajput anger on BJP, Anger against Vasundhara but positive perception of Modi, traditional BJP and INC strongholds that were considered. Like MP, for Rajasthan also we have gone for district wise predictions for all the 7 regions covering the 200 seats. 

All this was done for an educational purpose and by combining analytics with ground level incidents and not taking any voter opinion. So, the accuracy entirely depends on how well we were able to capture the mood of the past voter and mixed with the present political dynamics and project the voting trends and converting them into seats.

Market Setup 7th December #NIFTY

Market Setup 7th December

The Weekend is here for the first week of December and what a forgettable week this has been! Dow Jones has fallen another 800 points and from there it recovered to close just 80 points in red. That 700 points plus recovery on US markets has sent a positive global signal. Fed’s statement that it will wait and watch before going in for rate hikes has pushed the sentiment. Asian markets have recovered and have come to the positive territory wit Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and China in mild green. The Dollar also has weakened a bit and Brent Crude also has fallen below 60 dollars again and now trading at 59.1 dollars per barrel. 

Coming to domestics, today is the day of elections in two crucial states of Rajasthan and Telangana. BJP started as a big loser in Rajasthan and 3 months ago everyone was talking 130 plus seats for Congress and from there, things have dramatically changed. Rajasthan today has become as unpredictable as Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Telangana also has from a position of a cake walk to KCR has turned itself into a heated battle between KCR and Mahakootami. The market will get the feel of the sentiment by 2 PM today and we can see it getting reflected. Added to this is the exit poll results which will come today after market hours and that will lift some suspense from the results. 

Coming to derivatives, yesterday also saw huge selling in the Futures market and the overall long positions in Nifty futures has come down to 56% from 57% and this is the lowest in the series. On the options front, the Nifty put-call ratio plunged to 1.44 from 1.63 seen at the beginning of the day. Lots of put positions taken on the long side were unwound and a lot of short positions in the calls was also taken. 11000 call has added 13.1 lakh positions, 10700call added 9.9 lakh positions and 10900 call added 4.8 lakh positions. On the put side, 10500 put saw 5 lakh positions taken out. 10900 put saw 3.9 lakh positions taken out. 10000 on put side and 11000 on call side still continue to have highest open interest. 10200 and 10500 puts are close and might add some open interest today. 

What is the Nifty call for the day?

Finally the fall seems to have come to an end. We did nothing but watching it. One has to understand that stock trading is all about waiting patiently when unforeseen things happen, try to come out of it without panic. Global growth scare came from nowhere and took away 300 points from Nifty. Today we will recover some of it if other things go fine. Today Nifty will open gap up between 10660-10690 levels and 10750 is very much a possibility today on an intraday basis. If the sentiment in Rajasthan goes fine we can even see a close at 10750 levels. So, the losses that you made will be cut down drastically today. Hope for the best and wait for the next week when the actual results will be out!

Market Trade Setup 19th November #NIFTY

Market Trade Setup 19th November

As we enter the 4th-week good tidings seem to be on its way. I was suggesting caution for last two days as Nifty has to cross 10650-10680 zone to move further up. If you have observed Friday closed with Nifty above 10680 and it gives some indication that Nifty has finally overcome the trading band of 10400-10650 zone. There is an important 200dma at 10750 and if that is crossed then 11000 is on its way. So, one more small hurdle in the form of 10750 is remaining before it goes upward. The global markets are doing good with Dow closing 130 points up on Friday and today all the Asian markets are in green indicating that there is nothing negative for India at the start.

Coming to domestics, this is where some caution is required. There is a crucial RBI board meeting scheduled today and point also is, its an internal RBI meeting and it’s not obligatory that the details of the meeting should be made public. So, a lot of rumors can float and if the meeting goes bad and if there are any resignations then that will have an adverse impact on the market. This meeting will touch upon the issue of liquidity. Govt wants more liquidity in the market, that is more money to make available to the public but RBI wants to target keeping inflation low by controlling liquidity flow. This divergence in stand has reached a flash point now and things might get ugly if one of them don’t soften their stand. So, let’s see what emerges in RBI today.

On the derivatives front, we are into the 4th week in November but the overall long positions in the Futures market are at 39% and this is a cause of some worry. As Nifty is going up the long positions are not going up. so, this might trigger sharp short covering up-moves but it can also see fresh shorting leading to sharp downward moves. So, all this presents a scenario for a volatile move in the next 9 trading days. On the options front, the Nifty put-call ratio is also at 1.64 vs 1.61 seen at the beginning of Friday. This means we are approaching the exhaustion zone of 1.70 which will make put shorting unviable and slowly the demand will start moving towards calls which is possible only when the market corrects. Friday has changed the roof of the market from 11000 to 10800. Now 10800 call has highest open interest and at 60 rupees 10860 for now is the highest point for the market. On the put side 10000 still has the highest open interest.

What is the Nifty call for the day?

A green Asia will ensure a 10700 plus opening for us, in the range of 10720 level and what happens after that needs to be seen. 10750 is the 200-day moving average and we might encounter a resistance there and with so many events its difficult for the market to cross that unless Europe opens positive and RBI doesn’t come as a big negative. In that case, Nifty will move toward 10780. Otherwise, the 10650-10750 will be the range for the day and in that situation I suggest you to observe for RBI meet closely and see how Europe opens. If you get a dip to 10700 levels and if Nifty stays above 10680 then take a long position with 10750-10780 as the target. You can see that there are a lot of conditions for the trade today, so trade carefully watching every move.

Indian General Elections Predictions 2019 – Mid Year Predictions – #LokSabha2019

BJP will not win a majority, but nobody else other than BJP can form a Govt in 2019!

Hello Everyone. Tuesday is here and I am back with my final post on 2019 Elections Predictions. I have in my last 4 posts on elections predicted the seats that the parties are going to win in the coming 2019 elections. We have seen that it is BJP which is ahead but not enough to win the elections on their own capacity. Apart from this there are few more very important points to be considered which are crucial. Standing on today as per the present situations my predictions are given below:

NDA = 289, UPA = 104, Third Front = 90 and Fourth Front = 60!

NDA
  1. BJP                         240
  2. JDU(Bihar) 19
  3. Shiv Sena             16
  4. Others                  14
UPA
  1. INC                        78
  2. DMK                     5
  3. RJD                       8
  4. NCP                      4
  5. Others                 9
Third Front
  1. TDP                       8
  2. Kamal Haasan    6
  3. CPI/CPM              8
  4. TMC                      30
  5. SP+BSP                 32
  6. Others                 6
Fourth Front
  1. TRS                       10
  2. YSRCP                   13
  3. Rajinikanth         19
  4. BJD                       16
  5. Others                 2

So, it is wrong to assume that all the Non-NDA and Non-UPA parties are in the third front. You also should understand that there is a Fourth Front which is opposite to the third front and cannot align with the third front. So, if UPA aligns with third front, it won’t get the support of fourth front. For example, TRS cannot align with congress because it is directly fighting Congress in Telangana. Similarly, TDP cannot align with YSRCP because they are fighting each other in AP. That presents me with 5 takeaways from the predictions I made in last 4 weeks.

  1. BJP is all set(?) with the help of its allies to retain the power in 2019!

BJP is sitting on 240 seats and by adding the seats of its allies the tally goes to 289. Which means there are 49 seats which are coming from its allies. BJP last time had 282 seats and this time they are at 240 seats and that’s fall of 42 seats. The two parties with maximum support to BJP are Shiv Sena and JDU in Bihar. These are the two parties which may change their minds at the eleventh hour. Though it’s not alarming news for BJP its surely a call to do something big to come back to power on its own. Because we never know in politics who jumps the castle.

  1. Third Front is not as strong as we think because we have Fourth Front which got emerged from third front!

Not very long ago there were articles written and posted on the birth of ‘Third Front’ which as per a class of journalists would form the next Government of India. So to put this argument to an end, my predictions give Third Front just 90 seats. That’s not even 1/3rd. If we add congress seats to Third front the tally goes to 194. That is nothing close to majority. The Fourth Front is the actual new born baby because there was a cold war between parties of third front and that lead to unofficial withdrawal. That has brought fourth front into scene which may not support BJP directly but give outside support if needed. So 60 seats are huge number and let’s remember that a coalition made out of 10 parties can never rule country!

  1. BJP is losing seats in Northern India and Western India but it is picking up seats in Southern and Eastern India.

BJP overall has 240 seats which looks to be a good number, but when you look into the statistics you will know that BJP is losing in the strong holds like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Maharashtra. Each state there is fall of average 30% fall in the seats won compared to 2014. But the good news being the BJP’s has strengthened in Eastern India and Southern India. Though there is gain in south and east the gain is not good enough to beat the fall in west and north India.

  1. This is perfect battle because the BJP’s Loss is INC’s gain!

If we see BJP is losing 42 seats from its 2014 tally of 282 and INC is winning 34 seats more than what it won in 2014. It shows how nicely INC is able to hit the areas where BJP is losing. We can even conclude that these numbers were won by BJP in 2014 majorly because of Modi wave. The loss of 40 seats is not big in a General election but it’s the pick that matters. That’s where Congress is doing really well to pick up the seats which BJP is losing.

  1. Will BJP form the Govt or Will the Karnataka Scenario hit the Nation in the month of May 2019?

Yes, BJP has 240 seats and its alliance combined takes it to 289 which is 15 seats more than the Majority mark. But the big worries for BJP are coming from Nitish Kumar of JDU whose 19 seats could cost them the majority.  Shiv Sena which is somehow dissatisfied with BJP and if Shiv sena moves out then NDA seats will fall further to 254. That will also mean UPA+Third Front tally will go to 194+16+19=229.  If leaders like Mamta Banerjee, then somehow manage to get KCR and Naveen Patnaik on board to support from outside then that 229 gets another 26 seats which takes their total to 255.

So now we are at NDA 254 and UPA+ThirdFront+JDU+Shivsena+BJD+TRS at 255. The climax then shifts to Tamilnadu where Thalaiva Rajnikanth is expected to win 19 seats. Whoever gets those 19 will cross that magical figure of 272!!

Knowing Rajnikanth well, it’s not tough to say that he will throw his weight behind Modi than behind Congress or Kamal Hassan.

So, final conclusion is that as per the present situations if elections are conducted, it is clear that BJP will win the 2019 elections in any conditions until or unless there is drastic change in the political scenario! Hope you liked this five-part series of mid-year 2018 predictions!!!

General Elections 2019! Mid Year Predictions – Northern Region #LokSabha2019

Lok Sabha Elections 2019 Predictions – Northern Region 

So I am back with the Elections Predictions on this Tuesday. The journey of predicting for the General Elections 2019 which started on 29th May is going to complete the region wise picture today and next week will be the All India picture. When we last visited election predictions and stopped with Western India Predictions, NDA was sitting at 214 seats and UPA at 203 seats with 126 seats left. Today you will know who will be the people’s choice in 2019 elections. But just few words before talking about the North Indian states, this predictions thing has seriously helped me in understanding the politics in the country. Someone who had restricted himself to Telangana, now has good knowledge on almost all the states.

Fine, so coming to the Northern Indian region of India. We have 7 states and Chandigarh here with 126 seats. Out of the 126 seats it’s the Uttar Pradesh which takes 2/3rds with 80 seats and rest 46 divided between other states. Let’s see if UPA is going to do any harm to NDA or will NDA retain the power in 2019!

  1. Uttar Pradesh: The Big State with 80 seats which was the jackpot for BJP in last elections is looking to be a disappointment this time. 2014 saw BJP winning as many as 73 seats and SP+BSP put together winning only 7 seats. This was a huge victory for BJP. This time though BJP will have to taste the bitterness as the predictions show that BJP will fall to 48 and SP+BSP alliance is looking to come back strong and win 32 seats. It is only in Paschim Pradesh or Western UP where BJP is kind of sweeping with 19 out of 28 but not as good as 2014 where it had won 25 seats. Avadh the minority dominated region and a strong hold of SP will be setback as BJP which won 11 last time out of 14 is now dropping to 6. Purvanchal is yet another disappointment for BJP, in the 2014 elections BJP has won 31 out of 32 and this time they are falling to 19 seats. It’s a victory for SP+BSP as they are jumping from 1 seat to 13 seats. And from the last region of 6 seats Bundelkhand BJP is losing 2 seats compared to 6 they won last time. Big point is I am expecting Rahul Gandhi to lose the election to Smriti Irani from Amethi.
  2. Jammu and Kashmir: To the top most state of the Country, in the last elections BJP was in alliance with PDP and it was a great move as they went on to win all the 6 seats. PDP won 3 from Kashmir region which has about 98% Muslim population, BJP won 2 seats in Jammu and 1 seat from Ladakh. We know that the alliance is no more in place and BJP will not and cannot win anything in Kashmir so straight they will fall to 2 as Ladakh is also looking difficult for BJP.
  3. Punjab: The only state where Congress is in power after 2014 elections. Akali Dal and BJP lost the assembly elections badly and Congress came back to the power in 2017. This will really effect the BJP+SAD and their numbers will drop to just 5 out of 13 seats. AAP has lost all its value and will not win anything. INC will gain majorly and will be up from 3 last time to 8 seats now.
  4. Delhi & Chandigarh: The capital has got 7 seats and BJP had clean swept all the 7 seats in the last elections. This time though due to some political problems and anti-incumbency will make way for Congress. Expecting BJP to lose 2 seats and might win 5 seats. From Chandigarh the only seat will go to Kirron Kher from BJP. Congress might win the remaining 2 seats in Delhi.
  5. Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh: Two states which are Pro BJP and I am not seeing any trouble for BJP. Both together there are 9 seats, Uttarakhand 5 and Himachal Pradesh 4. In 2014 BJP won all the 9, expecting BJP to do the same in 2019.
  6. Haryana: Another state which has the feeling of anti-incumbency and it will hurt BJP. Last time BJP has won 7 seats out of 10. This time with the fall of 2 seats BJP will retain 5 seats. It is the Indian National Lok Dal which is going to gain more due to the political issues in the state.

These are the predictions for the Northern Indian region and the race of prediction for the regions has come to an end. My predictions for the Northern India gives BJP 75 seats, INC 12 seats and others at 39 seats. Which takes the tally of BJP or NDA to 289, UPA to 95 and others to 159. With no confirmations on who will join whom and whether the present coalition parties will stay or not these numbers still look dangerous even though NDA might cross the majority mark. BJP+Allies as of now are at 289 without adding any support from South Indian states. In my South India predictions, we have seen Rajinikanth winning good numbers. There is always chance of parties jumping here and there.

Next week will be my concluding post where I will give you state by state figures for all the states and also will tell you how many seats BJP alone can win. Will it be less than 272, then how much less it will be and who are the partners it can bank upon. Wait for the concluding post on 3rd July, you will surely find it interesting!

Market Setup 15th May

Markets and News
Finally, the D day has come. The big fundamental of the year so far is here. After the Gujarat election last December we are all eagerly awaiting the Karnataka poll result that can have a huge impact on National election. So, global cues take a back seat today and the trend emerging will drive the market initially. The first trends are expected by 8.30am and by the time market opens, we will have some initial trends to react to. The clear trend will emerge post 10am and if its a hung assembly then suspense will be extended till afternoon.
Added to that we also had the domestic fundamentals like CPI data that has come in at 4.58% vs expected 4.3%. Surprisingly the food and fuel inflation is under control but what is not under control is the services sector inflation which came in at 5.9% vs 5.2% seen previous month. In normal terms it means that the demand for houses, loans, education, entertainment etc is increasing and this is called as demand driven inflation. It is good to have such inflation but the worry is it should not spiral out of control. Brent crude is at 78.2 dollars which should worry.
Q4 Results
On the Q4 results front, HUL came up with fantastic results with double digit volume growth. Following are the Q4 results expected today.
1. Britannia
2. Crompton
3. Dhanlakshmi Bank
4. Karnataka bank
5. Lupin
6. MRPL
7. Punjab National Bank
8. Snowman logistics
9. Syndicate Bank
10. Texmaco Rail
Derivatives Action
On the derivatives front, lot of long positions have been taken yesterday itself. But there is also a worry about BJP’s chances and that is casting bit of a worry. The options data is looking moving towards calls as Nifty put call ratio came down to 1.64 from 1.67. 10500, 10600, 10700 and 10800 puts are adding open interest while 10900, 11000 and 11200 calls are also adding open interest.
What is the Nifty and bank Nifty call for the day?
If you still have long positions and if Nifty goes up, exit at a high and book profits and sit and watch the Karnataka results. No problem in waiting for a day before sitting back and taking positions