Tag Archives: Elections 2019

All about the Mood of Maharashtra in this Maha Elections #LokSabha #Elections2019

India’s biggest State in terms of GDP and the state that every Indian dream to visit and fulfil their dreams ‘Maharashtra’ will go for elections in the month of April. People of Maharashtra will vote in the four phases from 11th April to 29th April.

There are 288 seats in Maharashtra Assembly where a party will need 145 seats for a majority. Coming to Lok Sabha, Maharashtra has 48 seats. Maharashtra is the second largest state in terms of Lok Sabha after Uttar Pradesh which has got 80 seats. The third is West Bengal with 42 seats and fourth is Bihar with 40 seats.

First, let’s look at the 4 regions:
Maharashtra Assembly Constituencies Map

1. Konkan & Goa Region – Coastal region on Maharashtra

2. Madhya Maharashtra – Entire belt after Pune

3. Marathwada- North and South of Maharashtra adjacent to Madhya Maharashtra

4. Vidarbha – Eastern Maharashtra bordering to Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. Nagpur is the capital of this region and comparable the backward regions of all.

Let’s look at the dates and seats phase-phase:

• April 11th – Vidarbha 7 seats

• April 18th – Most of Marathwada 10 seats

• April 23rd – Konkan & Goa 14 seats

• April 29th – Northern part of Marathwada 17 seats

Not to forget the big city in the country, Mumbai will be going for polls in the 4th phase and it has got 8 seats.

1. Kalyan (Outskirts)

2. Thane (Outskirts)

3. Mumbai North

4. Mumbai Northwest

5. Mumbai Northeast

6. Mumbai North Central

7. Mumbai South Central

8. Mumbai South

Source: Latestly

Fact check:

There are totally 8.73 crore registered voters of which there are 21 lakh first-time voters. Off 94,473 polling areas, 55,814 are rural areas and 39659 are urban polling booths.

The Big Fight: 2019 Lok Sabha polls

Maharashtra has 4 big parties, Shivsena, BJP, Congress and NCP. Shivasena was started by Balasaheb Thackeray in the early 1960s and he is the sole reason for many changes in Maharashtra. NCP was started by Sharad Pawar in 1996 after coming out of Congress. The irony is he is now with the same congress as an ally which he left 25 years ago. Though there are 4 parties it is always 2 cornered fight in the Elections. BJP is aligned with Shiva Sena and Congress is aligned with NCP. Till 2009 Cong-NCP dominated in most of the elections and they held power in the state for 15 years from 1999-2014.

Things though changed in 2014 when Maharashtra went all to BJP+Shiva Sena. BJP+SS won as many as 41 seats out of 48 seats, in which BJP won 23 and Shiva Sena took 18. Rest went for 4 NCP and 2 to Congress and the 1 went to the local party which in some days joined BJP.

That’s the strength BJP has grown to in Maharashtra. Lately, there have been differences in Shiva Sena and BJP. But, at the right moment, BJP and Shiv Sena have come together and announced their alliance. Adding to Congress woes, a lot of people walked out from Congress citing the reasons for unhappiness with the performance of Congress. Shocking is that the Leader of opposition Radha Krishna Vikhe Patil who was projected to be as CM if INC won in 2014 also joined BJP. First, it was his son over the disappointment of not getting Ahmed Nagar seat which was given to NCP. Next morning even the father left the party to join BJP. This proves that the alignment is not good and the condition of Congress with NCP is really bad.

This is how the story is getting unfolded in Maharashtra. Finally, an opinion poll by India Today and Karvy says that the BJP and Shiva Sena coalition will win 42 seats which are one seat more than last time. This will mean that the ruling BJP and Shiv Sena will sweep Maharashtra. Let’s wait and watch for the polls and then the counting on May 23rd!

Indian Stock Markets are on a roll as Nifty rallies 2.5% in the last 4 days and 6.75% in the last 3 weeks!

Hello Everyone, this post is a continuation to the last week. In the last week, I had written and explained about the movement of the NIFTY during the General Elections 2014 and compared them to the present scenario. Nothing has changed when it comes to the political decisions are concerned in the last week, but the mood of the market has entirely changed. Last Tuesday NIFTY closed at 10987 and today it closed at 11301 which is 2.85% up move. The only big event that has happened in last one week is the release of election dates for Elections 2019.

Election Commission has decided the dates for the Lok Sabha Elections 2019 on Saturday. Seven phase election is scheduled to begin on the 11th of April and conclude on the 19th of May. Counting is scheduled to be held on May 23rd which is a week later than the last two General Elections. This week has begun on a very different note with NIFTY going up by 1.2% and 1.19% on both the days. This kind of move is only possible when there is a lot of buying in the Delivery channel. Delivery buying is the type of buying where the stocks are bought for investment purpose. Usually, delivery buying is for a minimum of 2 weeks to 3 months.

But should there be a rally before the elections and the important results?

Simply because markets are the leading indicators for the Indian economy. Leading indicator here means something which has the hint of future and tries to jump into the future for a better valuation. Markets everywhere read the future and they trade accordingly.

Who is this Mr/Ms Market?

Obviously, it is the Public. The market is we the people of the country. This includes the High net-worth individuals, individual investors, foreign investors, mutual funds etc. So it is basically the people’s opinion. Keeping it simple, we can call the investors as Domestic and Foreign. Right now we can say that 70% of contribution comes from Foreign investors and 30% comes from Domestic investors. That makes it more clear that the Foreign investors believe that there is positive news coming from the elections. The positive news here at the moment is the re-election of NDA to power.

That proves that it’s the people who take the market forward and these people include all kinds.

How long will this rally Sustain?

Going by the past rally during the General Elections 2014, it was seen that NIFTY was at 6000 at the beginning of February month and on the day of results NIFTY was trading at 7142. This is an astonishing growth of 19% in just 3 and a half months. Going by this simple equation, NIFTY has gone from 10600 in the middle of February to 11320 in the middle of March, which is again a 6.75% growth in just 1 month. With the results being pushed a week we can conservatively expect the Markets to hit 12,000 minimum on the results day. This will mean the Markets will move another 6% up from tomorrow. I repeat 6% is minimum growth it has got all legs to hit 10-12% as well. All this is on the narrative that BJP will come back to the Power in 2019 Elections.

What’s in the store for Investors?

NIFTY 50 Stocks and their returns during build up to General Elections 2014 and General Elections 2019.

Returns, High Returns!! Yes, in the last post also I have discussed how the stocks have made big money from March 2014 to May 2014. The average returns of the portfolio of the 10 stocks from NIFTY gave 31.38% in only 80 days. The same portfolio when calculated this year from Feb 28th till date i.e. 12th March has given 6.7% average returns. By going with the past trends it’s clear that you can make a minimum of 20% returns. Don’t wait and invest in the markets. Especially in the large-cap NIFTY stocks for safe returns. My feeling is obviously to invest and make ‘BIG’ money by the time counting day comes. #NiftyNeedsNamo

Okay! That’s about the Markets and Elections. If this is how interesting the Elections are turning out to be, how can one miss the action? I wouldn’t want to and I hope there are more like me. So, for the next 10 weeks leading to the counting day of Lok Sabha elections 2019, I will be writing posts relating to Elections 2019 for two times in a week. Once on a Tuesday and the other one on Friday. In these posts, I will be writing about the situations, opinions polls, who’s ahead and who’s losing, what each leader are saying and doing, and analyse the mood of the nation leading up to next 72 days!

Stocks that could be Big Winners for next 6 months, but just one condition!

General elections 2019 are just around the corner and the news channels have started the countdown for the big day. This time the battle is expected to be a cliff hanger and a last ball nail biter. There have been many blame games, dashes, cheap tricks, low level comments made by every possible politician. Unfortunate things have happened in the country in the last 1 month and India is fighting it hard and trying to compensate for the loss that we had. This post I will jump back to 2014 and bring out some interesting data oriented analysis from the Stock Market field to show how the stocks predict the winner much before the Exit Polls could.

Firstly, today NIFTY had a big rally after having a waiting game for last few days. Today NIFTY went up by 123 points to close at 10987, coinciding fact that on the first Tuesday of also 2014 NIFTY went up 125 points to close 6526 points.

Few points:

  1. NIFTY50 went up by 18.4% from March 2014 to May 2014 which is just 2 months and barring this year which has been a volatile year, NIFTY since BJP win gone up by 60% till March 2018.
  2. Stocks like Maruti Suzuki went from 1582 to 2386 which is 50% uptrend in just 2 months. The same stock since the 2014 Election is up by 271%.
  3. Random 9 NIFTY 50 stocks which have gone up by 40% and above.
  4. Maruti – 271%
  5. HDFC Bank – 169%
  6. HUL – 137%
  7. HDFC – 100%
  8. Cipla – 65%
  9. Bajaj Auto – 50%
  10. Axis Bank – 43%
  11. L&T – 43%
  12. ICICI Bank – 43%
  13.  Now let’s look at the same stocks and their performance from March 2018 to till date
  14. Maruti – (-19%)
  15. HDFC Bank – (-4%)
  16. HUL – 29%
  17. HDFC – 11%
  18. Cipla – (-18%)
  19. Bajaj Auto – (-2%)
  20. Axis Bank – 36%
  21. L&T – (-10%)
  22. ICICI Bank – (-4%)

Looking at the data of the stocks returns, it’s clear that there is a big uptrend in the stocks right after the elections. Interestingly well before the results could come stocks have rapped up very high returns. 2 months saw average of 25% returns for a Nifty50 stock with SBI making highest of 80% returns, followed by the stocks like Maruti, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank.

This small study is to bring out the possible stocks that could return good money if invested. Today was the day of a sign by Market. It all depends on whether this is a real trend or a false trend. It’s all going to be real tough to predict the winner of the 2019 elections but one always knows that the ruling party has got higher chance than any other party. As we are looking at the behaviour of the stock markets in the last 5 years and the last 2 months before elections. It’s also important that the investor decides the right stock which is only possible through proper study and obviously a little intuition and finally risk taking ability. Right now, the risk rates are very high and so will be the returns.

The condition for the above stocks to perform well and fetch you minimum of 20% returns in 2 months is victory for the ruling party.  Don’t hurry up and take positions tomorrow. Wait at least for a week to see if Nifty is really on an uptrend. If Nifty sustains and remains above 11000 then its time to re-invest again. I wold tell you how to do it in my next Tuesday post. Till then observe the trend.