Tag Archives: Crude

Market Trade Setup 13th July #Nifty

Markets and News
Weekend, Friday, the 13th the unluckiest day of the year. But the week looks good and all that is needed is for the market now is not to lose what it had gained this week and close with the gains intact, if not increase the gains. Dow closed in the positively last night with 200 point gain, Europe also closed positive and Asia is also looking green except Shanghai market which is 0.5% down back on the US trade sanctions. Brent Crude saw further fall and now it is below 74 dollars and can we said it touching 70 dollars? We need to wait and see.
Domestic Cues
On domestics, there are a lot of domestic cues to look at. The first is the CPI inflation for June that came at 5%. That number looks uncomfortable for many, who saw 2% and 3% inflation in last many months but if you look at it carefully it comes on a base of 1.46% seen last May which is a very low base. The best news for me is Food inflation which comes at 2.9% vs 3.1% in the previous month and -2.1% in May 2017. Imagine a 2.9% figure on a negative base. It means Govt did a fantastic job in controlling food prices. The only worry is the core inflation which is non food and non fuel inflation which comes at 6.3% vs 6.2% in the previous month. This could mean RBI will go for another rate hike in their August policy.
We had another macro data in the form of IIP for May, that came in yesterday and it came in at 3.2% vs expected figure of 3.9% and vs 2.9% seen in last May. Manufacturing is still lower at 2.8% and the bad news is from the FMCG sector which had a negative growth of -2.6% vs 9.7% seen in the May last year. The good news is however from capital goods at grew at a healthy 7.6% vs -1.6% seen in the same month last year. And coming to Q1 results we are going to have Infosys coming up with their Q1 in the evening after the markets close. So, you can see the reaction only on Monday.
Derivatives Action
On the derivatives front, yesterday things went bullish again as Nifty crossed 11000 and the overall long positions in the futures also crossed 50% and now we are net long with 51% long positions and 49% short positions. The options market also saw a huge surge in the bullish positions and the nifty put call ratio surged to 1.73 from 1.67. 1.73 is a overheated zone where puts will give you profits 73% more than calls. That got proved with 11000 put adding 15.4 lakh contracts and 11000 call unwinding 4.7 lakh contracts. Now 11200 call is active with 5.9 lakh contracts getting added there. So there is a feeling that Nifty will not fall below 10920 and will go as high as 11220 in this series.
What is the Nifty call for the day?
The cues look good but yesterday afternoon the market fell a lot especially the mid caps and that might have an impact on Nifty today. Nifty might open around 11050 and might go to 11080 but beyond that Nifty will find it difficult to go. 11000 might come as a support zone and also the 10950 which might act as a very strong support. I would suggest today, to go for a short position at the open around 11050-11060 levels with 10980-11000 as the target as it is a friday and lot of covering of positions might happen in the afternoon.

Stock Market Trade Setup 28th May 2018 #Nifty

Markets and News
The last week of May series starts on a positive note. There was a flat to negative close on Friday in US market and Dow lost 58 points. But that will not be a trigger today but what happened during weekend is important. Oil prices across the World have suddenly come down on the news that the top three oil supplying companies coming up with the news that they are planning to increase the supply on the growing demand. That has pushed Crude prices down and from close to 80 dollars Brent lost 5 dollars and now its trading at 74.8 dollars now. Asia is in the green now and that is a good news.
Domestic Cues
On domestics, there are quite a few fundamentals to look at. Bypolls for 10 assembly segments and 4 lok sabha seats today and their results will have a big impact. Any losses here means BJP will lose the majority mark of 272 in Loksabha. Another fundamental is the monsoon which is likely to hit Kerala according to met department as early as tomorrow. That will be the good news for the market. Plus there are some last set of Q4 results that are going to come today. First is L&T which will come up with numbers and apart from that PSU companies like NTPC, NMDC and oil marketing companies like IOCL will declare their Q4 today.
Derivatives Action
On the derivatives front, there was a massive buying that happened on the Nifty futures on Friday but the selling still continues as Nifty is inching higher. That has put the Nifty long positions at 47% which still means that there are 53% short positions. However in the options market puts are in demand and Put call ratio surged to 1.47 from 1.29 levels seen on Friday morning. The puts that are in demand are the 10500 and 10600 put where the positions went up as nifty was going up. 10700 and 10600 call saw some unwinding.
What is the Nifty and Bank Nifty call for the day?
The lower crude and positive Asia means we will have a slightly positive open around 10630-10650 zone and what happens from there needs to be seen. Remember that series high is 10930 and technically nifty has legs to go there. But 10800 will be a strong hurdle and for this series a long position now taken below 10650 with a target of 10720 can be taken. A hedge for that I would be suggesting during the course of the day.
Bank Nifty will be at 26300 and another long position there with 26500 is something you can look at, with some tight stop losses.

Market Trade Setup 25th May 2018 – #Nifty

Markets and News
Week 4 of the longest series running for 35 days comes to an end today and things are kind of settling down. The major fundamental is the Trump’s decision to cutoff the proposed meet with North Korea at Singapore. Not going well for Asia and Dow Jones reacted negatively to it. Second is the Fed’s decision to allow the inflation to go higher and accordingly rise the interest rates. So, in all probability, there would be a rate hike in Fed’s June policy. This fundamental has pushed the dollar index again and it started going to 94 again and this will have some impact on Rupee today.
Domestic Cues
On the domestic front, its not going great today as the Petrol prices went up for the 12th day running, making up for the losses for 1 month, when Govt did not change the prices due to Karnataka elections. The Brent Crude however has cooled off a bit and has settled at 78.6 dollars. The Q4 results however continue to come average with some companies like cummins which declared a bad set of numbers while Pidilite was good. Today also the action will continue with Bank of Baroda, the big PSU coming with their Q4 today.
Following are the Q4 results expected today.
1. Bank of Baroda
3. Good year tyres
4. Hindustan Motors
6. Indian Hotels
7. Jagran publications
8. Jindal SAW
9. Sun Pharma
10. Tech Mahindra
Derivatives Action
On the derivatives front, the relentless selling by FII’s is continuing in the Futures market and the overall long positions has now dropped to 45% which is the lowest in this series. The premium has totally eroded and now Nifty futures are trading at a discount of 9 points. This is a bearish sign and unless there is a short covering the market won’t go down on this trend. The options market is also seeing a different trend today with a lot of put buying taking the Nifty put call ratio to 1.29 from 1.18 level. 10500 put add 9.3 lakh contracts and 10400 put added 5.9 lakh contracts while on the call side 10700 call added 6.1 lakh contracts.
What is Nifty and bank Nifty call for the day?
Asia is not positive and that means we will open flat around the 10520-10530 mark and what happens from there needs to be seen. 10550 will present a strong resistance and on the downside 10500 might offer support. Today is the weekend and positions will be closed in the afternoon leading to volatility. I would suggest you to wait and watch today. Avoid taking any positions and come back fresh on Monday morning to trade in options market in the expiry week.
Bank Nifty is more positive than Nifty and so any drop to 25900-25950 zone should be taken as a chance to enter into a long position to be taken to next week with 26150-26200 as a target. This is for weekly trade not intraday.

Market Setup 23rd May

Markets and News
Mid week blues are back both globally as well as domestically. After a handsome rally of 300 points on Monday, US markets lost some of its gains and Dow closed 180 points and the global geo political tensions are responsible for it. Donald Trump made two major announcements that brought US markets, first was that the summit which was scheduled with North Korea might not happen at all and second is he is not happy with the measures that China is taking in restoring trade ties with US. Both are the fundamentals which will have an impact on Asia and that is why Asia is in the red today with Hong Kong losing 300 points, Nikkei losing over 200 points.
Domestic Cues
On domestic front, Crude is still in the news with Petrol and Diesel prices going up for the 9th day straight and now everyday is a new all time high. For your understanding these are the petrol prices in important cities in India at 6AM today, 23rd May.
1. Mumbai 84.99
2. Chennai 80.11
3. Delhi 77.11
4. Kolkata 79.83
5. Bangalore 78.12
6. Hyderabad 81.43
On the Q4 front there was a disappointment in the Q4 results with almost everyone except Bata coming out with disappointing results. SBI came up with a loss of over 7,700 Crore but that is majorly due to identification of all the bad loans, stressed assets and NPAs. This was expected to be around 10,000 cr but a lower than expected figure has acted bit positive. This is the sad story that a lesser than expected loss also rallies the stock. Otherwise also, Pharma companies like Cipla and Dr. Reddy’s also have come up with bad numbers.
Following are the Q4 results expected to come today.
1. Archies
2. Bajaj Electricals
3. BPL
4. Bayer corp
5. Dhanalakshmi Bank
6. Eros Media
7. Finolex pipes
8. Godrej Industries
9. Grasim
10. IFCI
11.Jet Airways
12. NATCO Pharma
13. Shalimar Paints
14. Tata Motors
Derivatives Action
On the Derivatives front, things are looking bleak again with a lot of selling that started in Futures market as Nifty was unable to cross the 10550 mark inspite of good global factors. The overall Nifty long positions which were at 52% yesterday morning fell below 50 and closed at 49.5% which is the lowest in this series. This means there are more shorts on the system than the long positions. The options data is also confirming that with the Nifty put call ratio going down to 1.23 from 1.28 because of unwinding of puts and shorting of call positions.
What is the Nifty and Bank Nifty call for the day?
Global factors, especially a weak Asia means we will open flat to negative around 10520 levels and immediately 10500 will be tested. If that is taken out then Nifty might go and test the 50dma of 10456 and that might come as a support. So, the point is if 10500 is broken we can look for initiating options positions like a strangle which I will be tweeting you in the course of the day, depending on the premiums.