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Market Trade Setup 17th July #Nifty

Markets and News

Yesterday I talked about Nifty put call ratio being at 1.79 and its very much over heated. From this level it has to come down and the only way it can happen is when call shorting happens. Call shorting is a mildly bearish strategy and that means a temporary fall in the Nifty. At hindsight anyone can talk about it, but I just fell short of predicting the market from that angle. If I had done that I would have seen markets going to 10920 not 10980. These are the misses that one has to live with, and we all mature on them.

Today the cues are mixed with Dow Jones closing flat but there was a 13% fall in Netflix as they reported lower than expected subscriber additions. Both domestic as well as international subscriptions came lower than expected. The point one needs to understand is, at the time when Google, Amazon, Facebook and Apple are coming up with fantastic additions, Netflix is not able to catch up. This is the big worry that market watchers are worried about. The good news however was the permission given to Iran even after its deadline of November, set as a part of sanctions to sell crude is slightly relaxed. The result is Brent Crude fell to 72 dollars.

Domestic Cues

On the domestic front, the WPI inflation comes at a 5 year high at 5.77% mainly on the food and the fuel prices. Vegetable prices are at 8% in June vs 2.5% in May and fuel inflation is 16% in June vs 11% in May. The number is not at all encouraging and now the case is very strong for RBI to hike the interest rates in its August policy. Meanwhile the Q1 results of HUL were almost as expected with 12% growth in volumes and 19.2% increase in profits. The profits were marginally below expectations and now some of the brokerages are feeling that HUL is plateauing out. But my personal view is, I want to wait a bit more before concluding anything.

Quarterly Earnings

Now Q1 season has picked up and the companies declaring their Q1 is going up. Here is some of them.

1. Ashok Leyland

2. CRISIL

3. Federal Bank

4. ICICI General Insurance

5. Muthoot Capital services

6. Rallis India

7. Sintex

8. Tata Sponge

9. Zee Entertainment

Derivatives Action

On the derivatives front, as mentioned earlier yesterday morning the Nifty put call ratio was at 1.79 which is overheated and by the end of the day it came down to 1.62. There was a massive unwinding of positions on the put side with 11000 put shedding 4.4 lakh positions, 10900 put 3.9 lakh positions, 10800 put 2.9 lakh positions. When 11000 put shed 4.4 lakh positions 11000 call added 6.3 lakh positions in the open interest and that brought down the put call ratio. 11100 call also added 5.9 lakh positions and the premium there fell by 60%.

What is the Nifty call for the day?

A flat to negative Asia means, we will also open around 10930 levels and the Crude will be the news that might push the markets up. Yesterday, you might have taken positions at 10980 levels and they might be in losses now. Wait patiently and the losses will be trimmed. 11020 is a temporary resistance and if you dont want to risk exit for a small 40 point profit whenever it is reached this week. Do not take any new positions and if you want to exit the market at 10980 which is no profit and no loss you can do that. Today Nifty will find support at 10880-10900 levels and can touch 10980 on the upper end.

Market Setup 22nd May

Markets and News
Monday blues yesterday with Bank nifty doing much better than Nifty as I have predicted. So, if you had taken a long position in Bank Nifty at the lows you would be sitting on some profits. The global markets are going fine and Dow Jones yesterday gained 300 points on the statements from US that they are not pursuing with sanctions against China and that is a good news. Today Asia is flat, and there are still worries persisting. The Crude is at 79.5 dollars and now its getting prepared to break 80 and start moving upwards probably towards 90 dollars.
Crude is the biggest worry for domestic markets today as petrol and diesel prices are at an all time record high and that would not go well. The dollar index is also at 93.5 which means rupee still could be around 68 dollars and that will make the crude imports worse. Added to that is the disappointments in Q4 results. Both Colgate and Future Retail reported bad results, especially Colgate which reported just a 4% growth in volumes and it has started losing market share in its core toothpaste segment. Today is an important day with SBI, the mother bank coming up with its Q4 results and many are expecting a loss.
Following are the other Q4 results expected today.
1. Andhra Bank
2. Bata India
3. Bosch India
3. Cipla
4. Dr. Reddys
5. Future Consumenr
6. Igarashi Motors
7. Indian Oil Corporation
8. Radio City
9. State Bank of India
10. Bharat Forge
11. TVS Srichakra
12. TV today
13. VIP Industries
Derivatives Action
On the derivatives front, there has been a late surge in the premium in the nifty futures which is bringing in the belief that 10500 might be a temporary support. The Nifty futures premium which was almost zero went upto 20 points by the end of the day, though the overall long positions in Futures is at 52% which is the lowest in this series. In the options market also, the Nifty put call ratio came down to 1.28 from 1.37 and this is because of massive unwinding of puts at various strikes like 10600, 10700 and 10800 where combined 15.6 lakh positions were unwound. 10450 put has built 1.9 lakh positions and at 50 rupees premium 10400 is a firm floor for the market in this series. 10600 call has 13.8 lakh contracts created at 25 rupees premium making 10630 zone a firm roof for this series.
What is the nifty and Bank nifty call for the day?
Expect a flat opening for Nifty around 10500 mark and it might be a support as well as resistance and that depends on where the open actually happens. It is not required that you should trade everyday but if you feel like, then think of going long around 10480-10500 zone with 10550 as the target. It might work out this week if not today but if 10450 is broken you need to exit.
Bank nifty has gained somewhat yesterday and if you had taken long positions around 25700-25750 you are now at a slight profit. Keep a target of 25800-25850 and exit positions and book profits. Wait for a dip to take further call on this.

Market Setup 9th May

Markets and News – Crude Worries!
What was feared and I was talking about yesterday has come true. President Trump walks out of Iran nuclear deal and imposes sanctions on Iran. The only silver lining is UK and Russia which are the allies of US in this nuclear deal and not entirely with US on the decision to pull out. So, what should have been a disaster was stopped at a dip. US markets closed flat and Asia is in mild red and still trying to figure out what exactly is the impact of these sanctions. Dollar has strengthened and is approaching 93.5 and Crude which is much more relevant to India is moving towards 77 dollars which is a new high for 2018 and a 5 year high for the Crude.
Domestic Cues
On domestics, today the major factor for the markets is the double whammy of increased crude prices and depreciation of Rupee. IT sector might rally on weak rupee but many companies from Oil, Paints, Auto ancillaries and banks will have some impact on this. The one fundamental that can keep the market in positive mood is the tide turning towards BJP in the Karnataka elections. The Q4 results are also stabilizing with many of the Q4 numbers coming positive.
Following are the Q4 results expected to come today.
1. Eicher Motors
2. EID Sugar
3. Federal Bank
4. Hikal
5. Jindal Steel
6. Orient Hotels
7. Parag Milk
Derivatives Action
On the derivatives front, the worry of US imposing sanctions on Iran was weighing heavily and some short positions were taken in The Nifty bringing down the premium from 26 points to 17 points. However the mood is much more bullish in Options market with call buying starting from yesterday afternoon. Traders are expecting the Nifty to go up on election day and the dip in Nifty was used to buy calls that can give profits if Nifty goes up around election date. There was some put shorting also happening at 10700 put and 10950 call is getting a lot of open interest. So the floor for Nifty could be 10580 considering that 10700 put has 120 rupees premium and 11000 on upside considering 10950 call has a 45 rupee premium. The put all ratio rose marginally to 1.56 from 1.55 seen at the beginning of yesterday.
What is the Nifty and Bank Nifty call for the day?
Bank Nifty has met the given target of 26000 and even went to 26100 intraday. That means you could have easily mad 300-400 point profit on this. On Nifty I was suggesting you to exit positions considering the big fundamental coming today and it has come. If you are still holding the positions, no worries because you need to wait a bit more probably till Monday when markets will react to exit polls. If you have exited the positions, just wait and see how the day progresses today.
Re-entry or taking fresh positions is difficult onNifty today and we need to see if the fall due to sanctions will end or not. We do not know Europe reacts to Trump decision so we have to wait till 1.30PM to see how Europe reacts before we taking any positions. Bank Nifty will be weak today and if you want you can short Bank Nifty at the open around 26000 mark with 25850 as the intraday target. Wait for tweet for further updates.

Market Setup 7th May

Markets and News
The crucial 2nd week of May with so many global and local cues to watch out for. Warren Buffett says he has done the most purchases and his bet is on Apple now. That made Dow Jones jump and close 300 points above. The brent crude is above 75 dollars at 75.2 now, there is still a lot of suspense over the Iran nuclear deal and US might go ahead and cancel it at any time. All these are things that will affect markets this week. Asia is green following up the US markets with Hong Kong up over 100 points and dollar index is almost touching 93.
Domestic Cues
On domestics we have a mountain of fundamentals to deal with starting with Karnataka elections scheduled this Saturday. Everyday is bringing some news and the tide seems to be slowly turning in BJP’s favour and that might mean lots of longs might build up before going into the polls. The IIP and CPI data is also scheduled this week and RBI has announced its decisions to buy back bonds worth 10,000 crore as OMO and that might lead to fall in the bond yields. We also have Q4 results coming in and today its ICICI which will come up with its Q4.
Following are the other companies that are coming up with their Q4.
1. Dwarkesh sugars
2. Exide India
3. ICICI bank
4. Inox Leisure
5. Pfizer
6. Talwalkers
7. Tata Chemicals
8. Tata Coffee
9. Trident
10. Vijaya bank
11. Zee learn
Derivatives Action
On the derivatives front, there was a lot of action on Friday with demand coming back to Futures positions are Nifty started going towards 10600. The premium on the Nifty Futures went to 40 points from 26 points and the overall long positions went up to 56% again from 54%. On the options market also puts and calls are going neck and neck. 3 short puts for every 2 short calls and 3 calls bought for every 2 puts bought. That kept the Nifty put call ratio almost flat at 1.49 from 1.50 seen at the beginning of Friday. The 11000 call has the maximum accumulated open interest of 57.9 lakh contracts while 10500 put has maximum accumulated open interest of 48 lakhs. Plus the news that derivatives markets will trade from 9am to 11.55pm starting from 1st October 2018 will also push some demand to Futures and options market.
What is the Nifty and bank Nifty call for the day?
Patience is the key when you are in the market and two long positions you took at 10700 and 10650 will be in losses now, but if you can hold your nerve you will see that by the end of the week you would have met your target. Today Nifty will open positive around 10650 and today it might test 10700 levels and downside 10620 to 10600 will be the support. You can hold on, believe in fundamentals and look for the target of 10800 to be achieved sometimes this week.
Bank Nifty has achieved its target and today ICICI bank results might create some nervousness there. Try to buy bank Nifty at anything below 25700 and look for a target of 26000 to be achieved anytime this week.