Tag Archives: Congress

2nd phase of Lok Sabha Elections 2019 #IndiaVotes #LokSabha2019

1st phase of Lok Sabha elections 2019 got successfully completed on 11th of April with the voter turnout reading at 69.4%. This 69.4% is notch higher than the overall 2014 elections turnout of 66.40%. We are 2 days away from the 2nd phase and the last 5 days after the 1st phase got over, things have gone wild for both the parties. Election Commission banned Modi biopic right before 1st phase and now EC has banned several leaders from campaigning for their communal or unethical usage of words. Yogi Adityanath for 72 hours, Mayawati for 48 hours, Azam Khan for 72 hours and Maneka Gandhi for 48 hours. These are some big events in the last 5 days.

18th is the day of Second Phase and this time there are 96 seats which will go for polling on Thursday. Vellore seat polling has been cancelled after huge amounts of cash were seized in the house of a DMK leader. Like last Tuesday, First, let’s look at the top 10 constituencies of the Phase 2 elections.

1. Thoothukudi: Tamil Nadu is all about DMK and AIADMK. With sympathy running high it’s expected that DMK will win or rather sweep entire Tamil Nadu. But last few days things are getting better for AIADMK-BJP combine. Tuthukudi is the place where state BJP president Dr Tamilisai Soundarrajan is taking on Kanimozhi, the favourite daughter of Late Karunanidhi. With sympathy factor intact, things look a bit tough for Tamilisai.

2. Chennai Central: Sam Paul is contesting from PMK which is another ally of BJP. But then this is not going to make any difference as it seems, Dayanidhi Maran from DMK, two time MP and brother of Kalanidhi Maran is expected to win this seat back.

3. Nilgiris: We have the 2G scam acquitted A Raja from DMK fighting against Thyagarajan from AIADMK. This seat is more important for the people and it’s for them to decide either to vote a corrupt leader or someone else.

4. Siva Ganga: Another blockbuster place. After Chidambaram, we have seen that his son Karthi being pushed into politics. Yet another dynasty mode of politics starting in Tamil Nadu. Will Karthi win his father’s seat or are the corruption charges on the family will prove costly for them? This time BJP candidate H Raja is taking Karthi Chidambaram at Shiva Ganga.

5. Bangalore North: This is the seat of former CM and Union minister DV Sadananda Gowda. This looks more or less like a victory for BJP until or unless any miracles save Congress;

6. Mandya: Interesting story coming from this constituency. Nikhil Kumaraswamy the son of HD Kumara Swamy and the Grandson to Deva Gowda is fighting against the actor Ambareesh wife Sumalatha. Sumalatha is going Independent but is being supported by BJP. The Story is, though JDS and Congress are fighting together, there is a section of Congress leaders from Mandya who are secretly supporting Sumalatha. So, will Sumalatha stage an upset and win Mandya or will Nikhil trump her to retain this traditional JDS seat?

7. Chikballapur: This could be one of the easiest win for INC in South India. Bacchegowda is contesting from BJP but then his opponent is Veerappa Moily from Congress. Veerappa Moily has been a Minister of Petroleum, Corporate affairs, Power in UPA and has been a powerful leader from this region. With JDS also supporting him, the caste equations indicate a clear victory for Moiley.

8. Mathura: Going back to North India. We have Hema Malini contesting from BJP and Mahesh Pathak from Congress. Hema Malini as we know is the famous actress and for the first time, Dharmender campaigned for the Party and his Wife. Hema Malini has already won LS Seat before and will be looking to continue the same this elections.

9. Fatehpur Sikri: This is going to be the close contest between two leaders from BJP and INC. BJP has fielded Sadvi Niranjan Jyothi who is known for her controversial remarks on the opposition. On the other side we have Raj Babbar the actor from Congress. Close contest.

10. Srinagar: This is a going to be an easy win for NC Congress. Farooq Abdullah is the famous J&K leader and no doubt he would win this Seat and we will all see 80 plus Abdulla triumph again from Srinagar.

Coming now a little bit to the statistics, the second phase elections will cover 12 states and the union territory of Pondicherry. Tamil Nadu is the only state where all constituencies are going for polls while in other 11 states it going to be just another phase of the election.

There are totally 1590 candidates in the fray and let’s look at the 2014 results.

List of winners for this 96 in last elections: 
• Tamil Nadu (38) NDA 2 UPA 0 Others 36
• Pondicherry (1) NDA 1 UPA 0 Others 0
• Karnataka (14) NDA 6 UPA 8 Others 0
• Orissa (5) NDA 0 UPA 0 Others 5
• Chattisgarh (3) NDA 3 UPA 0 Others 0
• Maharashtra (10) NDA 8 UPA 2 Others 0
• North East (7) NDA 4 UPA 2 Others 1
• West Bengal (3) NDA 1 UPA 0 Others 2
• Bihar (5) NDA 1 UPA 4 Others 0
• Uttar Pradesh (8) NDA 8 UPA 0 Others 0
• Jammu Kashmir (2) NDA 1 UPA 0 Others 1

So out of the total seats 96,
• NDA won 38
• UPA won 12
• Others won 46

Before ending the post today thought the number of seats that BJP holds look smaller in size one needs to go little deep. Of the 38 seats by NDA, only 27 are held by BJP which means 11 are coming from allies. So diving into the data, we must understand that in the last elections BJP went with only 1 ally (PMK) in Tamil Nadu and won 2 seats. One each shared. This way if we see, BJP has got an alliance with AIADMK now and this is going to be crucial. The mood of Tamil Nadu is quickly changing and the possibility of winning 8-10 seats is very much there for NDA.

The same way BJP is making inroads in Bihar, Bengal and Odisha where BJP tally will improve from 2014. If the results from these three states come good and in the other states if NDA holds on then we can see that NDA may win in the range of 40-45 seats. Not much time left, let’s wait and watch how the 2day of polling goes.

Election drama from the ‘K’ States in South India. Kerala and Karnataka. #LokSabha2019

South Indian dishes are so different from North India just like the politics of South India and North India. Like North India, South India doesn’t actually vote for the National Parties but they chose regional parties over the National parties. It’s the same when it comes to Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. But then there are two states Kerala and Karnataka which are in line with the North Indian states.

Both Kerala and Karnataka have had the history of voting National Parties to power which is why we don’t get to see major regional parties in these two states. Kerala for its own reasons revolves between Congress and CPM. Karnataka votes between Congress and BJP. The late 20th-century entrant into Karnataka was Deva Gowda’s JDS.

Karnataka had been a special place for Congress till 1991 where they had won almost 80%-100% seats from 1951 to 1991. Of the total 28 seats in Karnataka, Congress was winning 25-28 seats till 1991. Things changed then and the major shift happened in 1996 when JDS led by Deva Gowda won 16 seats and became the Prime Minister. Then the second shift happened in 2004 where Karnataka started to vote for BJP and BJP was winning anywhere between 17-19 seats.

Karnataka is divided into four regions. Below are the regions and the seat numbers part of those regions.

  • Mumbai Karnataka which has seats like Belgaum, Hubli etc
  • Coastal Karnataka which has seats like Mangalore, Udupi etc
  • Hyderabad Karnataka which has news like Gulbarga, Bellary, Raichur etc
  • Old Mysore which is the largest with 13 seats that include Bangalore, Mysore, Tumkur etc

Of the 28 seats and in the four regions, BJP will win in Mumbai Karnataka and Coastal Karnataka as these are traditional BJP seats and they are with BJP for last 15 years. These two regions are strongholds of BJP, Hyderabad Karnataka and Old Mysore are the JDS+Congress strongholds. With JDS and Congress coming together the vote share will surely increase for the coalition which will pose a challenge to BJP. This time there could be a vertical split with 28 seats going 14-14 to BJP and Cong-JDS combine. This is only because of Cong-JDS alliance else, BJP would have again crossed 18 seat mark.

Kerala the fortress for Communist Party of India (Marxist), but only alternatively.

Kerala has been the place for CPM and Congress for a long time. Kerala is divided into two regions, North Kerala and South Kerala. Kerala has got 20 seats and the polling for all the 20 seats will be on April 23rd. In the 2014 elections, UDF led by Congress won 12 seats and LDF led by CPM won 8 seats. That’s the competition between the Congress and Communist party in Kerala.

There are some surprises which could come up in this elections in Kerala and that could be a win for BJP for the first time. BJP is hoping to win two seats. One is the Thiruvananthapuram seat which they lost by a small margin and second is Thrissur which has sizable Hindu population and from where famous actor Suresh Gopi is contesting from BJP ticket. One seat where BJP can give some competition to CPM is the Kasargode seat where religious polarization due to the killing of RSS workers might make the Hindus to shift votes to BJP.

But the tide is expected to be in the way of Congress this time with 14-15 seats coming their way. Wayanad is the seat that has caught all the attention after Rahul Gandhi has nominated himself from there, this decision of Rahul is being highly trolled by BJP. But then ultimately, Wayanad is a strong seat for Congress and with Rahul contesting it’s going to an easy job for INC and Rahul Gandhi to become part of 17th Lok Sabha. CPM is losing badly this time with just 3 seats coming their way and BJP could be the surprise with 2 wins and 1 very tough race.

So, of the 48 seats from Karnataka and Kerala, Congress is expected to win 28-30 seats, 14 each from Karnataka and Kerala. BJP is only expected to win 15-17 seats. The other 3 seats are going to CPM. This means that the ‘K’ states are giving huge wins for UPA led by Congress.

Time for the Lok Sabha Elections 2019! #IndiaVotes #LokSabha2019

The 17th Lok Sabha Elections will be underway in less than 48 hours and the campaigning has come to an end today at 5PM. The polls for 1st phase will be on Thursday 11th April for 91 Lok Sabha seats covering 20 states. Of the 20 states going for polls, 10 states are going for polls completely. This means on the very first day of elections the campaigning of elections for 10 states will be over.

The 10 most important seats that go to polls on 11th April and the details of the contestants and little trivia about them.

1. Arunachal East: North East has turned out to be BJP’s new fortress after 2014. BJP was able to either stitch right coalitions or with their ground level, hard work was able to build faith in the people of North East in the last 5 years. That was seen in the various Assembly election of North Eastern States. Well, coming to the Arunachal East seat, Kiran Rijiju is fighting for BJP and James Lowancha for Congress. Rijiju is a powerful leader who is the present union minister of state for Home affairs and had played an important role in Balakot Air Strikes.

2. Srikakulam: Andhra Pradesh is no clear slate for any party. There are voices giving wins for either party but nothing seems to be clear. Ram Mohan Naidu contesting for TDP is the son of famous Yerran Naidu. Ram Mohan is the sitting MP and TDP will hope to retain this seat. D Srinivas from YSRCP and P Samba Murthy from BJP are other contestants.

3. Vizianagaram: Another important seat from Andhra Pradesh. Basically because of the competition in this area. Ashok Gajapathi Raju is contesting for TDP who has worked as Civil Aviation Minister for NDA when TDP was with BJP. Though a minister, he seems to be losing this seat as the YSRCP wave is building strongly. B Chandra Shekar is YSRCP candidate and P Sanyasi Raju is BJP candidate.

4. Visakhapatnam: A 3rd important seat from Andhra Pradesh. Very important for BJP. This is the only seat which the BJP is expecting to win in AP. D Purandeshwari, daughter of NTR is contesting for BJP. MVV Satyanarayana is YSRCP candidate and MV Sribharat is TDP candidate. Purandeshwari last contested from Rajampet and lost by 1.8 lakh votes. Vizag being an urban seat, BJP expecting a win here.

5. Jamui: Bihar now, Chirag Paswan son of Ram Vilas Paswan is contesting for NDA (BJP). Bhudev Choudhury is from RLSP. The story is that Ram Vilas Paswan is a veteran leader who has been a minister in the Indian government since 1989. He gets the mood of the people well before everyone and always sides the winning team. This time again he chose NDA by asking his Son to contest. Victory very probable.

6. Nagpur: One from Maharashtra, the top leader of BJP, Nitin Gadkari will be contesting from Nagpur. Very famous leader and has got the power to win the battle easily. Very well accepted in his constituency and is known for his work as Road Minister and Ganga Cleaning project. Sure win for BJP

this one. Contesting against is Nana Patole from Congress.

7. Nizamabad: Moving to Telangana, K Kavitha is the candidate from TRS and from the opposition is Madhu Yashki Goud from Congress. Though we have the leader from BJP, D Aravind, the battle is between the two big leaders of INC and TRS. Though it seems most likely that the people will choose Kavitha as their winner, INC will look to give tough competition.

8. Secunderabad: 2nd one from Telangana, BJP has fielded in the next-gen leader G. Kishan Reddy and Congress has got Anjan Kumar Yadav and TRS has their young leader Sai Kiran Yadav. This is the seat of reckoning for BJP, this is the only seat which has the most possible chance of Victory in Telangana. But the things aren’t looking right for BJP and Kishan Reddy who has been hoping for a Victory might have to wait for more time.

9. Hyderabad: 3rd one from Hyderabad. No question raised and no doubts raised, this will be yet another victory for the chief of AIMIM Asaddudin Owaisi. Feroz Khan is contesting for Congress who jumped from TDP. But the things won’t change and Asaddudin will win Hyderabad for 5th Time.

10. Muzaffarnagar: This is a very interesting battle from Uttar Pradesh. Ajit Singh is contesting from RLD and Sanjeev Kumar Balyan is fighting for BJP. In the last elections in 2014, BJP won this seat with as many as 3.5 lakh votes. This was when the parties were scattered and BJP cruised through on arithmetically. This time as per voter share BJP will be losing the battle as BJP is going alone against the powerful Jat-Yadav-Muslim-Dalit combine of RLD-SP-BSP. Very unpredictable seat.

Facts: 2014 Elections Results of Phase 1 that has 91 seats

  • NDA won 38
  • UPA won 7
  • TDP won 18
  • TRS won 11
  • YSRCP of Jagan won 9
  • Biju Janata Dal in Odisha won 4
  • AITC of Mamta Banerjee won 2
  • AIMIM won 1
  • PDP won 1
  • Number of Constituencies 91
  • No. of candidates 1285
  • Number of polling centres 1,69,400

Let’s wait and watch how the polling goes and who wins what!

Will BJP Win Uttar Pradesh in Lok Sabha? Battle in Western UP #LOKSABHA2019

Right then, I am today going to look at the highest populated state in the Country which is also the State with highest no of seats. Uttar Pradesh has got 80 Lok Sabha seats which are 14.6% of overall seats in India. Being the largest state it’s not easy or rather not right to restrict it to one post, that’s why Uttar Pradesh will be discussed in two posts dividing it into Western Uttar Pradesh and Eastern Uttar Pradesh.

Both Western and Eastern Uttar Pradesh has got 40 seats each. Places like Mathura, Agra, Noida, Dadri, Muzaffarnagar come under the Western UP and places like Lucknow, Kanpur, Varanasi and Prayagraj come under Eastern UP. Looking at it from district wise, there are 75 districts and 80 seats which means for every district UP has got minimum 1 seat.

In today’s post, we would look at the Western Part of UP which is influenced by North Indian Culture. For info, Eastern part of UP is influenced by Bihari related factors.

Politically, entire UP is divided into 5 regions and they are:
  • 1. Braj
  • 2. Bundelkhand
  • 3. Avadh
  • 4. Purvanchal
  • 5. Bagelkhand
Parliament Seats in Uttar Pradesh 2019

These are the 5 regions of UP. Western Part of UP covers Braj which is the biggest one of all the 5 which is called also Vrindavan. Today, we are going to look at all the seats of Braj and part of Bundelkhand.

Historically, UP has been voting for the Congress till 1977 since Independence. In 1977 UP voted Janata party to power which stayed till 1980. Things changed again when Congress was voted back to power from 1980 and continued till 1989, in the year 1985 – Congress won 84 out of 85 available seats (Uttarakhand 5 seats). Till then Congress was winning with a good majority, but things got changed with the issue of Ram Jhanma Bhoomi coming up. This meant that the voters were divided on the basis of religion and caste. This helped BJP win the elections and as UP got divided in the name of caste and religion. Let’s look at the 5 major parties in Uttar Pradesh.

  • 1. BJP – Bharatiya Janata party (Brahmins, Kshetriyas, Vysyas, OBCs)
  • 2. INC – Indian National Congress (OBCs and Muslims)
  • 3. SP – Samajwadi party (Muslims and Yadavs)
  • 4. BSP – Bahujan Samajwadi party (Dalits)5. RLD – Rashtriya Lok Dal (Jats)
How are the Elections 2019 going to be?

When we look at the party-wise support, BJP is the party for Hindus, Congress is the party for Muslims, BSP is the party for SC, SP is the party for Muslims and Yadav. Here, each party is recognised with one religion or one community based on their maximum vote share in the past.

Looking at the demographics of Uttar Pradesh community wise.

  • a. OBCs – 40%
  • b. Dalits – 21%
  • c. Forward Caste – 23%
  • d. Muslims – 19%

Some more points: OBC is divided between BJP, SP and Congress. Dalits completely back BSP and 19% Muslims will majorly back SP. So just going by the arithmetic, if both SP and BSP come together then the voter share of both the parties will easily get to 40%. This is a danger that ruling BJP is aware of and are trying everything possible to make some inroads. Last time in 2014, BJP won 73 seats out of 80 seats which were possible only because the contest was quadrangular. Thus it’s visible how important it is for a party to grab the vote shares of other communities in the state which has got Caste based voters.

Those leaders who matter the most this Lok Sabha Elections!


Going little more deeper in the data, there are 13 seats of the 40 Western UP seats where the Muslims vote share is more than the average of 19% and there are 10 seats which have a Dalit population which is more than average of 21%. Just think if these seats go completely in favour of SP+BSP+RLD alliance then they would take easily 23 seats. So, I would predict SP+BSP+RLD to win seats in the range of 20-25 and BJP to win the remaining 15-20 seats. Next week Tuesday, I will come up with the Eastern UP Seats and the updates on the issues that affect the voter in UP.

Elections mood – South India twin States: Andhra Pradesh & Telangana #LOKSabha2019

Today the talking point is not one but two states and both are the South Indian states. For the first time, these states will hold Lok Sabha elections as separate states. It’s the Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. Andhra Pradesh before bifurcation was the third joint highest seat state with West Bengal. After the division though Andhra got 25 seats and Telangana got 17 seats which total to 42 seats.

Fact Check: The total no of registered voters in Andhra are 3.69cr which is compared to 3.68cr in 2014. Whereas smaller state Telangana has got 2.8cr voters . So almost we have got 6.5 crore people voting in this Lok Sabha elections 2019.

Andhra Pradesh:

Andhra Pradesh is also going for Assembly elections along with the Lok Sabha elections. With both State and Central elections falling on the same day, and for many other reasons the Andhra Pradesh elections are much more exciting than the Telangana Elections. If we look at the contest, in Andhra this is going to be a 5 cornered contest. We have Telugu Desam Party (TDP), YSR Congress Party (YSRCP), Jana Sena+BSP+CPI+CPM, Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) and Congress (INC).  

CBN – PAWAN – JAGAN!

Off the 5 parties, Jana Sena is the newly entrant party which is mostly dominated by the Kapu community, Pawan Kalyan the party founder was clever to bring coalition with left parties like CPI + CPM and also the Dalit party.

There is nothing to talk about the Congress as the Congress is completely non-existent and are in complete tough position. Same goes with the BJP who are not existent but are eager for the fighting every seat.  

When we look at the leaders from parties: TDP has got lot of experienced people like Ram Mohan Naidu from Srikakulam. Ashok Gajapati Vijayanagngram and  Surya Bhaskar reddy from Kurnool.

The opposition party has got two leaders who are the relatives of Jagan Mohan Reddy and they are Avinash reddy from Cuddapah, Mithun reddy from Rajampet.

Thus the fight for Lok Sabha 2019 in Andhra will be fought by 3 parties majorly. Congress and BJP might not win even a single seat. YSRCP and TDP will be the parties who will win the most. The point here is the entry of Jana Sena party has started to hurt TDP. That’s because the voters of TDP also fall under the category of Kappu.

Now let’s look at the most easiest State to estimate the results: Telangana

Firstly TRS has got no opponents who are strong enough to defeat KCR and his party in any seat. After the assembly elections the wave has proven the amount of support he has got from the people of Telangana. As expected TDP is not contesting the Telangana Elections. But Congress has decided that they will still fight and not give up. They have got people who have the ability to win in Telangana.  Madhu Yashki goud from Nizamabad, Revanth reddy from Malkajgiri, Uttam Kumar reddy from Nalagonda and many more good leaders are fighting for Congress.  

TRS will ride on their big leaders and as well as on the Party’s and KCR wave. But the one seat which is definitely in hands of KCR is the Nizamabad where Kavitha is contesting.  The one which BJP will hope to win is the Secunderabad seat which is gone to Kishan reddy.

If the magic of KCR is still working, TRS will win 14-15 seats, Congress might win 1-2. This would mean it is going to be a complete sweep.

Now,  Andhra Pradesh and Telangana have got 42 seats and we have a completely new National alliance which includes AP and Telangana and that’s called as Federal Front. Federal front has got TRRS and YSRCP as members. Going by the figures it’s possible that Federal Front will win almost near to 35 seats.

Till now we have looked at Four different states from four sides of the Country. Maharashtra is in the favour of NDA, Tamil Nadu will be held by DMK+Congress, West Bengal will be once again swept by TMC which is the Third Front and AP+Telangana will be swept by Federal Front. Things are turning really interesting!!

Indian Stock Markets are on a roll as Nifty rallies 2.5% in the last 4 days and 6.75% in the last 3 weeks!

Hello Everyone, this post is a continuation to the last week. In the last week, I had written and explained about the movement of the NIFTY during the General Elections 2014 and compared them to the present scenario. Nothing has changed when it comes to the political decisions are concerned in the last week, but the mood of the market has entirely changed. Last Tuesday NIFTY closed at 10987 and today it closed at 11301 which is 2.85% up move. The only big event that has happened in last one week is the release of election dates for Elections 2019.

Election Commission has decided the dates for the Lok Sabha Elections 2019 on Saturday. Seven phase election is scheduled to begin on the 11th of April and conclude on the 19th of May. Counting is scheduled to be held on May 23rd which is a week later than the last two General Elections. This week has begun on a very different note with NIFTY going up by 1.2% and 1.19% on both the days. This kind of move is only possible when there is a lot of buying in the Delivery channel. Delivery buying is the type of buying where the stocks are bought for investment purpose. Usually, delivery buying is for a minimum of 2 weeks to 3 months.

But should there be a rally before the elections and the important results?

Simply because markets are the leading indicators for the Indian economy. Leading indicator here means something which has the hint of future and tries to jump into the future for a better valuation. Markets everywhere read the future and they trade accordingly.

Who is this Mr/Ms Market?

Obviously, it is the Public. The market is we the people of the country. This includes the High net-worth individuals, individual investors, foreign investors, mutual funds etc. So it is basically the people’s opinion. Keeping it simple, we can call the investors as Domestic and Foreign. Right now we can say that 70% of contribution comes from Foreign investors and 30% comes from Domestic investors. That makes it more clear that the Foreign investors believe that there is positive news coming from the elections. The positive news here at the moment is the re-election of NDA to power.

That proves that it’s the people who take the market forward and these people include all kinds.

How long will this rally Sustain?

Going by the past rally during the General Elections 2014, it was seen that NIFTY was at 6000 at the beginning of February month and on the day of results NIFTY was trading at 7142. This is an astonishing growth of 19% in just 3 and a half months. Going by this simple equation, NIFTY has gone from 10600 in the middle of February to 11320 in the middle of March, which is again a 6.75% growth in just 1 month. With the results being pushed a week we can conservatively expect the Markets to hit 12,000 minimum on the results day. This will mean the Markets will move another 6% up from tomorrow. I repeat 6% is minimum growth it has got all legs to hit 10-12% as well. All this is on the narrative that BJP will come back to the Power in 2019 Elections.

What’s in the store for Investors?

NIFTY 50 Stocks and their returns during build up to General Elections 2014 and General Elections 2019.

Returns, High Returns!! Yes, in the last post also I have discussed how the stocks have made big money from March 2014 to May 2014. The average returns of the portfolio of the 10 stocks from NIFTY gave 31.38% in only 80 days. The same portfolio when calculated this year from Feb 28th till date i.e. 12th March has given 6.7% average returns. By going with the past trends it’s clear that you can make a minimum of 20% returns. Don’t wait and invest in the markets. Especially in the large-cap NIFTY stocks for safe returns. My feeling is obviously to invest and make ‘BIG’ money by the time counting day comes. #NiftyNeedsNamo

Okay! That’s about the Markets and Elections. If this is how interesting the Elections are turning out to be, how can one miss the action? I wouldn’t want to and I hope there are more like me. So, for the next 10 weeks leading to the counting day of Lok Sabha elections 2019, I will be writing posts relating to Elections 2019 for two times in a week. Once on a Tuesday and the other one on Friday. In these posts, I will be writing about the situations, opinions polls, who’s ahead and who’s losing, what each leader are saying and doing, and analyse the mood of the nation leading up to next 72 days!

What’s the outlook for Indian Stock Markets for the next 3 months?

What’s the outlook for Indian Stock Markets for the next 3 months?

Politics is one of the major fundamentals in the movement of the Stock Market. Generally, markets react very sharply to any kind of unfavourable measures taken by the Govt for the economy. So when it comes to elections, the moment the ‘markets’ don’t get the desired result the reaction would be severe to watch. There are days when Stock markets have shown rapid upwards and downwards movement riding on the outcome of the elections. Till early 2012 stock markets were solidly behind UPA led by Congress. But a series of scams that took place later changed the sentiment and from mid-2013 it wanted the NDA led by BJP to come to power.


The measurement starts from February 2014, exactly 5 years ago when there were opinion polls that put NDA ahead of UPA. That is where Nifty started its journey from 6000. This mark of 6000 was reached way back in 2008 and from then on Nifty was stuck there. By the time results came towards the end of May Nifty scaled 7000. Then the victory of BJP in Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Haryana in late 2014 pushed it to 8000 mark. Just before the results of Delhi and Bihar in March 2015 Nifty scaled 9000. But the losses for BJP in both the states pushed Nifty back all the way to 7000 and from there it started its journey back again upwards. Just before demonetization, Nifty scaled 9000 again November 2016 but it took the massive victory of Uttar Pradesh in March 2017 that made Nifty to capture 10000. The subsequent victories in Gujarat in November 2017 and Karnataka in early 2018 pushed Nifty to 11000 mark. But that was the end. The losses in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan brought it back to 10500 levels and now we are back to the situation again we started 5 years ago, with Lok Sabha elections, just around the corner.

Here are the dates of different elections in the past for your reference.

2014 May – General Elections
2014 November – Maharashtra, Haryana & Jharkhand
2015 March – Bihar & Delhi
2016 November – Demonetization
2017 March – Uttar Pradesh
2017 November – Gujarat
2018 April – Karnataka
2018 December – Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh & Rajasthan

If the things really turn out to be negative for BJP and if so-called 3rd Front supported by Congress forms the Government, we are to see a big fall in the markets and NIFTY could well go to 6000 mark yet again. This 6000 mark is something that Nifty tested in 2008, 2010 and 2014. Now we might go back to where we have started. Even if Congress forms a minority Govt also thing won’t be different and we might test the 6000 levels. In another scenario, if things change for good and BJP starts gaining its momentum in the last few left out days, with the mood of the Nation NIFTY will also react positively and it can hit 11,000 after the budget. This is only because of a positive feeling about the Govt.

Once the results come in for the BJP then we shall see the NIFTY moving all the way towards 12000 and by the time Modi takes the oath again, he will be welcomed by another all-time high of 12000 on Nifty, just like how it welcomed Modi in 2014 with an all-time high of 7000! So, interesting 100 days ahead of us!

Indian General Elections Predictions 2019 – Mid Year Predictions – #LokSabha2019

BJP will not win a majority, but nobody else other than BJP can form a Govt in 2019!

Hello Everyone. Tuesday is here and I am back with my final post on 2019 Elections Predictions. I have in my last 4 posts on elections predicted the seats that the parties are going to win in the coming 2019 elections. We have seen that it is BJP which is ahead but not enough to win the elections on their own capacity. Apart from this there are few more very important points to be considered which are crucial. Standing on today as per the present situations my predictions are given below:

NDA = 289, UPA = 104, Third Front = 90 and Fourth Front = 60!

NDA
  1. BJP                         240
  2. JDU(Bihar) 19
  3. Shiv Sena             16
  4. Others                  14
UPA
  1. INC                        78
  2. DMK                     5
  3. RJD                       8
  4. NCP                      4
  5. Others                 9
Third Front
  1. TDP                       8
  2. Kamal Haasan    6
  3. CPI/CPM              8
  4. TMC                      30
  5. SP+BSP                 32
  6. Others                 6
Fourth Front
  1. TRS                       10
  2. YSRCP                   13
  3. Rajinikanth         19
  4. BJD                       16
  5. Others                 2

So, it is wrong to assume that all the Non-NDA and Non-UPA parties are in the third front. You also should understand that there is a Fourth Front which is opposite to the third front and cannot align with the third front. So, if UPA aligns with third front, it won’t get the support of fourth front. For example, TRS cannot align with congress because it is directly fighting Congress in Telangana. Similarly, TDP cannot align with YSRCP because they are fighting each other in AP. That presents me with 5 takeaways from the predictions I made in last 4 weeks.

  1. BJP is all set(?) with the help of its allies to retain the power in 2019!

BJP is sitting on 240 seats and by adding the seats of its allies the tally goes to 289. Which means there are 49 seats which are coming from its allies. BJP last time had 282 seats and this time they are at 240 seats and that’s fall of 42 seats. The two parties with maximum support to BJP are Shiv Sena and JDU in Bihar. These are the two parties which may change their minds at the eleventh hour. Though it’s not alarming news for BJP its surely a call to do something big to come back to power on its own. Because we never know in politics who jumps the castle.

  1. Third Front is not as strong as we think because we have Fourth Front which got emerged from third front!

Not very long ago there were articles written and posted on the birth of ‘Third Front’ which as per a class of journalists would form the next Government of India. So to put this argument to an end, my predictions give Third Front just 90 seats. That’s not even 1/3rd. If we add congress seats to Third front the tally goes to 194. That is nothing close to majority. The Fourth Front is the actual new born baby because there was a cold war between parties of third front and that lead to unofficial withdrawal. That has brought fourth front into scene which may not support BJP directly but give outside support if needed. So 60 seats are huge number and let’s remember that a coalition made out of 10 parties can never rule country!

  1. BJP is losing seats in Northern India and Western India but it is picking up seats in Southern and Eastern India.

BJP overall has 240 seats which looks to be a good number, but when you look into the statistics you will know that BJP is losing in the strong holds like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Maharashtra. Each state there is fall of average 30% fall in the seats won compared to 2014. But the good news being the BJP’s has strengthened in Eastern India and Southern India. Though there is gain in south and east the gain is not good enough to beat the fall in west and north India.

  1. This is perfect battle because the BJP’s Loss is INC’s gain!

If we see BJP is losing 42 seats from its 2014 tally of 282 and INC is winning 34 seats more than what it won in 2014. It shows how nicely INC is able to hit the areas where BJP is losing. We can even conclude that these numbers were won by BJP in 2014 majorly because of Modi wave. The loss of 40 seats is not big in a General election but it’s the pick that matters. That’s where Congress is doing really well to pick up the seats which BJP is losing.

  1. Will BJP form the Govt or Will the Karnataka Scenario hit the Nation in the month of May 2019?

Yes, BJP has 240 seats and its alliance combined takes it to 289 which is 15 seats more than the Majority mark. But the big worries for BJP are coming from Nitish Kumar of JDU whose 19 seats could cost them the majority.  Shiv Sena which is somehow dissatisfied with BJP and if Shiv sena moves out then NDA seats will fall further to 254. That will also mean UPA+Third Front tally will go to 194+16+19=229.  If leaders like Mamta Banerjee, then somehow manage to get KCR and Naveen Patnaik on board to support from outside then that 229 gets another 26 seats which takes their total to 255.

So now we are at NDA 254 and UPA+ThirdFront+JDU+Shivsena+BJD+TRS at 255. The climax then shifts to Tamilnadu where Thalaiva Rajnikanth is expected to win 19 seats. Whoever gets those 19 will cross that magical figure of 272!!

Knowing Rajnikanth well, it’s not tough to say that he will throw his weight behind Modi than behind Congress or Kamal Hassan.

So, final conclusion is that as per the present situations if elections are conducted, it is clear that BJP will win the 2019 elections in any conditions until or unless there is drastic change in the political scenario! Hope you liked this five-part series of mid-year 2018 predictions!!!

Rajya Sabha – Upper House of the Indian Parliament and its Election Process

Rajya Sabha – Upper House of the Indian Parliament

Today I am going to talk about Rajya Sabha elections that’s going to happen in 10 days times for 58 seats. The last time we had Rajya Sabha elections, I was awake till 2AM in the night to see if BJP could defeat Congress party’s big nominee Ahmed Patel in Gujarat. There was so much drama that unfolded and finally Congress won narrowly.

Writing about Rajya Sabha election makes me feel that I am going back to my Social Studies text book and to my School Days. Rajya Sabha as we all know is the upper house of the Parliament which plays significant role in the three pillars of the democracy which are executive, judiciary and legislature. Rajya Sabha though is a house with maximum of 250 members as per our constitution but at present as per our law we have 245 members.

Out of 245, 233 Rajya Sabha members are elected by the elected representatives. Here the elected representatives are the Members of State Legislative Assembly. The remaining 12 are the nominated by President for their contributions to art, culture, science and social services. Presently few nominated people that we know are Sachin Tendulkar (Social Service), Subramaniam Swamy (Economics), Mary Kom (Sport) and Rekha (Art).

The major difference in both the houses of parliament is the longevity. Lok Sabha the lower house of the parliament gets dissolved every 5 years where as Rajya Sabha is perpetual and lasts for ever. Lok Sabha members get re-elected every term of 5 years where as Rajya Sabha elections happen every 2 years where 1/3rd of its total gets retired and are filled up through elections. Member of Rajya Sabha hold the seat for 6 years compared to Lok Sabha member for 5 years.

Following are the list of seats for each state and union territory. Off all the States Uttar Pradesh has the highest number of seats with 31 followed by Maharashtra (19) and Tamil Nadu (18).

Name of state and union territory           No. of Seats

Andhra Pradesh                                              11

Arunachal Pradesh                                         1

Assam                                                               7

Bihar                                                                  16

Chhattisgarh                                                    5

Goa                                                                    1

Gujarat                                                              11

Haryana                                                            5

Himachal Pradesh                                          3

Jammu & Kashmir                                          4

Jharkhand                                                         6

Karnataka                                                         12

Kerala                                                                9

Madhya Pradesh                                            11

Maharashtra                                                    19

Manipur                                                            1

Meghalaya                                                       1

Mizoram                                                           1

Nagaland                                                          1

National Capital Territory of Delhi             3

Odisha                                                               10

Puducherry                                                       1

Punjab                                                               7

Rajasthan                                                         10

Sikkim                                                                1

Tamil Nadu                                                      18

Telangana                                                        7

Tripura                                                              1

Uttar Pradesh                                                  31

Uttarakhand                                                    3

West Bengal                                                    16

Nominated                                                       12

Total                                                                  245

 

How are these Rajya Sabha members elected?

Let me take a situation and explain this. For example, if we take Uttar Pradesh it has total 31 seats and in the coming election the 1/3rd of its composition is up for re-election that is 10 seats. The Uttar Pradesh legislative assembly strength is 404. Out of which BJP and its alliance have 324 and opposition has only 78.

Now for the calculations!

The 404 seats are taken and divided by the number of seats to be filled up +1. It’s like this 404/10+1. That is 404/11= 36.72. So, to elect member of Rajya Sabha from Uttar Pradesh he/she needs to get 37 votes. With 324 seats in their pocket BJP will win 8 seats without any problem and opposition will win 2. This is the case in Uttar Pradesh, I would not want to get into the games and strategies that are getting developed. I will deal with them in my next Tuesday post. That would have all the political game plans. So, the election day of 23 becomes very crucial to see if BJP will win 8+ or opposition takes away 2.

Let’s take another example of our home state of Telangana, it has got 119 legislative assembly seats and total of 7 Rajya Sabha seats. Number of seats up for election are 3. TRS has got 90 MLA seats and opposition has 29 including BJP 5, MIM 7 and INC 13. The calculation here goes like this 119/3+1. That is 119/4=29.75. So, to elect a member of Rajya Sabha from Telangana State he/she require 30 seats. With TRS having 90 seats they will clean sweep all the 3 seats and increase their strength in Rajya Sabha. So, the entire opposition cannot win a single seat also.

This is how the Election process happens in Rajya Sabha. Very different one from what we generally see and practice. Rajya Sabha has its own importance in Nation Building. In my next post that is on 20th March I will write the Preview and Predictions for Rajya Sabha Elections which are scheduled to reelect 58 seats. Before that juicy post this is a post that will refresh your understanding of Rajya Sabha elections. Hope you liked it!