Finally, the Election Mahotsav arrives. The 7 phase polling that we would see for the next 38 days is going to be breath taking with strategies and counter strategies by the ruling party and the opposition. All in all, we are going to see the most crucial election in the recent time, crucial than the one which happened in 2014, which incidentally was my first election and the first time I cast my vote. The global markets are not looking that positive as Dow closed flat last night and all Asian markets are in red especially the Hong Kong which is down 200 points and Japan down 150 points. Brent Crude is still above 71 dollars and that continues to be a big worry.
Coming to domestics, market movement today will completely depend on how the first phase goes today. Farm distress, jobs and national security are the major issues that we are facing in this election and the first phase today is mostly concentrated in South India. 44 out of 91 seats, which is roughly half of the seats going to polls are from South India, especially AP and Telangana. 60 out of the 91 seats are the rural seats and what rural south India thinks about Govt is important. As such BJP has very less stake in the south and out of these 44 seats in South BJP holds just 4 of them. But things are different in other 47 seats of North, Northeast and Western India. There out of 47 seats BJP holds 34 seats so it is extremely crucial that BJP should try to hold many of them. The big challenge is the 8 seats in UP where BJP holds all 8 of them. All these are from western UP and with SP-BSP-RLD combine, BJP is facing a united opposition.
On the derivatives front, as Nifty fell close to 90 points yesterday, on the slew of bad news for BJP starting with the Supreme court verdict, there was selling that happened in the Nifty futures market. The Nifty long positions which fell to 67% have now fallen to 63% at the end of the day. In the options market, however, the demand for the call continued and the Nifty put-call ratio fell to 1.33 from 1.42 mark seen at the beginning of the day. Today is the Nifty weekly expiry and if we look at the open interest positions, 11500 put has the highest open interest, compared to 11600 put yesterday and 11700 call has the highest open interest. Right now Nifty is at 11584 which is almost the mid point.
What is the Nifty call for the day?
A red Asia means we will also open in the flat zone around 11580-11600 mark and as the options positions indicate today could be a day of volatility where market can test 11500 mark and even might go to 11680 mark. Much of it depends on how the elections of the first phase go, especially in Uttar pradesh and Maharashtra. Yesterday, you would not have taken positions, considering the fall and the volatility that Nifty has shown. If you have not taken a position, its good and do not go for any fresh position now. But if you have ended up taking a position then all that you need to do is to hope that you get a sharp up move above 11650 mark so that you can exit that position. Today is election as well as expiry so its time to wait and watch.
Today the talking point is not one but two states and both are the South Indian states. For the first time, these states will hold Lok Sabha elections as separate states. It’s the Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. Andhra Pradesh before bifurcation was the third joint highest seat state with West Bengal. After the division though Andhra got 25 seats and Telangana got 17 seats which total to 42 seats.
Fact Check: The total no of registered
voters in Andhra are 3.69cr which is compared to 3.68cr in 2014. Whereas
smaller state Telangana has got 2.8cr voters . So almost we have got 6.5 crore
people voting in this Lok Sabha elections 2019.
Andhra Pradesh is also going for Assembly elections along with the Lok Sabha elections. With both State and Central elections falling on the same day, and for many other reasons the Andhra Pradesh elections are much more exciting than the Telangana Elections. If we look at the contest, in Andhra this is going to be a 5 cornered contest. We have Telugu Desam Party (TDP), YSR Congress Party (YSRCP), Jana Sena+BSP+CPI+CPM, Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) and Congress (INC).
Off the 5 parties, Jana Sena is
the newly entrant party which is mostly dominated by the Kapu community, Pawan
Kalyan the party founder was clever to bring coalition with left parties like
CPI + CPM and also the Dalit party.
There is nothing to talk about
the Congress as the Congress is completely non-existent and are in complete
tough position. Same goes with the BJP who are not existent but are eager for
the fighting every seat.
When we look at the leaders from
parties: TDP has got lot of experienced people like Ram Mohan Naidu from Srikakulam.
Ashok Gajapati Vijayanagngram and Surya
Bhaskar reddy from Kurnool.
The opposition party has got two
leaders who are the relatives of Jagan Mohan Reddy and they are Avinash reddy from
Cuddapah, Mithun reddy from Rajampet.
Thus the fight for Lok Sabha 2019
in Andhra will be fought by 3 parties majorly. Congress and BJP might not win
even a single seat. YSRCP and TDP will be the parties who will win the most. The
point here is the entry of Jana Sena party has started to hurt TDP. That’s
because the voters of TDP also fall under the category of Kappu.
Now let’s look at the most
easiest State to estimate the results: Telangana
Firstly TRS has got no opponents who are strong enough to defeat KCR and his party in any seat. After the assembly elections the wave has proven the amount of support he has got from the people of Telangana. As expected TDP is not contesting the Telangana Elections. But Congress has decided that they will still fight and not give up. They have got people who have the ability to win in Telangana. Madhu Yashki goud from Nizamabad, Revanth reddy from Malkajgiri, Uttam Kumar reddy from Nalagonda and many more good leaders are fighting for Congress.
TRS will ride on their big
leaders and as well as on the Party’s and KCR wave. But the one seat which is
definitely in hands of KCR is the Nizamabad where Kavitha is contesting. The one which BJP will hope to win is the Secunderabad
seat which is gone to Kishan reddy.
If the magic of KCR is still
working, TRS will win 14-15 seats, Congress might win 1-2. This would mean it
is going to be a complete sweep.
Now, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana have got 42
seats and we have a completely new National alliance which includes AP and
Telangana and that’s called as Federal Front. Federal front has got TRRS and
YSRCP as members. Going by the figures it’s possible that Federal Front will
win almost near to 35 seats.
Till now we have looked at Four different
states from four sides of the Country. Maharashtra is in the favour of NDA, Tamil
Nadu will be held by DMK+Congress, West Bengal will be once again swept by TMC
which is the Third Front and AP+Telangana will be swept by Federal Front. Things
are turning really interesting!!
NTR Mahanayakudu – A Movie that teaches you the qualities that a leader should and should not possess. This political life of the legend NTR has got some Drama!
Cast: Bala Krishna as Nandamuri Taraka Rama Rao, Vidya Balan as Basavatarakam, Kalyan Ram as Hari Krishna, Sumanth as ANR and Rana Daggubati as Chandrababu Naidu.
Story, Screenplay and direction: Krish Jagarlamudi
Music: MM Keeravani
Not so long ago we had seen the movie NTR Kathanayakudu, the movie life story of India’s first Superstar NT Rama Rao making all the noise at the Box office. Though the money made wasn’t big enough to be called a Hit movie, the story of NTR has touched the hearts of the fans of NTR. There has been a visible change in the theme of the 2nd part after all the action coming from RGV’s Lakshmi’s NTR. The first part was very well accepted by the fans as it was completely on Cinema Life.
But the 2nd part got controversial with two different stories doing the talks about the NTR’s political life.
The movie starts with the recap of the life of NTR from his birth to the time he starts the political party Telugu Desam. NTR flashes the colours on the Wall and designs the Flag of the party telling out the meaning of each element in the Flag. That’s where his political life starts and decides to move across the state of Andhra Pradesh to reach out to the public and understand their issues. It was a wonderfully structured campaign by the NTR and supported by his son and the family.
His speech and his ideas for new schemes had taken the opposition by surprise and they have started to hijack those schemes. NTR crashed off them by saying that he would bring much more change when he gets the power. This way his every speech was a profit for the party and eventually, he becomes the Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh.
Sadly, he had some foxes and snakes in his party who were against the popularity of him and the way the party was handled by NTR. They get together to put him down and wanted to bring him down, which was successful when NTR and wife Basava Tarakam had to visit America for the Medical attention. This is where the movie takes off and every scene was building up the drama. The important role of Nara Chandrababu Naidu played by Rana Daggubati where the director shows the hard work of CBN to keep the party and the MLA’s together in the crisis.
If this is the drama that went around in his political life, his political life also had some fantastic schemes. He was the one to have introduced a scheme where he has given kg rice for 2 rupees. His power kept the naxalism to minimal. He introduced women empowerment schemes wherein he made it mandatory seats for women travellers in the public transport and giving an equal share for women in the property. The major scheme that backfired him from his fellow MLA’s was the Lokayukta Act which enabled any citizen to question any person in power or general person.
The movie could’ve spoken about the life of NTR till his death but it was restricted till the death of his wife Basava Tarakam. This was a high point but the producers played safe by not putting out anything after 1985.
There are obvious controversies about the movie and the way it portrayed CBN and there is no end to that. Even after the Lakshmi’s NTR the controversies wouldn’t stop so moving out of these controversies, I would say that the life of NTR ended on a very bad note, as he entertained his fans as an actor and worked for their development after turning into a politician. But what he lacked was political understanding, that’s a big mistake. We should work for the people and their wellbeing but we should also be ready to face the consequences and battle them. His determination is what to be appreciated and to be adopted by the people of this generation. Only with the Hard Work, one can achieve his goals, which was proved by him again when he goes for campaigning 2nd time across the State.
Believe and Work hard for your goals and you’ll see them accomplished in no time!