Tag Archives: 2019

Indian Stock Markets are on a roll as Nifty rallies 2.5% in the last 4 days and 6.75% in the last 3 weeks!

Hello Everyone, this post is a continuation to the last week. In the last week, I had written and explained about the movement of the NIFTY during the General Elections 2014 and compared them to the present scenario. Nothing has changed when it comes to the political decisions are concerned in the last week, but the mood of the market has entirely changed. Last Tuesday NIFTY closed at 10987 and today it closed at 11301 which is 2.85% up move. The only big event that has happened in last one week is the release of election dates for Elections 2019.

Election Commission has decided the dates for the Lok Sabha Elections 2019 on Saturday. Seven phase election is scheduled to begin on the 11th of April and conclude on the 19th of May. Counting is scheduled to be held on May 23rd which is a week later than the last two General Elections. This week has begun on a very different note with NIFTY going up by 1.2% and 1.19% on both the days. This kind of move is only possible when there is a lot of buying in the Delivery channel. Delivery buying is the type of buying where the stocks are bought for investment purpose. Usually, delivery buying is for a minimum of 2 weeks to 3 months.

But should there be a rally before the elections and the important results?

Simply because markets are the leading indicators for the Indian economy. Leading indicator here means something which has the hint of future and tries to jump into the future for a better valuation. Markets everywhere read the future and they trade accordingly.

Who is this Mr/Ms Market?

Obviously, it is the Public. The market is we the people of the country. This includes the High net-worth individuals, individual investors, foreign investors, mutual funds etc. So it is basically the people’s opinion. Keeping it simple, we can call the investors as Domestic and Foreign. Right now we can say that 70% of contribution comes from Foreign investors and 30% comes from Domestic investors. That makes it more clear that the Foreign investors believe that there is positive news coming from the elections. The positive news here at the moment is the re-election of NDA to power.

That proves that it’s the people who take the market forward and these people include all kinds.

How long will this rally Sustain?

Going by the past rally during the General Elections 2014, it was seen that NIFTY was at 6000 at the beginning of February month and on the day of results NIFTY was trading at 7142. This is an astonishing growth of 19% in just 3 and a half months. Going by this simple equation, NIFTY has gone from 10600 in the middle of February to 11320 in the middle of March, which is again a 6.75% growth in just 1 month. With the results being pushed a week we can conservatively expect the Markets to hit 12,000 minimum on the results day. This will mean the Markets will move another 6% up from tomorrow. I repeat 6% is minimum growth it has got all legs to hit 10-12% as well. All this is on the narrative that BJP will come back to the Power in 2019 Elections.

What’s in the store for Investors?

NIFTY 50 Stocks and their returns during build up to General Elections 2014 and General Elections 2019.

Returns, High Returns!! Yes, in the last post also I have discussed how the stocks have made big money from March 2014 to May 2014. The average returns of the portfolio of the 10 stocks from NIFTY gave 31.38% in only 80 days. The same portfolio when calculated this year from Feb 28th till date i.e. 12th March has given 6.7% average returns. By going with the past trends it’s clear that you can make a minimum of 20% returns. Don’t wait and invest in the markets. Especially in the large-cap NIFTY stocks for safe returns. My feeling is obviously to invest and make ‘BIG’ money by the time counting day comes. #NiftyNeedsNamo

Okay! That’s about the Markets and Elections. If this is how interesting the Elections are turning out to be, how can one miss the action? I wouldn’t want to and I hope there are more like me. So, for the next 10 weeks leading to the counting day of Lok Sabha elections 2019, I will be writing posts relating to Elections 2019 for two times in a week. Once on a Tuesday and the other one on Friday. In these posts, I will be writing about the situations, opinions polls, who’s ahead and who’s losing, what each leader are saying and doing, and analyse the mood of the nation leading up to next 72 days!

What’s the outlook for Indian Stock Markets for the next 3 months?

What’s the outlook for Indian Stock Markets for the next 3 months?

Politics is one of the major fundamentals in the movement of the Stock Market. Generally, markets react very sharply to any kind of unfavourable measures taken by the Govt for the economy. So when it comes to elections, the moment the ‘markets’ don’t get the desired result the reaction would be severe to watch. There are days when Stock markets have shown rapid upwards and downwards movement riding on the outcome of the elections. Till early 2012 stock markets were solidly behind UPA led by Congress. But a series of scams that took place later changed the sentiment and from mid-2013 it wanted the NDA led by BJP to come to power.


The measurement starts from February 2014, exactly 5 years ago when there were opinion polls that put NDA ahead of UPA. That is where Nifty started its journey from 6000. This mark of 6000 was reached way back in 2008 and from then on Nifty was stuck there. By the time results came towards the end of May Nifty scaled 7000. Then the victory of BJP in Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Haryana in late 2014 pushed it to 8000 mark. Just before the results of Delhi and Bihar in March 2015 Nifty scaled 9000. But the losses for BJP in both the states pushed Nifty back all the way to 7000 and from there it started its journey back again upwards. Just before demonetization, Nifty scaled 9000 again November 2016 but it took the massive victory of Uttar Pradesh in March 2017 that made Nifty to capture 10000. The subsequent victories in Gujarat in November 2017 and Karnataka in early 2018 pushed Nifty to 11000 mark. But that was the end. The losses in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan brought it back to 10500 levels and now we are back to the situation again we started 5 years ago, with Lok Sabha elections, just around the corner.

Here are the dates of different elections in the past for your reference.

2014 May – General Elections
2014 November – Maharashtra, Haryana & Jharkhand
2015 March – Bihar & Delhi
2016 November – Demonetization
2017 March – Uttar Pradesh
2017 November – Gujarat
2018 April – Karnataka
2018 December – Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh & Rajasthan

If the things really turn out to be negative for BJP and if so-called 3rd Front supported by Congress forms the Government, we are to see a big fall in the markets and NIFTY could well go to 6000 mark yet again. This 6000 mark is something that Nifty tested in 2008, 2010 and 2014. Now we might go back to where we have started. Even if Congress forms a minority Govt also thing won’t be different and we might test the 6000 levels. In another scenario, if things change for good and BJP starts gaining its momentum in the last few left out days, with the mood of the Nation NIFTY will also react positively and it can hit 11,000 after the budget. This is only because of a positive feeling about the Govt.

Once the results come in for the BJP then we shall see the NIFTY moving all the way towards 12000 and by the time Modi takes the oath again, he will be welcomed by another all-time high of 12000 on Nifty, just like how it welcomed Modi in 2014 with an all-time high of 7000! So, interesting 100 days ahead of us!

Bollywood Movies Checklist For The Year 2019!

Top Movies coming up in the year 2019!

It’s a known fact that Movies in India drive the people crazy and 2018 has been a year with many big reality checks for actors. This year started with a bang with Padmaavat, the movie made good money as well earned a huge name for Ranveer & Deepika. Like this, there were commercially hit movies and also parallel story movies which changed the theme of Movies. Bollywood has had its share of new actors who have made their mark felt. What’s better than knowing the different movies coming in the year 2019.

Let’s look at the list of movies coming in the year 2019 and the actors. 

1. Uri: The Surgical Strike (11th January 2019): The movie based on true events of Uri Surgical strike which will show us the big step taken by Indian Army and the Government. Starring Vicky Kaushal in the lead role with Paresh Rawal in supporting role, this movie promises to be one of the best in the year. 

2. The Accidental Prime Minister (11th January 2019): The movie again based on true events, in fact on the life story of former PM Dr. Manmohan Singh. Movie has been going through continuous controversies and political exchanges. Might not be a commercial success but it’ll be something very interesting to watch out for. Clashing with Uri movie as of now on 11th of January 2019. 

3. Gully Boy (14th February 2019): After his excellent performance in Padmaavat & Simmba in the last year, Ranveer Singh will be seen in a very different role in the movie Gully Boy as it is based on the Mumbai Street rappers. Alia Bhatt will be seen alongside Ranveer Singh. With two big actors in the movie, it’s going to be a Box Office favourite. 

4. Kesari (22nd March 2019): The first movie of four Akshay Kumar’s movie for the year 2019 will be released just before the 2019 elections. It’s a story based on Indian period war drama ‘The battle of Saragarhi’. The movie is produced by Karan Johar and in the opposite role making her come back is Parineeti Chopra. 

5. Kalank (19th April 2019): Most awaited movie for Varun Dhawan and Alia Bhatt. It’s yet another period drama and produced by Karan Johar. Has got huge star cast as in Sanjay Dutt, Madhuri Dixit being the cast. 

6. Student Of The Year 2 (10th May 2019): It’s the third movie which is being produced by Karan Johar. This movie is sequel to the Student of the year which had created some magic and has given the industry three great actors. SOTY2 cast includes the famous Tiger Shroff, debuting is Ananya Pandey. 

7. Bharat (5th June 2019): Finally after 6 months into 2019, comes the movie of the Big Khan’s. The film has big stars like Salman Khan and Katrina Kaif. With the release being scheduled for the EID 2019, Salman will surely hope for his fate to change. He has had bad year and is expecting to make a big hit in 2019. 

8. Good News (19th July 2019): Second Akshay Kumar’s movie for the year and it will also star Kareen Kapoor. A pair that hasn’t worked together since 9 years. This will be a comedy and family movie. 

9. Mission Mangal (15th August 2019): Akshay Kumar’s third movie in the year and it’s treated as the first space movie in the country. This movie will bring out the story of India’s Mars Mission which took place on 5th Nov 2013. Movie will star Vidya Balan, Tapsee Pannu, Sonakshi Sinha and others. Movie is scheduled to be released on the Independence day of 2019. 

10. Brahmastra (20th December 2019): This will be the last one in the year of 2019 for me. Starring Ranbir Kapoor and Alia Bhatt, this movie is expected to do really well. The date scheduled for Christmas. It’s a fantasy film which will be directed by Ayan Mukerji, produced by Karan Johar. 

These are the not the only movies coming in the year 2019, there are many other movies like Manikarnika, Housefull 4, Kick 2, ABCD 3, Panipat etc. There are also some movies whose release dates are not yet fixed, so with the movies for those the dates are released this are the top movies to watch out for in 2019!

Market Trade Setup 31st December India #NIFTY

Market Setup 31st December

The last day of the year finally arrives. The market set up that I started way back in 2017 has completed one more year today. 2018 was the first year of my life when I did market set up every single trading day and it has been nearly 250 days of market set up and it was a memorable experience indeed. Coming to the set up on the last trading day, things look even on Friday with Dow Jones closing 76 points down and the European markets were green on Friday and today only few Asian markets like Singapore and Taiwan are trading and they are in positive zone. Japan, Korea, China and Hong Kong are shut for today. 

Coming to domestics, in the absence of cues from any global markets, India will be on its own today. There are very few domestic cues that are available right now. Brent Crude is trading at 53 dollars per barrel and this is getting reflected in the Petrol prices. Petrol prices in Hyderabad are at 73.22 per litre and this is the lowest price in 2018. On January 1st 2018 we started at a price of 74.09 in Hyderabad and from then it was a steady increase to 89.06 on October 4th. After that the prices started to drop. This is the lowest petrol price we have seen since December 18th 2017. The other news that will have impact on the market, maybe negatively is the big farm loan waiver announcement that Govt is likely to make. The actual news might take sometime but rumours are likely to affect the market more.  

On the derivatives front, there was good amount of buying that happened on Friday in the Futures market and the January series that started at 50-50 long and short has the long positions moving to 52%. This was also accompanied by Nifty futures premium shooting up to 47 points from 30 points seen at the beginning of the day. On the options market however the Nifty put call ratio remained steady at 1.54 but the big news is 11200 call open interest has overtaken 11000 call. With 6 lakh contracts getting added 11200 call has 26.4 lakh contracts while 11000 call that added just 1.3 lakh contracts is at 24.5 lakh. On the put side 10500 put still continues to have highest open interest. So, that gives freedom to market to cross 11000 bit more easily. 

What is the Nifty call for the day?

I asked you to take a long position at 10830-10850 level with 40-50 point target on Friday and if you have taken it, you will reach your target at the opening level itself. Nifty is likely to open around 10890-10910 levels and then the immediate target is 10950. The target I gave is 10900-10920 and if that is met you can exit. But there is another thing that you can do, if you wish. As most markets are shut and since there will be lot of NAV management that will happen from mutual funds, markets may go up a bit more. So, you can extend your target to 10950 or even 11000 levels and take it tomorrow also. This target will stay till you reach 11000.

Market Trade Setup 28th December India #NIFTY

Market Trade Setup 28th December

Markets welcome 2019 3 days ahead with the start of the January series. 2019 for me is the year of the decade as well as the entry point to next decade. The year has so many cues to look forward to and the most important being the General Elections scheduled in April and May that could define the country’s progress into the 3rd decade of the 21st century. On the global scenario, Dow Jones has shown a 900 point volatility were it fell 600 points and then rose above to close 250 points higher than the previous day. There is so much confusion about US entering into bear territory in 2019 and the market is just not able to decide where it goes.

The China factor is weighing heavily in everyone’s mind and Asian markets are also like US markets, very volatile. Japan is down nearly 200 points while Hong Kong is up just 20 points. That’s a very uncertain January start globally.

On domestics, this 2019 is crucial for us much more than any country in the world as we go for a general election. 2018 was a year that went to bears 7-5 as Nifty remaining in a flat zone. The year started with Nifty at 10500 levels and now we are at 10800 level which means in the entire year we just moved 300 points which is just 2.5%. However, in 2018 we have seen a high of 11760 and a low of 9951 and right now we are almost in the middle.

On the macro news, the Fiscal deficit of 115% for April to November period is a big negative that will hit the market, especially bond markets. Now it is clear that Govt is not going to stick to its fiscal deficit targets and that is something we will have to negotiate today. 

What to expect from the January series?

If we look at the last 5 January series we have 3 January series that went positive and 2 January series that went negative. 2014 and 2016 January series were negative and 2015, 2017 and 2018 series were positive. The last two January series have seen a 500 point jump on Nifty. So, what does this January holds needs is to be seen. The rollovers from December to January were at 74% which is highest in the last 2 months and higher than the average levels also. The Nifty put-call ratio is also at 1.54 which is looking very bullish versus 1.39 that we ended the December series with. 10500 on the put side and 11000 on the call side are the markers seen. But we also need to watch out for 10800 put and 11200 call as there could be some open interest that can be built if Nifty goes up. 

What is the Nifty call for the day?

There will be a positive opening for the market where Nifty will open around 10830-10850 levels and being the first day of the series it is always going to be positive. On the upside 10920 is the resistance and 10820 is the support. So, I suggest taking a long position anywhere between 10830-10850 levels with 40-50 points as the target looking at the possible resistance zone of 10900-10920 levels.

General Elections 2019! Mid Year Predictions – Northern Region #LokSabha2019

Lok Sabha Elections 2019 Predictions – Northern Region 

So I am back with the Elections Predictions on this Tuesday. The journey of predicting for the General Elections 2019 which started on 29th May is going to complete the region wise picture today and next week will be the All India picture. When we last visited election predictions and stopped with Western India Predictions, NDA was sitting at 214 seats and UPA at 203 seats with 126 seats left. Today you will know who will be the people’s choice in 2019 elections. But just few words before talking about the North Indian states, this predictions thing has seriously helped me in understanding the politics in the country. Someone who had restricted himself to Telangana, now has good knowledge on almost all the states.

Fine, so coming to the Northern Indian region of India. We have 7 states and Chandigarh here with 126 seats. Out of the 126 seats it’s the Uttar Pradesh which takes 2/3rds with 80 seats and rest 46 divided between other states. Let’s see if UPA is going to do any harm to NDA or will NDA retain the power in 2019!

  1. Uttar Pradesh: The Big State with 80 seats which was the jackpot for BJP in last elections is looking to be a disappointment this time. 2014 saw BJP winning as many as 73 seats and SP+BSP put together winning only 7 seats. This was a huge victory for BJP. This time though BJP will have to taste the bitterness as the predictions show that BJP will fall to 48 and SP+BSP alliance is looking to come back strong and win 32 seats. It is only in Paschim Pradesh or Western UP where BJP is kind of sweeping with 19 out of 28 but not as good as 2014 where it had won 25 seats. Avadh the minority dominated region and a strong hold of SP will be setback as BJP which won 11 last time out of 14 is now dropping to 6. Purvanchal is yet another disappointment for BJP, in the 2014 elections BJP has won 31 out of 32 and this time they are falling to 19 seats. It’s a victory for SP+BSP as they are jumping from 1 seat to 13 seats. And from the last region of 6 seats Bundelkhand BJP is losing 2 seats compared to 6 they won last time. Big point is I am expecting Rahul Gandhi to lose the election to Smriti Irani from Amethi.
  2. Jammu and Kashmir: To the top most state of the Country, in the last elections BJP was in alliance with PDP and it was a great move as they went on to win all the 6 seats. PDP won 3 from Kashmir region which has about 98% Muslim population, BJP won 2 seats in Jammu and 1 seat from Ladakh. We know that the alliance is no more in place and BJP will not and cannot win anything in Kashmir so straight they will fall to 2 as Ladakh is also looking difficult for BJP.
  3. Punjab: The only state where Congress is in power after 2014 elections. Akali Dal and BJP lost the assembly elections badly and Congress came back to the power in 2017. This will really effect the BJP+SAD and their numbers will drop to just 5 out of 13 seats. AAP has lost all its value and will not win anything. INC will gain majorly and will be up from 3 last time to 8 seats now.
  4. Delhi & Chandigarh: The capital has got 7 seats and BJP had clean swept all the 7 seats in the last elections. This time though due to some political problems and anti-incumbency will make way for Congress. Expecting BJP to lose 2 seats and might win 5 seats. From Chandigarh the only seat will go to Kirron Kher from BJP. Congress might win the remaining 2 seats in Delhi.
  5. Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh: Two states which are Pro BJP and I am not seeing any trouble for BJP. Both together there are 9 seats, Uttarakhand 5 and Himachal Pradesh 4. In 2014 BJP won all the 9, expecting BJP to do the same in 2019.
  6. Haryana: Another state which has the feeling of anti-incumbency and it will hurt BJP. Last time BJP has won 7 seats out of 10. This time with the fall of 2 seats BJP will retain 5 seats. It is the Indian National Lok Dal which is going to gain more due to the political issues in the state.

These are the predictions for the Northern Indian region and the race of prediction for the regions has come to an end. My predictions for the Northern India gives BJP 75 seats, INC 12 seats and others at 39 seats. Which takes the tally of BJP or NDA to 289, UPA to 95 and others to 159. With no confirmations on who will join whom and whether the present coalition parties will stay or not these numbers still look dangerous even though NDA might cross the majority mark. BJP+Allies as of now are at 289 without adding any support from South Indian states. In my South India predictions, we have seen Rajinikanth winning good numbers. There is always chance of parties jumping here and there.

Next week will be my concluding post where I will give you state by state figures for all the states and also will tell you how many seats BJP alone can win. Will it be less than 272, then how much less it will be and who are the partners it can bank upon. Wait for the concluding post on 3rd July, you will surely find it interesting!

General Elections 2019! Mid Year Predictions – Eastern India Region #LokSabha2019

Lok Sabha Elections 2019 Predictions – Eastern India

Tuesday it is and its Psephology again for 2nd week running. As promised this post will be concentrating on the Eastern India’s predictions for general elections 2019. As part of Eastern India, I have taken West Bengal, Orissa, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar and North East states – Assam, Mizoram, Manipur, Tripura, Meghalaya, Nagaland and Sikkim.

  1. West Bengal: Starting off with the most crucial state of West Bengal. Bengal is a Strong hold for the opposition and is a potential place for third front. West Bengal politics was in news in last few days for the havoc that we have witnessed in the Panchayat Elections. Though the people of West Bengal still believe in Didi – Mamata Banerjee – few sections of people are changing their view and we could see a major fight for seats. There are chances that Sourav Ganguly might get in as well. Not confirmed yet. There are 42 seats in total and this is divided into 3 regions. They are Gorkha land, Hooghly region and the third is the Burdwan region. In the three regions Gorkha Land is the only place where BJP is strong and is supposed to do well. Apart from this it will get one, two seats from other two regions. Problem for BJP is the absence of a strong leader in West Bengal.

 

  1. Orissa: Not much to be spoken about this Biju Patnaik’s State which has vested power in Naveen Patnaik for almost 20 years now. Very much like West Bengal where BJP doesn’t have much to say, BJP is also not a big player here. But in last 2 years or so, BJP is making every effort to take the opposition spot vacated by Congress. Still there are some places like Bargarh, Sundargarh and Bhubaneshwar where BJP can smell the victories. Looks a tough fight for BJP and BJD will easily win this.

 

  1. Chattisgarh: BJP is too strong here to lose and let the opposition parties win the battle. So, my predictions aren’t going to change from what it has achieved in its last elections. 10 of 11 is what BJP will get. In 2014 and in 2009 elections also BJP got 10 out of 11 seats here.

 

  1. Jharkhand: Another easy state for BJP. In the power in this state since the time State was formed. Either as coalition or Single party. No major heart breaks with respect to anti-incumbency will be relief for BJP. Situations Looks like BJP will lose one of its seats to INC.

 

  1. Bihar: Bihar is always unpredictable state because we have leaders like Lalu and Nitesh Kumar who are the best friends and best enemies as well. One cannot say if Nitesh will stay with BJP or change his stance. But as of now things look very good for BJP and this coalition of BJP and JDU will be the big win in the eastern India. There will be lot of swing that can happen where BJP will lose its seats to INC/RJD and RJD/INC will lose its seats to BJP. This can be crucial for BJP. Bihar is divided into 4 regions, the tirhut region which is adjacent to Nepal, the Kosi belt, the seemanchal region dominated by Muslims and the Magadh region which is the center of power with 17 out of 40 seats. Whoever does well in Magadh will take Bihar and this time too BJP-JDU combine is likely to do very well in Magadh.Things can change but as of now BJP looks like losing 2 seats to opposition.

 

  1. North Eastern States: The Seven Sisters though have very less seats compared to other states. They will play big role in determining the winner in the Eastern India. Overall North East has 25 seats with highest seats coming from Assam. BJP has turned everything upside down in last 4 years and it has been sweeping in the assembly elections off late in north east. Assam, Tripura, Meghalaya and others. Expecting a big jump for BJP here, which will be a big add to their tally. Expecting BJP to score as high as 19 out of 25.

This is how the Eastern India Predictions look like with just less than a year to go for Lok Sabha elections. The tally after the overall prediction for Eastern India brings BJP 82 seats out of 153 seats while the INC sits at 21 and others at 50. BJP though is ahead of Others+INC in Eastern India by 9 seats, both Eastern and Southern India combined the tally stands at 122 compared to 163 for the opposition. If all the parties do come together BJP then this numbers look dangerous for BJP. Good news is when you compare BJP’s tally, it was 88 both East and South combined in 2014 but now it has jumped to 122. A big boost for BJP.

Next week I will be back with Western India, where there are no others. It’s a direct contest between BJP and Congress and in 2014 BJP literally swept every state and let’s see how many of it can they hold in 2019 and how much of a comeback Congress has made.

 

General Elections-2019! Mid Year Predictions – South India Region #LokSabha2019

It’s Tuesday and it’s my post day. Very recently the NDA Government has completed its 4th year of ruling and they have just 1 more year left before the Lok Sabha elections 2019 take place. Many surveys and polls have been conducted on to see what can happen in 2019 and look at the party’s performance state wise. Last year around this time I had given the seats that can be won by parties as on that day. Starting from today, for the next one month I will predict the seats that BJP, INC and others will be winning in 2019 elections.

These predictions are not of any survey done by me nor a copy of any survey of any TV channel. This is based on the political situations that exist in those states as on today, the perceptions of people reflected trough various surveys and polls coupled with my analysis. I have divided this into 5 parts. The first 4 parts will focus on four regions of India and in the last part I will give an all India picture.

Today it is the turn of BJP’s less favored region of South India. South India is complicated with every state having its own dynamics and the party which is there in one state is not there in other state. Like TRS which is only there in Telangana, TDP and YSRCP in Andhra Pradesh etc. South India includes states like Telangana (17), Andhra Pradesh (25), Karnataka (28), Kerala (20) and Tamil Nadu (39). Union territories Lakshadweep and Pondicherry with 1 seat each. Total of 132 seats.

  1. Telangana is the first state am going to predict. It has 17 seats in total and TRS, Congress, BJP, AIMIM and TDP are the parties contending. I give 10 seats to TRS mostly from North Telangana districts, 4 seats for BJP, coming from the City and other Urban places. Congress will have to limit itself with 2 seats from South Telangana.
  2. Andhra Pradesh another Telugu State which had seen a more than half seats going to coalition of BJP and TDP in 2014. Now with TDP and BJP becoming deadly enemies on the issue of special status, expect a tactical understanding of BJP with YSRCP to teach TDP a lesson. This understanding will exist more on ground and will not reflect as an alliance. This will majorly benefit BJP as YSRCP looks much stronger to capture power in AP. I give 13 out of 25 seats to YSRCP, coming from Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra equally and 4 seats for BJP coming from places like Vizag, Rajahmundry and probably Rajampet. TDP which won 15 seats last time will be reduced to 8.
  1. Karnataka, state which had elections just few days ago has seen a roller coaster of elections. JDS and Congress now with the coalition have confirmed that they will be participating as one in the Lok Sabha Elections. Will that hit them back or help them is something to be seen. As per my fundamental study I feel that it is going to be a little boost to BJP. Expecting a two seat jump to 19 from 17.  Major gains for BJP will come from Mumbai Karnataka where it will win 5 out of 6 seats, Coastal Karnataka where it will sweep all the 3 seats and Central Karnataka where it will win 5 out of 9 seats and also will win few seats in Hyderabad Karnataka and in Bangalore City and Mysore. Cong-JDS combine will be reduced to just 9 seats.
  2. Kerala is the only place in South India where BJP had no seats for many years. But that changed in the assembly elections of 2016 where it won its first seat and got more than 13% vote share and it is expected to do well in the 2019 elections. This is going to be a big plus for BJP if they manage to get the seats I am predicting. I am seeing victory in 5 seats for BJP compared to nothing in 2014. To add a point, in the year 2014 BJP had 10% vote share which jumped to 13% in 2016. So, at the same pace if the vote share goes to 17-18% then they will be able to win 5 seats. These seats will come from North Kerala region of Kasargod, probably in Thrissur and Thiruvananthapuram in South Kerala.
  1. Tamil Nadu – the state of confusion. We now have five big parties fighting out in this state. AIADMK, DMK, AIADMK, Rajnikanth’s new party, MNM of Kamal Hassan and the NDA which has parties like DK, DMDK, PMK and BJP. AIADMK with the amount of anti-incumbency is ruled out to win even one seat of the 39 seats. Last time Jayalalitha’s brand had given them 37 seats but now it’s really tough for them. Plus people voted for her as she put herself for the PM position in case if there is a hung parliament. It is going to be new players who will win it big this time. BJP will also make its inroads and win few major seats. Rajinikanth and Kamal Haasan are going to win it big this time. Rajinikanth with all his rural power will take highest number of seats, especially in South Tamilnadu. Rajnikanth will win 19 out of 40 seats mostly in Southern and Rural Tamilnadu, Kamal Hassan’s MNM will win 6 seats from Urban TN, BJP combine will win 7 seats mostly in western TN and Kanyakumari district. DMK is expected to get 7 seats mostly in Chennai city and North Tamilnadu.

Of the three union territories of Andamans, Pondicherry and Lakshadweep BJP will take Andamans and INC will take Pondicherry and Lakshadweep. So, here is the South India tally for this week.

Party 2019
BJP 40
INC 22
Others 70
Total 132

 

Overall, if we see the tally goes to 132 seats. Out of which BJP is looking set to win 40 seats as compared to 22 seats that they have won in the year 2014. With the support of TDP they had 37. This time even without the support of TDP they are looking to make big gain of 18 seats.

That’s how the overall tally looks with BJP at 40, INC at 22 and others at 70. South India which isn’t favorite region for BJP has made good ground to gain the seats. It all depends on how the parities strategize and win more seats. Other parties will have huge role to play in the South Indian region.

In my next Tuesday post, I will focus on the Eastern states of Orissa, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, West Bengal and North Eastern states. Wait for it!!