Finally, the expiry week for the narrowest series we have seen this year is here. All that we had seen this month is a 160 odd point movement on either side which accounts for 1.5% volatility and for 25th day running this 11850-12000 range is holding. We are still looking for a fundamental that can take out this range and the only big fundamental that is expected is the GDP number on 29th November after the markets close.
Globally, things are looking fine. Over the weekend Dow Jones closed in green territory gaining over 100 points. The main reason for this is the consumer sentiment data of US that came better than expected. The positive sentiment carried forward to Asia also this morning with Hong Kong up 500 points and Japan up 200 points. Brent crude also went up a bit high to 63.5 dollars.
On the domestic front, there are no big fundamentals to deal with, except an excitement on whether the Govt formed in Maharashtra stays or not. Mumbai is the financial capital and any uncertainty would surely affect the markets. In that context, the SC judgement today morning will hold some relevance.
Added to that is the report that the Q2 results growth rate has been the lowest in the last 10 years. This means the GDP might come at a decade lowest which is lower than the 4.5% mark. Added to all this is the uncertainty on the SEBI ban on Karvy and we need to see how much markets react to this. For today, the 20 dma moved to 11880 which means the range narrowed from 11850-12000 to 11880-12000 which puts Nifty under a lot of pressure to break the range either on the upside or the downside.
On the derivatives front, Friday saw Nifty give up more than 50 points and that got reflected in the derivative market with selling in both Futures and Options. Nearly 835 Cr selling happened in Nifty futures and that brought down the Nifty overall long positions to the new series low of 34% from 36%. In the options market also bearishness was reflected and 2 pouts were bought for every call and 2 calls were sold for every put. That has brought down the Nifty PCR to 1.30 from 1.52.
On the call side, 11900 call added 11.8 lakh positions followed by 12000 call that added 10.8 lakh positions. That took the 12000 call OI to 48.7 lakh and makes it a big resistance to cross. On the put side everywhere there was unwinding with 11850 put added 1.8 lakh positions and 11900 put has the highest OI making 11900-12000 as the expiry range.
What is the Nifty call for the day?
For the 25th day running Nifty is in a narrow 150 point range of 11850-12000 and today also we are going to open flat around 11910-11930 range and we have the support coming in the form of 20dma at 11880 levels and this should hold.
On the upside, there is a minor resistance around 11950-11980 mark and a very big resistance at 12000-12030 which if taken out only we can have a meaningful trade. So, the trade for the day is to go long around 11920-11940 range with 11980-12000 as the target. Other than that I don’t see any meaningful trade today.