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Stock Market Trade Setup 14th March #Nifty #India

Market Setup 14th March

Just when we thought that the rally that continued for almost a week finally came to an end, yesterday saw another rise of 40 points on Nifty and we saw it closing at 10341. Every possible resistance is being broken today and how long this rally will continue only time can tell. World markets also celebrated yesterday with technology stocks rising all over and Dow Jones gained 140 points to compensate for the loss the previous day. Boeing is getting banned all over the world and its impact will start showing soon. Asia also has opened in the positive territory today with Hong Kong and Japan up 100 and 140 points respectively. 

On the domestic front, one factor which will now start worrying is the rise in the brent crude prices. After a while Crude broke the 64-67 mark and now trading at 67.7 dollars. This means we have a chance of Crude touching 70 dollars during the election time, which will make it inevitable for Govt either to hike fuel prices or to absorb the losses which will put pressure on Oil marketing stocks and the fiscal position of the Govt. Petrol price is at 76.91 rupees in Hyderabad. On the other hand Rupee is strengthening in last few days and has come to 69.5 to dollar and today if Rupee also depreciates then we have a tough situation to deal with.

On the derivatives front, there was a huge amount of buying in Nifty futures and market seems to have a feeling that Nifty will touch 11500 mark in this series itself. The long positions which were at 55% yesterday morning went all the way up to 59% by the end of the day. However, the options market was mixed with demand for calls and puts coming in equal measures. That has kept the Nifty put call ratio constant at 1.81 and since today is expiry, this is a tolerable level. For today’s expiry the maximum open interest is at 11300 put and 11400 call indicating that the movement today could be in this range. 

What is the Nifty call for the day?

Another flat opening around 10330-10350 range is expected today and the expiry factors will move it on both sides of 10350. There is a chance of expiry happening all the way from 10280-10410 and the possibility is more towards 10340-10370. Yesterday also you would have profited by the positions taken and for 3 consecutive days, you have traded. Today, I would suggest you to take a pause. If things don’t go right, then you will burn your pockets and I am not getting a confident view on Nifty so I would advise you to AVOID trading today and see how the expiry pans out. 

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