Weather update 30th September

As expected monsoon has further withdrawn from some more parts of the country. At 2.30pm today the monsoon withdrawal line passes through Dwaraka, Gandhi nagar in Gujarat, Shivpur Kalyan in Rajasthan, Agra in Uttar Pradesh and Uttar kashi in Uttarakhand. With this monsoon has completely withdrawn from Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana and Delhi. It has withdrawn from 90% of Rajasthan, 60% of Gujarat , 20% of Uttarakhand and 10% of Uttar Pradesh.
Rainfall activity has shifted to Eastern India where it got 146% excess rain today. South India had an excess of +11% while it was deficit in Central India and it almost stopped raining in North western India. India as a whole got 5.0mm rain vs normal of 3.9mm which is an excess of +29%. That takes the total seasonal rainfall to 841mm vs normal of 887mm which is 95% of LPA. South India is at 100% of LPA, Eastern India is at 96%, Central India is at 94% and North western India ended at 90% of LPA.

Following are the top 5 wettest states in India.

1. Assam +565%
2. Telangana +162%
3. Goa +83%
4. Chattisgarh +83%
5. Jharkhand +74%

Following are raking of different states based on the deviation of normal from 1st June to 30th September the usual monsoon period.

1. Tamil Nadu +31%
2. Rest of North East +25%
3. Gujarat +22%
4. Andhra Pradesh +19%
5. Rajasthan +16%
6. Goa +10%
7. Jammu Kashmir +2%
8. Uttarakhand -2%
9. West Bengal -3%
10. Karnataka -3%
11. Maharashtra -4%
12. Bihar -9%
13. Kerala -9%
14. Orissa -9%
15. Jharkhand -10%
16. Assam -10%
17. Chattisgarh -10%
18. Arunachal Pradesh -11%
19. Telangana -13%
20. Himachal Pradesh -13%
21. Madhya Pradesh -20%
22. Punjab -22%
23. Haryana -26%
24. Uttar Pradesh -29%
Hyderabad got a huge excess of 21.2mm rain till 2.30pm today vs normal of 4.4mm which is +390% more than normal.

Following is the rainfall recorded in different observatories in Hyderabad.

1. Hakimpet 58.6mm
2. Shamirpet 58.4mm
3. Hayatnagar 45.4mm
4. Golkonda 28.0mm
5. Saroornagar 21.8mm
6. Begumpet 14.2mm
Telangana has plenty of rainfall with every district except Adilabad, Nizamabad and Warangal got huge excess rain. Telangana on an average got 11.8mm vs normal of 4.5mm which is an excess of +162%. That takes the total seasonal rainfall to 657mm vs normal of 755mm which is a deficit of -13%.

Following is the deviation of rainfall in different districts from normal.

1. Hyderabad +9%
2. Warangal +3%
3. Khammam +2%
4. Nalgonda -6%
5. Mahbubnagar -9%
6. Medak -15%
7. Rangareddy -15%
8. Karimnagar -25%
9. Nizamabad -25%
10. Adilabad -28%

Weather update 29th September

Monsoon was active in South India and Eastern India while it is normal in Central India. With this monsoon again got activated in different parts of the country except North Western India. South India was at +112% excess, Eastern India is at +107% excess and Central India is at +9% excess. India as a whole got 6.2mm rain vs normal of 4.0mm rain which is +54% excess. That takes the total seasonal rainfall to 837mm vs normal of 883mm which is 95% of LPA. south India is at 100%, Eastern India is at 96%, Central India is at 94% and North western India is at 91%.

Following are the top 5 wettest states in India.

1. Rest of North east +271%
2. Assam +262%
3. Karnataka +230%
4. Telangana +107%
5. West Bengal +104%

Following are the rankings of the states based on the deviation from 1st June to 29th September.

1. Tamil Nadu +32%
2. Rest of North east +25%
3. Gujarat +23%
4. Andhra Pradesh +20%
5. Rajasthan +16%
6. Goa +10%
7. Jammu Kashmir +2%
8. Uttarakhand -2%
9. West Bengal -3%
10. Maharashtra -3%
11. Karnataka -3%
12. Orissa -9%
13. Kerala -9%
14. Bihar -9%
15. Jharkhand -10%
16. Chattisgarh -10%
17. Arunachal Pradesh -11%
18. Assam -12%
19. Himachal Pradesh -12%
20. Telangana -14%
21. Madhya Pradesh -20%
22. Punjab -21%
23. Haryana -26%
24. Uttar Pradesh -29%
Hyderabad got a excess rain of +403% till 2.30pm. City on an average got 23.7mm vs normal of 4.7mm.

Following is the rainfall recorded in different observatories in the city.

1. Hakimpet 60.6mm
2. Shamirpet 53.4mm
3. Saroornagar 24.6mm
4. Begumpet 23.9mm
5. Golkonda 23.4mm
6. Hayatnagar 12.2mm
Telangana got plenty of rainfall with very district except Medak and Nizamabad that got deficit rain. Telangana on the whole got 9.1mm rain vs normal of 4.4mm which is +107% excess. That takes the total seasonal rainfall to 645mm vs normal of 750mm which is a deficit of -14%.

Following is the deviation of rainfall in different districts from normal.

1. Hyderabad +7%
2. Warangal +3%
3. Khammam +1%
4. Nalgonda -10%
5. Mahbubnagar -11%
6. Medak -17%
7. Rangareddy -18%
8. Nizamabad -24%
9. Karimnagar -26%
10. Adilabad -28%

Market set up 29th September

A green expiry day and the a green US markets and a mixed Asia and start of the October series, that’s how the markets welcome today. But another point is today is Friday and we have a long holiday of 3 days and we will again open on 3rd October. But the domestic macros looks a bit worrisome.
Former Finance minister Yashwant Sinha joined the chorus of people who are criticizing the economic policy of Govt. Though BJP rubbished it aside, it will make at least some people to get up and take note of his remarks.
In other Macro news Govt. has come up with its borrowing schedule for next six months and there is no change either in borrowing targets or in the fiscal deficits. Plus Govt. is optimistic of raising 30,000 Cr from the ONGC-HPCL merger. Plus another point is today will be the last day when companies can remain anonymous with respect to their default. Starting from 3rd October they have to disclose and delay in their monthly interest payments or the delays or delays in defaults.

Here is how it works.

If you delay your interest payment upto 30 days then on 31st day you will get into SMA1 or Special Mention Account 1 and that would be disclosed to public. If you delay your interest payments upto 61 days then on 62nd day you will be in SMA1 or Special Mention Account2. And if you delay interest or Principle amount payment by 90 days then on 91st day you will be called a “Defaulter” and the whole world will know about it. This is going to kick off from 3rd October. That will have a major impact on the stocks which are debt heavy.
The other macros to look forward to this month are the Monetary policy coming out on 4th October and the series of Q2 results which start coming from 9th October and the macro economic data in the form of IIP and CPI around 11th October. Plus the big Diwali coming in mid october that can change the direction of the market. So a heavy month to look forward to!

What is the market set up for today?

NIFTY will open relatively flat around 9780 levels and then 9830 on the upside is the immediate resistance. On the downside 9750 will offer as huge support. Today is the beginning of the series so don’t hurry up and take positions. Wait for Tuesday and see which way the market goes.
This is how the F&O markets are set up at the beginning of October series.
1. NIFTY futures: FII exposure is 56% long and 44% short which is the lowest in terms of long positions since December 2016.
2. Long Calls: FIIs bought 55% Calls till now and have shorted 45% calls.
3. Long puts: Long puts are 73% of total puts which is the highest and only 27% puts are short. That is definitely a bearish trend to start with!
So it is going to be a flat day where NIFTY might try to understand where it is going!

Weather update 28th September

Monsoon is very active in South India but very weak in other regions. South got an excess of +78% while Central India got a deficit of -49%, Eastern India a deficit of -60% and North India deficit of -91%. India as a whole got 3.4mm rain vs normal of 4.4mm which is a deficit of -22%. That takes the total seasonal rain to 830mm vs normal of 879mm which is 94% of LPA. South India is at 99%, Eastern India at 95%, Central India at 94% and North western India is at 91%.

Following are the top 5 wettest states in India.

1. Karnataka +110%
2. Kerala +84%
3. Chattisgarh +65%
4. Andhra Pradesh +59%
5. Telangana +51%
Following is the deviation of rainfall from the normal from 1st June to 29th September
1. Tamil Nadu +33%
2. Rest of North east +24%
3. Gujarat +23%
4. Andhra Pradesh +19%
5. Rajasthan +16%
6. Goa +10%
7. Jammu Kashmir +2%
8. Uttarakhand -2%
9. Maharashtra -4%
10. West Bengal -4%
11. Karnataka -5%
12. Kerala -9%
13. Orissa -9%
14. Bihar -9%
15. Jharkhand -10%
16. Arunachal Pradesh -11%
17. Chattisgarh -11%
18. Himachal Pradesh -12%
19. Assam -13%
20. Telangana -15%
21. Madhya Pradesh -19%
22. Punjab -21%
23. Haryana -26%
24. Uttar Pradesh -29%
Hyderabad recorded a good 12.2mm rainfall in last 24 hours ending at 2.30pm today which is an excess of +69%.

Following is the rainfall recorded in 6 different observatories.

1. Begumpet 15.0mm
2. Golkonda 9.4mm
3. Hayatnagar 5.2mm
4. Hakimpet 4.0mm
5. Saoornagar 2.6mm
6. Shamirpet 1.2mm
Telangana got a healthy 8.5mm rainfall vs normal of 5.6mm which is an excess of +51% and that takes the total seasonal rainfall to 636mm vs normal of 746mm which is a deficit of -15%.

Following is the deviation in different districts.

1. Hyderabad +4%
2. Warangal +3%
3. Khammam +2%
4. Nalgonda -12%
5. Mahbubnagar -14%
6. Medak -16%
7. Rangareddy -20%
8. Nizamabad -24%
9. Karimnagar -27%
10. Adilabad -28%

Market Setup 28th September

Finally we seem to have found a fundamental to explain the falling market. That is the depreciating rupee and weakening macro economic data. US markets closed at a record high with Dow gaining 56 points and S&P 500 making a big gains and going towards 2510. But Asia is mixed with the strengthening dollar. Dollar Index is at 93.5 now which is almost a one month high. Rupee has rapidly depreciated to 65.75 and today things could get worst and we might see a 66 on Rupee. Today is also expiry day!

What happens to NIFTY today?

Expiry day moves are bit more technical and in consideration with the expiry. We might open a bit down at the yesterday’s low of 9710 and then it needs to be seen whether that level holds or not. We might on an intraday basis touch 9670-9660 levels and on the upside 9780 will be a big resistance. Then its all dependent on 3PM move on which direction it comes.
1. If NIFTY stays around 9730-9750 levels throughout and if 3PM movement comes up then we could have a best expiry around 9780.
2. If NIFTY hovers around 9710-9740 levels and 3PM movement comes above then we could expire around 9750 levels. If the same 3PMmovement happens downward then we will have a 9700 kind of closing.
3. Finally if NIFTY is below 9700 moving around 9680-9700 and 3PM movement comes above then expect a 9720-9730 expiry. If it comes down then expect a 9650 expiry which is the worst that can happen to bulls.

What is the data from F&O suggesting?

There was some buying seen at last from FIIs and they have been seen buying Index futures. That means if NIFTY falls below 9710 then we could see some panic selling from FIIs which could take NIFTY quickly below 9680. That’s why 9710 is a very important level to protect. FIIs also have sold 9700 and 9750 calls indicating that these are the roofs for the market. 9750 has a premium of 30 rupees that makes 9780 will be a big big resistance that we could encounter for today. This kind of call shorting has brought down the NIFTY put call ratio to 1.00 from 1.11 and thats a huge negative for bulls.

What is the trade for today?

For the first time calls are making more money than puts. As the day progresses start looking at calls and see how you can make money. Shorting 9700 put is very risky and I would suggest you to do that only if you have a strong conviction that expiry happens above 9680. The premium is at 22 and you can eat that only if you short it in the morning. But my suggestion is to look at the calls and keep buying and shorting them as the day progresses. For data watchers this is the worst expiry in 2017 where NIFTY lost 182 points so far. The next worst was the November 2016 demonitization series where NIFTY lost 650 points. Lets see where the pain ends today!

Weather Update 27th September

Finally monsoon started its withdrawal. It has started withdrawing today early morning and by afternoon it has withdrawn from 75% of Rajasthan, 30% of Punjab, 20% of Haryana and 15% of Gujarat. The withdrawal line now passes through Naliya and Bhuj in Katch regions of North Gujarat, Mount Abu, Sirohi, Jodhpur and Churu in Rajasthan, Hissar in Haryana, Chandigarh and Amritsar in Punjab. This year the monsoon withdrawal is 13-20 days late.
Monsoon was active in South India which got an excess of +30% rain while the other parts of the country were dry. India as a whole got 2.6mm vs normal of 5.1mm which is a deficit of -49%. That takes the total rainfall to 827mm vs normal of 875mm which is 95% of LPA. South India is at 99% of LPA, Eastern India is at 96%, Central India is also at 96% and North western India is at 91% of LPA.

Following is the rainfall deviation in different states from normal from 1st June to 27th September.

1. Tamil Nadu +33%
2. Rest of North east +24%
3. Gujarat +23%
4. Andhra Pradesh +19%
5. Rajasthan +16%
6. Goa +10%
7. Jammu Kashmir +3%
8. Uttarakhand -2%
9. Maharashtra -3%
10. West Bengal -4%
11. Karnataka -6%
12. Bihar -8%
13. Orissa -9%
14. Jharkhand -10%
15. Kerala -10%
16. Chattisgarh -11%
17. Arunachal Pradesh -11%
18. Assam -12%
19. Himachal Pradesh -12%
20. Telangana -15%
21. Madhya Pradesh -19%
22. Punjab -21%
23. Haryana -25%
24. Uttar Pradesh -29%
Hyderabad got welcome rainfall today morning and the city as a whole got 5.2mm vs normal of 7.3mm rain till 2.30pm.

Following is the rainfall in the observatories in the city.

1. Golkonda 10.7mm
2. Begumpet 5.9mm
3. Saroornagar 5.2mm
4. Hayatnagar 4.8mm
5. Shamirpet 1.6mm
6. Hakimpet 0.2mm
Telangana got 2.5mm rain vs normal of 5.1mm which is a deficit of -49%. That took the seasonal rainfall of 628mm vs normal of 740mm which is a deficit of -15%.

Following is the deviation from normal in different districts.

1. Hyderabad +4%
2. Warangal +1%
3. Khammam 0%
4. Nalgonda -12%
5. Mahbubnagar -15%
6. Medak -16%
7. Rangareddy -21%
8. Nizamabad -24%
9. Karimnagar -27%
10. Adilabad -28%

Market set up 27th September

After an indecisive day yesterday, today seems to be a slightly better and positive day. US markets have ended flat and Asia is trading mildly positive. The macro commentary across the World to be more or less neutral and things seem to be falling in place. Brent crude which was on the verge of breaking 60 dollars has now corrected to 58 dollars as many people took profits at 59.50 levels. This is a good news for sure. The US fed chair Janet yellen also gives a slightly positive commentary on inflation being under check thus removing fears of rise in interest rates rapidly.

What is the likely path for NIFTY today?

NIFTY is likely to open flat to positive around 9900 mark and 9950 could be the first point it will go to if it’s given free hand. The 9820-9810 levels offer strong support and I don’t think NIFTY breaking that today. If there is a dip towards 9870 levels after open, it’s a good point to buy with 9950 as target. Just keep a 40-50 point target for the positions you take in 9870-9900 levels and exit as soon as the target is reached.
The F&O data also suggests a strong resistance at 9950 levels and NIFTY has to work hard to cross this. There are call being shorted at 9900 and 9950 levels and shorting of puts at 9850 and 9800 levels. That means the expiry range as of now is 9820 to 9940 and that’s the reason why 9950 is such a strong resistance mark. There were more calls shorted than puts and some call buying at 9800 was also seen which took the NIFTY put call ratio slightly down from 1.12 to 1.11 levels.

Stock News

ICICI Lombard will list today and this is also not a great IPO according to me. Its a general Insurance company and the valuations currently dont support the 660 kind of listing which is around 25x of its FY’19 forward earnings. So the stock might correct after the listing. It could happen today or some time in the near future.

Weather update 26th September

Monsoon is very active in South India and rainfall is almost absent in other places. South India got an excess of +40% rain in last 24 hours ending at 2.30pm today. India as a whole got 2.3mm rain vs normal of 5.4mm which is a deficit of -57%. That takes the total seasonal rainfall to 824mm vs normal of 870mm which is 95% of LPA. South India is steady at 98%, Eastern India is at 96%, Central India at 95% and North western India is at 91% of LPA.

Following are the top 5 wettest states in India.

1. Telangana +65%
2. Andhra Pradesh +52%
3. Karnataka +42%
4. Tamilnadu +39%
5. Orissa -15%

Following is the ranking of different states based on the deviation from the normal rainfall from 1st June to 26th September.

1. Tamil Nadu +33%
2. Rest of North east +24%
3. Gujarat +23%
4. Andhra Pradesh +19%
5. Rajasthan +17%
6. Goa +10%
7. Jammu Kashmir +3%
8. Uttarakhand -2%
9. West Bengal -3%
10. Maharashtra -3%
11. Karnataka -7%
12. Bihar -8%
13. Jharkhand -9%
14. Orissa -9%
15. Kerala -10%
16. Chattisgarh -11%
17. Arunachal Pradesh -11%
18. Himachal Pradesh -12%
19. Assam -12%
20. Telangana -15%
21. Madhya Pradesh -19%
22. Punjab -22%
23. Uttar Pradesh -28%
24. Haryana -30%
Hyderabad got plenty of rainfall since yesterday afternoon and the city on an average got 8.4mm rainfall vs normal of 3.5mm which is an excess of +140%.

Following is the rainfall recorded in 6 observatories in the city.

1. Hayatnagar 44.8mm
2. Saroornagar 11.2mm
3. Golkonda 10.6mm
4. Begumpet 6.4mm
5. Hakimpet 0.2mm
6. Shamirpet 0mm
The Bay of Bengal wing districts like Khammam, Warangal, Nalgonda, Hyderabad got excess rain while the Arabian sea wing districts were dry. Telangana on an average got 8.1mm rain vs normal of 4.9mm which is an excess of +65%. With the total seasonal rainfall now stands at 625mm vs normal of 735mm which is a deficit of -15%.

Following is the deviation of rainfall in different districts according to their deviation from normal.

1. Hyderabad +4%
2. Warangal +2%
3. Khammam +1%
4. Nalgonda -13%
5. Mahbubnagar -15%
6. Medak -16%
7. Rangareddy -20%
8. Nizamabad -24%
9. Karimnagar -26%
10. Adilabad -28%

Market setup 26th September

Just when things started looking better North korea declares War on US!!! Though the reaction is mild, it will definitely put a speed break to the rally that started yesterday from 9850. Added to this is the brent crude that touched 59 dollars now. This is a 2 year high and that 60 dollar mark that could have a huge impact on Indian macros is just a dollar away! Rupee now hits 65 to dollar and that would put lot of pressure on Crude prices. US markets ended in red last night on Korean tensions and today Asia also is mixed and confused about what will happen to Korea!

What will happen to NIFTY today?

NIFTY will open flat around yesterday’s close and yesterday’s positions taken at 9850 should be closed as soon as 9920 is reached because that’s the maximum it can move. But if it doesn’t and if NIFTY starts to fall then exit the position at 9850 levels where you have taken a position. 9800 could be a support to watch out for and that should hold for the day. If not we are on our way to 9720 which is a big support but coming at a huge cost.

What is the F&O data telling?

Yesterday FIIs sold close to 700 Cr in futures market and have gone and bought lot of puts. Puts were unwound at 10,000 and 9950 levels and now put shorting is happening at 9850 and 9900 levels. Similarly the 10,200 and 10,100 call were abandoned and FIIs are now concerned about shorting 10,000 and 9950 calls. So in short there is shorting of calls happening at 9950 and 10,000 calls and put buying is happening at 9900 levels and put shorting is happening at 9850 and 9900 levels. The put call ratio has dropped from 1.24 to 1.12 by the close of the trade yesterday. All this is indicating the expiry range forming between 9800 and 9950.

What for today?

If you have a long position taken at 9850 wait for 9920 and exit the position. If 9920 is not reached and if 9850 is broken exit the position. NIFTY might spend some time at 9800 levels and if that happens go ahead and buy between 9800-9820 levels with 9880 as target till expiry. The situation is very dangerous and I would not suggest any positions on Options. Otherwise last week of expiry is a good time to play with options.

Macro Front

On macros, power sector will get a huge leg up with Govt announcing power for all mission by 2018 end. That could be good for power companies like REC, PFC and NTPC, ONGC. I would suggest REC as it is the nodal agency for all the power initiatives coming in the future. Pick up this stock for some good returns in the future.