How can you prevent yourself from getting a heat stroke?

April is here and it’s summer time. We live in a city that’s a concrete jungle with temperature and radiation rising with every passing year. I had a different topic for my Tuesday post but last minute I changed my mind when I looked at the way temperatures have been rising. Let me tell you some statistics and talk few precautions that one should take.

  1. Do you know that last year April month was hotter than May? Yes, April was the hottest month with the average temperature of41.5 degrees compared to May which had 39.5 as the average temperature. The highest temperature of 43.3 degrees was recorded on 13th April last year which was the highest April temperature in last 40 plus years. It was also the highest temperature for last summer. May month had a highest of only 42 degrees.
  2. 2 years out of 5 years, April had an average temperature of 41. The average temperature for April is 38 degrees only. In 2013 it was 41.3 and in 2016 it was 41.5 making it the hottest ever April. Temperatures have been rising in the last 15 years continuously. Last 5 years averaged 39 degrees compared to 38 degrees in 2007-2011 and 37.5 degrees the 5 years before that. Hyderabad is slowly becoming a concrete jungle.
  3. This year April is having an average of 39.8 degrees for 11 days with the highest of 40.8 degrees. The feel like the temperature is 2 to 3 degrees higher than actual high draining all the fluids from your body. Adding to that is the dust and pollution. Humidity is also one of the lowest ever averaging around 36. Such low humidity means dry air that further absorbs all the vital fluids.

How to prevent yourself from getting a heat stroke?

  1. Drink plenty of fluids. Maintain adequate glucose and salt content in your body by taking fruit juices and non-aerated drinks plenty of times in a day.
    2. Wear lighter shades of clothes and avoid going out in the sun especially on two wheelers.
    3. Avoid too much exercising or gymming as it can have an adverse impact on the balance of your body fluids.
    4. Avoid direct exposure to the sun after spending long hours in Air conditioned rooms. Sudden change in the temperature will be harmful.

How to identify symptoms of heat stroke?
1. You feel too thirsty and too weak. Muscle cramps are also common.
2. Dizziness and mild fever with nauseating sensation
3. Lack of sweating followed by cold chilling feeling.

Many bodies are not adaptable to summers and it takes time. Give it time and go slow. Keep yourself protected and wait for the monsoons, which is just 2 months away now! And monsoon is my favorite season!

CPI, WPI & Interest Rates

Inflation – Inflation, as everyone understands, is the key economic term which talks about the gap between supply and demand. The rate of inflation for example at 4% means the price of products will go up by 4%.

Inflation is again of two types they are 
CPI Consumer Price Index – Inflation that is measured at the point of Purchase.
 WPI – Whole Price Index – This is the supply side Inflation where it deals with measuring the inflation at the point of production.

CPI figures come out at 3.65% for the month of Feb-17 which looks decent and under control of RBI but consider the point that CPI last month was at 3.17%. Keeping aside CPI for some time let’s move onto WPI. WPI numbers come at 6.55% for Feb-17 which is the highest in last 18 months. The gap between the CPI and WPI inflation is 2.88% which is a very big difference for any country.
Always for the economy, CPI is found to be more than WPI but for last few months, the WPI in India is found to be more than CPI.

So, which is better?

CPI greater than WPI or WPI greater than CPI.

WPI as understood is the supply side inflation where it decides how much to produce based on demand. The increase in WPI inflation means actual supply is lesser than the expected supply. The reasons are completely depended on the economic conditions at that time. CPI inflation is higher when there is not enough supply to meet the increasing demand.

To understand it clearly supply happens in the form of production and moves to the point of purchase that is CPI. If there is a change in the demand that increases the inflation in CPI. The increased demand triggers increase in supply at WPI and keep the inflation at WPI lower. So, a higher CPI always encourages higher production and higher production triggers higher GDP growth.

A Higher WPI inflation means lower supply and the lower supply means lower growth and lower GDP.

How do you increase the Supply? 

Your supply will be more when the interest rates are lower. This is because at the lower interest rates the cost of production will be lower and you can make profits by producing more. So, WPI should always be lesser than CPI.

But Why WPI came at 6.55% and CPI came at 3.65%? Whom to Blame?
This is because of no rate cut decision was taken by RBI in the last monetary policy. RBI did not go for a rate cut and lost the chance of increasing the supply. The reason is RBI was worried rate cut would increase the demand at CPI. This will further increase the inflation if supply doesn’t go up. But now also inflation is increasing from WPI side because of lack of supply.
Thus, RBI not decreasing the interest rate did not serve the purpose.

What should be done on next RBI policy on 5th April?

I want RBI to wake up and cut the interest rates by least 50basis points. This decreases the interest rates to 5.75%. It will also boost the stock market which is at an all-time high. RBI should stop worrying about Crude oil prices and demand worries.

To conclude Nifty has already reached its all-time high after Modi wave in UP elections. Now it’s the time to take it to a higher level by improving the macroeconomic fundamentals. If this happens I’m sure we will celebrate this Diwali with a 10,000 on Nifty.

#Mission10k #Nifty #Inflation #RiskforReturns

Gross Domestic Product Quarter 3

GDP – Gross Domestic product is the value of the goods and services produced in a country within specific period of time. India follows the fiscal year from Apr 1st present year to Mar 31st next year.

Gross Domestic Product is calculated both quarterly and annually. Let me talk about today’s GDP figures which was the most awaited report from CSO this year after the Govt’s reform Demonetization. Every Economist and Expert was expecting the figure to come at 6.0% to 6.5% with a fall of 0.5% to 1%. But the reality wasn’t the same, everybody got treated with unexpected & shocking figure of Q3 GDP at 7.0% which is more than the that of Last year Q3 GDP at 6.9%.

Every economist after looking at figures makes a statement saying ‘This is shocking &surprising, need to look at the numbers very carefully’. We are no better than economist and when they tell this there is really something to be studied upon.

Everybody can’t do that though, so what is the reality behind GDP for Q3?

Should we celebrate the figure of 7.0%? No, not at all.

Has Demonetization not affected country’s growth?

Yes, it did affect.

What really made this figure go to 7.0% then?
It’s still mysterious and unconvincing. What pushed the GDP is definitely the agriculture growth which is at 6%, 2% more than expected. Public administration comes at 11.9%. Real estate as expected falls to 3.1%. These are three things which were clearly acceptable. What about the Manufacturing growth which is at big 8.3%! When you have core sector data contracting and IIP also coming lower! Are HUL and other Automobile Giants giving out wrong data? You have economist saying that the growth is real and it’s because all the inventories by producer are dumped with Suppliers.

Stop Nonsense!

Okay Let me tell you why it looks 7.0%.

  1. Lower base of 6.9% Q3(15-16) is the one aspect which pushes the present GDP to 7.0%.
  2. Government made high public spending which comes at 11.9% due to the implementation of seventh pay commission.
  3. Third and most crucial point is the fantastic Agriculture growth which was -2.2% in previous year which comes at 6.0%. Real growth of 8.2%.
  4.  Advance tax payments made by people played its part
  5. Manufacturing Growth comes at 8.3% which is because of dumping of inventories with suppliers that means it will be adjusted in next quarter i.e. GDP Q4

Demonetization – According to chief statistician the effects of demonetization are hard to measure and so this GDP is not a final verdict on whether demonetization has impacted the growth or not Let’s wait and Watch!

This means that there is real danger of Q4 GDP coming much lower than this GDP figure of 7.0%. Let’s wait for GDP for 4th Quarter, which will surely answer all the unanswered questions!

To Conclude is this the Best ever salesmen job done by PM. Narendra Modi? Or We see this as real growth in India.

#PostDeMoGDP #Quarter4GDP #India #Economics

Industrial Production (IIP)

IIP up 5.7% year-on-year in November

The second week of the month and we have Industrial production (IIP) figures out giving 5.7% growth year-on-year. That’s a great boosting news for the Indian economy.

So, how 5.7 %?
IIP constitutes of three sectors (Mining, Manufacturing & Electricity)
Mining growth doubled to 3.9% when compared to 1.7% last year, Manufacturing grew outstandingly to 5.5% from -4.5% in same month last year and finally, Electricity saw 8.9% growth when compared to 0.7% year-on-year. This figure aggregates to 5.7% growth over -3.4% Year-on-year. So, these figures mean India has grown very good even in the toughest period of a year after the big economic reform of Demonetization. Whereas many expected the demand to fall and production to take some pause, didn’t the companies cut down their production even after knowing that demand would fall, but do numbers lie?

5.7% figure is actually true but also not true, true because we can see the details very clear and data proves that the growth is real. Yes, it also proves that the growth is not actual growth. To explain you clearly, it’s the base effect and it has to be understood that 5.7 is actually not 5.7. If you see the two sectors which showed positive from negative growth it’s because of the original fall that they had in last year. Manufacturing has seen a fall of -8.9% from October month and Electricity has seen -5.95% fall in November compared to October. Whereas this year the October month had enough production and November hasn’t seen so much of fall. Which is making figures look so attractive whereas they are not so attractive.
But that’s not all in every sector if you see the figures in use-based classification, capital goods are the performer of the month showing a huge growth of 15% from -24% year-on-year and we need to really appreciate this fact!

To end this, firstly demand did fall due to demonetization and companies did cut down the production so the 5.7 is not real figure and it has taken that support from base effect though I still feel that if not a great IIP this is a good IIP data. Secondly, my objective here was to only find out the real news in this big news and to bring out the hidden truth behind the mega 5.7 figure!!

Consumer Price Index = Inflation

Inflation is the nothing but the gap between supply and demand
So, CPI figures came out today which showed 3.17% inflation which is lower than last month’s inflation figure of 3.41%. Time to be happy and celebrate!

No, it’s not the time to celebrate but to worry!

The first point to consider is that in the February monetary policy RBI didn’t go for any rate cut and changed policy view from ‘accommodative’ to ‘neutral’. The point on which RBI banked upon was Food inflation going up but to nobody’s surprise Food Inflation comes at 0.53, urban CFPI comes out at -0.31(deflation) & Rural at 1.07.

Secondly why deflation and should we are not happy with deflation?
Deflation is a phenomenon which happens when the supply is more than demand and the reason why we have higher supply than demand is because of good Agri production thanks to great monsoon. Which is why we see pulses; vegetables & other food products prices are falling or increasing at slow pace.
We shouldn’t be happy with deflation is because the fall in demand is a big factor for any economy and it will act against the overall growth of the economy.

Now the reason is consumer’s disposable income. The reason for lower disposable income is because of supply of other commodities going down which is why the circulation of money in the market has come down and that’s when in order to control demand for few products you have cut down the demand for food which is why it is into deflation. One needs to understand that Food industry is very sensitive and any effect is first seen in Urban Market which slowly moves to Rural market. If this continues you will soon see Agriculture sector into troubles and you will see that all that you are doing for farmers will be of waste.

It’s very simple and known fact that numbers don’t lie and if PDGM student can see this all I’m sure the big people can also see it but why play safe and put a halt to economic growth.

My Take: Cut down rates, it’s late but not very late. Let the consumer spending increase or you will slowly see the demand falling for every other product and soon see deflation for a Country which is still under developing tag*

Take risks and Take Growth.

#Inflation #Macroeconomics #India #February

17 in 17 by end of 17

Hello 2017, Hello January!

10 days into New Year and we are all welcoming the year with lots of hope to make it a big year for each of us.

“Big year” – What makes this year big?
Many would’ve made mistakes yesteryear and would never want not to repeat them this year. One such mistake that every one of us makes is parking money in Banks!

Yes! You read it right. In Bank, we save money and take home 4-7 % returns thinking that we are becoming rich but what we don’t understand is with inflation figures at 5% we are actually making only 1-2% returns on our parked money.

Yeah. But what else is possible?

10+% returns are possible and the Stock market is a way to achieve that target.

Give yourself a chance to invest in stocks and make 10₹ extra for every 100₹ you invest. A stock market is a place where you can make money with ease and yes there is a risk in it but like the old saying goes “Higher the risk, Higher are the returns”.

Is it a good time to invest?
Yes, Absolutely! With demonetization, many things changed. We are slowly moving from a cash economy to cashless economy and no doubt that this reform has completely taken its toll on Indian Stock Market. Markets fell and corrected in this period of demonetization to make this the right time for one to enter into the market.

A Stock reacts to various internal and external factors making it clear for an investor to choose right company with good analysis. It has to be understood that stock markets will never give losses and one has to believe in this fact. Companies react to news and sometimes it becomes harder for the market to take the news and there can be a drastic fall but that’s not the end of the story. Like what goes back comes around, we have to wait for it and the stock will definitely go upwards and give you profits!

All you need to do is have patience and never panic. 
Choose your stocks, set targets and start making money!!

Oh God, So much to do?
Never worry!

I have the list of 17 stocks which can give you 17% returns for 2017

  1. ONGC – Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited
    Public Sector undertaking which is one of the Navaratna
    Buy price – 200
    Target – 255
  2. Tata Motors – Indian Automotive Giant
    Buy Price – 518
    Target – 590
  3. RBL Bank – New Player with lot of Potential
    Buy Price – 360
    Target – 425
  4. ITC – India Tobacco Company ( Smoke Profits)
    Buy Price – 268
    Target – 335
  5. Adani Power – Looks Cheap yet Powerful
    Buy Price – 33
    Target – 48
  6. TVS Motors – Let’s Ride on TVS
    Buy Price – 385
    Target – 520
  7. Voltas – Get yourself a AC in Summer but now get the stock
    Buy Price – 345
    Target – 440
  8. Eros International Media – Rock on 2 failed but EROS Won’t
    Buy Price – 178
    Target – 235
  9. Godrej Properties – Venture from people with heart of steel
    Buy Price – 325
    Target – 385
  10. Indiabulls Real Estate – Brokerage firm with pie on land
    Buy Price – 80
    Target – 105
  11. JM Financial – Consultancy from Pioneer Investment Banker
    Buy Price – 70
    Target – 95
  12. Yes Bank Ltd. – Yes! The bank that gives you 7% interest
    Buy Price – 1265
    Target – 1475
  13. State Bank of India – The Mother of all banks
    Buy Price – 250
    Target – 300
  14. Wipro – The IT Company born from Vanaspathi
    Buy Price – 478
    Target – 600
  15. India Cements Ltd – Proud MS Dhoni Sponsor!
    Buy Price – 130
    Target – 165
  16. Motherson Sumi Systems Ltd – Indian MNC Spare parts manufacturer
    Buy Price – 330
    Target – 390
  17. Vedanta Ltd. – The Controversial million dollar stock.
    Buy Price – 230
    Target – 300

Doesn’t is look so easy? 
Of course not… “Stock markets are subject to market risks read scheme related documents carefully before investing”

Not to scare you all more, it’s very important for one to have three things to become successful investor and they are 
– Patience 
– Belief &
– NO Greed

One needs to keep this three things in mind while investing and after investing it all looks like game where you might see the markets falling down badly and your portfolio looks miserable, but maintain patience and wait your returns going nowhere and in the same way once you achieve the target never wait for any more time get out of the stock and sell them, greed is bad.

So, get set ready to make this year a Big year!

To end it Like one of my friend was talking about earning and then investing, I would want to suggest that just cut down the amount we spend on our day to day activities for a month and take that money to invest. In no time, you will see good returns and oh yeah by 2018 you will become richer!!

All the Best People! 
Happy Investment Year 2017