Market Trade Setup 15th October #NIFTY

Market set up 15th October

Third week of the month starts on a different note. Winter is slowly setting in and hope this also brings change in the momentum and the outlook of the market. Friday saw a mammoth rally of nearly 300 points and that has brought us back and erased many losses made. Now we are touching 10500 levels, something we didnt dream of just 3 days ago. US ended on the positive territory on Friday with Dow gaining close to 300 points like nifty and Brent Crude is also at 81.4 dollars which is very tolerable. Asia today is in red due to disappearance of a journalist in Saudi Arabia and the tensions.

On the domestic front, we have a different cues to play with. The inflation numbers have come for the month of September and the inflation is again lower than 4% comes at 3.77% vs 3.69% seen in August and 3.28% seen in September last year. This means practically there is no rise in inflation and RBI’s decision of not hiking the interest rates was right and markets might have to acknowledge this. The only worry is Rupee now and if that stabilizes then things would look rosy. Only worry is IIP that comes at 4.3% but market would like to ignore it on the back of CPI. On the Q2 results front, this week is going to be important with lot of big companies lined up for results.

Following are the Q2 results expected today. 

1. Delta Corp
2. Indiabulls Housing Finance
3. IndusInd bank
4. Network 18
5. Reliance Industrial Infrastructure
6. South Indian bank
7. TV18 Broadcasting 
8. Zee Media

On the derivatives front, there was a massive short covering that was seen as markets was recovering from the fall. Though the buying on the Futures was limited many traders who have taken short positions started to unwind their positions as the markets went up. This was reflected very clearly on the options market where the Nifty put call ratio went up to 1.21 from 1.07 seen at the beginning of Friday. All across there was demand for puts with 10100 put adding 6.1 lakh positions, 10400 put adding 6 lakh positions, 10300 put adding 5.7 lakh positions. The traders are shorting these puts to cash on in the rise in premiums of these puts as markets fell. 10000 put and 11000 call still continue to have highest accumulated open interest indicating there is lot of upside still left.

What is the Nifty call for the day?

Nifty will have a open around 10450 level on the back of a weak Asia, and there is a fundamental of geo-political tension arising with the disappearance of US journalist from Saudi. At the lower end Nifty might test 10380 levels and will get support in 10380-10400levels and on the upside 10500-10520 is a resistance level. You can go long again today when Nifty is below 10450 levels with 10500-10520 or 50-60 points as the target from wherever you take that position.

Bhagavadgita Chapter 12 Bhakti Yoga Verse 15

Chapter 12 Bhakti Yoga Verse 15

Yasmaannodwijate loko lokaannodwijate cha yah;
Harshaamarshabhayodwegairmukto yah sa cha me priyah.

He by whom the world is not agitated and who cannot be agitated by the world, 
and who is freed from joy, envy, fear and anxiety—he is dear to Me.

Interpretation

This is another shloka where Lord Krishna is talking about the qualities of people who are dear to Him. After listing many qualities in two shlokas before, lord Krishna here talks about the inherent qualities of a person who is dear to Him. The first is the person against whom the world is not agitated and a person who cannot be agitated by the world such a person is dear to Him. Finally Lord Krishna ends the shloka by saying that a person who is free from joy, envy, fear and anxiety is dearest to Him.

Extending Interpretation to Mankind’s Life!

The phrase to be understood in this shloka is “He by whom World is not agitated and who cannot be agitated by World”. In the first part of the phrase we are talking about a person against whom the world can never be agitated. What is the meaning of that? A person who is so good, kind hearted and lives for others that the world is never angry on him. One should lead such a kind of life that every minute of his life is dedicated to others. He should be that candle which burns to give light to others, not that fire which burns everything that it catches up. 

The second part of the phrase talks about the person who cannot be agitated by World. Good people are always put to test. Their temperament, their will power and their strength to stand-by things are always tested by the world by throwing challenges at them. A person who is dearest to God will accept all these challenges and never gets agitated by anything that the World says to him. Even the most negative thing, he takes it positively because its the dharma of him that is most important for him, not the demands that people around him make. So if one who is not agitated by the world, world can never agitate him. In that way, the phrase talks about both kinds of qualities in one person.

Bhagavadgita Chapter 12 Bhakti Yoga Verse 14

Chapter 12 Bhakti Yoga Verse 14

Santushtah satatam yogee yataatmaa dridhanishchayah;
Mayyarpitamanobuddhiryo madbhaktah sa me priyah.

Ever content, steady in meditation, possessed of firm conviction, self-controlled, 
with mind and intellect dedicated to Me, he, My devotee, is dear to Me.

Interpretation

This shloka is the second part of what Lord Krishna says to Arjuna about the people who are closest and dearest to Him. After talking about compassion, free from attachment and egoism in this shloka He talks about more qualities that a person should possess. He says that a person should be content and steady in his meditation and should have a mind which is full of conviction and self control. Apart from that He also talks about the mind and intellect of the person completely dedicated to Him. Only such people says, Lord Krishna are closest to Him.

Extending Interpretation to Mankind’s Life!

The key phrase here is “Ever content, steady in meditation possessed with firm conviction and self control”. It has a world of depth in it. Here we are talking about a person who is steady in his meditation. Meditation here is what he is doing or his dharma. We have learnt previously that our dharma is something that we should meditate upon. What disturbs the person who is meditating his dharma? Temptations. Temptations can be physical, emotional, monetary or the words said by people who matter to him, that sticks to his mind. When a person gets tempted by those words, he then tends to waver in his meditation. 

Such kind of wavering nature will disturb him from his task and that is where the other three words used in the phrase come into picture. Those are content, conviction and control. If he is content with what God has given, come what may, he would not have been tempted at all. If he had the conviction or belief that the path he is walking, nothing would have tempted him at all. If he had the control over the senses as to not get tempted by things around, good or bad he would not have been tempted at all. Thus temptations are the results of lack of conviction, control and contentness.

Everyone of us in this world feel that the grass on the other side is green. But when you go the other side chasing the greener pastures, you belong to other side and you can never come back to this side. Even if you do, you will always have a guilt that you tasted the grass that you shouldn’t have. Life is all about beliefs, convictions and controls and the one who possesses them is the one who will always be closer to God. He is not closer to God because he is stuck to one task, he is closer to God because he believed in what God has given him. God never gives wrong things. You just need to believe in what God has given you and not what the other side has to offer you. And if you believe that God is on the other side, then you have to conclude that everything you did till now is evil.

Bhagavadgita Chapter 12 Bhakti Yoga Verse 13

Chapter 12 Bhakti Yoga Verse 13

Adweshtaa sarvabhootaanaam maitrah karuna eva cha;
Nirmamo nirahankaarah samaduhkhasukhah kshamee.

He who hates no creature, who is friendly and compassionate to all, 
who is free from attachment and egoism,  balanced in pleasure and pain, and forgiving,

Interpretation

Lord has now shifted His focus of attention from those who get salvation to those dearest to Him. This is the first part of the two-part shloka where Lord Krishna tells Arjuna the qualities that a person should possess for becoming dearest to Him. He says that a person who hates no creature in this planet and who shows equal compassion to all His creations is considered to be closest to Him. Not only that, all those who are free from all the attachments in this world and also has won over the ego are also closer to Him, Then He says that the ones who are balanced in happy and sad situations and those who have a forgiving nature are the ones who are closest to Him.

Extending Interpretation to Mankind’s Life!

Many times before we have discussed in Gita about these qualities. But the point we have to understand is, why such people are considered close to God? Pain and pleasure are not given by God but they come as a result of attachment we have towards people, materialistic things and situations. When someone closest to us is going away from us, its very natural that you experience the pain. But will you stop that person from going? Except for God, nobody has the power to do that. The question here is why people tend to get so attached to people, situations, and things?

The attachment has two dimensions in it. One is a sensual attachment and other is a spiritual attachment. When you get a person or situation in life, its gifted by God and you need to do complete justice to it. Unless you get attached to the person it’s not possible to do your dharma on that person. Example is the attachment that a teacher has on student. Its created by God. Your attachment stays as long as the student stays in that place. Neither you should leave the student before nor you should have an attachment with him after he finishes his education with you. This is called as a spiritual attachment and it is desirable for every person in whatever job he is into. 

It’s these attachments which bring balance and compassion in our lives. If you are attached to a person via the spiritual route you will be compassionate towards him without any ego and you will be balanced in all your actions. But if the attachment is sensual, that is connected to appearance or materialistic benefits or any situations that can profit you those attachments, they are undesirable and you either leave a person if those benefits are not coming or keep the attachment even after your work with that person is over. Here you have neglected dharma and went behind materialistic benefit. If all of us, understand our dharmas and adhere to them 100% then all the mentioned things above never exist and the life of Satya Yuga will be back. But as we are in Kali-yuga these imperfections exist and one has to find the right kind of things to balance and become closer to God. 

Market Trade Setup 12th October #NIFTY

Market Trade Setup 12th October

Yesterday was a red day globally and when we ended more than 250 points down on Nifty, all the European markets ended in red and the US markets also were in the sea of red. Dow Jones fell by 550 points and in just 2 days Dow lost 1400 points which is huge. All the European markets also fell by nearly 2% including Russia. But today morning seems to be a slightly different day in Asia with some recovery seen in Asia. If Japan is down 120 points, Hong Kong is up 130 points. Even the Dow futures is indicating a recovery and all that will put some positivity when we open in half an hour time from now.

On the domestic front, the biggest positive for us will be the drop in Brent Crude prices which is now trading at 80.6 dollars. Clearly it is a big drop from 86.7 dollars seen just 4 days ago. We can see petrol prices coming down a bit today. Apart from that Rupee also seems to have stabilized and today it might move around 74 and might even come down below 74. On the Q2 results front, TCS came out with their Q2 last evening and it is a decent number if not a great number. It might not take the stock up, but TCS which fell by 12% in recent time, might stop the fall and start to recover.

Following are the Q2 results expected today. 

1. Hindustan Unilever
2. Karnataka Bank
3. Tata sponge

On the derivatives front, the 300 point fall on Nifty has triggered a massive shorting in the Nifty futures and for sometime, Nifty futures went from premium to discount. This has resulted in a massive fall and the overall positions on Nifty futures now stand at 33% which is again the lowest in this series. In the options market, even the put call ratio has dropped to the lowest in multi series of 1.08 from 1.27 we seen at the before opening yesterday. Many puts unwound their positions and its the calls that were in demand. 10500 call added 9.5 lakh positions and 10600 call added 6.6 lakh positions and 10300 call added 6.3 lakh positions. Still 10000 put and 11000 call continue to have the highest accumulated open interest indicating a high volatile movement in this series.

What is the Nifty call for the day?

Today Nifty will open slightly positive around 10250-10270 levels and today’s markers on the upside is 10350-10380 level and on the downside 10180 is a strong support. Thus today we can have some volatility and I suggest taking a long position in the Nifty around 10260-10280 levels with 10350 as the target. You can minimum look for 40-50 point profit. Yesterday also, if you have entered at 10200 levels you would have made almost 80 points as Nifty went to 10280 before correcting.

Bhagavadgita Chapter 12 Bhakti yoga verse 12

Chapter 12 Bhakti yoga verse 12

Shreyo hi jnaanamabhyaasaat jnaanaaddhyaanam vishishyate;Dhyaanaat karmaphalatyaagas tyaagaacchaantir anantaram.

Better indeed is knowledge than practice; than knowledge meditation is better;than meditation the renunciation of the fruits of actions; peace immediately follows renunciation.

Interpretation

This is a different shloka from all the previous ones and here Lord Krishna puts various things that a person should do in a chronological sequence. First He says knowledge is more important than blindly practicing something without knowing it. Then He says that meditating on thoughts and about self is considered better than knowledge. He then talks about the renunciation of the fruits of every action that one does and says that this renunciation is better than the meditation. Finally Lord also says that when someone renounces the fruits of all his actions to God, peace automatically dawns upon him.

Extending Interpretation to Mankind’s Life!

We all look for peace in our lives. There is so much of activity that we want some peace to be there so that we can feel at ease and feel good about ourselves. Have you ever thought what can give you ultimate peace? When you do your actions not getting attached to them, you get peace of mind. We all have expectations from people and things and that normally leads to disappointments. But just do your work with no expectations and see how different you feel. Its easier said than done. Then the next question that comes is when will you get master the art of doing things with a feeling of renunciation?

That is possible only when you can meditate. Meditation brings unification of thoughts and that unification of thoughts will help you achieve renunciation. But not everyone can meditate. Meditation is never an easy process. You can master meditation only when you have knowledge. So, knowledge about things helps you to meditate where you unify them. Knowledge is acquired through practice. Thus if we see in reverse, practice gives knowledge, knowledge fecilitates meditation, meditation leads to renunciation of the fruits of all actions and when you renounce everything peace dawns upon you. This is the secret of happiness.

Market Trade Setup 11th October #NIFTY

Market Trade Setup 11th October

An important lesson to learn in the market is every break out is not a true break out, whatever may be the reason quoted. Yesterday, on the back of the fundamental news of SBI taking over some of the bad loans of NBFCs we have seen a huge rally of 150 points and 10400 level was crossed. But look at today. We are going to witness the worst opening of 2018 when Nifty will open more than 250 points down right at 10200 level. This presents the danger of Nifty even moving towards 10150-10180 zone and all the euphoria that last 2 days has generated will be gone by today afternoon. What triggered this sell off?

Its a global fall triggered by the fact that inflation in US is going up and so will be the interest rates and some excessive valuation of equities, bonds and commodities was done not taking into consideration the right growth and inflation trajectory. Dow Jones lost more than 850 points, NASDAQ saw the worst fall in 2 years losing 400 points and Brent Crude came crashing down from above 85 dollars to 81.8 dollars and Asia is in the ocean of red with Japan and Hong kong both down more than 900 points each. In the world of such red what is the use of talking about Indian fundamentals? TCS will come up with their Q2 results in the evening today.

On the derivatives front, we have seen some danger signals yesterday itself when the futures premium has dropped from 30 points to just 6 points. That indicates that though Nifty is going up the Nifty futures value is not going up by that much indicating that the bullishness seen in cash market was not reflected in Futures market of Nifty index. Options market also saw some bullishness with puts more in demand than calls and the Nifty put call ratio has risen to 1.16 from 1.12. 10000 put and 11000 call still continue to have maximum accumulated open interest but no use talking about it as today things are going to change rapidly.

What is the Nifty call for the day?

Asian markets and SGX shows that Nifty will open around 10200 levels and when you have such a big fall what do you do? Options markets indicate that 9950 is the bottom for this market. So, I suggest just wait and see what exactly is the bottom. Carefully observe the Dow Futures and how europe opens. If you feel that bottom is in place at 10100 or 10200 or 10250 or 10050 take a long position with small 40-60 point target and play safe. Today is going to be a tough day so trade cautiously.

Bhagavadgita Chapter 12 Bhakti Yoga Verse 11

Chapter 12 Bhakti Yoga Verse 11

Athaitadapyashakto’si kartum madyogamaashritah;
Sarvakarmaphalatyaagam tatah kuru yataatmavaan.

If thou art unable to do even this, then, taking refuge in union with Me, 
renounce the fruits of all actions with the self controlled.

Interpretation

This Bhakti yoga is all about a series of steps that one needs to take to attain salvation. The substantial part of like Bhakti Yoga is concentrated at worshipping God in His form. In the last shloka Lord Krishna advises to do all the actions in His name if a person is unable to follow Abhyasa Yoga. In this shloka Lord tells what to do if a person is unable to do actions in the name of God. He says that if a person fails in that also then that person should take refuge in Him and renounce the fruits of all his actions to the self controlled, referring to Himself. 

Extending Interpretation to Mankind’s Life!

The question we have to ask here is why a person is unable to do things in the name of God? Previous shloka talked about his inability to surrender and that is understandable. But why does a person not do things in the name of God? There are many reasons for it. There are many things good and bad that we have to do in life and we have no choice in it. Such things we cant do in the name of God. Suppose someone is having a business of making leather products. For making leather he need to kill animals or use the skin of animals. Definitely he cannot kill animals in the name of God. His conscious will prevent him from doing so. 

Thus if he fails in one task, naturally he will not be motivated to offer and do things in the name of God. Sometimes we have to tell lies to save ourselves or mislead people to meet some of our objectives. All these things cant be done in the name of God. Thus if a person fails to do things in his name, he should at least leave the result to him is what Lord is saying here. Leaving the result to him means, do things but leave the result in the hands of God. This is almost similar to doing things and not expecting a result, but there is a small difference in both.

The difference is, when you leave the fruits of the actions to God, you will be satisfied with the outcome. Whatever maybe the outcome of that action, you will accept it thinking that it is the gift of God. Previously I was talking about doing uncomfortable things like telling lies or misleading people. Here, when you do that, you wont do that in the name of God but you always say that oh God, am doing this work because I have to do, I leave the consequences of it in your hands. You only decide what I to get as the result. If you have such a kind of thinking in every action that you do, then also you will attain the perfection required for the salvation is what Lord Krishna says here.

Market Trade Setup 10th October #Nifty

Market set up 10th October

Some sanity seems to have arrived in the market yesterday and people are now getting profits when they are buying. Yes, bulls are back and after a bear rule for almost 10 days, bulls are slowly coming back, inch by inch. Yesterday’s 80 point rally from the bottom after a volatile Monday is an indication that things are slowly turning for bulls. You might have profited from the longs taken yesterday and today is a different day. Today’s global cues are mixed with US markets ending flat to negative and Asia today is trading in flat to positive zone. The dollar index has corrected to 95.5 from 95.8 and Brent Crude is trading at 84.8 dollars which means not much pressure on Petrol prices today.

On the domestics front, the rupee has been falling despite dollar index falling and today maybe we can expect Rupee to come below 74 mark. The big news for the day is SBI announcing that it will buy the good quality NBFC stocks and that means good tidings for these NBFCs which have been battered and lost around 30-60% in the last few days. There might be some recovery in those stocks. In other news, Q2 results will officially kick off from today.

Following are the Q2 results expected today.
1. Bandhan bank
2. Indiabulls Ventures
3. Zee entertainment 

On the derivatives front, yesterday was a perfect day with equal number of long and short positions taken in the Futures market and the premium remained more or less stable. The options market has also seen equal number of positions on calls and puts and that kept the Nifty put call ratio almost stable at 1.11 from 1.12 see at the beginning at the day yesterday. 10000 put added 2.2 lakh positions and now it is establishing itself as the base for this series. On the call side 11000 call added 3.7 lakh positions and it is now establishing itself as the roof for the series. At 10300 we have a lot of room to go up in the series as for the options chart is concerned.

What is the Nifty call for the day?

A flat to positive Asia means we will also open in green around 10320-10340 levels and last 2 days have shown that 10400 is a big resistance that Nifty was not able to climb. To go to that 11000 Nifty has to cross this 10400 hurdle and we need a fundamental news for that to happen. But for today, you can again take a long position anywhere around 10310-10340 zone with 10380-10400 as  the target. You can again look at 50-60 point profit margin. On the down side, Nifty might find support at 10250 level and avoid taking positions if Nifty by any chance goes below 10250 today.