Market setup 29th August

Hit on Markets

Bad news welcomes the Tuesday morning. North Korea fires a missile in the sea of Japan and that turned everything to red in Asia today. UN security council will meet today evening to discuss the North Korea situation. Korea, Japan, Hongkong, Singapore all the markets are in red. All the positivity that got generated yesterday will be wiped out to a lot of extent. We will see an opening below 9900 and we should see what happens after that. If 9900 is not taken out then there is a chance of it correcting to 9820 or below that. If buying happens then there could be a recovery during the day. Its important for NIFTY to decisively cross 9900 by the time Europe opens. Then, even in the event of Europe correcting we can take a support at 9900 and close around that. But if that doesn’t happens then there could be a break down and we might go below 9850 and towards 9800. That would be a major set back for the 10,000 expiry plans!
Yesterday’s F&O data was very positive and that could have given lot of positivity today. If North Korea was not there NIFTY would have opened around same level it closed and could have gone above 9950. This am saying because there is a buying that had started at 9800 and 9900 call which is a very good sign for NIFTY to go up. Even the shorting of put has shifted from 9800 and 9850 to 9900 and 9950 which indicates 9950 the floor for expiry. That would have taken NIFTY above 9950 today itself to build the base. All this might not happen today as the opening itself will happen below 9900.
In other news, NTPC divestment will happen shortly with 5% shares going for sale through OFS. It also has a green shoe option of another 5% subsequently. This is likely to yield 70,000 Cr to Govt. On the other hand, the filings for the July month of GST have come and the figures are not very encouraging. Govt has expected 90,000 Cr indirect tax payments, experts were hoping for a 75,000 Cr and what came out was a payment of only 60,000 Cr as indirect tax under GST. That shows many people not understanding or not consuming a product or a service due to the complex structure of taxation. Definitely this needs an attention from the govt before it really starts hurting tax collections.

Weather update 28th August

Monsoon was very active in India in last 24 hours. Both Bay of Bengal and Arabian sea wings were very active and rain was spread in most parts of the country. India as a whole got 10.8mm vs normal of 7.4mm which is an excess of +45%. South India and Central India got maximum rainfall of +71% and +90% while the rain was normal in Eastern and North western India. That takes the total seasonal rain to 661mm vs normal of 693mm which is still 95% of LPA. South India is at 91%, Central India is at 93%, North western India is at 96% and Eastern India is at 100% of LPA.

Following are the top 5 wettest places in India.

1. Kerala +243%
2. Goa +159%
3. Karnataka +154%
4. Andhra Pradesh +108%
5. Orissa +101%
Hyderabad recorded very good rain inside the city but less rains in suburbs. Hyderabad on an average got 11.0mm rain vs normal of 6.8mm which is an excess of +62%.

Following is the rainfall recorded in different observatories.

1. Begumpet 15.0mm
2. Golkonda 7.0mm
3. Hakimpet 1.8mm
4. Shamirpet 1.2mm
5. Saroornagar 0.6mm
6. Hayatnagar 0mm
Telangana got near normal rainfall with Medak recording a huge excess of +235%. Telangana on an average got 5.6mm rain vs normal of 6.4mm. That takes seasonal total to 523mm vs normal of 572mm which is still a deficit of -9%.

Following are the deviation percentages from normal.

1. Hyderabad +17%
2. Khammam +9%
3. Warangal +5%
4. Medak -2%
5. Nalgonda -8%
6. Rangareddy -12%
7. Nizamabad -16%
8. Mahbubnagar -17%
9. Karimnagar -17%
10. Adilabad -22%

Following are the top 10 wettest places in Telangana

1. Kollapur (Mahbubnagar) 56.8mm
2. Sangareddy (Medak) 38.8mm
3. Kothagudem (Warangal) 37.6mm
4. Narayankhed (Medak) 35.2mm
5. Madhira (Khammam) 31.0mm
6. Machareddy (Nizamabad) 26.8mm
7. Medak (Medak) 21.0mm
8. Marpalle (Rangareddy) 20.2mm
9. Bodhan (Nizamabad) 19.6mm
10. Alampur (Mahbubnagar) 16.6mm

Market setup 28th August

Market Update

After 3 days we are back again! This is the expiry week and expect a mild gap up around 9880 above today. SGX Nifty was flat on Friday when we were holidaying on Ganesh Chaturthi. Everything is looking neutral now and so we are starting the expiry week with positivity and optimism. Asian markets are mixed but Hong Kong is positive today which is good news for us. Today we will open around 9880 level and will try to cross 9900 level today. There is a chance that we might go near 9950 intraday which might trigger some selling. If the 9850 is sustained on the lower level and if the closing happens above 9900 today, which is very much likely, we can have a dash at 10,000 this week. Let’s hope that things go well this week and NIFTY expires above 10,000!!

Infosys

Meanwhile Infosys circus is happening around and every brokerage firm is giving Thumps up to Infy post Nandan take over. CLSA gives Infosys a target of 1070 and with Infosys at 920 now its a good 18% jump for the infosys. If you ask me, I would say AVOID. Infosys right now at 920 is trading at 13.2 times its forward valuations which 1070 will take it to almost 16 times. Not that 16 times is a higher valuation which is impossible to achieve, my only worry is are we depending too much on a man who created an Aadhar which is as controversial as the exit of Sikka from Infy. Think about it!!

Weather Update 27th August

Arabian sea wing  of monsoon is rocking while bay of bengal wing seems to be taking some rest. South India got an excess of +84% while other parts of the country was just normal. India as a whole got 8.1mm rain vs normal of 7.6mm which takes the total to 651mm vs normal of 685mm which is still 95% of LPA. South India has improved to 91% from 90% yesterday while Central India is at 92%, North western India at 96% and Eastern India is at 100%.

Following are the 5 wettest states in India.

1. Karnataka 181%
2. Kerala 149%
3. Goa 130%
4. Andhra Pradesh +32%
5. Maharashtra +29%

Following is the latest ranking of the 24 states in India with respect to deviation from normal from 1st June to 27th August.

1. Rajasthan +28%
2. Tamilnadu +27%
3. Gujarat +26%
4. Rest of North east +26%
5. Andhra Pradesh +19%
6. Jammu Kashmir +15%
7. West bengal +7%
8. Jharkhand +3%
9. Bihar +3%
10. Goa -3%
11. Uttarakhand -5%
12. Orissa -6%
13. Maharashtra -8%
14. Himachal Pradesh -9%
15. Telangana -9%
16. Arunachal Pradesh -10%
17. Chattisgarh -11%
18. Assam -12%
19. Punjab -19%
20. Karnataka -20%
21. Madhya pradesh -22%
22. Kerala -25%
23. Uttar pradesh -27%
24. Haryana -30%
Hyderabad got slightly less than normal rain in last 24 hours ending at 2.30pm today. Hyderabad on an average got 3.0mm rain vs normal of 4.6mm.

Following is the rainfall recorded in 6 different observatories in Hyderabad.

1. Saroornagar 21.6mm
2. Hayatnagar 11.4mm
3. Golkonda 4.2mm
4. Begumpet 1.8mm
5. Hakimpet 1.2mm
6. Shamirpet 0mm
Telangana got exactly normal rainfall with medak which gets rain from Arabian sea wing got 142% excess rain and Mahbubnagar which also gets rain from Arabian sea wing got +134% excess rain. Other Arabian sea wing districts like Rangareddy got +43%, Nizamabad got +20%. Bay of bengal wing districts like Nalgonda were dry at a deficit of -99%, Khammam -85% and karimnagar -85%. Telangana on an average got 6.1mm vs normal of 6.0mm which takes the seasonal total to 517mm vs normal of 566mm which is a deficit of -9%.

Following is the variations from normal in different districts.

1. Hyderabad +16%
2. Khammam +10%
3. Warangal +5%
4. Medak -4%
5. Nalgonda -7%
6. Rangareddy -11%
7. Nizamabad -15%
8. Karimnagar -16%
9. Mahbubnagar -18%
10. Adilabad -22%
Following are the top 10 wettest places in Telangana
1. Bhupalpally (Warangal) 68.4mm
2. Kothagudem (Warangal) 62.6mm
3. Doma (Rangareddy) 48.2mm
4. Alampur (Mahbubnagar) 36.8mm
5. Ghattu (Mahbubnagar) 33.6mm
6. Chennur (Adilabad) 32.2mm
7. Mulug (Warangal) 28.4mm
8. Kollapur (Mahbubnagar) 25.4mm
9. Damaragidda (Mahbubnagar) 24.0mm
10. Achampeta (MAhbubnagar) 22.0mm

Weather update 26th August

Monsoon is very active for the 2nd day today and almost every part of the country got good rainfall. South India and Central India got excess while North western and Eastern India got normal rains. India as a whole got 8.4mm rain vs normal of 7.2mm which is +16% more than normal. That takes total seasonal rainfall to 643mm vs normal of 678mm which is still 95% of LPA. South India after more than a month crossed 80s and came to 90% LPA Central India is at 92%, North western India at 97% and Eastern India at 100% LPA.

Following are the top 5 wettest states in India.

1. Telangana +260%
2. Goa +241%
3. Jammu Kashmir +133%
4. Maharastra +125%
5. Karnataka +70%
Hyderabad has broken all the records yesterday and Yesterday was the wettest day in the city for this season. City on an average got 99.4mm vs normal of 4.8mm which is +1970% higher than normal. This is a phenomenal number that took Hyderabad to top position in Telangana at an excess of +17% from a deficit of -4%.

Following is the rainfall recorded in 6 observatories in the city.

1. Begumpet 113.7mm
2. Hakimpet 108.0mm
3. Golkonda 85.0mm
4. Saroornagar 83.4mm
5. Hayatnagar 80.0mm
6. Shamirpet 52.4mm
Telangana got huge amount of rainfall and every district except Warangal and Khammam got large excess. Hyderabad topped the list with an excess of +1970%, Medak +1028%, Rangareddy +863%, Nizamabad +534%, Mahbubnagar +222%, Nalgonda +192%, Karimnagar +145%. Telangana on an average got 19.4mm rain vs normal of 5.4mm which is an excess of +260%. That took the total to 511mm vs normal of 560mm which is just -9% deficit. Now for the first time in 6 weeks the deficit has come to single digits.

Following are the different districts and deviations from the normal.

1. Hyderabad +17%
2. Khammam +11%
3. Warangal +5%
4. Medak -5%
5. Nalgonda -6%
6. Rangareddy -12%
7. Nizamabad -16%
8. Karimnagar -16%
9. Mahbubnagar -20%
10. Adilabad -23%

Following are the top 20 wettest places in Telangana

1. Machareddy (Nizamabad) 117.4mm
2. Sadashivnagar (Nizamabad) 116.8mm
3. Begumpet (Hyderabad) 113.7mm
4. Hakimpet (Hyderabad) 108.0mm
5. Lingampet (Nizamabad) 95.2mm
6. Ibrahimpatnam (Rangareddy) 89.0mm
7. Dichpalli (Nizamabad) 86.6mm
8. Adilabad (Adilabad) 85.4mm
9. Golkonda (Hyderabad) 85.0mm
10. Saroornagar (Hyderabad) 83.4mm
11. Serlingampally (Rangareddy) 81.0mm
12. Hayatnagar (Hyderabad) 80.0mm
13. Nizamabad (Nizamabad) 74.9mm
14. Medak (Medak) 73.0mm
15. Yellareddy (Nizamabad) 68.2mm
16. Sangareddy (Medak) 67.4mm
17. Metpalli (Karimnagar) 65.0mm
18. Jukkal (Nizamabad) 59.6mm
19. Nizamsagar (Nizamabad) 54.8mm
20. Yedapalli (Nizamabad) 54.6mm

Weather update 25th August

Monsoon was very very active in south India and in last 24 hours south India got 131% excess rainfall than the normal. Every state except Kerala got large amount of rainfall. Central India also got an excess of 32%. Rest of India got deficit rain. India on an average of 8.5mm vs normal of 7.4mm which is an excess of +15%. That takes the total seasonal rainfall to 634mm vs normal of 671mm which is 95% of LPA. South India has improved to 89% of LPA, Central India is at 92%, North western India was at 97% and Eastern India is at 100% LPA.

Following are the top 5 wettest states in India in last 24 hours.

1. Andhra Pradesh +400%
2. Telangana +155%
3. Orissa +127%
4. Jammu Kashmir +81%
5. Karnataka +70%

Following is the ranking of different states in percentage deficiency of rainfall from 1st June to 25th August

1. Tamilnadu +30%
2. Rajasthan +28%
3. Gujarat +27%
4. Other Northeastern states +22%
5. Andhra Pradesh +18%
6. Jammu Kashmir +15%
7. West bengal +9%
8. Jharkhand +4%
9. Bihar +4%
10. Uttarakhand -4%
11. Orissa -6%
12. Goa -6%
13. Himachal Pradesh -9%
14. Arunachal Pradesh -9%
15. Maharastra -10%
16. Chattisgarh -11%
17. Telangana -11%
18. Assam -13%
19. Punjab -19%
20. Karnataka -22%
21. Madhya Pradesh -23%
22. Kerala -26%
23. Uttar pradesh -29%
24. Haryana -30%
Hyderabad city received light rainfall in last 24 hours ending at 2.30pm today and the city on an average got 2.9mm rainfall vs normal of 3.8mm.

Following is the rainfall in 6 different observatories located in the city.

1. Hayathnagar 4.4mm
2. Saroornagar 3.8mm
3. Golkonda 3.4mm
4. Hakimpet 2.6mm
5. Begumpet 2.3mm
6. Shamirpet 1.2mm
Telangana got huge amount of rainfall in last 24 hours. Nalgonda district got +664% excess followed by Khammam district at +262%, Adilabad +233%, Karimnagar +136%. Medak and Nizamabad are the only districts with deficit rain. Telangana on an average got 12.5mm vs normal of 4.9mm which takes the total to 492mm vs normal of 554mm which is a deficit of -11% down from -13% seen yesterday.

Following is the break up of deficit seen in different districts.

1. Khammam +11%
2. Warangal +5%
3. Hyderabad -4%
4. Nalgonda -8%
5. Medak -14%
6. Karimnagar -17%
7. Rangareddy -20%
8. Nizamabad -21%
9. Mahbubnagar -23%
10. Adilabad -25%

Following are the top 10 wettest places in Telangana

1. Chennur (Adilabad) 94.4mm
2. Miryalaguda (Nalgonda) 67.6mm
3. Kaleswaram (Khammam) 62.4mm
4. Nirmal (Adilabad) 54.2mm
5. Chevella (Rangareddy) 49.2mm
6. Venkatapuram (Khammam) 47.2mm
7. Bonakal (Khammam) 47.2mm
8. Utnoor (Adilabad) 38.0mm
9. Dummugudem (Khammam) 34.0mm
10. Garla (Khammam) 33.2mm

Weather update 24th August

Monsoon revived a bit in Southern and North western India and these areas saw an increase in rainfall activity in these areas in last 24 hours. Conditions are favourable for the monsoon revival to happen in central and eastern India also in next 24 hours. India on an average got 6.9mm vs normal of 7.9mm which is almost close to normal rain. This has taken the total seasonal rainfall to 626mm vs normal of 663mm which is still 94% of LPA, the lowest in this season. South India is at 88% LPA, Central India is at 91%, North western India is at 97% and Eastern India is at 101% of LPA. Following are the top 5 wettest states in India in last 24 hours.
1. Chattisgarh +119%
2. Andhra Pradesh +111%
3. Tamilnadu +64%
4. Himachal Pradesh +63%
5. Orissa +25%
Hyderabad city was dry in the last 24 hours ending at 2.30pm and none of the areas in Hyderabad got any rain. Rainfall was weak in Telangana in every district except Khammam district which got double than the normal rain. Telangana on the average got 2.0mm rain vs normal of 5.3mm taking the total to 479mm vs normal of 549mm which is a deficit of -13%.

Following is the break up of rainfall in different districts.

1. Khammam +9%
2. Warangal +4%
3. Hyderabad -4%
4. Nalgonda -12%
5. Medak -14%
6. Karimnagar -18%
7. Nizamabad -21%
8. Rangareddy -21%
9. Mahbubnagar -24%
10. Adilabad -27%

Following are the top 10 wettest locations in Telangana in last 24 hours

1. Palawancha (Khammam district) 63.4mm
2. Sathupalle (Khammam district) 46.2mm
3. Burgampadu (Khammam district) 44.6mm
4. Kothagudem (Khammam district) 40.2mm
5. Bhadrachalam (Khammam district) 21.6mm
6. Julurpad (Khammam district) 19.6mm
7. Venkatapuram (Khammam district) 18.6mm
8. Utnur (Adilabad district) 13.2mm
9. Chandrugonda (Khammam district) 12.4mm
10. Tekulapalli (Khammam district) 10.2mm

Market setup 24th August

Every second day Trump does something which becomes a reason for US markets to feel jittery and fall. Yesterday night it was his statement that he will shut the Govt. to build a wall across US-Mexico border that created ripples in US markets and Dow lost 90 points by the time it closed. Asia didn’t take that very seriously and even India might not react to it that much but we can’t say the same about Europe as its proximity with US is much higher. So how markets react in the afternoon needs to be seen closely. For now Asia is in mild green and NIFTY might open flat at around 9850 and what happens later needs to be watched carefully.
My suggestion at the beginning of the week to go long at 9760-9780 zone with 9850 as target has been achieved yesterday. I assume that the long positions taken would have been closed by yesterday evening. If not, I suggest to exit them at the first available opportunity early in the morning today. Today it will be flat markets with a chances of less upward movement. Selling at the 9850 levels and lack of buying might even drag the NIFTY down later in the day and we might see NIFTY testing the 50dma again. Will it take support there and close above that or break it and provide relief to the bear need to be seen. With global uncertainties looming large nobody wants to keep their long positions open for the 3 day weekend.
F&O data also suggests a down day today as FIIs unwound lot of their long positions they created when 9850 was achieved yesterday. Now the FII long exposure in Futures stands at 51% which is the lowest in this series. The premium of the Futures also came down from 19 points at the beginning of yesterday to 10 points at the end of the day. That indicates a massive unwinding of long positions. Also in options market the 10,000 call continue to get lot of shorts and that makes it very difficult for NIFTY to cross 10,000 level. But one good news is shorting happening at 9800 put which will keep NIFTY at 50dma levels for the rest of the series. The NIFTY put call ratio rose to 1.19 yesterday from 1.09 seen the day before.
In stock news, Infosys will rally a bit today on the news of Nandan coming back as the non executive chairman of Infy. How much will it rise will 900 be held will there be any selling for weekend needs to be seen.

Weather update 23rd August

Monsoon was very weak in the last 24 hours and most of the India got large amount of deficit rain. Except parts of Rajasthan, North eastern states and Haryana rest of the places got very low rainfall. India on the average got 3.6mm rain vs normal of 8.3mm which is a deficit of -57%. That means India got less than half of its average rainfall yesterday. That takes the total seasonal rainfall to 619mm vs normal of 655mm which is 94% of LPA. 94% is the new all time low in this season and that is the most alarming news. South India now stands at 87% of LPA, Central India at 91%, North western India at 97% and Eastern India is at 101% of LPA.
Parts of Hyderabad got some rain last night and the city as a whole got an average rainfall of 2.3mm vs normal of 5.2mm which is a deficit of -56%.

Following is the rainfall in different observatories in the city

1. Golkonda 4.6mm
2. Hakimpet 0.8mm
3. Begumpet 0mm
4. Saroornagar 0mm
5. Hayatnagar 0mm
6. Shamirpet 0mm
Except Khammam and Hyderabad districts all the other districts got a huge deficit rainfall. Adilabad and Medak districts were totally dry. Telangana on an average got 2.9mm vs normal of 7.4mm rain which is a deficit of -61%. That takes the total seasonal rain to 477mm vs normal of 544mm which is still a deficit of -12%.

Following is the variations in different districts of Telangana.

1. Khammam +8%
2. Warangal +5%
3. Hyderabad -3%
4. Nalgonda -11%
5. Medak -13%
6. Karimnagar -18%
7. Nizamabad -20%
8. Rangareddy -20%
9. Mahbubnagar -23%
10. Adilabad -27%