Road to 10,000
Nifty is the topic for today!
Nifty for all those who don’t know is the Index which is the representative of top 50 companies traded on National Stock Exchange of India. Nifty50 today closed at 9786.05 which is the all-time high close. This year has so far been amazing for Indian stock markets and it has seen increase of 19.55% since January 1st to till date. Everyone is rooting for the next big thing and that is Nifty reaching 10,000. It’s just matter of time and we will see the five-digit figure very soon.
History is to be created very early but before it arrives let us understand the history behind this historic moment. This article I will talk about the stocks that have moved Nifty all this while and when it has happened. I have divided the Nifty rally which started in November into three phases.
Phase 1 – Nifty (15th November to 30th January)
|15th Nov||30th Jan||% Growth|
|Phase – I (Top gainers)||Phase – I (Top losers)|
|Sl. No||Stock||15th Nov||30th Jan||Growth||Sl. No||Stock||15th Nov||30th Jan||Growth|
|3||Maruti Suzuki||4846||5894||17.78||3||Axis bank||479||471||-1.70|
|4||Yes bank||1157||1389||16.70||4||Kotak Mahindra||789||775||-1.81|
|5||Tata Steel||393||462||14.94||5||Bank of Baroda||174||167||-4.19|
|7||Tata Motors||457||532||14.10||7||State bank of India||278||263||-5.70|
|8||Tata Power||69||80||13.75||8||Sun Pharma||682||644||-5.90|
- Stocks like Indian Oil, Vedanta and Maruti are the top stocks which have zoomed market up in very quick time.
- This first phase was for only 2 and half months with uptrend of 8.33% and out of 50 stocks it is the 28 stocks which have seen more than 8.33% returns whereas only 8 stocks have given negative returns.
- Pick of the first phase will be IOC, Vedanta and TATA Sons who have made major contribution and then of course the Auto mobile companies like Maruti, Tata Motors and Eicher.
Phase 2 – Nifty (30th January to 16th May)
|Phase – II (Top gainers)||Phase – II (Top losers)|
|Sl. No||Stock||30th Jan||16th May||Growth||Sl. No||Stock||30th Jan||16th May||Growth|
|1||India bulls Housing Finance||766||1053||27.26||1||Cipla||582||565||-3.01|
|4||Ultra tech cement||3693||4485||17.66||4||Vedanta||260||238||-9.24|
|8||Maruti Suzuki||5894||6953||15.23||8||Aurobindo pharma||695||614||-13.19|
|9||Adani ports & SEZ||302||356||15.17||9||Coal India||314||275||-14.18|
|10||Asian paints||970||1142||15.06||10||Tata Motors||532||437||-21.74|
- Phase 2 was a longer phase then the phase 1 which lasted for about 4 months.
- Stocks that did good lost the charm and lost the gains that were made in Phase 1.
- New stocks like India Bulls, Reliance, Kotak which were part of top 30 made it to top 3.
- Tata motors which was 7th fell to bottom which was compensated by HDFC bank which was 37th in list and moved up to 5th in the list.
- Like this every stock that lost its value was compensated by other stock from different industry.
- Of the 50 stocks 24 stocks gave returns above market returns of 9.10%.
Phase 3 – Nifty (16th May to 7th July)
|Phase – III (Top gainers)||Phase – III (Top losers)|
|Sl. No||Stock||16th May||7th July||Growth||Sl. No||Stock||16th May||7th July||Growth|
|3||Eicher||24514||27852||11.98||3||Ultra tech cement||4485||4019||-11.59|
|8||Bharti Infratel||376||404||6.93||8||Tech Mahindra||443||380||-16.58|
|9||HDFC bank||1559||1667||6.48||9||Sun Pharma||652||549||-18.76|
|10||Indus Ind bank||1436||1526||5.90||10||Bank of Baroda||193||160||-20.63|
- Phase 3 which is the current phase and which is still running is the one phase which is stuck from a long time.
- Phase 3 is stagnant and has seen only 1.27% growth in 50 days which is aggregable as the market was trading at an all-time high.
- That means Nifty added 111 points in 50 days at an average of 2 points per day
- Interesting is the see-saw game played by stocks as the stocks that underperformed started to perform well in the third phase.
- Tata Steel, Aurobindo and Vedanta are the best examples which have seen long way after seeing lows in the second phase.
After Spending more than 50 days not moving anywhere Nifty suddenly shot up like a rocket and covered 170 points in just 3 trading days that is almost double of what it had seen in 50 days. Now, this momentum should take nifty past 10000 even to a mark of 10500 in the next few weeks. The top ten stocks of the third phase should trigger this move and there are some stocks like Maruti, HDFC Bank and IndusInd Bank which will act as trump cards.
So be prepared for five-digit nifty sooner than expected.
Happy Investing…. Stay Invested!