Road to 10,000

Nifty is the topic for today!

Nifty for all those who don’t know is the Index which is the representative of top 50 companies traded on National Stock Exchange of India. Nifty50 today closed at 9786.05 which is the all-time high close. This year has so far been amazing for Indian stock markets and it has seen increase of 19.55% since January 1st to till date. Everyone is rooting for the next big thing and that is Nifty reaching 10,000. It’s just matter of time and we will see the five-digit figure very soon.

History is to be created very early but before it arrives let us understand the history behind this historic moment. This article I will talk about the stocks that have moved Nifty all this while and when it has happened. I have divided the Nifty rally which started in November into three phases.

Phase 1 – Nifty (15th November to 30th January)

15th Nov 30th Jan % Growth
7926 8646 8.33

 

Phase – I (Top gainers)   Phase – I (Top losers)
Sl. No Stock 15th Nov 30th Jan Growth   Sl. No Stock 15th Nov 30th Jan Growth
1 IOC 285 377 24.40 1 ICICI bank 245 246 0.41
2 Vedanta 209 260 19.62 2 Coal India 313 314 0.32
3 Maruti Suzuki 4846 5894 17.78 3 Axis bank 479 471 -1.70
4 Yes bank 1157 1389 16.70 4 Kotak Mahindra 789 775 -1.81
5 Tata Steel 393 462 14.94 5 Bank of Baroda 174 167 -4.19
6 NTPC 150 175 14.29 6 Aurobindo pharma 733 695 -5.47
7 Tata Motors 457 532 14.10 7 State bank of India 278 263 -5.70
8 Tata Power 69 80 13.75 8 Sun Pharma 682 644 -5.90
9 Eicher 20281 23234 12.71 9 Dr. Reddys 3310 3017 -9.71
10 Hindalco 167 191 12.57 10 Bharti Infratel 364 328 -10.98
  • Stocks like Indian Oil, Vedanta and Maruti are the top stocks which have zoomed market up in very quick time.
  • This first phase was for only 2 and half months with uptrend of 8.33% and out of 50 stocks it is the 28 stocks which have seen more than 8.33% returns whereas only 8 stocks have given negative returns.
  • Pick of the first phase will be IOC, Vedanta and TATA Sons who have made major contribution and then of course the Auto mobile companies like Maruti, Tata Motors and Eicher.

Phase 2 – Nifty (30th January to 16th May)

30th Jan

16th May

% Growth

8646

9512

9.10

 

Phase – II (Top gainers)   Phase – II (Top losers)
Sl. No Stock 30th Jan 16th May Growth   Sl. No Stock 30th Jan 16th May Growth
1 India bulls Housing Finance 766 1053 27.26 1 Cipla 582 565 -3.01
2 Reliance 1044 1356 23.01 2 Tech Mahindra 471 443 -6.32
3 Kotak Mahindra 775 959 19.19 3 ONGC 201 185 -8.65
4 Ultra tech cement 3693 4485 17.66 4 Vedanta 260 238 -9.24
5 HDFC Bank 1284 1559 17.64 5 NTPC 175 159 -10.06
6 L&T 1442 1740 17.13 6 Dr. Reddys 3017 2724 -10.76
7 IOC 377 446 15.47 7 Lupin 1449 1292 -12.15
8 Maruti Suzuki 5894 6953 15.23 8 Aurobindo pharma 695 614 -13.19
9 Adani ports & SEZ 302 356 15.17 9 Coal India 314 275 -14.18
10 Asian paints 970 1142 15.06 10 Tata Motors 532 437 -21.74
  • Phase 2 was a longer phase then the phase 1 which lasted for about 4 months.
  • Stocks that did good lost the charm and lost the gains that were made in Phase 1.
  • New stocks like India Bulls, Reliance, Kotak which were part of top 30 made it to top 3.
  • Tata motors which was 7th fell to bottom which was compensated by HDFC bank which was 37th in list and moved up to 5th in the list.
  • Like this every stock that lost its value was compensated by other stock from different industry.
  • Of the 50 stocks 24 stocks gave returns above market returns of 9.10%.

Phase 3 – Nifty (16th May to 7th July)

16th May

7th July

% Growth

9512

9633

1.27

 

Phase – III (Top gainers)   Phase – III (Top losers)
Sl. No Stock 16th May 7th July Growth   Sl. No Stock 16th May 7th July Growth
1 Tata Steel 456 553 17.54 1 BPCL 733 663 -10.56
2 ITC 283 334 15.27 2 Bajaj Auto 2999 2708 -10.75
3 Eicher 24514 27852 11.98 3 Ultra tech cement 4485 4019 -11.59
4 Aurobindo pharma 614 697 11.91 4 IOC 446 386 -15.54
5 HUL 983 1097 10.39 5 GAIL 414 358 -15.64
6 Reliance 1356 1491 9.05 6 Lupin 1292 1117 -15.67
7 Vedanta 238 257 7.39 7 ONGC 185 159 -16.35
8 Bharti Infratel 376 404 6.93 8 Tech Mahindra 443 380 -16.58
9 HDFC bank 1559 1667 6.48 9 Sun Pharma 652 549 -18.76
10 Indus Ind bank 1436 1526 5.90 10 Bank of Baroda 193 160 -20.63
  • Phase 3 which is the current phase and which is still running is the one phase which is stuck from a long time.
  • Phase 3 is stagnant and has seen only 1.27% growth in 50 days which is aggregable as the market was trading at an all-time high.
  • That means Nifty added 111 points in 50 days at an average of 2 points per day
  • Interesting is the see-saw game played by stocks as the stocks that underperformed started to perform well in the third phase.
  • Tata Steel, Aurobindo and Vedanta are the best examples which have seen long way after seeing lows in the second phase.

Conclusion:

After Spending more than 50 days not moving anywhere Nifty suddenly shot up like a rocket and covered 170 points in just 3 trading days that is almost double of what it had seen in 50 days. Now, this momentum should take nifty past 10000 even to a mark of 10500 in the next few weeks. The top ten stocks of the third phase should trigger this move and there are some stocks like Maruti, HDFC Bank and IndusInd Bank which will act as trump cards.

So be prepared for five-digit nifty sooner than expected.

Happy Investing…. Stay Invested!