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Market Trade Setup 8th March #NIFTY

Its a weekend and the cues in the market are looking different for India and the rest of the world. This week it seems that they are operating in two different Universe. Let’s see if there is a convergence next week at least. For today, there is an extreme growth fear and it was reflected by the EU chairman Mario Dragchi who has sounded alarm bells by bringing down the EU growth forecast to 1.1%. There has been a fall in the global markets since then and Dow Jones last night lost 200 points and today morning Asia is also trading in deep red with Hong Kong down 400 points and Japan is down 350 points. All the other Asian markets are also in red. Brent Crude still remains in the range is at 65.8 dollars.

On the domestic front, Rupee has been strengthening in the last few days and surprisingly came below 70 rupees and closed at 69.9950 against dollar. But today’s news will put cold water on the Rupee and again we might go to 70 and even touch 70.50 today and IT sector will be the major beneficiary. On the other hand, the election fever is setting in India with Congress releasing its list of 15 candidates that includes Sonia and Rahul Gandhi contesting from Rae Bareli and Amethi. In stock specific news, Tata Motors will be in trouble today as Jaguar and Land Rover sales again saw a drop and this is the lowest sales since August 2018. China saw 47.5% drop in sales and that is a big cause of worry also indicates how much demand is falling in China. 

On the derivatives front, yesterday I was making two points about India Vix touching its 200 dma and taking support there and Nifty put-call ratio touching overheated mark of 1.80. Though Vix still remains there, Nifty put-call ratio however recovered to 1.66 and that was the main reason why Nifty was stuck for most part of the day yesterday. There was a lot of buying in the futures market and the overall long positions stand at 53% now. Yesterday’s weekly expiry saw another record turnover of 17.03 lakh Crore, beating the 17 lakh crore of February 28th. Yesterday also saw a major shift in this monthly March series expiry. 11000 put now has the maximum open interest at 33.8 lakh positions while 11500 call is now having maximum open interest of 22.4 lakh positions. That means in this month Nifty can go upto 11510 mark and can take support at 10930 mark. So, this changes how Nifty will be played for rest of the series.

What is the Nifty call for the day?

Last two days were extremely flat for Nifty giving us no chance for long trading. Today, a negative Asia means we would open around 11020-11040 levels and there is huge support coming at 10980-11000 mark. Still the Feb 6th close of 11068 and the intraday high of 11110 continues to be the challenges that Nifty has to overcome. Nifty is trying that for 2 days. So, a mild fall can give it the strength to break that. So, the view for the day is, if Nifty finds support at 11000-11030 mark, I would suggest going long with 50-60 points target either today or can be taken to next week. If Nifty falls below 10980 then don’t take any positions as its a weekend and there could be some more selling

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