Markets and News
Last day of the month, coinciding with the last day of the series!!! How many times it happens this way? Another point to note is after 2 series going to bulls and 2 series to bears, this series is considered to be the tie breaker but this series itself is going towards a tie breaker. This series started at 10618 and now the market is at 10614 that means its just 4 points down. So, nobody can say at the end of the day, will bulls take this series or the bears. This series also was volatile with the highest going to 10929 on Karnataka results day and quickly slipping to 10418. So, we had a range of 500 points but its closing the series absolutely flat. That is why on the starting day of this series I suggest a long straddle and that should have given some profits to you.
Coming to the World markets the Dow jones closed 300 points up as the fears of Italy and temporarily put back and that has cheered up Asia as well. The Brent crude however climbed again to 77 dollars per barrel and that means the chances of a fuel cut is also receding. Oil companies are not in a mood to allow the rates to fall as in the last 15-18 months they suffered huge losses on the back of US shale gas and low demand for the crude. Many economies like Iran, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela had to bear the brunt of lower crude prices. So, expect the crude prices to remain steady around that 75-80 dollar mark for the time being.
Domestic Cues
On the domestic front, Q4 results have ended and today is the day for the Q4 GDP and FY’18 annual GDP and GVA growth rates to come out. The expectations are positive everyone is expecting a 7.4% GDP growth and if you ask me I would say that it could be higher than 7.5% and as high as 7.8%. After 5.7% in Q1, 6.5% in Q2, 7.2% in Q3 we are averaging 6.4% and if we get a 7.5% also we can touch 6.7-6.75% growth which will be just 0.4% less than 2016-17 fiscal growth of 7.1%. CSO and RBI are predicting a growth rate of 6.6% and the numbers will be out by 5.30PM today after the markets close. In other news, ICICI bank will be in some risk as there is an internal enquiry ordered to investigate the quid pro quo charges levied against the Chairman and CEO, Chanda Kochchar. It might have some impact on ICICI as well as bank nifty.
Derivatives Action
Derivatives are important today as the expiry day is all about playing with options. The rollovers to June are at 42% as on yesterday evening and we need to see how markets pan out today. The put call ratio is stuck and it is 1.39 at the end of the day vs 1.40 seen at the beginning of the day. There are equal number of positions created and unwound at the put and call side. 10500 put added 7.9 lakh contracts and that means 10500 will be the firm floor for this series and on call side 10600 call has 6.6 lakh contracts and at 30 rupees premium 10630 might be the temporary roof but 10650 call also hs 4 lakh contracts at 12 rupees premium meaning, if Nifty approaches 10650 then it can go upto 10660 mark.
What is the Nifty and bank Nifty call for the day?
You have two positions open in Nifty already. The naked short put will give you the premium and the short straddle also might work out in your favour today. Because of the slightly positive Asia, Nifty might open around 10650 and there it might get some resistance. so, we need to see what happens there. So, wait for my tweet during the day for taking further positions and avoid bank nifty as there is a lot of fundamental confusion in ICICI bank.