Start of the new series today and this is a series that will be counted as one of te longest series. It is also coupled with one of the longest lunar eclipse to be witnessed is also happening tonight. The global news to start with is not that great. Facebook lost 100 billion dollars on a single day in the market cap with Facebook was down 19%. It is a worst fall for any listed company. To tell you how big is that 100 billion dollars there are only two listed companies in India, TCS and Reliance that has 100 billion dollars. Imagine one of these two companies becoming zero on a single day! That is what has happened to Facebook!!!
All is not that bad, as Amazon comes up with a fantastic result after Google and that has pushed up the index and Dow ended on a slightly positive note up nearly 70 plus point. NASDAQ however suffered a 1% loss mainly on the Facebook debacle. Asia is also not going great guns as Shanghai and Hongkong continue to fall on the back of weaker Yuan. The dollar index has crossed 94.6 level and that is putting pressure on many currencies. Brent Crude is also above 74.50 dollars and that also is not a great news.
Coming to the domestics we have some great news to start with. The best news has come from ITC which has come up with a fantastic Q1 number. The Cigarette volumes which everyone thought will be in negative has surprised everyone and has come at a positive 2%. That shows there are lot of people still smoking. The FMCG was another big surprise with 14% volume growth compared to 10% of HUL. Bharti Airtel also came up with a consolidated profit of 96 Cr as everyone was expecting losses. It was mainly on its African revenues. Today is also an important day for Q1.
Following are the Q1 results expected.
1. Bank of Baroda
2. Heritage foods
3. HCL Tech
4. ICICI bank
5. JSW energy
6. Jubiliant food works
7. Reliance Industries
8. Shoppers stop
All about August series
Today is the start of the August series and historically August has not been a great series. Last 3 August series have ended in red, especially the 2015 August that saw nearly 500 points down. But this August is starting on a different note. So, we need to see what happens. The rollovers are at a record 74% compared to an average 66% and this 74% rollovers is the highest we have seen since May 2017. The net long positions is also higher at 53% and the Nifty put call ratio is starting at a heavy 1.72 and that is a big worry.
What to expect in this August?
If we look at the contours, 11000 put has a maximum open interest and 11500 call has the maximum open interest in put and call side. 10800 and 10600 puts also have substantial open interests and after 11000, 10500 put has the 2nd highest open interest. That means there are people who do believe that 10500 level is possible if there is a sharp fall. This is confirmed with 11000 call having 2nd highest open interest at 11000 after 11500. So, if there is a bit of a fall 11000 will be easily taken out. On the positive side, we can see 11500 happening in this series and the worst that can happen is 10500. On the middle scale, 10750-11310 is a range in which Nifty can spend some time.
What is the Nifty call for the day?
The first day of the series historically has always been positive and today we are likely to open on positive note and it could be at another all time high and 11200 is a possibility today. We might encounter some resistance around 11230 levels and we might test 11150 and 11120 if there is a fall. So, its a 50-50 scenario for bulls and bears today. So, either stay out or wait for my call during the day to take a long position or short position intraday.