Market Trade Setup 24th August #Nifty

Last day of the week and things are not as bright as how things were at the beginning of the week. This is a 5 week long series and with today we will complete 4 weeks. US is under pressure with trade tariffs and the Trump election problems. China has imposed 25% duty on Oil imports from US and that will affect to an extent. Trump is also in the dock for his Russian connection in the 2016 election. All this has put pressure on Dow Jones and it lost another 80 points. Asia however is much more negative to this news and almost all the markets are in red. Hong Kong is almost 200 points down as of now. 

Coming to domestics, things externally are not looking that good. There was a dollar strengthening that happened in the later half of the day yesterday that took Rupee back to 70 and it closed at 70.11. Coupled with that is the rising Brent Crude price which is almost at 75 dollars now. A depreciating rupee with rising Crude is a deadly combination for the market. In domestics are things are not great as some of the important judgements on NCLT are expected anytime. Plus some movements are happening in the op management of banks. Shika Sharma of Axis bank is almost out and it is rumoured that much talented Amitabh Choudhury of HDFC Life is tipped to take over from her. That is creating uncertainty in both Axis and HDFC. 


Confusion is high in the derivatives market also with Nifty futures remaining on 50-50 side. Morning there was a selling and post noon there was buying and the overall long positions in Futures has remained at 51%. But the only positive taken from Futures is after 7 days of net selling, FIIs yesterday turned net buyers in Futures. The story in the options market is bit different as the demand for puts continued to rise over calls. The Nifty put call ratio went back to 1.73 at the end of the day from 1.70 seen at the start.


11500 put added 3.6 lakh contracts and the news is 11500 put has now overtaken 11400 put in accumulated open interest. 11500 put now has 45.8 lakh contracts compared to 41.9 lakh of 11400 put. 11400 put saw 1.5 lakh positions unwinding. 11600 put saw 5.6 lakh positions and picking up in open interest. On the call side 11600 call saw 1.1 lakh positions. Now the floor of the market seems to have shifted to 11470 from 11380 while the roof remains intact at 11660 levels. Today’s put positions are crucial and that can define this expiry.

What is the Nifty call for the day?

A negative Asia means we will open bit gap down below 11550 levels and first support will come in 11520 and 11470 is a major support that should be held. So, any dip below 11550 to 11520 should be used to sell a naked put and am expecting the premium to be around 60 rupees. That will give you support till 11470 levels and you should be safe

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