Yesterday I was talking about Nifty closing above 11700 to give an indication that 11760 will be broken and we will go up. But the usual resistance zone of 11680-11700 was difficult to cross and it closed within the range. Better than close at the resistance than to fall and test the support. In that way, its a very positive move from Nifty, but I think we still have to wait for another day to see whether the resistance will be broken or not. Last night Dow closed in a flat to negative territory losing around 30 points and today morning Asian markets also flat with Hong Kong and Japan up within the 20 to 50 point range. Good news is Brent crude fell below 71 dollar mark trading at 70.7 dollars and the Rupee is at 69.42 to the dollar.
On the domestic front, the news of near normal monsoon came at 3.15PM yesterday and markets were least bothered. Actually, IMD needs to do some hard work and needs to come up with accurate forecasts. Last 4 years IMD got it wrong and this year IMD says that there is a 39% probability of normal monsoon while there is a 32% probability of below normal monsoon and 17% probability of drought. When you don’t have even a 40% chance of normal monsoon how can you say that it’s going to be normal and how do you think the market will believe it? This IMD forecast was thrown into junk and the market showed no reaction. The other news is good to trade data coming for March. The Trade deficit narrowed to 10.89 billion in March 2019 compared to 13.51 billion in March 2018. The best news is an 11% rise in exports to 32.5 billion while imports have gone up by only 1.44% to 43.44 billion.
On the derivative front, the only significant point we need to look at in the Futures market is the drop in the Nifty premium from 60 points to 37 points and that is almost 40% fall in premium and that was due to unwinding of long positions as Nifty touched 11700 mark and that brought the overall long positions in the futures market to 62%. In the options market however there was more demand for puts as 4 puts were sold for every call sold and 2 calls were bought for every put bought. That took the Nifty put-call ratio to 1.61 from 1.55 mark. 11650 put added maximum positions of 6.2 lakh while 11700 put added 5.5 lakh positions. 11600 put followed by 11500 puts has the highest open interest for this week’s expiry. On the call side, 4.2 lakh positions added at 11800 call and 2.7 lakh positions got added at 11700 call and 11700 call still has highest open interest but 11800 is close behind. Any up move today will add huge positions to 11800 call making it the new resistance point.
What is the Nifty call for the day?
Today Asia is flat but we are likely to open a bit positive. Point to be noted is, even though the cues were negative yesterday domestically, we did not see Nifty slipping below 11620-11650 mark and closed very close to 11700 mark. That means the election factor and BJP victory is still keeping the markets higher, fighting any negative cues. Today we have the trade data which came positive and that means we will open slightly positive between 11710-11740 zone and that brings us very close to 11761 which is the all-time high. Are we going to hit another all-time high before triggering a selloff or are we going to close above 11760?
Don’t look at losing these 60-70 point chance of making profits but watch carefully and hope that Nifty closes above 11760. Today is also the last day of campaigning for the 2nd phase polling and close above 11750 means market is still sticking to its election fundamental. So, no trade day today, just observe. Tomorrow is a holiday, we can come back on Thursday and look at how things shape.