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Market Trade Setup 15th March #NIFTY

Market Setup 15th March

The Weekend is here and from Monday we will enter into the second half of the March series. Yesterday went exactly as predicted in the range of 10340-10370 at 10343. After a flat series we are now looking at a shorter expiry week of just 4 days. Yes, this week’s expiry will be on Wednesday 20th March as 21st is Holi. This is the first ever 4-day week series of Nifty and we need to see how it progresses. On the global front however, things look stable as Dow closed absolutely flat yesterday and today morning all the Asian markets are trading in deep green. China is up almost 1%, Hong Kong and Japan are up 200 points each. 

Coming to domestics, India has gone into the election mode as campaigning is picking up and blame game is going on in a big way. As of now the market is predicting a win for BJP and that is keeping it in the green territory. Rupee was the star of yesterday as it staged a big recovery to close at 69.35. Now we are seeing the real possibility of Rupee going below 69 and that means even currency markets are anticipating a Modi win. The only other worry is the 10-year bond yield which still continues to be at 7.36% for a bond issued at 7.26%. Brent Crude also corrected a bit and now trading at 67.2 dollars.

On the derivatives front, one thing we need to observe is although Nifty remained absolutely flat yesterday, Nifty futures premium went up from 24 points at the beginning of the day to 38 points at the end of the day and the overall long positions went up from 59% to 60% which is the highest this year. Two days ago I had made an observation that this series the turnover on expiry day could touch 20 lakh crore and Nifty almost came closer to that. Nifty’s 14th March weekly expiry turnover was at 19.97 Crore and 18.85 lakh Crore came from the Index options itself and the total volume was at 3.19 lakh and the put call ratio corrected to 1.72 from 1.81.

What to expect from 20th March weekly series?

This series is starting with 11300 put having the highest open interest of 7 lakh positions followed by 11200 put at 6.5 lakh positions. So, Nifty can find its first strong support at 11260 and if that is broken then we will go to 11180 this series. Don’t expect Nifty to go below that unless there is a big fundamental. On the call side, 11400 call has the highest open interest at 8.6 lakh positions followed by 11500 call at 6 lakh positions. So, a strong resistance will come at 11440-11460 levels on the upside and if that is taken out then we might touch 11500-11520 zone this series itself. So, let’s see how it plays out.

What is the Nifty call for the day?

We had a very flat day yesterday and you didn’t have any opportunity to trade. Today also we will start flat to positive between 10340-10370 range and today can be a down day as the series markers indicate more downside. It is indicating downside because we are closer to resistance and there could be some selling if Nifty goes to 10380-10400 zone in the morning. There could be some profit taking also at this stage. So, a correction to 10280-10300 is a possibility. So, I suggest you to avoid trading today and since it’s a weekend to the risk is a bit high. So, stay out for today and see where Nifty goes.

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