Markets and News
When I was talking about 10650 as a support yesterday, many of you might have wondered how it can lose 90-100 points from 10750 levels. Markets are never linear and when you take long positions, it could be a swing trade or a weekly or a monthly trade that works with its ups and downs. Intraday trade is not possible every day and intraday calls are usually given after markets open as we need to understand the dynamics of them and it is possible only after market opens. Today is one such day where US markets lost some gains with Dow closing 150 points down. The reason is the US fed which left the rates unchanged and said that there is a upward risk to inflation and US non food, non-fuel inflation is likely to go above 2%.
Domestic Cues
On the domestics, dollar index which crossed 92.5 will be a worry as any further move could put pressure on rupee and it might touch 67 which is something we have not seen for some time. Crude oil is at again at 74 and the Q4 numbers started to disappoint. n fundamentals, GST council is thinking of adding 5% cess on sugar and coming to micros most of the companies that came up with their Q4 results yesterday were either average or bad and now, starting from HCL and ending with Siemens. Now the hope is on today’s Q4 numbers and how they would be.
Here is the list.
1. Adani ports
2. Adani power
3. Castrol India
4. Edelweiss
5. Emami Ltd
6. Hexaware
7. IRB Infra
8. JSW Energy
9. MRF
10. PNB housing
11. Sri Renuka sugars
12. Vedanta
Derivatives Action
On the derivatives front, yesterday saw a lot of action in the futures markets and the futures premium which was around 40 points in the morning halved by afternoon and ended at 26 points. That indicates a lot of selling that happened as Nifty started to break 10750 mark and the Nifty long positions has decreased from 58% from the beginning of the day to 56% at the end of the day.
The options market also remained more or less flat with respect to puts and calls and we saw equal numbers coming from both sides keeping PCR to 1.52. 11000 call still has the highest accumulated open interest of 60.3 lakh shares while 10500 put has 45.7 lakh accumulated open interest indicating that this series its the move between 10550 and 11050 mark. Yesterday for the first time 11000 call added the highest open interest of 3.5 lakh contracts and 10500 put added maximum open interest of 8.1 lakh contracts. So, this expiry is definitely between these two markers.
What is the Nifty and bank nifty call for the day?
A negative Asia triggered by negative US means we will open a bit gap down probably around 10700 levels and what happens from there needs to be seen. 10650 is the temporary support and a close above 10700 means the uptrend is intact and if by any chance Nifty breaks 10650 and goes below then it could trigger panic.
The more important story is bank nifty, which has its weekly expiry today and it is the time we usually look at the positions in the options. There is put shorting that can be done today and even call shorting is also possible. 25600 short straddle is something that you can take and wait for my tweet to take it.