Markets and News
‘Green’ continuing as we proceed into the 3rd day of the March series. Last night Dow closed almost a 400 point in green and Dow is well on its way to conquer 26000 once again. The bond yields seems to have stabilized around 2.85% and now everyone’s eyes are on Powell’s statement on the Fed policy and that statement is likely to come later tonight. The crude prices meanwhile silently crossed 67 dollars and now we are once again facing the danger of 70 dollar crude. That is the only piece of bad news as of now. Asian markets are also going green and looks like this will rub off on Indian markets too.
On domestic front, everyone seems to be waiting for the Q3 GDP numbers to come tomorrow and other than that there are no major fundamentals waiting. So its the technicals that will move the market today. Nifty is at 10590 and today it is likely to open around 10620 and that is where it will encounter the 20 and 50 day moving averages. Both 20 and 50dma are at 10620 so the 10620-10650 will become a great resistance zone. In other news PNB problem is still on and they have reported that there was another unauthorised transaction of worth 200 million dollars and it will have some impact on Bank Nifty in otherwise a day that will see the interesting battle for the Nifty protecting 20 and 50dma. The bond rates seems to have come down below 7.7% and now are at 7.68%.
On the derivatives front there has been a heavy buying that happened due to continuing movement of Nifty on upside. That brings the longs from 47% to 51% and so on the 3rd day of March series we have moved into majority longs on Nifty futures. On the options front, there has been short positions that were created in 10400 put now and yesterday it was 10300 position which had maximum open interest. Now 10400 put is becoming more active than 10300. On the call side maximum unwinding is happening at 10500 call which has become unprofitable for call sellers. Now hey are moving far away and are taking refuge by shorting 10800 and 10900 calls which will give them some premium to eat. That kept the Nifty put call ratio at 1.43 vs 1.41.
What is the Nifty and bank nifty call for the day?
The Asian markets and the SGX suggests that we might open at the 20 and 50dma values of 10610-10620 levels and what happens from there needs to be seen. If Nifty is able to negotiate this level and stay above 10620 and move towards 10650 levels then we can think of taking a position. Otherwise the risk reward doesn’t allow you to take any position as of now. Compulsive trading is not a good habit and so when the market is at a position where it cannot give any profit, its not wise to take any position. So today could be the day where you would want to wait and watch.
On the Bank Nifty front the 50dma of bank nifty is at 25900 and that will be the big resistance for it. The bank nifty is also like Nifty not in a positive zone and it is better to wait and watch to see if PNB has any impact on it and how Bank Nifty will deal with the 50dma needs to be seen. So wait and watch.