Markets and News!

Penultimate day of expiry and things look slightly down but not a big reason for worry. There are two fundamentals that worry us today.
1. GST collections for November comes at 80,000 crore compared to 83,000 in October 88,000 in September. The continuing fall in tax collections is a cause of worry especially for banking and NBFCs.
2. The blast near Libya has stopped the movement of crude temporarily and that has pushed the crude prices close to 67 dollars and that is a big worry. We need to see how markets react to this as its not clear how much impact it caused.

Futures and Options!

On derivatives front things look even on call and put side with NIFTY put call ratio remaining steady at 1.59 throughout the day. The action seems to have moved to 10550 and 10500 puts. Traders are seeing nifty moving up steadily so they are shorting even 10550 put. It is at 40 rupees premium and it means 10500 plus expiry is on cards. 10500 put is at 20 rupees and that also saw shorting. On the call side there was some call buying that happened at 10500 call but 10600 call saw lots of shorting. All this kept the put call ratio unchanged.

What is the NIFTY strategy for the day?

NIFTY is likely to open flat around 10520 levels and the GST worries might take it quickly to 10500 and subsequently to 10480. It is a strong support and if it holds then the movement could be between 10480 to 10520. 10550 is a strong resistance. Keeping your positions and waiting for expiry is the only option now. But risky traders might look at a small point profit by going long at 10480 with 10520 to 10550 as the target for tomorrow’s expiry.