Markets and News
Start of the March series and its the earliest start for any series in a month. This series will be long and will have 5 weeks. This series will also be the last series of this financial year and things are changing rapid and fast. US markets are settling down but there is a high degree of volatility. Dow ended 120 points up while NASDAQ and S&P500 closed in marginal red. US bonds have reached a new high of 2.93% and Brent crude is now 66 dollars again. All these present a mixed picture and Asia is trading positive adding some positivity to start with at least.
On the domestics, there are no real fundamentals that can affect us. The PNB has become a old news and it might have a limited impact on the March series. The only worry is the Rupee crossing 65 dollars and that coupled with rising brent crude might put pressure on crude oil imports. Added to that is the bond yields which are continuously on the rise and have touched 7.75% yesterday and today it might flirt with 7.8% and that might put some pressure on equities. Now Nirav Modi and Mehul Chowksi have refused to appear ED and have said they will appear as and when they come to India and their coming to India is as doubtful as Mallya coming to India. so, things might slow down on this front.
On the derivatives front, March series starts with Nifty put call ratio at 1.41. This is very healthy and gives scope for both call and put writers. Nifty futures is started on a much lighter note this series compared to previous series. It started with 80% long positions in February while March series is starting with just 49% long. That means there are enough shorts in the system and any fall might lead to short covering and that might keep the market stick to levels. On the options front this series has a very long markers. There are positions getting built at 10800 call and 10100 put indicating that there could be a chance of Nifty touching 10800 and on the down side the 200dma might act as a support. Unless there is a strong fundamental 200dma of Nifty might be respected in this series.
What is the Nifty call for the day?
Today is the start of the series and the first day traditionally will help bulls and market might be trending up in the first few hours. Asia is green and we might open at 10400-10420 levels and Nifty might go to 10450 levels in the morning. It is in the settling down process and Friday volatility might bring Nifty below 10400 levels in the afternoon. So the strategy for today is to go long whenever you get opportunity at 10400-10420 levels with 10500 as the target for the near term. You can take that position either in the morning or in the afternoon or before closing. Do not take this position above 10420. If Nifty stays above 10420 and close to 10450 throughout without giving any chance, then stay away and wait for the dip to come on Monday.
What is the Bank Nifty call for the day?
Bank Nifty will be more vulnerable than Nifty as there is a major impact of fundamentals on it than Nifty. This March series might see Bank Nifty testing 24500 levels and on the upside it might even go to 26500 levels and we need to be very cautious with it. Observe the trend very closely before doing anything. Today it might open at around 25100 and might even try touch 25500 levels if things are positive. Else it might stop at 25200 and might be choppy. so stay out of Bank Nifty for today.