Markets and News
As we are approaching towards the end of another week, we have the Fed hike that is the topic to talk about. Fed has hiked the interest rates by 25 bps from 1.50% to 1.75% and have said that there could be 3 more rate hikes in 2018 not just 2 as predicted by many. The GDP forecast is very strong at 2.7% for 2018 and 2.4% for 2019 and that is something that justifies the rate hike. The tone of the Fed was hawkish and that had its impact on Dow which closed flat to negative but emerging markets seem to have been in positive zone. But the worries are there on Crude oil front with Brent Crude dangerously close to touching 70 dollars again and that is not a great now.
On domestics front things look average for us with no real fundamental ruling us and its all left to technicals to take care. Yesterday the resistance of 10180-10200 was broken to go to 10225 levels only to come back again to 10150 levels. The 200dma is still not crossed decisively and the market has to decide very clearly whether to go up rapidly above and cross 10300 or go to 10000 test it and break it. The worries on Crude will weigh on the market and dollar might strengthen a bit on a weaker dollar and could strengthen to go below 65dollars.
On the derivatives front the Futures market saw both longs and shorts but the short positions slightly overweighed the long positions and the overall longs in the system fell to 42% another new low in 2018. The shorts in the system were up mainly due to the fall in the market around the noon. The options also has seen puts being more in demand than calls and that marginally took the put call ratio to 1.07 from 1.06. The 10200 and 10400 call saw massive unwinding of positions to the tune to 6.8 lakh and 6.6 lakh contracts while the 10000 put is still having a maximum open interest build up of 10.1 lakh contracts. 10100 put also saw shorting from the afternoon onwards.
What is the Nifty and Bank Nifty call for the day?
Today is the bank nifty weekly expiry and I feel Bank Nifty could open around 24300 levels and then try to touch yesterdays highs before correcting. So taking a short position around 24300-24350 levels with 24200 as a target can work and wait for my call during the day for options positions.
On Nifty front, the green Asia means we will open around the resistance level of 10180 and 10220 will be a very strong resistance. You could go for a short position around 10190-10220 range with 10150-10160 as the target. Keep it tight and wait for my tweets for further positions.