New’S’ Year and Markets!
First and foremost, Happy New year 2018! May this year bring lot of prosperity to you all and may every step of yours bring good luck and wealth! Now coming to the markets, today we are the only markets that are trading today! Every market in Asia, Australia, Europe and US are shut and only we are working! That’s the sad part. Imagine with every FII partying hard and sleeping at home, only Indian markets are trading. When will SEBI take a decision to declare holiday on Jan 1st? Will it be 2019or 2020 or never? Will have to wait and watch!
Now that markets are open, lets get back to business. 2017 was one of the best years in the past, where NIFTY gained 29% which is one of the best in this decade. In this century 2009 was the best year with 76% gains but that is after a 56% fall in 2008! So what will we do in 2018? As I had tweeted on Friday will we repeat another 29% thin 2018? If that happens when we will be knocking the doors of 13000 on NIFTY and that is indeed a great achievement.
Lets look at the fundamentals that can affect you this year!
1. The big bang event is on February 1st when the budget 2018-19 fiscal will be delivered. The tone of the budget has the potential to give a 5% rally and it can also bring down 5% if its an unfavourable budget. So with a 10% volatility at stake this is indeed a very big event in Feb and March.
2. The Karnataka election in May 2018. If BJP makes a comeback in Karnataka then the chances of it sweeping 2019 elections will go up and that would mean we will have a big push and might trigger a mid year rally in May and June. If NIFTY is stuck this is the time it will break that and go up. Probably it might free NIFTY from that 11000-11500 jam and take it above.
3. The Diwali rally and the nervousness when 3 important BJP ruled states Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and Rajasthan goes to polls in Nov and Dec. This is the crucial year end period and its a decider whether we go to 12500 or rally above or go back to 12000 and below that if the performance of BJP is going to be bad.
What is the NIFTY strategy for today?
Except Rajinikanth entering politics there is nothing that is news worthy to mention today. So its going to be technicals which will rule the markets. Across the World every market is shut so we will be on our own. NIFTY is likely to open flat at 10530 levels and 10550 could be a barrier. The long position you accumulated last year at 10480 levels, you can close it if NIFTY goes above 10550 levels. It will be a flat day, so book profits on New Year day if NIFTY touches 10550 or else wait for tomorrow and see how markets behave today. Relax and learn some small tricks and tips that markets teach you and today is the best day to do that!