Markets and News
Very confused to day to start with. There is confusion every where, in US, Asia and even in India. The fundamentals in US are not looking fine but the Dow closed in positive zone up around 60 points. Brent Crude touched 80 dollars and came back to 79.3 dollars and Morgan Stanley puts the Brent Crude at 90 dollars and that can never be good for an emerging economy like India. The US bond yields are at 3.1% which is a 7 year high and rupee has stabilized a bit yesterday and closed below 68. Asia is extremely flat and showing no direction.
Domestics!
On domestics, the biggest fundamental is the karnataka election which is still in the news and today Yeddyurappa will be back as CM and that could be seen as positive. But the governor’s actions are under scrutiny and hearing is still going on and that might keep the market nervous though today no such thing might affect it. The big news is the positive Q4 results of Tata steel and that could lift the sentiment a bit.
Following are the Q4 results expected to come today.
1. Adlabs
2. Bajaj Financial service
3. Central bank
4. Coffee day
5. Escorts
6. JK tyres
7. Kirloskar India
8. Taj GVK
9. Voltas
Derivatives Action
On the derivatives front, there was a lot of action on the futures space as the sentiment started to change to sell on rally rather than buy on dips. Every up move led to the creation of short positions and that got reflected on the options market as well where the nifty put call ratio went down to 1.56 because of unwinding on puts happening since 2 days. 10800 put unwound 7.8 lakh positions followed by 10500 put that unwound 5.3 lakh positions. 10900 put also unwound 2.9 lakh positions while 10800 call created 2.6 lakh contracts and 10900 call created 2.4 lakh contracts and 11000 call 2.4 lakh contracts. As of now 10900 call premium at 30 rupees indicates 10930 to be the temporary top with a chance of Nifty going to 11020.
What is the Nifty and bank Nifty call for the day?
Today is the Bank nifty weekly expiry and it is close to 26200 mark. Bank Nifty is very volatile and any move could upset the premiums a lot. I suggest you to stay away from the Bank Nifty for today also but if you feel that intraday trade might help then you can look at buying 26200 call with a tight targets as any delay means premiums will drop.
On the Nifty front, Nifty is likely to open flat around 10750 and I suggest taking a long position of Nifty around 10750-10770 levels with 10820 as the intraday target. Exit positions for whatever profit as taking positions home is very risky as any adverse judgement on Karnataka could upset all the calculations.