Markets and News
A special day for me personally, and things looking brighter than before and looks like second half of April also the uptrend will be intact. Dow Jones closed 200 points higher on the back of good Q1 results of many US companies. Asia also joined today with China coming out with its Q1 GDP coming at a 6.8% which is slightly better than 6.7% that was expected. Also the Industrial output for the month of March comes good at 6.2% and that has pushed up all the Asian markets and India also will benefit from it. Brent Crude however hovers around 72 dollars still and that is always a slight worry.
Domestic Cues
On the domestics, the big news however is the monsoon forecast at 97% of LPA. That means India will get 97% of 887mm of rainfall. The met department has given a 42% probability of monsoon to be in 96-104% zone and 60% probability for it to be in 92-102% range and 30% probability of 90-96% range. Markets are taking the 97% as a positive news as we got 96% in 2016 and 86% in 2015. But these forecasts are unreliable but markets will celebrate it as there is no proper understanding of the phenomenon and their distribution pattern. Already all the monsoon stocks are going up and today you will see them going up more.
Derivatives Action
On the derivatives front, yesterday post noon good show by Nifty has pushed up the long positions and now it stands at 27% which is the highest in this series. April series as you know started with 18% and went to the lowest of 16%. On the options front also the puts are slowly picking up. The 10500 put has the maximum contracts of 7.7 lakhs followed by 10400 put at 4.8 lakh contracts. The 10600 put is also seeing contracts build up of 2.4 lakh. At 110 rupees premium there are traders who are seeing 10500 as the base for this series. On the call side there was a lot unwinding seen at 10300, 10400 and 10500 call as Nifty crossed 10500 and 10700 call now has the maximum build up of 3.6 lakh contracts. The Nifty put call ratio is at 1.66 now compared to 1.63 yesterday.
What is the Nifty and bank nifty call for the day?
Expect a flat start to the Nifty around 10520-10540 range and I suggest you to go long in the morning at any dip or between 10520-10540 levels with 10580-10600 as the target for this week or this series. The nifty is at the top of the range the there is a limited chance of it going up any further. So, keep small targets and exit as soon as you reach them.
Bank Nifty is at 25320 levels now and you can enter bank nifty around 25350-25380 range with 25500 as the target for this series.