Markets and News
The second half of April begins and it begins on a worrying note. The first half was good with Nifty going from 9950 to all the way to 10520 levels which is a 5% growth from the bottom. Now it is starting to fall and where it goes from here needs to be seen. US has issued warning to Russia on Syrian strikes and it is also imposing sanctions on Russia, and all this will not go well. US is seeing good Q1results with Bank of America, JP Morgan and host of other companies coming with good results. But the micros in US might give way to fundamentals which are not at all good. The main problem is the clash of egos between US and Russia with UK and France firmly supporting US.
Domestic Cues
On the domestics, infosys comes out with an above average result with everything looking good except the guidance. Today there are no Q4 results expected today but there are other data that disappointed is the trade deficit data for March which disappointed a lot. The deficit comes at 13.7 billion dollars and that took the annual deficit to 87.2 billion dollars in 2017-18 compared to 47.7 billion dollars in 2016-17. Imports for March rose 7.2% to 42.8 billion while for the whole year it went up 20% to 459.6 billion. The most worrying is the Exports which showed a decline of -0.66% to 29.11 billion. Exports for full year went up just 9.8% to 302.8 billion. This is coupled with Brent Crude which is still at 72 dollar mark. All these doesn’t present a bright picture.
Derivatives Action
On the derivatives front, what happened last week is really immaterial on Futures front as we have a fresh set of cues to look at. On the options front, things are looking interesting and bullish. There are 5 calls bought for every 1 put and there are 3 puts sold for 2 calls sold. That is a bullish trend and that took the Nifty put call ratio to 1.63 and this is now in over heating zone. Another point to observe is the fall in premium at 10700 call even though the Nifty went up on Friday indicating that 10700 is a very favourite strike to short. 10400 call is seeing maximum buying while 10700 call is seeing maximum selling. On the put side 10400 put still continues to be active but there is buying happening at 10200 put indicating that there is a possibility for Nifty to go down.
What is the Nifty and Bank Nifty call for the day?
I was talking about the uncertainties of a weekend in my Friday post and the uncertainties have come alive. The Asia is red and that means we could open gap down today below 10450 and that means we have the 100dma at 10430 and 50dma at 10400 which are the important markers to watch out for. If the Nifty takes support at 100dma and stays around 10430-10450 zone then its a good news but if it cracks and goes to 10400 and below then its a bad news. Either case its better to wait and watch and wait for my tweet to take positions.
Bank Nifty is at 25200 now and today it might open around 25000 levels and that means Bank Nifty is below its 50dma again. 50dma is at 25050 and that might be a resistance. The 200dma is at 24910 and that means bank nifty might be in this range for today. If 200dma is broken then it will be a worrying sign.