Market Setup

Weekend is here, a forgettable week finally coming to an end. This was the week that gave lot of hope but delivered very little. The NIFTY has gone into a range and it looks like as if NIFTY is going to spend rest of the series in that range. Now that would waste the entire September series, if and when that happens. But for today, NIFTY for a change will not play one day up one day down game. It will open flat to positive around 9940 and will encounter that 9950 resistance. Then one more resistance comes at 9980 and if NIFTY negotiates both, then 10,000 is in sight. Having said that 10,000 turned out to be a big deal and will it be achieved on the last day of the week?
Yes, things look positive start will be at the top of the range and if NIFTY finds resilience at 9980 then 10,000 looks possible. Else we would see usual Friday afternoon selling and NIFTY might go back and close again in that 9850-9950 range. After all, nobody wants a weekend risk in the World which is so volatile.


Even the derivative markets are giving confusing signals. NIFTY futures long positions dropped to 61% but the last one hour trade showed NIFTY falling but futures premium shooting up. That means when NIFTY was falling people were going and buying futures. But at the beginning of the day yesterday they sold so much that the last 1 hour buy didn’t matter much. However long positions at the close of the day is always a positive signals. The options market also saw Put Call ratio go to 1.35 from 1.33 indicating that some put shorting is happening at higher levels, especially at 9900. Maybe if that moves to 9950 then we can look at the range getting broken.


On fundamentals front, nothing is happening in Korea but tomorrow is Independence day of North Korea so weekend might see some action. So, the ideal thing would be to close the positions and don’t take much to next week. Hurricane IRMA is making erratic moves just like stock markets. Yesterday everyone thought it will miss Florida but now it looks as if it will hit Florida head on. Now it’s located north of Cuba and moving rapidly towards US coast. At 300-320kmph wind speed it might make a landfall in Florida on Saturday evening US time and Sunday morning India time.
Crude oil prices surged because of this and brent crude crossed 54.50 dollars posing a real threat of 60 dollars in case IRMA leads to large scale destruction!