A green expiry day and the a green US markets and a mixed Asia and start of the October series, that’s how the markets welcome today. But another point is today is Friday and we have a long holiday of 3 days and we will again open on 3rd October. But the domestic macros looks a bit worrisome.
Former Finance minister Yashwant Sinha joined the chorus of people who are criticizing the economic policy of Govt. Though BJP rubbished it aside, it will make at least some people to get up and take note of his remarks.
In other Macro news Govt. has come up with its borrowing schedule for next six months and there is no change either in borrowing targets or in the fiscal deficits. Plus Govt. is optimistic of raising 30,000 Cr from the ONGC-HPCL merger. Plus another point is today will be the last day when companies can remain anonymous with respect to their default. Starting from 3rd October they have to disclose and delay in their monthly interest payments or the delays or delays in defaults.

Here is how it works.

If you delay your interest payment upto 30 days then on 31st day you will get into SMA1 or Special Mention Account 1 and that would be disclosed to public. If you delay your interest payments upto 61 days then on 62nd day you will be in SMA1 or Special Mention Account2. And if you delay interest or Principle amount payment by 90 days then on 91st day you will be called a “Defaulter” and the whole world will know about it. This is going to kick off from 3rd October. That will have a major impact on the stocks which are debt heavy.
The other macros to look forward to this month are the Monetary policy coming out on 4th October and the series of Q2 results which start coming from 9th October and the macro economic data in the form of IIP and CPI around 11th October. Plus the big Diwali coming in mid october that can change the direction of the market. So a heavy month to look forward to!

What is the market set up for today?

NIFTY will open relatively flat around 9780 levels and then 9830 on the upside is the immediate resistance. On the downside 9750 will offer as huge support. Today is the beginning of the series so don’t hurry up and take positions. Wait for Tuesday and see which way the market goes.
This is how the F&O markets are set up at the beginning of October series.
1. NIFTY futures: FII exposure is 56% long and 44% short which is the lowest in terms of long positions since December 2016.
2. Long Calls: FIIs bought 55% Calls till now and have shorted 45% calls.
3. Long puts: Long puts are 73% of total puts which is the highest and only 27% puts are short. That is definitely a bearish trend to start with!
So it is going to be a flat day where NIFTY might try to understand where it is going!