News and Markets!

Friday which is likely to start Red. That’s the message I am going to start with. Crude is now turning out to be a big worry with Brent again touching 64 dollars. Apart from that delay in US tax reforms, arrests of big and mighty in Crude rich Saudi Arabia and some worries that we need to deal with. Domestically Himachal voted and broke all previous records with 74% turnout. A high turnout is bad for the party in power so Congress has to worry a lot. The satta bazar is saying BJP will go as high as 55-58 and congress might be reduced to 8-10 in 68 member house.
But the real bad news is coming from Gujarat where the 2nd round of ABP-CSDS poll says BJP will win but with a reduced majority. In 1st round of poll in August BJP was to win with 59% vote and Congress at 31%. Now BJP dropped from 59 to 47% and Congress is up from 31 to 42%. At 47-42 it’s a close race. In Fact in North Gujarat Congress is ahead of BJP. We still have 1 month to go and BJP has to reverse the trend. SBI is the result coming at the mid day and it could turn the direction of market. If SBI comes with bad numbers that will take markets further down.

On derivatives front, there are 2 interesting points to observe

1. The Nifty futures premium was going up yesterday with market falling. That’s a bullish sign and now the NIFTY futures premium is at 53 rupees. High!
2. 10800 call saw a sudden jump and 51,000 contracts got generated there whereas lot of winding up of calls was seen at 10600 and 10500 levels. This is a confusing sign and indicates that people are buying 10800 at 5 rupees premium expecting a sudden rise in the NIFTY sometime in the series. The NIFTY put call ratio remained flat at 1.35 vs 1.36 seen at the beginning of the day.

What is the NIFTY strategy for the day?

NIFTY will open gap down below 10300 and might test 10250-10280 zone. Crude, SBI result in the mid day will have an impact. Any dip at 10250-10280 should be bought into because this market has the legs to go up. Now keep a bigger stop loss. Keep a 10400 target sometime next week and don’t worry about near term trend. Money making at times gets difficult and one needs to take risks. If the close happens above 10300 it means uptrend is intact.

Q2 results for today

1. Balaji Telefilms
2. BEML
3. BPCL
4. Bosch
5. Dena bank
6. DLF
7. Hindustan copper
8. M&M
9. Nestle
10. Pfizer
11. State bank of India
12. Sobha developers
13. Sun TV
14. Suzlon