This weekly post my focus is on Monsoon which was a concern for India for the last 25 years where India has seen an average monsoon rainfall of -4.82% for 25 years. But things changed unexpectedly this year as the Monsoon saw more than normal rainfall. This year for the months June 1st to Sep 30th the rainfall recorded was at 110%, a 10% excess.
A good monsoon always brings cheers in the Indians as everyone knows the Indian population is highly concentrated on Agri income. With above-normal monsoon coming, the farmer and his family will be the happiest. Expectations for a good rainfall is now a reality, next comes the sowing and a good harvest. Kharif crops have already been sown and the harvest season will begin in the next few days. Of course, harvest will differ from crops to crops. Likewise, profits also differ from crops to crops.
For example: If one sows Paddy (rice) or Dal crops the average time taken to harvest fully grown crop is 3 to 4 months. As per a direct conversation with a farmer, a Tur Dal crop will fetch profits of 4 to 5 lakhs rupees per acre when the crop is near perfect harvest. With 10% above normal rainfall, let’s hope for a good harvest and a happy ending for the farmers.
Yes, this is above normal rainfall. But is it the right rain and a well-spread rain?
Let’s dig a little more into facts of Monsoon 2019!
We have seen rainfall which is well spread. Western parts of the country received the highest rainfalls compared to the eastern and southern regions.
- West Rajasthan – 19%
- Gujarat Region – 29%
- East Rajasthan – 53%
- Kankan & Goa – 53%
- Saurashtra Region – 66%
- Telangana – 8%
- Rayalaseema – 12%
- Coastal Andhra – 9%
- Tamil Nadu – 18%
- Karnataka – 23%
Breakdown of regions
- Excess – 8
- Normal – 19
- Very Excess – 2
- Deficient – 5
Most of the Western part is seen either excess or normal monsoon, whereas the eastern and southern part of India has seen normal rainfall in most of the regions. There have been places where the flooding was severe. Though the rainfall was good, it was not well distributed. For example, Haryana, an agrarian state has received 20% below normal rains. Rains in Eastern UP were good but not in Western UP, which is again a sugarcane belt. But the good news is paddy growing states like Assam, Bengal, Orissa and AP have got good rains so we will have a bumper crop of rice this year.
Some interesting facts about this monsoon:
- 10% of excess rain is the best in the last 25 years. The previous best was in 1994 where India got 12% excess of rain.
- Monsoon has not withdrawn from the country and it is likely to happen only after 10th If that happens it will be the first time in 60 years that monsoon has withdrawn from the country after 10th October.
- The monthly rainfall for September is 52% more than normal making it the wettest September in the last 102 years. Only in 1917, we got 58% excess of rain in September.
- Hyderabad city till 8th October got 22% excess rainfall, which is happening for the first time in 20 years. Total rain in Hyderabad in this monsoon is 834mm vs Normal of 652 mm.
You have enjoyed the best monsoon of the 21st century and let’s hope the crop and Agri GDP of Q2 and Q3 will rise to the new heights.