A day after Nifty fell 225 points, the biggest fall in 2019 and that was the cumulative figure for Monday and Tuesday put together considering that we were off on Monday and yesterday started with 100 points gap down. There was close to 2000 Cr selling by FII and this will go down as one of the biggest selling days in the market. We are now back to levels below 10800 and I was talking about 10750 levels and are we going to touch that level today needs to be seen.
US had a bad day yesterday where it lost 240 points but today we are starting on a positive note with Asian markets with Hong Kong up more than 400 points. Japan is the only market which is flat. A big bother for us however is Rupee value which was on a free fall yesterday and lost one full rupee to stand at 72.4 per dollar. Today we need to see if there is any recovery.
On the domestic front, the biggest fall of 2019 has brought the question whether we are going to the lowest levels of 2019!! 10585 that was the 19th Feb intraday low continues to be the lowest low and the lowest level on closing basis is 10604. So, 10600 in all probability will come as the biggest support. 10637 which is the intraday lowest for August series is another support and 10741 is the lowest closing level of August series which can be another support.
Market is bearish for more than a month now as 200dma of 11100 was broken and now the 20dma which is the series wise support and resistance mark is at 10960 mark and that will be the first resistance on upside. If that level is broken then the 200dma at 11210 mark will be the new resistance. So, its all technicals that are going to rule the market today as there is no fundamental news.
On the derivatives front, there was a heavy selling to the tune of more than 100 cr that came in Futures market and the overall long positions in Nifty futures continue to fall and from 31% they are now at 25%. On the options front also there was a heavy demand for calls as Nifty started to break one level after another and closed below 10800 mark. The Nifty put call ratio is at 1.04 now vs 1.31 seen at the beginning of the day.
11000 put shed 12.1 lakh positions yesterday and that made 10800 put the strike with the highest open interest for tomorrow’s expiry. On the call side 10900 call added 19.8 lakh positions and 11000 call 17.4 lakh positions, followed by 11100 call that added 7 lakh positions and 10800 call 6.5 lakh positions. 11000 call has the highest open interest for tomorrow’s expiry followed by 11100 and 10900 calls.
What is the Nifty call for the day?
We had seen a big fall yesterday and I told you to stay away from the market if 10880 levels dont hold and if you have done so, you would be relatively safer than those who ventured in. Today a green Asian markets means we will open bit positive above the 10800 mark around 10820-10840 levels and what happens after that needs to be seen.
The first level of resistance on the upside comes at 10880-10920 levels and on the downside any break of 10780 mark might take us to 10740 and 10680 levels respectively. This is a scary picture and the trade for the day is to stay away from the market. It is not safe to take a trade till Nifty decisively takes out 10880 levels and we also dont know how much fall is left, so taking short positions also is a big risk. So, the trade for the day is to stay out and see where Nifty closes.