It’s Tuesday and it’s my post day. Very recently the NDA Government has completed its 4th year of ruling and they have just 1 more year left before the Lok Sabha elections 2019 take place. Many surveys and polls have been conducted on to see what can happen in 2019 and look at the party’s performance state wise. Last year around this time I had given the seats that can be won by parties as on that day. Starting from today, for the next one month I will predict the seats that BJP, INC and others will be winning in 2019 elections.
These predictions are not of any survey done by me nor a copy of any survey of any TV channel. This is based on the political situations that exist in those states as on today, the perceptions of people reflected trough various surveys and polls coupled with my analysis. I have divided this into 5 parts. The first 4 parts will focus on four regions of India and in the last part I will give an all India picture.
Today it is the turn of BJP’s less favored region of South India. South India is complicated with every state having its own dynamics and the party which is there in one state is not there in other state. Like TRS which is only there in Telangana, TDP and YSRCP in Andhra Pradesh etc. South India includes states like Telangana (17), Andhra Pradesh (25), Karnataka (28), Kerala (20) and Tamil Nadu (39). Union territories Lakshadweep and Pondicherry with 1 seat each. Total of 132 seats.
- Telangana is the first state am going to predict. It has 17 seats in total and TRS, Congress, BJP, AIMIM and TDP are the parties contending. I give 10 seats to TRS mostly from North Telangana districts, 4 seats for BJP, coming from the City and other Urban places. Congress will have to limit itself with 2 seats from South Telangana.
- Andhra Pradesh another Telugu State which had seen a more than half seats going to coalition of BJP and TDP in 2014. Now with TDP and BJP becoming deadly enemies on the issue of special status, expect a tactical understanding of BJP with YSRCP to teach TDP a lesson. This understanding will exist more on ground and will not reflect as an alliance. This will majorly benefit BJP as YSRCP looks much stronger to capture power in AP. I give 13 out of 25 seats to YSRCP, coming from Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra equally and 4 seats for BJP coming from places like Vizag, Rajahmundry and probably Rajampet. TDP which won 15 seats last time will be reduced to 8.
- Karnataka, state which had elections just few days ago has seen a roller coaster of elections. JDS and Congress now with the coalition have confirmed that they will be participating as one in the Lok Sabha Elections. Will that hit them back or help them is something to be seen. As per my fundamental study I feel that it is going to be a little boost to BJP. Expecting a two seat jump to 19 from 17. Major gains for BJP will come from Mumbai Karnataka where it will win 5 out of 6 seats, Coastal Karnataka where it will sweep all the 3 seats and Central Karnataka where it will win 5 out of 9 seats and also will win few seats in Hyderabad Karnataka and in Bangalore City and Mysore. Cong-JDS combine will be reduced to just 9 seats.
- Kerala is the only place in South India where BJP had no seats for many years. But that changed in the assembly elections of 2016 where it won its first seat and got more than 13% vote share and it is expected to do well in the 2019 elections. This is going to be a big plus for BJP if they manage to get the seats I am predicting. I am seeing victory in 5 seats for BJP compared to nothing in 2014. To add a point, in the year 2014 BJP had 10% vote share which jumped to 13% in 2016. So, at the same pace if the vote share goes to 17-18% then they will be able to win 5 seats. These seats will come from North Kerala region of Kasargod, probably in Thrissur and Thiruvananthapuram in South Kerala.
- Tamil Nadu – the state of confusion. We now have five big parties fighting out in this state. AIADMK, DMK, AIADMK, Rajnikanth’s new party, MNM of Kamal Hassan and the NDA which has parties like DK, DMDK, PMK and BJP. AIADMK with the amount of anti-incumbency is ruled out to win even one seat of the 39 seats. Last time Jayalalitha’s brand had given them 37 seats but now it’s really tough for them. Plus people voted for her as she put herself for the PM position in case if there is a hung parliament. It is going to be new players who will win it big this time. BJP will also make its inroads and win few major seats. Rajinikanth and Kamal Haasan are going to win it big this time. Rajinikanth with all his rural power will take highest number of seats, especially in South Tamilnadu. Rajnikanth will win 19 out of 40 seats mostly in Southern and Rural Tamilnadu, Kamal Hassan’s MNM will win 6 seats from Urban TN, BJP combine will win 7 seats mostly in western TN and Kanyakumari district. DMK is expected to get 7 seats mostly in Chennai city and North Tamilnadu.
Of the three union territories of Andamans, Pondicherry and Lakshadweep BJP will take Andamans and INC will take Pondicherry and Lakshadweep. So, here is the South India tally for this week.
Overall, if we see the tally goes to 132 seats. Out of which BJP is looking set to win 40 seats as compared to 22 seats that they have won in the year 2014. With the support of TDP they had 37. This time even without the support of TDP they are looking to make big gain of 18 seats.
That’s how the overall tally looks with BJP at 40, INC at 22 and others at 70. South India which isn’t favorite region for BJP has made good ground to gain the seats. It all depends on how the parities strategize and win more seats. Other parties will have huge role to play in the South Indian region.
In my next Tuesday post, I will focus on the Eastern states of Orissa, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, West Bengal and North Eastern states. Wait for it!!