General Elections 2019! Mid Year Predictions – Western India Region #LokSabha2019

 

Lok Sabha Elections 2019 Predictions – Western Region

Tuesday and its third consecutive post on the elections 2019 predictions. The contest is getting tighter and tighter and the competition for the Crown isn’t too far. By this time next year, we would be under the rule of ‘Newly Formed’ Government ‘BJP led NDA’ or ‘INC led UPA’. This time the contest is more going towards a two-party fight unlike previous elections. Yes, its not sure how many parties are going to join hands with INC in UPA but NDA is going to face tough task this time as reports suggest. Today it’s the Western Region and I have 132 seats under my prediction scanner from 5 states and 2 union territories. 5 states are Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Goa. Union territories include Daman & Diu and Dadra & Haveli.

1. Maharashtra: Let me start off with the most crucial state for the coming election and that is Maharashtra. It has the Highest number of seats at 48 of which BJP+Shiv Sena together won 42 in 2014. It was a sweep for BJP. This time around expecting that BJP will have coalition with SHS the predictions are made. Unlike last time, I feel that BJP+SHS might not do well and will see a fall in the seats. The damage is majorly because of Madhya Maharashtra going Congress way, thanks to an alliance with NCP. This way BJP is going down to 34 seats and Congress-NCP alliance is gaining 8 seats more to go to 14 seats. It can even get worse for BJP if they fail to keep Shiv Sena with them. If BJP fights alone the tally might comedown from 34 to just 15. We will see many events rolling up in the coming days in Maharashtra!

2. Gujarat: Last time on the back of Modi wave Gujarat was clean swept by BJP by winning all the 26 seats. But this time things have changed, when electorate gives 100% seats for a Party then it has got that power to develop and do well. From the assembly elections which happened very recently that was not to be. BJP struggled but finally won it for one more time. That unhappiness in the minds of people might be an advantage for Congress and they will be able to do the damage that’s going to change the things a bit. Saurashtra was the biggest problem for BJP in assembly elections. But this time its not going to be that easy for Congress to sweep Saurashtra. Personally, I feel INC might not capitalize and BJP will lose seats but not a big downfall. BJP will be able to take 21 seats and Congress will win 5 seats.

3. Rajasthan: Another jackpot state for BJP where they have won all the 25 seats in 2014 elections. Rajasthan is a very critical state. Assembly elections are nearing and the tide is not going in favor of BJP. Few People feel that Vasundhara Raje has not delivered enough and few are happy. Which few is majority is what we will see in the assembly elections in November. That will have big impact on the Lok Sabha Elections as well. My feeling says that BJP will lose it badly this time and I see BJP at 16 and Congress at 9. This is a big fall from 25 seats. The regions where BJP will be losing will be Alwar, Ajmer and Mewar regions. These regions have their own problems which BJP has to pay for.

4. Madhya Pradesh: In this three-region state of Madhya Pradesh, last elections saw BJP winning 27 and INC winning only 2. This is another state which will be up for polls this year November. It has been always a strong state for BJP and has got good leaders. That 27 seats winning was a big achievement for BJP which they will not be able to achieve in the coming elections 2019. One of the reason being the farmers unrest. Always BJP has been winning this state since last 3 terms with very good majority. So, it’s going to be really interesting to watch how the results fare. With the news and data, I have got, I feel that BJP will come down big to 18 from 27 and INC will increase to 11 from 2. This is majorly due to the drop in the seats of BJP in Maha Koshal and Malwa regions. They will be able to maintain their 2014 tally in Madhya Bharat region.

Apart from this out of 2 seats in Goa, 1 each will go to INC and BJP. Other two union territories will both go to BJP. That’s how the Western India Elections Predictions looks like.

Till now from the three regions it now looks to be a very tight race as NDA is at 214 seats and UPA and others are at 203 seats. So out of the predicted 417 seats NDA has got 214 seats and UPA plus others gets 203 seats. That 203 seats includes all other independents and other smaller parties. What needs to be seen is how many will leave or stay with UPA or NDA. BJP as per the predictions made needs 60 more seats from the available 126 seats to come from Northern India.
This is really going to the last stage and we will all have that climax after 2 weeks! Next week am taking a break from the predictions and my North Indian Predictions for the remaining 126 seats will happen in two weeks’ time!

Till then, keep waiting…keep counting!

Published by Sriram

A Teacher trying to Learn new things and explore the world each day! Believe in Happiness by the virtue of sacrifice and forgiveness.

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